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결론: 하워드 막스는 금리 인하 시대가 끝나고 고금리·고인플레가 장기화되는 '제3의 변화(Sea Change)' 국면이 왔다고 보며, 과거 40년의 수익 환경은 재현되기 어렵다고 주장한다. [핵심 주장과 근거] - 1978년 고수익채 투자 등장으로 '위험 대비 수익' 사고방식이 자리잡았다. 미국 하이일드 채권 시장은 약 20억 달러에서 약 1.2조 달러로 성장했다. - 1979~1980년 폴 볼커의 기준금리 20% 인상으로 인플레가 1983년경 약 3%까지 잡혔고, 이후 40년간 금리 하락기가 이어져 자산 가격 상승을 견인했다. - 금리 하락은 자산 밸류에이션(PER, 기업가치, 캡레이트)을 끌어올리고 레버리지 투자에 유리했으며, 이는 '움직이는 보도' 위를 걷는 것에 비유된다. [금리 환경 전환] - 2021년 코로나 이후 과잉 유동성과 재정 지원으로 인플레가 발생했고, 연준이 이를 일시적이라 본 뒤 2022년 3월부터 급격한 금리 인상이 시작됐다. - 금리 상승으로 주식·채권 가격이 동반 하락했고, 기술·소프트웨어·암호화폐 등 2020~2021년 강세 자산이 가장 크게 밀렸다. - 2022년 S&P500은 첫 9개월간 하락폭이 지난 세기 연간 최대 하락에 근접했다. [향후 전망과 조건/리스크] - 금리는 당분간 높게 유지될 가능성이 크며, 기준금리 평균은 0~2%보다 2~4%에 가깝다고 본다. - 연준은 인플레 심리가 꺾였다는 확신 전까지 완화로 돌아서기 어렵고, 금리 방향은 인플레 통제 진척에 좌우된다. - 12~18개월 내 경기침체가 사실상 기정사실로 여겨지며, 이에 따라 기업 실적 악화와 부채 디폴트율 상승이 우려된다. 다만 디폴트율 예측은 불확실하다. - 은행의 미매각 브리지론 손실로 인수금융이 위축될 수 있다. - 투자 환경이 과거 30~40년과 다르므로 과거 성공 전략이 앞으로도 통한다고 가정하면 안 된다. 신용상품에서 안정적 수익을 얻을 수 있게 되어 위험자산 의존도를 낮출 수 있다. [출연자 전망] - 막스는 저금리·고성장 시대의 종료를 전제로 보수적 관점을 유지한다. 개별 종목 및 지수에 대한 구체적 가격 목표나 방향 언급은 없다.
다듬은 글
day so let's start with the sea change that was the big headline from your report it's how you you kicked off your memo you said 53 years in your investing career there have been three sea changes and we are in one of them what does that mean well a sea change is a major transformation of the environment a complete change in attitudes Etc and I suspect that we that we may be at the beginning of one hi everyone welcome to clone compounding where our mission is to learn from others in order to achieve Financial Independence in today's video let's look at a short summary from the latest Memo from the Legendary Super investor Howard Marks Mr Marx is co-founder and co-chairman of oak tree Capital Management the largest investor in distress Securities worldwide he's also a best-selling author of investing in stock market related books some of which we have summarized on this channel his memos are extremely popular in the investing Community with none other than Warren Buffet stating that he always looks forward to these memos the December 2022 memo is titled C change the memo hints at a third sea change that Mr Mark says has arrived sea change means a complete transformation a radical change of Direction in attitude and goals in this video let's take a look at the top five takeaways from this memo before we start please smash that like button so others can find this video as well and make sure to subscribe to receive next videos on these memos let's continue Mr Marks starts the memo by saying that in my 53 years in the investment world I have seen a number of economic Cycles pendulum swings manias and panics Bubbles and crashes but I remember only two real sea changes I think we may be in the midst of a third one let's look at the top takeaways take away one sea change one looking at high yield bonds with risk versus return perspective when Mr Mark started his career a security with a rating of single B was described by Moody's as failing to possess the characteristics of a desirable investment non-investment grade balance those rated Double B and Below were off limits to fiduciaries since proper financial behavior mandated the avoidance of risk for this reason what soon became known as high yield bonds couldn't be sold as new issues but in the mid-1970s Michael Milken and a few others had the idea that it should be possible to issue now non-investment grade bonds and to invest in them prudently if the bonds offered enough interest to compensate for the risk of default in 1978 I started investing in these Securities the bonds of perhaps America's riskiest public companies and I was making money steadily and safely in other words whereas prudent Bond investing had previously consisted of buying only presumably safe investment grade bonds investment managers could now prudently buy bonds of almost any quality as long as they were adequately compensated for the attendant risk the U.S high-yield Bond Universe amounted to about 2 billion when I first got involved and today it stands at roughly 1.2 trillion however the most important aspect of this change didn't relate to high yield bonds or to private Equity but rather to the adoption of a new investor mentality now risk wasn't necessarily avoided but rather considered relative to the return and hopefully born intelligently this new risk return mindset was critical in the development of many new types of Investments such as distress debt mortgage-backed Securities structured credit and private Lending it's no exaggeration to say today's investment World Bears almost no resemblance to that of 50 years ago young people joining the industry today would likely be shocked to learn that back then investor didn't think in risk and return terms now that's all we do Ergo a sea change takeaway two c change two low declining interest rate environment at roughly the same time big changes were underway in the macroeconomic world it all started with the OPEC oil embargo of 1973 and 74 which caused the price of a barrel of oil to jump from roughly 24 to almost 65 dollars in less than a year this Spike raised the cost of many goods and ignited Rapid inflation because the U.S private sector in the 1970s was much more unionized than it is now and many collective bargaining agreements contained automatic cost of living adjustments Rising inflation trigger wage increases which exacerbated inflation and led to yet more wage increases this seemingly Unstoppable upward spiral Kindle strong inflationary expectations which in many cases became self-fulfilling as is their nature the year over increase in the Consumer Price Index which was three percent in 1972 Rose to 11 by 1974 receded to the range of about six to nine percent for four years and then rebounded to 11 in 1979 and 13.5 in 1980.
