저자: 미상 · 외국인
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하워드 막스의 2022년 7월 메모 'I Beg To Differ'를 정리한 영상으로, 투자 성과를 위해서는 남들과 다르게 행동하고 2차적 사고를 해야 하며, 장기 관점을 유지해야 한다는 내용이다. [핵심 주제 1: 남과 다르게 행동하라] 1973~74년 오일쇼크 침체기에 S&P500이 47% 하락했고, 'Nifty 50' 우량주들도 큰 폭으로 하락했다. 막스는 대중적으로 인기 있는 자산은 가격이 과도해질 수 있다고 경고한다. 그는 소위 투자 불가능하다고 여겨진 증권에 투자해 꾸준히 수익을 냈다. [핵심 주제 2: 2차적 사고의 필요성] 평균 이상의 수익은 컨센서스와 다른 판단에서 나온다. 정량 정보는 누구나 아는 정보이므로 우위의 원천이 되지 못한다. 우위는 공표 수치의 의미 해석, 정성적 평가, 미래 예측 능력에서 나온다. [핵심 주제 3: 틀릴 용기] 위대한 투자는 대개 불편함에서 시작되며, 논란적이고 비관적인 자산에서 저가 매수 기회가 나온다. 능동 투자는 실패 가능성과 불가분이며, 평균 성과를 택할지 초과 성과를 택할지 선택해야 한다. [핵심 주제 4: 장기 투자자가 되라] 막스는 단기 금리·인플레이션·경기침체 전망을 신뢰할 수 없다고 본다. 1920년 이후 17번의 침체와 대공황, 전쟁, 팬데믹이 있었음에도 S&P500은 연평균 약 10.5% 수익을 냈다. 윌리엄 밀러의 말처럼 타이밍보다 시간이 부를 만든다는 견해를 제시한다. [리스크 및 조건] 부정적 사건이 예상되더라도 자산 가격에 반영되지 않았을 때만 위험을 줄이는 것이 정당하다는 조건이 붙는다. [출연자 전망] 영상 내 특정 자산에 대한 1~3개월 가격 방향 예측 발언은 없다.
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foreign 1973 to 74 the OPEC oil embargo and the resultant recession took the S P 500 Index down a total of 47 percent and many of the nifty 50 for which it had been thought that no price was too high did far worse hello the July 2022 Memo from the Legendary Super investor Howard Marks Mr Marx is co-founder and co-chairman of oak tree Capital Management the largest investor in distressed Securities worldwide he's also the best-selling author of investing and stock market related books some of which we have summarized on this channel his memos are extremely popular in the investing Community with none other than Mr Warren Buffett stating that he always looks forward to these memos the July 2022 memo is titled I beg to differ in this video let's take a look at the top four takeaways from this memo others can find this video as well and make sure to subscribe to receive next videos on these memos let's continue take away one investors must act different for above average return Mr Marx starts the memo by stating that in 1970s there were a set of companies referred to as nifty 50 that were considered unbeatable you can't be fired for buying IBM was one of the key statements of that era during 1973-74 there was a recession taking s p down by around 50 percent and many of the nifty 50 for which it had been thought that no price was too high did far worse falling from the peak PE ratios of 60 to 90 to multiples in the single digits thus their devotees lost almost all of their money in the stocks of companies that everyone knew were great this was Mr Mark's first chance to see what can happen to assets that are put on the pedestal of popularity later in 70s Mr Mark started investing in Securities considered uninvestable and which practically Nova knew about cared about or deemed desirable and he was making money steadily and safely he quickly recognized that his strong performance resulted in large part from precisely that fact I was investing in Securities that practically no one knew about cared about or deemed desirable he says this brought home the key money making lesson of efficient market hypothesis if you seek Superior investment results you have to invest in things that others haven't flocked to and cause to be fully valued in other words you have to do something different he believes that the route to Superior returns by necessity runs through unconventionality he shared a simple two by two Matrix on this topic in one of his 2006 memos in his view the consensus opinion of Market participants is baked into market prices thus if investors lack Insight that is superior to the average of the people who make up the consensus they should expect average performance he says you can't take same actions as everyone else and expect to outperform the bottom line of the above is you can't hope to earn above average returns if you don't Place active bets but if your active bets are wrong your return will be below average it's simple if you hope to distinguish yourself in terms of performance you have to depart from the pack but having Departed the difference will only be positive if your choice of strategies and tactics is correct and you are able to execute better take away two second level thinking is necessary for above average returns all active investors and certainly money managers hoping to earn a living are driven by the pursuit of superior Returns the basic idea behind second level thinking is summarized as follows in order to outperform your thinking has to be different and better in other words being right may be a necessary condition for investment success but it won't be sufficient you have to be more right than others which by definition means your thinking has to be different first level thinkers look for simple formulas and easy answers second level thinkers know that success in investing is the anti-thesis of simple and involves answering deeper questions such as what is the range of likely future outcomes what outcome do I think will occur what's the probability I'm right what does the consensus think how does my expectation differ from the consensus Mr Mark points out that readily available quantitative information with regard to the present cannot be the source of superior performance after all everyone has access to this type of information and nowadays all investors should know how to manipulate data and run screens instead their superiority has to come from their ability to do three things number one better understand the significance of the published numbers number two better assess the qualitative aspects of the company and number three better Divine the future obviously