저자: BillAckman · 외국인
요약 보기
결론: 빌 애크먼은 연준이 고용 목표를 달성했으므로 즉시 테이퍼링을 끝내고 금리를 빨리 올려 인플레이션을 잡아야 한다고 주장하며, 이 발언은 인플레이션 우려를 반영한 것으로 해석됨. [발언 요지] 뉴욕 연준 발표에서 애크먼은 테이퍼링 즉시 시행과 조기 금리 인상을 주장함. 그는 자신의 롱온리 주식 포트폴리오가 금리 상승에 취약하다고 보고 금리 상승에 대비한 헤지를 해둔 상태라고 공개함. [고용 근거] 코로나로 약 2,500만 명이 일자리를 잃었으나 약 2,000만 명이 1년 내 회복됨. 실업률은 약 4.8%로 팬데믹 전 3.5% 수준에 근접 중이며, 공석은 1,000만 개 이상이라고 언급. 월 50만 개 신규 일자리가 창출되어 1년 내 고용 총량이 팬데믹 이전 수준 회복이 예상됨. [델타 변이 논리] 델타 변이 우려로 완화 정책을 유지했으나 실제 확진·입원·사망 증가는 제한적이었고 백신 효과도 확인됨. 따라서 델타를 완화 정책의 근거로 쓰는 것은 더 이상 설득력이 없다고 주장. [인플레이션 근거] 발표 당시 인플레이션은 약 5%, 이후 약 6%로 상승했다고 언급. 식품, 에너지, 신차·중고차, 주거 등 전 분야에서 물가가 상승. [역사적 비교] 1987·1994·1999·2004·2015년 금리 인상기 모두 실업률은 현재보다 높고 인플레이션은 현재보다 낮았음에도 긴축이 이뤄졌다고 지적. [타 기관 입장] 영국 중앙은행(BOE)은 인플레이션 위험을 인정하고 금리 인상을 예고했으며, IMF도 연준에 긴축 준비를 촉구. [연준 일정 비판] 당시 연준은 국채 매입을 월 100억 달러, 모기지담보증권(MBS) 매입을 월 50억 달러씩 줄이는 테이퍼링 계획을 세우고 있었고 금리 인상은 2022년 말 이후로 예고됨. 애크먼은 이 속도가 너무 느리다며 가속화를 주문. [출연자 진행자 해석] 진행자는 애크먼의 금리 상승 주장에 개인 이해관계(헤지 포지션)가 깔려 있다고 지적하지만, 연준 정책 전환은 어차피 불가피하므로 그의 주장이 자산 가격에 큰 영향을 주지는 않을 것이라고 평가. 이후 옴비크론 변이 우려와 파월 연준 의장의 '일시적(transitory)' 표현 폐기가 언급되었고, 2022년 초 금리 인상은 확실하다고 전망. [자산별 방향] 미국 금리: 상승 전망(애크먼 및 진행자 모두 인상 불가피 언급). 금·비트코인·주식 등 개별 자산에 대한 직접 가격 전망은 언급되지 않음.
다듬은 글
bill ackman is a pretty famous investor though not for purely good reasons he has made huge amounts of money through his fund which focuses mostly on chain restaurants and fast food but his knowledge and expertise is far more widespread than that he is by all measures a very successful investor and has certainly earned himself a reputation to go along with that when he speaks we ought to listen but we are also to think about some potential ulterior motives that he might have in the back of his mind ackman has a notable history of taking short positions and then using his name and influence to try and tank a stock or even a market he infamously did so against herbalife throughout the 2010s and then again when the virus hit and lockdown started in 2020.
