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이 방송은 미국 시장 마감 후 반도체 흐름, 채권 금리, 섹터별 움직임을 점검하고, 이어서 AI 투자와 중간선거 결과가 기술 섹터에 줄 수 있는 영향을 다룬다. 방송 진행자는 나스닥 종합지수가 약 0.8% 상승해 하루 종일 강세 구간에 있었던 반면, 다우는 약 200포인트 하락했다고 전했다. 기술 섹터(XLK)는 1.3% 올라 가장 강한 섹터였고, 커뮤니케이션 서비스와 산업재도 약 1% 이상 상승했다. 반면 10월 이후 상대적으로 강했던 필수소비재, 에너지, 헬스케어는 하락했다. 30년물 국채 금리는 5.32%, 10년물은 4.95%로 각각 6bp 상승했으며, 방송은 AI 주식이 오를 때 금리도 함께 움직이는 상관관계가 이어지고 있다고 설명했다. 반도체 지수(SOX)는 10월 6일 고점 대비 20% 넘게 하락해 약세장 구간에 다시 들어갔고, 200일 이동평균선 아래에 머물러 있어 아직 추세 전환을 확인하기 어렵다는 평가가 나왔다. Piper Sandler의 Michael Kaneritz는 고베타 기술주 중심의 'AI 베타 버블'이 이미 정점을 지났을 가능성을 제기했다. 그는 기술 섹터의 5년 이익 성장률 컨센서스가 43%로 2000년대 초보다 높고, 기대치가 지나치게 높아져 있어 실적 상회가 어려워질 수 있다고 지적했다. 또한 AI 채택 기업 중 구체적 수치를 제시한 곳이 적어 투자수익률(ROI) 확인이 더 필요하다고 언급했다. 중간선거와 관련해서는 베팅 시장이 민주당 우위 가능성을 이미 상당 부분 반영했다고 보았으며, 향후 2028년 대선 결과에 따른 세제 및 규제 전망이 투자 심리에 영향을 줄 수 있다고 설명했다. AMD의 3분기 실적은 매출 133억 8천만 달러, 조정 주당순이익 92센트로 예상치를 웃돌았고, 데이터센터 매출은 97% 성장해 전체의 64%를 차지했다. 장 마감 후 주가는 약 6~7% 상승했다. 패트릭 무어헤드는 AMD가 PC 시장 둔화 우려에서 어느 정도 벗어났다고 평가했으며, 에이전트형 AI 확산으로 GPU 대비 CPU 수요가 늘고 있다고 설명했다. 다만 고객사 자금 조달, 지분 희석, 숙련 인력 부족, 데이터센터 규제 가능성 등은 여전히 리스크로 남아 있다고 정리했다. 매트 액스(에버코어 ISI)는 하원 결과가 빠르게 나올 것으로 보고, 데이터센터 규제는 연방 차원보다 텍사스, 조지아, 오하이오 등 주 단위에서 더 크게 전개될 가능성이 높다고 전망했다. 이 밖에 베이크드 바이 멜리사가 타깃과 협업해 홈베이킹 미니 컵케이크 키트를 출시한다는 소식이 소개되었고, 맥도날드(3분기 실적)·퀄컴(데이터센터 사업 확장)·ADP 고용 보고서 등 주요 일정이 안내되었다. 본 요약은 방송 내용에 근거한 정보 정리이며 투자 권유가 아니다. #AMD #반도체 #AI투자 #중간선거 #나스닥 #데이터센터 #시장분석
다듬은 글
Welcome to Market Domination. I'm Jake Conley, broadcasting from our headquarters in New York. The closing bell has just rung. Let's take a look at how the day ended in the stock market, with our own Jared Bleekery. Jared, what are we seeing today? So, we're seeing growth in the semiconductor sector , let's go to the Wi-Fi interactive panel and see what happened today.
An interesting trend has emerged: when the technology sector rises, the Dow falls. This is what you see on your screens now. As you can see, it lost about 200 points, but the situation is improving a bit . Here's the NASDAQ composite index, it's up about 0.8%. You see him in the "green zone" virtually , well, all day long.