there was great despair as no relief was forthcoming from inflation Fighting Tools it took the opponent of Paul volcker as fed chairman in 1979 and the determination he showed in raising the FED funds rate to 20 percent in 1980. to get inflation under control and extinguish inflationary psychology as a result inflation was backed down to roughly three percent by the end of 1983.
folker's success in bringing inflation under control allowed the FED to reduce the FED funds rate to the high single digits and keep it there over the rest of 1980s before dropping into the mid single digits in the 1990s his actions ushered in a declining interest rate environment that prevailed for four decades Mr Marx considers this the second sea change he has seen in his career the long-term decline in interest rates have began just a few years after the Advent of risk return thinking and he views the combination of the two as having given rise to a The Rebirth of optimism among investors B the pursuit of profit through aggressive investment vehicles and see an incredible four decades for the stock market what a period there can be no greater Financial investment career luck than to have participated in it while there can be many reasons for the spectacular return but Mr Marx believes that the four years of declining interest rates probably prayed the greatest role of all take away three impact of declining interest rates Mr Mark goes on to share a master class in what happens when or what are the effects of declining interest rates first they accelerate the growth of the economy by making it cheaper for consumers to buy on credit and for companies to invest in facilities equipment and inventory they provide a subsidy to borrowers at the expense of lenders and Savers that reduce business costs of capital and thus increase their profitability the increase the fair value of assets the theoretical value of an asset is defined as a discounted present value of its future cash flows that lower the discount rate the higher the present value thus as interest rates fall valuation parameters such as p e ratios and Enterprise values rise and cap rates on real estate stickline they reduce the prospective returns investor demand from Investments they're considering thereby increasing the prices they'll pay this can be seen most directly in the bond market everyone knows its rates down price is up but it works throughout the investment World by lifting asset prices they create a wealth effect that makes people feel richer and thus more willing to spend finally by simultaneously increasing asset values and reducing borrowing costs they produce a bonanza for those who buy assets using leverage Mr Mark shares a simple example or analogy to convey his view of the effect of prolonged decline in interest rates at some airports there's a moving walk away and standing on it makes life easier for the very traveler but if rather than stand still on it you walk at your normal Pace you move ahead rapidly that's because your rate of travel over the ground is the sum of the speed at which you're walking plus the speed at which the walkway is moving that's what he thinks happened to the investor over the last 40 years they enjoyed the growth of the economy and the companies they invested in as well as a resulting increase in the value of their ownership Stakes but in addition they were on a moving walkway carried Along by the declining interest rates the results have been great but I doubt many people fully understand where they came from it seems to him that a significant portion of all the money investors made over this period resulted from the tail Wing generated by the massive drop in interest rates he considers it nearly impossible to overstate the influence of declining interest rates over the last four decades takeaway four that was then this is now of course all of the above flipped in the last year or so most importantly inflation began to rear its head in the early 2021 when our emergence from isolation permitted too much money saving some Mass with the people shutting at home including distributions from the massive covid-19 relief programs to chase too few goods and services because the FED deemed the inflation transitory it continued its policies of low interest rates and quantitative easing keeping money loose these policies further simulated demand especially for Homes at a time when it didn't need stimulating inflation worsened as 2021 wore on and late in the year the FED acknowledged that it wasn't likely to be short-lived thus the feds started reducing its purchase of bonds in November and began raising interest rates in March 2022 kicking off one of the quickest rate hiking Cycles on record stock market which had ignored inflation and Rising interest rates for all most of 2021 began to fall around the year end from there events followed a predictable course while the events in the real world fluctuate between pretty good and not so good investor sentiment often Koreans from Flawless to hopeless as events that were previously viewed as benign come to be interpreted as catastrophic higher interest rates led to higher demanded Returns the stocks that had seemed fairly valued when interest rates were minimal fell to lower p e ratios that that were commensurate with higher rates likewise the massive increase in interest rates had its usually depressing effect on bond prices falling stock and bond prices caused fomo to dry up and fear of loss to replace it the Market's decline gathered Steam and the things that had done best in 2020 and 2021 tech software spags cryptocurrencies now did the worst exogenous events that have the ability to undercut the Market's mood especially in tougher times and in 2022 the biggest search event was Russia's invasion of Ukraine the Ukraine conflict reduced supplies of grain and oil and gas adding to inflationary pressures since the tire monetary policies were designed to slow the economy investors focus on