저자: TomHeavey · 외국인
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결론: 레이 달리오가 1930년대 말과 유사한 구조적 위기(빈부·정치 양극화, 금리 인하 여력 소진, 미중 패권 갈등)를 경고하며, 금을 안전자산으로 강조하고 비트코인은 소액(1~2%) 분산투자 대상으로 제시한다. [달리오 경고 - 시대 유사성] 1930년대와 현재 모두 빈부 격차와 정치 양극화가 최대 수준이며, 좌우 포퓰리즘이 부상하고 있다. 달리오는 이 갈등이 법치 약화와 정부의 비상권한 남용으로 이어질 수 있다고 본다. [금리·재정 수단 한계] 여러 나라가 이미 역사적 저금리, 일부는 마이너스 금리 상태라 중앙은행의 추가 금리 인하 여력이 제한적이다. 대안으로 기업·부유층 증세와 양적완화(화폐 발행)가 거론되며, 이는 자본 유출과 자본통제로 이어질 수 있다. [미중 패권 갈등] 기존 강국 미국과 신흥 강국 중국의 대립이 무역전쟁, 자본전쟁, 기술전쟁, 지정학적 전쟁으로 확산될 위험이 있다. 경제 측면에서는 중국이, 군사 측면에서는 미국이 우위이나, 달리오는 전체적으로 중국이 지정학 경쟁에서 앞서 간다고 평가한다. [투자 대응 - 안전자산] 경제 불확실성기에는 주식·부동산과 상관관계가 낮은 금이 헤지 수단이 된다. 현금 보유도 양적완화로 인한 화폐가치 하락을 고려하면 하나의 투자 선택이며 가치 하락 위험이 있다. [비트코인 관점 - 화자 의견] 2019년 비트코인은 최고 성과 자산이었고 타 자산과 상관관계가 낮아 현대 포트폴리오 이론상 1~2% 편입이 분산 효과가 있다고 주장한다. 반대로 비트코인은 변동성이 크고 위기 시 위험자산으로 매도될 수 있다는 부정적 시각도 함께 언급한다. [화자 정리] 달리오 견해와 화자 본인 의견을 구분해 제시하며, 투자 권유가 아닌 정보 제공이라고 밝힌다.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio famous for his ability to predict market downturns and one of the world's greatest investors has recently released another article within it he discusses how the world today looks very similar to how it did in the late 1930s why is that important in the late 1930s the US stock market suffered a terrible crash after a resurgence from the Great Depression the US stock market again crashed in 1937 this time taking a staggering 17 years to return to his previous heights oh yeah and in the late 1930s the world was also on the brink of a second world war in this video I'm gonna do my best to summarize Dario's views why he believes the world is at a critical Junction and how you as an investor can protect your investments potentially even growing them it is important to note that the following opinions and conclusions are those of Ray Dalio not myself unless otherwise stated I mention this now because Valeo discusses the u.s.
often not in the most positive terms but we as investors must push through our biases and take an objective stance as Valeo himself is able to let's begin with the wire why does that eyo believe today's global conditions are similar to those of the late 1930s there are three main conditions that he highlights condition number one today we are witnessing the largest wealth and political gaps since the late 1930s with this we have the emergence of populist s' in both the left and right wings of politics very similar to the 1930s populism refers to a range of political stances with the key tenants that they emphasize the idea of the people and often position this group against the elite why is populism on the rise as with all things there is no one singular reason however the most significant cause could be considered the wealth gap between the poor and the rich or between the people and the elite in fact that yo goes as far as to say that it seems reasonable to worry that the gaps between the rich and the poor and the populace of the left and the populace of the right will become more warlike and that the consequences of their fighting could undermine the efficient operation of the economy as well as the efficient running of government he also highlighted this conflict is likely to lead to reduced respect for the law and the increased use of emergency powers by governments to gain more power than those emergency acts were originally intended for condition number two the limited ability of the world's central banks to stimulate their economies in the event of a negative economic downturn again today's situation is highly similar to the late 1930s typically in order to stimulate an economy governments will implement several methods one of the most notable is the lowering of interest rates think about it when businesses can borrow money more cheaply they can more easily use that money for growth which in turn stimulates the economy however as noted in my last video on Dario's thoughts paradigm shifts interest rates are already at historic lows in many countries globally in fact a few countries even have negative interest rates that's right with a negative interest rate you are paid to borrow money while central banks may drop interest rates further something we have already seen in the past months this time they have little room for manoeuvre and will likely look to alternative methods Gallio believes two key methods are likely number one substantially raising taxes on companies and the rich number two the printing of money by central banks also known as quantitative easing the result of these two things could lead to a situation where those with money attempt to move their money out of the country in order to avoid the issues caused by these two approaches as a result countries are likely to begin implementing capital controls not allowing this money to leave the country so that it can be taxed and in the case of fiat currencies devalued through quantitative easing before I tell you about the third overlap between today's climate and the 1930s let me first tell you about our monthly competition which is entirely free to enter every month I join a subscriber for a free 30-minute video call if you'd like the chance to win this month all you have to do is the following steps number one like the video number two subscribe to the channel and number three simply comment what you liked about this video along with your telegram username so that I can reach out to the winner it's that simple so make sure you enter now before you forget back to it condition number three similar to the late 1930s there is a rising power that is challenging the existing world power today we have the existing world power of the US and the rising power of China Dalio believes that this faceoff will likely lead to more conflicts in the future and if history is anything to go by an increased risk of war he highlights the four main categories of war that this could lead to number one trade wars this much we have already witnessed in the past year between the US and China number two capital Wars here we must consider that the US president has the ability to unilaterally cut off capital flows to China freeze payments on the debts owed to China and also use sanctions to inhibit non-american financial transactions with China considering that the US president has just yesterday at the time of recording threatened to obliterate the Turkish economy we must understand the real likelihood of a capital war in the coming years on the flip side of this imagine what would happen to the price of US bonds if China began to dump them today's situation mirrors the late 1930s and early 40s with the US is freezing of Japanese assets and the embargoing of oil deliveries to Japan number three technology was again we have already seen this in recent times with the USS stance towards while we a Chinese tech company and finally number four geopolitical Wars in a geopolitical war countries must decide whether they aligned with China or the u.s.