he went on tv and told everyone hell is coming that they ought to sell every stock they own because it's only going downhill from there of course once the market tanked he exited his short positions made a lot of money and bought back into the market making himself billions in the process but costing a lot of other people who trusted him millions as well but what has he got to say now and what might his ulterior motives be this time well that's what we're going to cover today but first make sure to and sell alerts from my own personal portfolio so what exactly did ackman come out and say well he put out these tweets i gave a presentation to the federal reserve bank of new york last week to share our views on inflation and fed policy the bottom line we think the fed should taper immediately and begin raising rates as soon as possible we are continuing to dance while the music is playing and it is time to turn down the music and settle down as we have previously disclosed we have put our money where our mouth is in hedging our exposure to an upward move in rates as we believe that a rise in rates could negatively impact our long-only equity portfolio so ackman there basically just explained that he gave a presentation to the new york fed and that the overarching thesis of his talk was that the markets are fraught with risk and that the fed needs to taper immediately and raise rates as well in order to preserve financial stability he also said that he is positioned in his fund to do well as interest rates rise in a preemptive attempt to stop people from claiming that he's just trying to manipulate the market from these tweets and ackman's positions in the market which are publicly known it is clear that he really does think that it's time for the music to stop playing and for investors to stop dancing tough times are ahead so what you're telling me is that music is about to stop but what exactly are his concerns and what are his arguments that back them well luckily for us his speech detailed this all for us and i'm going to condense it all for you so the first thing that ackman discusses in his talk is what the aims of the federal reserve are and the state of the economy in regards to those aims now it should be pretty clear at this point but the fed is almost obsessed with reducing unemployment and getting people to work now this is a fair target to be honest as it's a very important thing for an economy and in the wake of the lockdowns unemployment was very high now usually the fed would also have aims surrounding inflation and they would want to keep it sitting at round about two percent a year at this rate it encourages people to spend their cash which benefits the economy and everyone in it but it isn't such a huge inflation rate that prices spiral out of control it's a happy medium which almost every country in the world aims to meet obviously right now inflation isn't sitting at two percent in the us or in pretty much any other western nation either yet the fed up until very recently hasn't really cared about this they said over and over again that their primary aim is to reduce unemployment to get more people working and that if inflation rises as a result of their actions well then that's okay as long as more people have jobs what bill ackman spends the first 20 minutes of his speech talking about is the belief he has that the primary aim of the fed has been achieved and that it's time for the fed to start paying attention to inflation and fighting that instead of letting it continue to mount he pointed out that the government put out huge amounts of support for businesses and people throughout the lockdowns and that the government was very successful in preventing a real recession from taking hold dropping interest rates to what basically amounts to zero in nominal terms and negative six in real terms has stimulated the markets to a massive degree as well what ackman is critical of however is how the fed has been using a wait-and-see approach and that has caused huge risks for the market and the economy as inflation has not been given the attention it should have over the course of the pandemic 25 million jobs were lost in the u.s but 20 million have been recreated in the following year unemployment is currently sitting at about 4.8 percent compared to the three and a half percent before the lockdowns there are almost eight million unemployed people in the u.s but there are over 10 million job openings in the country as well 500 000 new jobs are being created every month on top of that suggesting that within a year or so the total number of jobs in the country will probably reach pre-pandemic levels all of this suggests that the fed has achieved its primary goal of stimulating employment and that it's time to change their tune so why were the fed holding off on tapering and raising rates in the past well one of the big reasons was because of the threat of the delta variant and what it might do the belief was that because this variant was more transmissive and had caused cases to spike in a number of different countries it could cause a return to the lockdowns of the past and if that were the case the fed would need to keep the money printers back on and keep rates at zero to stimulate the economy but the fears around the delta variant never really materialized cases rose a bit but by and large continued to fool and hospitalizations and deaths saw a similar trend as well the variant wasn't immune to vaccinations as many people had claimed it would be and by and large they continued to work against this variant from ackman's point of view it is no longer credible and actually never was credible to use the existence of the delta variant as an excuse to keep monetary policy loose and that leads us and it led akron nicely into the real reason the fed's policy absolutely has to change and it is of course inflation it's no secret that inflation is high it's been high for months but it is only recently that mainstream media has been paying any meaningful attention to it it's high across the board from food prices and energy to new and used vehicles and housing now when ackman made this speech inflation was sitting at about five percent but since then it has shot up even more to six percent making his case even stronger ackman looked at historical precedent and the economic conditions that led to tighter monetary policy in the past and compared it to today to strengthen his case as well in 1987 unemployment was higher than today and inflation was lower than today and that led to interest rate hikes in 1994 unemployment was higher than today and inflation was lower than today and that led to interest rate hikes the same can be said for 1999 2004 and 2015.
