저자: MarcFaber · 외국인
요약 보기
글로벌 금융시장은 과잉 유동성과 신용 팽창으로 부풀어 있으며, AI 설비투자 붐이 과잉공급을 낳고 붕괴하면 자산 전반에 큰 손실을 동반한 심각한 경기침체가 온다고 주장. 장기금리 상승과 물가 부담으로 주택 구매는 역사적 저점이고 임금 비중은 최저, 기업이익은 최고인 양극화 경제라 진단. 이 때문에 금·은·백금 같은 실물 귀금속을 방어 수단으로 권함. 중동 분쟁은 쉽게 끝나지 않을 것이며 미국의 위상과 달러 신뢰는 약화되고 다극화로 이동한다고 봄.
다듬은 글
It's probably a good idea, if you can afford it, to hold onto gold, silver, and platinum. Now, there is a risk of expropriation, and Trump would not hesitate to expropriate. He took other people's savings, just like the US government has been doing for years. That's why nobody trusts the US dollar anymore.
So, we have plenty of liquidity, but if you reduce it, you'll have a recession. In a democracy, governments that cause recessions are not elected. I mean, Trump, he knows very well. He needs to keep the stock market rising until after the November elections, the midterm elections . Global financial markets are operating under unprecedented artificial liquidity and decades of rampant credit expansion .
This prolonged monetary intervention decoupled stock valuations from fundamental economic reality, inflating a massive debt bubble. Mark Faber, renowned Swiss investor and editor of the report "Gloom, Boom & Doom," warns that this systemic distortion is destined to trigger a severe macroeconomic adjustment.
The aggressive capital expenditure boom surrounding artificial intelligence will inevitably unravel as enormous structural overcapacities form in the sector. Once this speculative cycle breaks down, the global economy will plunge into a devastating recession, rather than a mild cyclical correction, causing heavy capital losses across all major asset classes.
Delaying this downturn through currency devaluation and continued deficit spending will only make the eventual collapse much worse. In this environment, physical precious metals such as gold, silver, and platinum offer essential defensive protection, even as rising sovereign liabilities intensify the future risk of wealth expropriation by the state.
t's a complete manipulation. And it will end badly. The question is simply when—tomorrow, in three months, or in three years—because by printing money and running fiscal deficits you can keep the ball rolling for a while, but not forever. And the longer you postpone the potential economic downturn, the worse the downturn will become.
In other words, we are dealing with a situation where conditions will be in place when the AI-related capital spending boom ends, when everything collapses, because overcapacity will naturally be built up. When this all collapses, the recession will not be a typical recession, just a cyclical event.
But, in my opinion, it will be devastating; It will be terrible like that. And the question is: as an investor or asset holder, how do I lose the least amount of money? Everyone will lose money, but how do I lose the least amount? Let's assume that the current system will come to an end one way or another.
Yes, I call it a bubble, and this bubble will come to an end. This bubble is gigantic because the government has been printing money for the last 40 years, especially after COVID, which was used as an excuse to print more. So they printed massive quantities, and the problem with printing money, and I give myself credit for having expressed the opinion when Mr.
Bernanke initiated quantitative easing. The announcement was made in December 2008, during the crisis, and I was asked, uh, how long this quantitative easing would last. I said that once it starts, it's very difficult to stop. It's practically impossible. You can stop, but then you'll have a severe recession.
And that's exactly what happens every time the growth of the money supply in the US slows down. And, by the way, I need to mention that, according to Bloomberg, financial conditions are currently the easiest since 1997. It has never been so easy to borrow money and things like that. So we have a lot of liquidity, but if you cut it, you'll have a recession.
And in a democracy, uh, governments that cause recessions don't get elected. I mean, Trump, he knows very well that he has to keep the stock market high until after the November elections, the midterm elections . And he needs to show that the economy is doing well. He can lie, but lies only go so far .
I mean, one thing he can't lie about, they can manipulate a little, but not 100%. These are long-term bonds, long-term interest rates. Uh, the long-term bond has been weak. Uh, and in my opinion, this has an impact on the real estate market because mortgage rates are approaching 7%. I'm telling you, if mortgage rates go above 7%, it will have a psychological impact, and home purchases, uh, are at a historically low level.
Why? We have a booming economy, and people aren't buying houses. They can't afford to pay. It's a matter of financial accessibility. You understand, the Fed maneuvered itself, with supreme wisdom, into a position, a condition where they raise the cost of living so much that ordinary people have affordability problems .
They can't afford to buy things. They would like to buy it, but they can't afford it. And the rich can buy things, but they don't need them. They already have everything. So the economy is now on a very, shall we say, distorted and divergent path , where the middle and lower classes of society are in decline, and we can measure this by wages as a percentage of the economy.