The S&P 500 rose slightly less, but was also in the red all day. And the Russell 2000 index. Small-cap companies also showed growth, although they have sagged a bit in recent hours. Now let's look at the bond market. First, let's check the VIX index , because it has been jumping sharply recently. I'll show you the schedule in five days.
You see, just a few days ago it was reaching 22. So that's an improvement over the volatility we've seen in the market lately. Regarding the bond market: the yield on 30-year notes increased by 6 basis points. This is a fairly significant jump to 5.32, and the 10-year to 4.95. This is another 6 basis point move.
We observe this pattern: when AI stocks rise, like today. We see bond yields rise, and when they fall, yields also fall. So the close correlation persists today. The direction of movement does not matter. So let's take a look at the heat maps. In the large-cap sector, XLK, the tech sector, grew the most—by 1.3%.
XLC is communication services as well as industry. They all grew by about 1% or more. All of them outperformed the S& P 500. Instead, companies or sectors that had shown the best results in the market since the beginning of October were in the red. These are mostly defensive assets: essential goods, energy, healthcare—they are “red” today.
You can add materials and other things here. But let's look at the NASDAQ 100. Here's Nvidia. Note, Nvidia is the largest company in the solar system. Again , let's quickly check the market cap. It just falls short of $5 trillion. During October, it subsided quite significantly. Not as much as some other chipmaker stocks , but still.
Apple fell about 2% after the report. Microsoft grew by two to two and a half percent. Amazon is up 2%, SpaceX is up three and a half. Broadcom by 3%, Meta by 2%. So, many large companies, not all of them, but many of them, and most of the tech sector are trading in the green today. Here is a table of semiconductors.
It's very nice to see that the situation is leveling out. You know I follow the SOX index. Let's take a look at the indicators since the beginning of the year with certain levels. 10,600. So it's still teetering on the edge. We saw a nasty sell-off. Yesterday we re- entered a bear market relative to the October 6 high.
So it fell by more than 20% and is still hovering around this long-term line that served as support in the middle of the year, and has not yet decisively broken it, although it is still slightly below the 200- day moving average. So he is holding on with all his strength. I don't think the semiconductor sector is out of the risk zone.
We need confident growth on a large scale, and although we see "green" today, it hasn't actually happened. We can also look at software, it is not as optimistic as the semiconductor sector . Shopify, another reporting story , down 8%. Thompson Reuters fell 10 %. But there are also winners. Oracle grew by five to six percent.
Here is the schedule from the beginning of the year for them. You can see that they have been gradually decreasing over the last few months . It's not a crash, but think about the high that was...when was that? More than a year ago. Here is a two-year schedule. They've lost a lot of money since Larry Ellison was the richest man in the world.
I know we have other topics to discuss. Jake, let me know if we have time. Jared, we definitely have time, and I want to develop the point you made a little deeper. We saw this deep " red" sell-off on the NASDAQ on Friday . We watched the situation change in the first half of this week. How should investors assess this reversal and will it be sustainable?
I look at seasonality, and here's what I'll tell you. So, there are two points here. We are entering the best month of the year, statistically, since the midterm elections. This is November. We are entering the best three months. We are entering the best six months. So by June, historically speaking , we should have a fairly easy period.
But the problem is that we are also supposedly in the best eight days of the year . This includes the five days before the midterm elections, whatever they are. and then three days after. However, we fell in those five days. So, this is a bit of a strange anomaly. The last time this happened was in 1994.
So it doesn't happen often, but maybe we're in a different situation. So I think it will be very revealing. I really want to see where we end up tomorrow after the election. I don't necessarily think it matters who wins and who loses. What matters is what the market thinks about it. And the very fact of having a result will eliminate uncertainty.
So I think tomorrow's close, Wednesday's close , will be key here. I want to see semiconductors close above the 200-day moving average. I want to see other technical indicators align, and by the end of these eight days that I talked about, by Friday, I want to see the S&P 500 turn positive. Jared, thanks for your analysis, as always , sir.
