저자: TomHeavey · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오의 'The world has gone mad' 주장에 따르면 저금리·대규모 통화 공급 속에서 자산 가격은 경제 성장보다 빠르게 오르고, 정부 부채 누적으로 중앙은행의 돈 찍기가 가속되어 가치저장 수단(금·은·비트코인)에 대한 관심이 커질 수 있다는 시각이다. [배경: 저금리와 자산 가격] 전 세계적으로 금리가 낮고 일부 국가는 마이너스 금리다. 중앙은행의 양적완화로 풀린 막대한 자금이 투자처를 찾으면서 금융자산 가격이 오르는 반면, 경제성장과 인플레이션은 둔화된 상태다. [수익률 하락 논리] 예시: 주가 100달러, 배당 5달러(수익률 5%)였던 기업의 주가가 200달러로 오르고 배당은 그대로면 수익률은 2.5%로 절반이 된다. 채권·주식 대부분에서 기대수익률이 낮아지며, 미래 수익에 대한 상상이 과열을 만든다. [버블 경고] 닷컴 버블 이후 가장 많은 기업이 이익 없이도 높은 밸류에이션을 받고 있으며, 일부는 수익화 경로조차 불투명하다. 달러 자금이 소비 대신 투자로 쏠려 자산가격이 경제 성장보다 훨씬 빠르게 오른다고 본다. [정부 부채와 돈 찍기] 대부분 국가가 재정적자와 부채를 안고 있고, 이 부채 증가로 국채 매입 수요가 필요하다. 높은 금리를 감당하기 어려운 정부 여건상 결국 중앙은행이 돈을 찍어 국채를 사들일 가능성이 크다. 달러·유로·엔 등 준비통화가 정부에 의해 가치저장 수단으로서 훼손된다는 것이 핵심 주장이다. [연금·의료 부담] 미국 연금과 건강보험 지급 능력 부족이 예상된다. 정부의 선택지는 연금·의료 지출 삭감, 증세, 돈 찍기 세 가지인데, 이 중 가장 쉬운 길은 돈 찍기다. [분배 문제] 돈 찍기는 자산 가격을 올리고, 부자는 자산을 사고 일반인은 부채를 지기 때문에 빈부 격차가 더 벌어진다. 달러리오는 현재 자본주의 체제가 제대로 작동하지 않으며 2008년 이후의 방식은 지속 불가능하고 패러다임 전환이 다가온다고 본다. [진행자 결론] 진행자는 이 시나리오가 맞다면 스스로 방어할 방법을 조사하라고 권하며, 금·은·비트코인 등 가치저장 수단에 대한 별도 영상을 안내한다. 구독·좋아요 요청과 월간 이벤트 공지도 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
the world has gone mad and the system is broken this is a direct and somewhat shocking quote from Ray Dalio the founder of the world's largest hedge fund a man who knows a thing or two about capitalism so why exactly when a man who's profited so greatly from capitalism believe the system has become broken over time let's dig into it but first I'd like to announce October's winner from our monthly contest to win a free 30-minute video call with me the winner is the YouTube user Prime shift with this comment I've just reached out on telegram so please check your messages ASAP if you're watching this and you'd like to enter for November's free draw all you have to do is the following steps number one like the video number two subscribe to the channel and number three simply comment your telegram username so I can reach out to you if you are this month's winner and two now before you forget - later on during the video right let's get into it why exactly does Valeo have such a seemingly pessimistic view his article begins by discussing globally low interest rates even negative rates in certain countries Dalio discusses why lenders are happy to lend money with such low rates he believes this comes down to the enormous amount of money that they have to invest this being a direct consequence of central bank's printing money and buying up financial assets in their attempt to raise economic activity and inflation so the question is why isn't money printing also known as quantitative easing pushing up economic activity and inflation Dalio believes that this is because investors who are getting money want to invest it rather than spend it as a result the price of financial assets is increasing while economic growth and inflation have remained sluggish the price of an investment Rises its future expected return drops let's say you have company a with a share price of $100 company a offers a $5 dividend at the end of the year to investors it is a 5% return on your investment as a consequence of quantitative easing the share price of company a has now increased to $200 however because the economy has been sluggish company profits remain the same and investors again receive a five-dollar dividends now though this $5 dividend represents just a 2.5 percent return on investment or half of what you had previously achieved this diminished return on investment holds true for bonds equities and nearly all investments out there however unlike bonds that offer investors a consistent return and this number is decided upfront other investments offer variable returns but another way nobody knows what the future returns of a stock will be as a result the expected return is created in the imagination of investors because many a veces have witnessed incredible success stories of tech companies in years gone by their imaginations often run wild this combined with the excess cash held by many investors has led to these investors virtually throwing cash companies today there are more companies than at any other time since the dot-com bubble that don't have to even make profits to achieve extremely high valuations in fact many highly value companies today do not even have a viable path to profitability that they can implement in the future so far this sounds extremely familiar