typically countries will make this decision based on both their economic and military calculations according to Taleo the economic calculations have one clear winner for almost every country without exception China it should be noted this calculation is not based simply on the size of the two economies instead it is how each economy affects your own with China being larger in terms of trade and capital inflows being the key factors on the military front the US is winning however they are showing less likelihood in recent times of supporting countries via military means on top of this China's own military capability especially their cyber divisions are growing rapidly on the balance of both economic and military considerations Dalio believes that china are winning at the geopolitical war and they're likely to continue moving further ahead in the coming years what can investors do with all of this doom and gloom you may be wondering to yourself what can we as investors do in my previous video discussing radios views on paradigm shifts we covered extensively how he views the walls of economy shifting in upcoming times and how investors can not only protect their portfolios but even see growth during this tough period I'll provide a brief summary here but I'd strongly recommend checking out that video too for more extensive details the link is in the description Dahlia highlights the importance of safe havens in particular gold a safe haven is an investment which is generally uncorrelated or negatively correlated to traditional investments such as stocks real estate etc during times of economic uncertainty investors look to these investments as a method of hedging their portfolios in case a downturn is around the corner in the last video there were several comments about how Balio hadn't directly said everything I covered in the video while I believe I was quite clear in expressing where the video moved away from Dario sorts and towards the thoughts of other economic experts all my own opinions I'm gonna make this video even clearer that point is now we've just discussed the importance of safe havens during negative economic times but you might be thinking at this point why not just not invest until all of this plays out in other words why not choose to leave your money in cash instead while some may view this as an on investment and during many times in history that may have been the case you must consider quantitative easing as discussed earlier quantitative easing is the printing of money we know from economics 101 that an increased supply of any good generally leads to a lower valuation of this good in other words an increased supply of fiat currencies may decrease their relative value to items you wish to purchase in the future ie inflation while inflation is a complex matter and isn't determined solely by the supply of a currency many experts believe that the artificial printing of money may lead to higher inflation rate in the future and thus see devaluations there for any investor considering holding cash must realize this isn't a non investment instead view it as an investment into cash if this is an investment you're happy holding then by all means do so I'm certainly not here to tell anyone what they should do or what they should invest into my only aim is to point out that cash is an investment choice and you should consider that implication value of highlights gold as a safe haven and a market hedge as noted earlier this is due to Gold's negative correlation or lack of correlation with traditional investments for those who have been following my journey for some time as a cryptocurrency investor you're probably aware of my thoughts on Bitcoin if you're a gold Punk who doesn't like Bitcoin maybe you were burned in the 2017 Bitcoin bubble or perhaps you simply don't want to hear about Bitcoin today no problem feel free to end the video at this point I hope that you've enjoyed the content so far and I'd really appreciate if you could just leave a like on the video as I put in a fair amount of work to create this and it helps with YouTube's algorithm so more people can see this content if you would like to hear about bitcoins lack of correlation with traditional markets making a potential market hedge feel free to continue the video for anyone who is anti Bitcoin at this point don't say I didn't warn you in today's investment arena fund managers regularly use modern portfolio theory to influence their investment decisions modern portfolio theory dictates that an ideal portfolio will contain a mix of uncorrelated investments in 2019 Bitcoin has been the best performing asset and exhibited a lack of correlation with other investments during this time therefore their coin fits extremely well with modern portfolio theory this is why I believe the Bitcoin could continue to be a high-performing asset in the next few years based solely on the provable mathematical improvement to a portfolio that investors receive by investing one to two percent of that portfolio into Bitcoin the key for me here is the mathematical angle if you approach a fund manager and say that he or she should invest into Bitcoin because it is going to be the money of the future this is a nigh on impossible cell however if you can mathematically prove to them that by investing just one to two percent of their portfolio into Bitcoin they have a higher potential upside along with a lower risk because of the diversification the conversation is likely to go significantly better having said this let's do our best to be impartial and consider the alternative the potential negatives for investing into Bitcoin first it should be noted that the investment size discussed is only one to two percent of a person's overall portfolio nothing more this is a highly volatile asset class be sensible secondly some view Bitcoin not as a safe haven or market hedge like gold but instead a risk on investment for those investors a general market decline may persuade them to focus more on safe for assets and turn away from the likes of Bitcoin to this point I would somewhat agree I would say that I personally believe that the majority of fund managers actually do and will continue to take this negative view of Bitcoin in the next year or so but those fund managers are likely already not invested to see an increased number of fund managers globally investing into Bitcoin doesn't require the majority to view it in a positive light in fact because so few large funds are currently invested in this asset class even a small percentage of them taking a positive your Bitcoin would likely lead to a greater number of investors whether you're a big fan of Ray Dalio or Bitcoin I hope you've enjoyed this video if you don't like Bitcoin I hope the beginning and middle sections of this video were more to your liking if you're a big fan of Bitcoin you may have liked the ending I also hope that I've been explicitly clear this time round about where I've added to Ray Dalio thoughts and included my own if you've enjoyed this video I'd appreciate if you could leave a like as this has taken some significant time to put together and even a single like helps the YouTube algorithm so more people can see this video finally remember to subscribe and turn on notifications so you don't miss any future content just like this
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