We appreciate it very much. We will certainly be keeping an eye on these midterm elections and what they mean for the market. Let's focus on the technology sector. We are now seeing the NASDAQ recover as we await reports from new players in the AI space. Michael Kaneritz joins us with his analysis of technology trading.
He is the chief investment strategist at Piper Sandler. Michael, thank you for joining us. It's always nice to see you here. That's where I want to start with you, Michael. You make the argument in one of your recent notes that the AI bubble based on speculative companies seems to have already burst.
Is what we have seen in recent weeks a healthy rotation back towards quality? How would you describe it? Yes, to be clear, I meant, as you said, "beta bubble." And so I look specifically at the relative performance of the highest beta stocks in the technology sector of the S&P 500. And it wasn't until the late 1990s that you saw anything like what we've seen in the last 15 months or so.
So if you look at the chart, these companies with the highest betas outperformed the market by 100% last year. And this is a balanced basket of stocks. It's not just Micron, SanDisk, or Nvidia. There was very broad-based growth, even higher performance in small- cap stocks. And I believe that this was the beginning of the AI development trend, which coincided with the beginning of the expansion of macroeconomic indicators and profits in mid-2025.
After about 15 months, we saw earnings growth expectations rise significantly. We have seen very good macro data, especially in cyclical indicators such as the ISM manufacturing index, and over the past 6 months many stocks— about 65%—have received upward revisions across the market. So it's been a very good 15 months of fundamental and macroeconomic expansion.
That's when you usually get these big moves in betas, and obviously this cycle has been amplified by the development of AI. Our view is that we have reached the peak in this story, and that the sell-off we have seen since June—while it has obviously been quite dramatic—is the beginning of a trend where market leadership will shift to higher quality companies; this also means higher quality companies within the AI sector or in other parts of the market.
I think the peak of speculation is already behind us. Michael, let's go back to the Magnificent Seven reports we received last week. One of the stories we've seen in these companies is that while their AI divisions have actually done very well—AWS at Amazon, Google Cloud at Alphabet—the so -called core businesses (that's e- commerce at Amazon, search at Google) have suffered, and investors have gotten a little scared about that .
How do we now define a good quarter for these companies? And isn't part of the problem precisely how high expectations are before each quarter's reporting? Yes, I think you hit the spot. Expectations—and whether the outcome exceeds those expectations—are set extremely high today, especially in the technology sector, and the Magnificent Seven stocks are certainly among those setting that level.
Wall Street. The consensus forecast for 5-year earnings growth for the technology sector is currently 43%. We've never seen a number even close to this. Even in 2000, this figure was only about 25%. So, I'm not saying that the revenue growth in the AI part of these businesses won't remain quite healthy, but can we continue to beat expectations?
A year ago, this growth rate, which is 43 today, was at around 20. And unless you think these expectations will continue to grow rapidly, which I don't, Then, I think it will be very difficult to continue to outperform these figures , as we have seen this reporting season. So maybe it's time to adjust expectations a bit?
We've seen a kind of explosive growth of these companies. Do we need to lower the bar a little? Well, we've certainly been watching this since June. You know, the questions we get from investors: will this continue, or maybe the "quality trading" that has been significantly ahead of the market since June has already exhausted itself?
And is it time to return to these higher beta stocks? Our recommendation is that it's perfectly fine to own some of these cyclical and riskier assets, but in this basket we would definitely favor profitable companies that continue to generate strong free cash flow, which was obviously a concern. So, there has been a significant reassessment of everything , from the "Magnificent Seven" to the AI sector.
And , in fact, the entire market as a whole, market multipliers. A year ago we were at 23. Today we are just below 19 . So, there was a major reassessment. This is partly due to the capital expenditure on AI and the fact that we are now reaching peak growth levels, and the profits of many of these companies will not be sustainable.