none of these things can be determined with certainty measured empirically or processed using Surefire formulas unlike present-day quantitative information there's no Source you can turn to for easy answers they all come down to judgment or insight second level thinkers who have better judgment are likely to achieve Superior returns and those who are less insightful are likely to generate inferior performance take away 3 daring to be different also implies daring to be wrong most great Investments begin in discomfort the things most people feel good about Investments where the underlying premise is widely accepted the recent performance has been positive and the Outlook is Rosy are unlikely to be available at bargain prices rather Bargains are usually found among things that are controversial that people are pessimistic about and that have been performing badly of late Mr Marx takes this idea a step further moving from daring to be different to its related implication daring to be wrong most investment books are about how to be right not the possibility of being wrong and yet the would-be active investor must understand that every attempt at success by necessity carries with it the chance for failure the two are absolutely inseparable every investor has to make a conscious decision about which course to follow pursue Superior returns at the risk of coming in behind the back or hug the consensus position and ensure average performance Mr Marx shares the story about a fortune cookie he received 40 to 50 years ago the message inside was simple the cautious seldom ER or write great poetry he proceeds to share but what does the fortune mean that you should be cautious because cautious people seldom make mistakes or that you shouldn't be cautious because cautious people rarely accomplish great things the fortune can be read both ways and both conclusions seem reasonable thus the key question is which meaning is right for you as an investor do you like the idea of avoiding error or would you rather try for superiority you can follow either path but clearly not both simultaneously unconventional behavior is the only road to Superior investment results but it isn't for everyone in addition to Superior skill successful investing requires the ability to look wrong for a while and survive some mistakes thus each person has to assess whether he's temperamentally equipped to do these things and whether his circumstances will allow it when the chips are down and the market makes him look wrong as it invariably will you can't have it both ways and as in so many aspects of investing there's no right or wrong only right or wrong for you take away four be a long-term player Mr Marx mentions that the questions he's asked these days are overwhelmingly around the outlook for inflation the extent to which federal reserve will raise interest rates to bring it under control and whether doing so will produce a soft Landing or a recession and if the latter how bad for him all the discussions surrounding inflation raids and recession falls under the same heading the short term and his views on the short term are we can't know much about the short-term future or I should say we can't dependably know more than the consensus if we have an opinion about the short term we can't have much confidence in it if we reach a conclusion there's not much we can do about it most investors can't and won't meaningfully revamp their portfolios based on such opinions we really shouldn't care about the short term after all we are investors not Traders it's the last point that matters most but the question is whether you agree or not when asked whether we are heading towards the recession Mr Mark's usual answer is that whenever we are not in a recession we are heading towards one the question is when he believes we'll always have Cycles which means recessions and recoveries will always lie ahead does the fact that there's a recession ahead mean we should reduce our investments or alter our portfolio allocation I don't think so since 1920 there have been 17 recessions as well as one Great Depression a World War and several smaller Wars multiple periods of worry about global destruction and now a pandemic and yet the S P 500 has returned about 10 and a half percent a year on average over that century plus would investors have improved their performance by getting in and out of the market to avoid those problem spots or would doing so have diminished it Mr Marx believes in Mr Bill Miller's formulation that it's time not timing that leads to real wealth accumulation because most investors would be better off ignoring short-term considerations if they want to enjoy the benefits of long-term compounding two of the six tenets of oak trees investment philosophy say a we don't base our investment decisions on macro forecasts and B we are not Market timers the possibility or even the fact that a negative event lies ahead isn't in itself a reason to reduce risk investors should only do so if the event lies ahead and it isn't appropriately reflected in asset prices but there's usually no way to know it no strategy and no level of Brilliance will make every quarter or every year a successful one Mr Marx gives a wonderful analogy if you wait at a bus stop long enough you're guaranteed to catch a bus but if you run from bus stop to bus stop you may never catch a bus for now that's it from us hope you enjoyed and learned from this video smash that like button and subscribe to receive follow videos on Howard marks memos
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