in all of the examples of recent interest rate hikes unemployment was higher than today and inflation was lower and yet in the past tighter monetary policy was adopted whereas over the last year the fed merely covered their eyes buried their heads in the stand and pretended that there wasn't a problem ackman pointed out the fact that not everyone is running away from their problems however most notably the bank of england and the international monetary fund the bank of england has changed its tune and seems very intent on ensuring that everyone knows that they acknowledge the risk of inflation but it's too high and that they are not going to sit back as it continues to rise they have already warned that they will need to act to reduce inflation and that means raising interest rates in the uk very soon the story from the imf is much the same they have warned of the dangers of rising inflation and claimed that the fed should be preparing to tighten their monetary policy lest inflation run out of control they basically said that if they continue to prioritize employment inflation will find itself in a positive feedback loop getting higher and higher and that is how a country loses control of its currency basically what ackman said and what he seems very intent on being heard saying is that the fed needs to taper now and it needs to do it quickly it also needs to raise interest rates and stop inflation from spiraling out of control the fed has achieved its goal of stimulating employment there are more job openings in the us right now than ever before and every single unemployed person could have a job if they wanted to so the time for the fed to be pursuing a maximum employment strategy has ended now at the time that ackman made this speech the fed was planning on tapering at a pretty slow rate reducing their purchases of treasuries by 10 billion dollars less each month and their purchases of mortgage-backed securities by 5 billion each month they were also suggesting that they would not be raising rates for some time and that they might not even start until late 2022.
this is all too little too late according to akman and it needs to be sped up waiting the best part of a year to raise rates is too passive and will allow inflation to continue to soar and continuing to buy billions of dollars of assets that don't need financial support anymore will continue to inflate the market and increase the size of the bubble in short things need to change now as is often the case with ackman it is worthwhile just stopping slowing down and thinking about why ackman is saying all of this and considering whether or not there are any ulterior motives and the truth is that there are reasons why ackman is saying this the first one and the one that he came out right at the beginning and reminded us of is that he has positioned his portfolio to do well if interest rates rise so it makes perfect sense that he would want rates to rise doesn't it he's not going to come out and say that rates are fine where they are if he's set to profit when they rise so i can understand why some people think he's just trying to push the fed's direction in a way that will benefit him but to be perfectly honest i think that's being a little bit too harsh here and that isn't his primary motive his real reason for saying all this in my opinion at least isn't so that his portfolio can profit by as much as possible but because it's just the right thing to do inflation is spiraling out of control and unless the fed changes their ways millions of people are going to suffer as a result of that in fact millions of people already are suffering as a result of the fed's policy and ackman is absolutely right to try and explain why their policy needs to change of course it would also be practically suicide for the fed to continue to print money to keep interest rates at zero as inflation spirals out of control so it's obvious that rates will rise at some point anyway all that ackman is doing here is pushing the idea that the fed needs to act quicker as it was already clear they were going to act eventually aquin's portfolio would perform well anyway once the fed changed their tune and if they change quicker his investments start doing well sooner but this isn't going to be a drastic change and it won't really have any impact on ackman's performance over the long run so i don't buy the idea that akman is only making this point to try and enrich himself now funnily enough it's actually been a while since ackman came out with these comments and in that time the fed the markets and the us government as a whole seems to have awoken to the threat that is posed by the federal reserve's actions over the last year i'm sure you've seen but in recent days the sentiment in the market has changed fears of the omicron variant emerged but the threat of that variant itself isn't actually too serious what could be serious is the government's potential reaction to the new variant jerome powell came out and said that it's time to retire the word transitory when talking about inflation which throws my suggestion for the word of the year out of the window no inflation is here to stay and even the most dubbish policymakers in the world don't even have the ghoul to claim otherwise anymore rate hikes are on their way without a doubt at some point in 2022 and maybe even within the first few months of the year now i'm not claiming that bill akman alone is responsible for kicking the fed into gear it's far more likely that the market's adverse reaction to news over the last couple weeks has done far more than he did but he did shed some light on the issue and he did use his position as a world famous investor and public figure to shame an organization that has repeatedly failed to achieve what it is supposed to and has done so with arrogance that shocked the world no one likes to take responsibility for their mistakes especially those who find themselves working for governments but yellen empowers utter failure as people with authority in the federal reserve need to be remembered for who they really are not who they claim to be this is a crisis of their own doing the pain that is to come is a result of their actions and without a doubt they deserve all of the blame that is going to come their way if you enjoyed this video then make sure to and sell alerts from my own personal portfolio there's ive which will give you up to 250 dollars in free bitcoin when you use it you can also get up to thank you all for the support thanks for watching stay stoic until next time you
Comments 0