This is also partly due to significant fluctuations in oil prices, interest rates, and Fed forecasts for this year since late February. Michael, I understand your argument about capital expenditure. This is a valid observation . And one of the stories that we're seeing, one of the questions that investors are really starting to ask, is the question of return on investment (ROI).
When will we see a return on all the money spent? How does your team assess what this will look like? When will we be able to get answers to this and what will it mean for companies that are investing almost a trillion dollars in this direction this year. Yes. This issue becomes more important when you finance capital expenditures through borrowing or issuing shares, compared to a year or two ago when these funds came from the free cash flow from these companies' operating activities .
So that in itself creates more anxiety among investors and creates a situation where they want to see results right away. So, one of the things we're looking at is AI adoption to see how many companies are using AI and what benefits they're getting. Analyzing earnings for the third quarter, and even for the previous second quarter, about 35% of companies said they were using AI and seeing some efficiency gains or revenue growth.
Few companies give specific figures. They mostly talk about it qualitatively . So I think we need to see much broader adoption and clearer data, so that companies give us concrete numbers that their margins are increasing or that they are seeing an increase in transaction volume. And we, you know, are seeing that in some companies, but the process is quite slow, and I think that also relates to some of the employment concerns.
If AI adoption and real meaningful benefits are slow to emerge, then I don't think investors should be too concerned that we will see such a weakening of employment due to AI adoption. Michael, I have to ask you about the main news of the day, which is, of course, the midterm elections here in the United States.
When you look at the tech sector, we all know the odds of how things will end up in the House and Senate today. We are, of course, also following all those ballots and votes across the country regarding data centers in several states. Could what we see tonight really impact this tech sector? Where exactly do you expect to see the impact of these midterm elections on this sector going forward?
Yes, I would say that the results of this election were probably factored in by the market earlier than any election in history. And I say that because now we have very, you know, betting markets that have become quite popular and they are well developed. Even compared to past elections, there has been a lot more data and transparency that these betting markets create , giving us better probabilities of potential outcomes, especially where we know the polls aren't very accurate.
Therefore, I believe that the market has already factored in a fairly high chance of a Democratic victory. And the question is, will they get, say, 51 or 52 seats and have only a slim majority, or will they be able to win even 54 seats in the Senate? And I think if that were the outcome, the reaction would be more negative as investors extrapolate that concern to the 2028 election, where we're likely to see higher tax rates, possibly higher corporate taxes, if a Democrat becomes president .
So I think the magnitude of today's result will be as important as whether it leans toward Democrats or Republicans. Well, Michael, that will be the main result to watch tonight . Thank you, as always, for your time. We appreciate it. Good. Thank you. We'll get to AMD's latest results right after this break.
Heat. We are lighting it. here. Heat. Hey, Heat. Heat. Heat. AMD's third-quarter earnings reports have just come in . Let me state these numbers. Revenue was $13.38 billion . This is exceeding expectations. Adjusted earnings per share also beat analysts' estimates, coming in at 92 cents per share for the quarter compared to forecasts of 91 cents.
Adjusted operating margin for the third quarter was 29%. This is also better than the projected 28%. Stocks rise after the close of trading. To learn more, let's invite Patrick Moorhead. He is the founder , CEO, and chief analyst of More Insights and Strategy. Patrick, it's always nice to see you. Let's start with this.
You see the trading after the market close, the stock is up 6.3%, 6.5%. This is really the opposite of what we've seen with Intel. What is the reason for all the hype around AMD? What is your first impression of these numbers? Yes, I think they just exceeded all expectations. I'm even surprised that they only rose by 6-7% after the close of trading.
I mean, the data center segment grew by 97%, and this is 64% of all revenue. The Q4 forecast was $860 million higher than the market expected. And you know, the market just copied Intel's PC warning and applied it to AMD. And I think AMD just proved that it's a data center company that has a PC business.
Patrick, one of the things we've seen at Intel, and I want to pick up on this point you just made, is the weakness in PC sales, which has been very concerning to investors. In your report, you wrote, as you just said, that AMD was affected by some of these trends. Is this quarter proof that we should no longer perceive AMD this way?