the difficulty the FED would likely have achieving a soft landing and has a strong likelihood of a recession the anticipated effect of that recession on earnings came from the Investor's Spirit thus the fall of s p 500 over the first nine months of 2022 rivaled the greatest full year declines of the last century the expectation of a recession also increased the fear of rising debt defaults new security issuance became difficult having committed to fund buyouts in a lower interest rate environment Banks found themselves with many billions of dollars of hung Bridge loans unsalable at par these loans have saddled the banks with big losses these hung loans forced Banks to reduce the amounts they could commit to New Deals making it harder for buyers to finance acquisitions the progression of events described above caused pessimism to take over from optimism the market characterized by easy money and upbeat borrowers and asset owners disappeared now lenders and buyers held better cards according to Mr Marks we are witnessing a complete reversal of the conditions that prevailed in 2021 and late 2020 and throughout the 2009-2019 period and for much of the last 40 years take away 5 interest rates likely to remain higher for longer according to Mr Mark's inflation and interest rates are highly likely to remain the dominant consideration influencing the investment environment for the next several years while history shows that no one can predict inflation it seems likely to remain higher than what we became used to after the global financial crisis at least for a while the course of interest rates will largely be determined by the fed's progress in bringing inflation under control as per Mr Marks the buyers who have driven the s p 500's recent 10 Rally from the October low have been motivated by their beliefs that a inflation is easing B the FED will soon pivot from restrictive policy back towards stimulative and see interest rates will return to the lower levels D A recession will be averted or it will be modest and brief and E the economy and markets will return to the heydays in contrast here's what Mr Marx thinks the underlying causes for today's inflation will probably Abate as relief swollen savings are spent and as Supply catches up with the demand while some recent inflation readings have been encouraging in this regard the labor market is still very tight wages are rising and the economy is growing strongly before declaring Victory on inflation the FED will need to be convinced not only that inflation has settled near the two percent Target but also that the inflationary psychology has been extinguished thus while the FED appears likely to slow the pace of its interest rate increases it's unlikely to return to stimulative policies anytime soon the FED has to maintain credibility or regain it after having claimed for too long that inflation was transitory it can't appear to be inconstant by becoming stimulative too soon after having turned restrictive these are the reasons why he he believes that the base interest rate over the next several years is more likely to average between two to four percent rather than between zero to two percent of course there are counter arguments but for him the bottom line is that highly stimulative rates are likely not in the cards for the next several years buying a serious recession from which we need rescuing and that would have ramifications of its own what we do know is that inflation and interest rates are higher today than they have been for the 40 for the last 40 years regardless he thinks things will generally be less Rosy in the Years immediately ahead a recession in the next 12 to 18 months appears to be foregone conclusion among economists and investors that recession is likely to coincide with deterioration of corporate earnings and investor psychology credit market conditions for new financing seems unlikely to soon become as accommodative as they were in the recent years no one can foretell how high the debt default rate will rise or how long it will stay there it's worth noting in this context that the annual default rate on high yield bonds average three percent from 1978 to 2009 but it unusually low two percent under the just right conditions that prevailed for the decade 2010 to 2019.
in fact there were only one year in that decade in which defaults reached the historical average lastly there is a forecast he's confident of interest rates aren't about to decline by another 2000 basis points or two percent from here as Mr Marx has said many times we never know where we are going but we ought to know where we are the bottom line is that in many ways conditions at this moment are overwhelmingly different from and mostly less favorable than those of the post-global financial crisis climate these changes may be long lasting or they may Veer off over time but in his view we're unlikely to quickly see the same optimism and ease that Mark the post-global financial crisis period we have gone from the low return world of 2010 to 2021 to full return world and in and it may become more so in the near term investors can now potentially get solid returns from credit instruments meaning they no longer have to rely as heavily on riskier investments to achieve their overall return Target lenders and bargain hunters face much better prospects in this change environment than they did from 2010 to 2021 and importantly if you grant that the environment is and may continue to be very different from what it was over the last 30 years and most of the last 40 years it should follow that the investment strategies that worked best over those period may not be the ones that outperform in the years ahead That's The Siege and she's talking about for now that's it from us hope you enjoyed and learned from this video smash that like button and subscribe to receive the follow-up videos on Howard Mark's memos thanks for watching foreign
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