They are at an all-time low, and corporate profits are at an all-time high. So we have a bifurcated economy with some , the 0.1%, the Bill Gates and Jeff Bezos of this world, and Elen, our friend Elen, they are benefiting. And ordinary people, to put it bluntly, are screwed. And the government isn't helping; They are supporting these conditions.
It's probably reasonably good, if you can afford it, to have money in gold, silver, and platinum. Now, there is a risk of expropriation, and Trump would not hesitate to carry out expropriations. He was convicted of fraud and embezzlement repeatedly. He is usually a thief. Therefore, he would not hesitate to take other people's gold.
And that's why nobody trusts the American dollar anymore . Global lending conditions have reached their loosest levels since 1997, flooding the financial system with excess liquidity and undermining monetary stability. This interventionist structure has created a deeply bifurcated economy, where corporate profits reach historic highs, while employee wages as a share of national income have fallen to historic lows.
Central bank policies have increased daily expenses so drastically that the working and middle classes are facing an acute affordability crisis. Simultaneously, chronic weakness in the long-term bond market is pushing mortgage rates down to 7%, suppressing residential home purchases to historic lows.
Political efforts to prop up stock markets during midterm election cycles fail to hide the reality that ordinary families are being excluded from basic assets. Now let 's go back to the interview. I think things are relatively peaceful in Asia, certainly where I live in Thailand. But who knows, things can change quickly?
And, uh, it's not that I have sleepless nights; I can sleep under any conditions. But my feeling is that the conflict in the Middle East cannot end quickly because nobody really wants it to end. The Iranians are in an unfavorable position. But I want to tell you something significant about this. In the World Cup, the football world cup, there was a match between Belgium and the United States .
Okay, Belgium is an insignificant country in every respect except for the diamond trade, which is n't doing particularly well at the moment because prices have plummeted. And the US is the powerful country. And I can tell you that the whole world, whether in Africa, Latin America, Europe, or here in Asia, celebrated the fact that little Belgium beat the USA.
Why is that? Because under Trump, under the neoconservatives and radicals like Dick Cheney and Rumsfeld, and that sort of people who are criminals, war criminals, the US lost its prestige. When I was growing up, in the 50s and 60s, people admired America. They believed that America was for the good of the world.
And that led to a president like Kennedy, who gave hope to the world. It may all have been fake, but he was a hopeful president. And today, the US has become unpopular almost everywhere. And nobody wants the US to simply win the war in the Middle East. And that Israel controls the Middle East. But I assure you, after the events that occurred in the Gaza Strip, sympathy for Israel around the world plummeted, plummeted, and the US is seen as both a supporter of Israel and a warmonger, and everyone kind of sympathizes with Iran because it's the little guy fighting against the big, powerful nation.
And the Iranians are supported indirectly by powerful allies. They don't want the US. The US has now apparently declared the strait as American territory, as if they hope to realize that dream. But anyway, I want to say that this war will not end anytime soon because the interests of Israel and the world are not aligned, and also because the interests of Israel and Iran are not aligned, and so on.
And then, it can last for a long time and can actually become quite embarrassing for the US. China or Russia want to establish a kind of hegemony and control the world. But China wants to control Asia. That 's good enough for them. And they do n't want to be threatened by the US and the American bases surrounding China .
That's clear. This is a long-term goal. And I suppose that, in the Middle East, they don't want to be threatened by Israel. And I assume that some countries feel threatened because Israel has nuclear weapons while other countries do not. In politics and war strategies, if one participant has superior weapons, the others also want to acquire those weapons.
And in Europe, that feeling is correct. They don't want to be controlled by Russia, but they also don't want to be slaves to the US. Oh, that's how ordinary people feel. Do you understand? Politicians may have a different view. Politicians are accountable to American presidents and the United States.
But ordinary people want to be European. They don't want to be American. And so the world may not have the leadership it had after World War II, and uh, we may be moving towards a multipolar world, but uh, in the current circumstances of trade wars, I don't think that's very good for economic growth and prosperity.
That's my perspective. The international geopolitical architecture is undergoing a rapid structural realignment as global confidence in Western financial hegemony and the US dollar continues to deteriorate. Unlike the post-World War II era, characterized by widespread admiration for American global leadership, international sentiment has become decidedly unfavorable amid recurring external involvements and unilateral policies.
In the Middle East, highly conflicting regional objectives prevent a diplomatic resolution, while international sympathy has visibly shifted away from traditional interventionist powers . Simultaneously, sovereign powers are reaffirming their regional autonomy. China prioritizes security and commercial dominance throughout Asia to counter foreign military encirclement.
While European populations are increasingly resisting subordination to foreign geopolitical agendas in favor of their own identity. Furthermore, regional military imbalances and nuclear disparities fuel ongoing strategic frictions, while aggressive trade wars and protectionist barriers actively suppress international trade.
In this fragmented landscape, unbacked fiduciary systems and legacy alliances are giving way to an unstable multipolar order, defined by localized trade networks and strategic independenc.
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