Yes, I think so. This is final confirmation. First of all, uh, if you look at the revenue share, I said before, 64% of revenue, where Intel is mostly a PC business , and AMD, in the manufacturing aspect, in terms of substrates, collaborates with TSMC . And I think Case said they're managing their underpinnings pretty well , if you look at the projections.
I hope to gain more clarity during the report. exactly how they're doing here, but judging by the numbers, it looks like they've done everything right, they're truly a task completion machine. There have been a lot of questions surrounding this, and I think this finally closes the topic. Patrick, as you mentioned, in a few minutes we will hear a report from the executives of this company .
What will you pay attention to? Where do you want to see the clarity you just mentioned? What questions do you want to ask during this report? Yes, I would like to know what percentage of GPU revenue went to their latest and greatest Helios. This is a complete stand-off, but understanding it would be very instructive.
You know, there were analysts who said AMD wouldn't ship anything in the fourth quarter, and they're actually showing revenue from their newest Helios. And I think that's important. I also want to understand the situation better. I want to hear from Lisa and the company about everything related to the supply chain: how long have they booked the capacity for ?
How long can they continue at this pace? And I would like a little more detail, although they are more focused on data centers, how did they manage to avoid problems in the PC segment? That is, it fell, but not as much as expected. In fact, business grew on Ryzen Mobile, but declined compared to the previous quarter and was at the level of market forecasts , so why was there such a difference?
Did they receive other signals from OEMs? Maybe they just have a different PC business structure? How did they make such a prediction? Because it was a pretty good forecast that was more in line with what I think we all expected from the market. Patrick, you mentioned that as we move into the realm of agent-based AI, the larger number of agents increases the demands on CPUs.
Tell us what this might look like for AMD and what it would do for their business. Yeah, I mean, you can imagine. So, you know, when we first started with chatbots, well, about a year and a half ago, the ratio of GPUs to CPUs was about 10 to 1. And now there are some installations where there are two to four CPUs for every GPU.
And that means AMD could significantly triple its current business if it could secure supply. Venice is a competitive product that they currently have on the market. And I would really like to know the details about how things are going with this decision. But they have an even more competitive product called Verono, which is coming out now and offers six different versions of this chip to solve a variety of data center problems .
But the growth potential is simply enormous. And I find it ironic that just two years ago we were writing off CPUs as obsolete computing power, and now they are literally the engine of agent systems and growth in the semiconductor market. Patrick, we see this growth in the data center segment for AMD, but of course that doesn't take away all the issues around customer financing, share dilution, and rack supply.
This looks like a great quarter, but what are the remaining unresolved risks for AMD that they will have to work with going forward? Yes, I think financing their clients is always important. They are part of every advanced laboratory. They are present in almost every hyperscaler, both in the CPU and GPU realms .
This applies to every hyperscaler on CPU, and the ability to get funding brings us back to the macroeconomic discussion, which I think is primarily relevant to non-cloud services. I was very pleased with what we saw in Anthropic's S1 report, because before that there were only financial memes about the company never being able to make money.
The company is actually making money, which is good, and I think the only question about S1 Anthropic is how far and how quickly they can sustain those revenues, but the overall mood of the discussion has improved significantly. Patrick, last week in the G7 reports we saw not necessarily a reduction in capital spending by several companies, but some slowdown, perhaps a little less than we expected.
Is this a warning sign for AMD, or is it a problem that will perhaps arise in the longer term? Well, I think it's a pragmatic decision that some hyperscalers are making. I mean, we also shouldn't forget that they tripled, if not quadrupled, their capital expenditures, and I think investors are demanding a little more precision on that issue.
And this setback, in my opinion, is certainly not a unique challenge for AMD, it applies to the entire industry. And part of the slowdown that the AI sector is currently experiencing has been caused, essentially, by concerns about funding. That was this week, then we saw the Intel report, and everyone got really worried about high-performance semiconductors , but I think the report and AMD's projections show that this is not a general slowdown or a cause for concern.