to many situations in history a bubble money has been printed and borrowed with ease those with money are choosing to invest rather than spend causing asset prices to rise significantly faster than the economy grows Valeo has lived through several bubbles in the so why is he viewing today's situation with such concern the answer is because of how he believes governments are going to act moving forwards this could be seen where he discusses government deficits the majority of countries globally have large deficits ie they've borrowed money in order to spend more than they have earned or as um you would say most governments are in debt Daniel believes that these government deficits or government debts will continue to grow substantially therefore governments must sell huge amounts of extra debt usually the purchasing of this debt will drive up higher interest rates but governments today can't afford to have higher interest rates with the markets already looking dangerously overgrown as a result the money to buy this extra government debt will almost certainly come from central bank's printing more money Dalio says this whole dynamic in which sound finance is being thrown out of the window will continue and probably accelerate especially in the reserved countries and their currencies ie in the US and the US dollar Europe and the euro and Japan and the yen in other words valia believes that the reserve currencies of the world are being actively undermined as stores of value by their own governments for the general economy this is likely to be a serious problem for all of you fans of alternative stores of value out there such as gold silver and Bitcoin for many in this community these words may not carry such a negative note for your ears daddio then goes on to discuss his final and equally considerable concern in the u.s.
pension and health care payments simply puts a time is coming where those who were due to pay for pensions and health care won't have enough money to meet their obligations so what happens next will people simply not receive health care or the pensions that they were promised upon retirement while it's of this may occur the government certainly cannot allow this to become the norm instead governments will have to attempt to bridge the gap between the money held and the money owed and how exactly are they gonna do this Dario describes three possible routes number one cutting pension and health care payments number two raising taxes and number three printing money well none of these options are ideal printing money is the easiest path the most hidden and the least objectable for the average person watching this video you may have noticed the common theme here governments are likely to use money printing or quantitative easing to address many many different economic concerns but what is the problem with this the printing of money tends to have one consistent outcome increasing the price of assets but this sounds like a positive right not quite in general the rich tend to buy assets while regular people often take on debt therefore with asset prices rising the rich get considerably richer while the average person remains pretty much stationary in other words the wealth gap between the rich and the poor grows ever greater Dalio goes on to say the system of making capitalism work well for the people is broken this set of circumstances is unsustainable and certainly can no longer be pushed as it has been pushed since 2008 that is why I believe that the world is approaching a big paradigm shift this all sounds pretty doom and gloom I'd love to put a positive spin on things for you but I believe it's best in these situations to be honest with yourself and research as thoroughly as possible how you can protect yourself if Dalio is correct and this future does play out like he believes if you'd like to begin this research check out the video in the top right where I discuss in greater detail valios thoughts on investing into stores of if you've enjoyed this video please remember to give it a like as it takes a considerable amount of effort to put together and if you've made it this far in the video that means you've obviously enjoyed something about it and you're probably gonna want to see more content just like this so make sure to subscribe and turn on notifications that way you can enjoy being part of our incredible community
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