Listen, these semiconductors and the whole ecosystem are taking off on a rocket that we've never seen before. You mentioned risks. One point I didn't mention—it's even skilled workers, right? There is a company like Terraab, which came out of SpaceX, they lure electricians and specialists who know how to build facilities for money, taking them away from the already scarce market, where it is necessary to build not only factories, but also data centers.
And that's one of the reasons why everyone is looking at the election to understand what it might mean for a potential rollback. I think, now, regarding the candidates who are expected to win, the maximum that we face is a decline of 7–10% if the new government decides to introduce a complete ban or moratorium on the construction of data centers.
And, unfortunately, this has turned into a political game, even though it leads to an increase in wages among skilled workers. But we'll probably have to wait until the end of the night to see what the results will be . Patrick, this will definitely be worth watching when the polls start closing in about an hour and a half.
As always, sir, thank you for your time. We appreciate it very much. Thank you. Next—how the results of today's midterm elections could affect the markets. This will be next in the Market Domination Overtime program. Heat. Stop moving. Stocks historically rise after US midterm elections, but with the future of AI at stake, could tonight's results pose risks to the market rally?
Matthew Ax, senior strategist at Evercore ISI, will tell us more about this . Matt, we're glad to see you here. Thank you for joining us. I want to start with this . There is about an hour and a half left before the first polling stations close and we start receiving preliminary results. What will you be watching for in these early hours to understand the overall direction of tonight?
Well , thank you for inviting me. I think the clearest early signals will come from some of the House races , starting with South Carolina and Indiana, and then spreading to a large number of races pretty quickly. I think it's seven races in Florida and three more in Virginia. I think they will give a clear signal pretty quickly about where the House of Representatives is headed.
I expect this signal to indicate the transition of the House under Democratic control. But I think we'll have to wait a little longer to get clarity on the Senate , as well as key gubernatorial races that are important for data center development. In many of these states, polls don't close until 8 or 9 p.m., and counting votes in some of them could take some time.
So it's entirely possible that we'll only get clarity in the morning hours. Matt, as you noted, one of the issues we're following is data center legislation, referendums, and anything else that's up for vote across the country. It seems, according to our latest data, 41 such measures have been put to the vote across the country.
Depending on tonight's results , what do you think the impact will be on the data center sector? Where can we expect the biggest shifts and what will this mean for the development of the data center and AI industries in the next two years before the 2028 general election? So, look, I believe that for at least the next two years at the federal level , regardless of the results, there will remain a relative stalemate on this issue.
President Trump is clearly a strong supporter of this bill. I think it is unlikely that he will sign any legislation or take regulatory measures that will significantly slow down this process. So I think that over the next two years, the main political actions will take place at the state and local levels.
I think it's worth starting with Texas, given the huge scale of the projects planned there. We're also keeping an eye on Georgia and Ohio— states where governors will have a key influence on data center development in the future. There's also New Mexico, and I think that state has been somewhat overlooked because the Democratic candidate there is the clear favorite.
But I expect her to sign a pretty strict moratorium on the first day after she takes the oath. So , you know, these are the places I'm watching. And I think in terms of the balance of power...will this election mean that some states will tighten the rules while others will remain relatively lax? Will this be a general tightening of restrictions that will slow down development somewhat over the next two years?
There are a few states worth keeping an eye on . In Texas, of course, we have the race between Greg Abbott and Gina Hinojosa for governor. Approximately a quarter of the projected US capacity to be operational by 2030 will be in Texas. But, of course, these are not the only races. If we see some Democratic candidates who lean toward moratoriums and stricter policies start winning.
What should the data center industry do ? Do you slow down or just go somewhere else? Are you looking for more favorable conditions for construction elsewhere ? Listen, I think if the state legislative elections this cycle swing in the Democratic direction or in a direction that makes it harder to build in those states.
I still think there are other states that people will pay attention to. I think in Pennsylvania, Governor Shapiro is certainly on a winning streak. I think he will try to continue to follow a moderate and balanced approach . Virginia, as is well known, held its gubernatorial election last year, outside the primary cycle.
I think the governor there also wants to stay open for business. At the same time, introducing certain new checks. So I would say there will still be states that will be open. But things could be quite volatile next year as the sector will have to adjust and adapt to this. Matt, you point out in a recent memo that if there is a big Democratic victory, if we actually see such a confident result tonight, it could bring the political risks of 2028 closer.
Tell us how you look at it, what it means, and how it might unfold. Yes, definitely. Look, I think that as soon as the results of this election come in, the 2028 primaries will start almost immediately. I think candidates on both sides will make a lot of proposals regarding data centers and artificial intelligence.
I think you'll see some radical proposals, like a national moratorium on data centers. I think there will be a lot of discussion around tax issues related to artificial intelligence and data centers. I think there will be a lot of discussion about the use and implementation of artificial intelligence in sensitive areas like healthcare and law.
And I think we're going to move pretty quickly from a situation where the approach to AI and data centers was relatively hands-off to one where by 2028, whether Democrats or Republicans are in power, the country and the political system will start to come to grips with what all this means. And I think this will be a key topic for the next two years .
But look, there's going to be a certain spectrum of opinions here, right? I think the far left wing of the Democratic Party will have a loud voice in the primaries. But it remains to be seen whether they can go any further, or whether it will be someone more moderate, like Governor Shapiro, who ultimately gains support.
Matt, as you rightly imply, even if the Democrats win a landslide victory today, President Trump will still remain in the White House. The White House will still be controlled by Republicans. We can certainly expect investigations and budget disputes, but in terms of actual legislation, what will Democrats be able to do if they win in the next two years?
And that probably won't be possible until we get through the 2028 general election. So, look, I think Democrats want to make a statement right away on these accessibility issues. So, I think they'll pretty quickly focus on health insurance subsidies, focus on prescription drugs, focus on energy costs .
And I think the question is: Can they put together the right coalition on any of these issues to actually put something on the table for President Trump to sign into law? Even if Democrats have the Senate, you know, a significant portion of this legislation, not all of it, but a significant portion, will be subject to the 60- vote threshold in the Senate.
So, you know, they're going to have to work with Republicans to get a lot of this done. Um, you know, and these coalitions will form over time. But I would say that I, we warn our clients that, you know , as we saw this year with the housing bill, where there was a kind of unexpected strange coalition between President Trump and Elizabeth Warren to add a fairly restrictive measure to that housing bill.
You can see how things like this will start to happen again, especially if Senator Warren chairs the banking committee. So I would say, be prepared for these populist moments where Democrats will really try to unite with President Trump to try to get something done. Matt, I know this is an extremely busy night for you , so we really appreciate your time.
We appreciate it very much. Thank you for inviting me. Next up, Baked by Melissa just announced a big partnership. Next, we will talk to the founder and CEO of the company. Don't go anywhere. Heat. If you're a fan of Baked by Melissa's mini cupcakes , you'll soon be able to make them yourself at home.
The company is teaming up with Target to launch new baking kits. With us today is the co-founder and president of Baked by Melissa, Melissa Ben-Yishay. Melissa, thank you so much for joining us today. It's nice to see you here. I want to start with this cooperation. Why is the shift to home baking happening now and why is Target the right partner to enter this market?
At Baked by Melissa, we are focused on creating moments of joy, love, and human connection. And I think now is the perfect time because it's what everyone needs. And, frankly, that's what I feel most comfortable with. I want to have this set at home so I can make mini cupcakes with my kids. And this is an ideal activity.
It's like enjoying in moderation. Today, the "mini" format is more popular than ever. So, yes, we are very excited. Yes. I suppose there's a risk that someone baking at home using this kit might think the taste is a bit off, right? That “Baked by Jake” is not the same as “Baked by Melissa.” So how do you help the buyer recreate that magic and get the experience they expect?
Well, of course it's not the same, but it will be just as fun, maybe even more fun, because you're really enjoying the process of creating, and that's where the fun lies. But we have so many tips and tricks on the box, like just filling these tiny molds with batter, which is quite a painstaking task if you don't know the secrets.
And I have a great social media presence, so I'll be posting videos to teach people how to make mini cupcakes at home in their brand new baking pans from Target. Melissa. And you know what's the best part? That you can enjoy many cupcakes, not just one. That's the advantage of the mini format, right?
Melissa, you're launching this just before the holidays, of course. What do you see as success for yourself during the upcoming holiday season? What do you want to see when you pass this milestone and the new year arrives? We expect these sets to sell out at Target stores nationwide. Of course, we want our main product, our mini cupcakes, to reach many people's homes.
You go to bakedbymelissa.com. You can order the perfect gift for everyone on your list. We have a huge corporate gift program at Baked by Melissa, a great team of live people to help you with all your holiday gifting questions. This is what success looks like. It's simply about integrating Baked by Melissa into your life, both in the home kitchen and when you open your favorite gifts this holiday season.
Melissa, I wonder who the real target audience is here. Is this someone who is already committed to the Baked by Melissa brand? Is this a pre-holiday buyer, as you mentioned ? Is this someone who sees the brand for the first time while walking through Target? It's all together. It's me. This is a mom who has kids at home and wants to do something fun and different, giving them an experience they haven't had before.
This is for Baked by Melissa enthusiasts who love our product and want to bring it home to try making miniature treats, whether with this cupcake kit or perhaps just their own favorite recipes that they want to make into mini cupcakes. Melissa, quickly tell me some details. Yes. Let's say I take one of these sets.
I have a holiday party. You know, I want to cook them. What is my baking time? How long will this take me? What does this process look like? How easy were you able to make it ? It's very easy. That is, it's the same as buying a box of your favorite cake mix. Really, all you need are eggs, butter, and water, and everything else is in this kit.
We add two pastry bags: one to transfer the batter into the baking pan, the other to decorate the cupcakes once they come out of the oven and cool. It's very easy. Anyone can do it, and that's what makes it interesting. And, Melissa, finally, explain why Target was the right partner? Yes. You could reach out to many retailers.
Why did you feel Target was the right place to launch your product? You know what? I go to Target for almost everything. My kids love going to Target. I was at Target last holiday season, almost a year ago, and I saw their holiday baking section, and it hit me . Baked by Melissa should be at Target.
Target is my favorite store that truly saves me, whether I forgot my kids needed to get dressed for school tomorrow or I needed last-minute party supplies. Target is always around and I really feel a connection with our core Baked by Melissa customers, so it seemed like the right decision. Well, for everyone watching: the new Baked by Melissa line will be available at Target this holiday season.
Melissa, thank you for your time. I'm sure this is a busy season for you. So thank you for coming to us. Thank you. Next, we'll break down the top headlines to watch on Wall Street. In addition, we look to the future. Stay with us. Heat. Time to find out what to look out for on Wednesday, November 4th; Reporting season is in full swing, and we are learning more about the consumer sector and AI commerce.
Let's start with McDonald's, which will report third-quarter results before the markets open. The company is battling concerns about slowing sales in the US. Analysts warn that pricing errors could drive away customers, while stronger competition from rivals such as Burger King could erode market share.
Investors will be watching to see if McDonald's digital shares help bring back customers and whether inflation puts additional pressure on earnings. Qualcomm will report quarterly results after the markets close. Investors will be closely watching the chipmaker's outlook as it expands beyond smartphones into the rapidly growing data center market.
Qualcomm recently confirmed that Amazon is a major customer for their custom chips, bolstering confidence in achieving its goal of $5 billion in data center revenue by 2027. But rising memory costs and weaker demand for budget Android phones could negatively impact results. Finally, on the economic calendar, we get a fresh look at the labor market with the ADP private payrolls report for October.
Economists predict that private employers will create 66,000 jobs, down from September's figure, which will give us more insight into the state of the workforce. This concludes today's edition . Thank you for watching. Hey, hey, hey. Heat. Down. down. Down. Gay. Down.
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