저자: 미상 · 외국인
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결론: 유가 하락과 기술주·고밸류 성장주 약세가 이어질 가능성이 높으며, 닷컴버블 붕괴와 유사한 흐름을 경계해야 한다는 진행자의 시각이다. 유가: 최근 급락은 오미크론 변이 우려에 따른 수요 감소 기대가 원인이다. OPEC는 증산 결정을 유지했으나 가격이 더 떨어지면 철회할 수 있는 조항이 있다. 유가 하락은 물가 전반에 긍정적이며 11월 CPI에는 늦게 반영되고 2022년쯤 나타날 수 있다고 봤다. 코로나·방역: 오슬로는 실내 마스크와 재택근무를 재도입했고, 독일은 미접종자 봉쇄를 시행했다. 오미크론은 전 세계에 이미 퍼진 상태라 여행 제한의 효과는 크지 않다고 봤다. 미국·영국은 대규모 제한 가능성이 낮다고 평가했다. 변이의 치명성과 전파력에 대한 근거는 수주 뒤에야 나온다고 했다. 시장: 금리 인상과 유동성 축소 기조(파월의 매파적 톤)는 투기적 성장주에 불리하다. 캐시 우드의 ARK 종목, 밈주식, 실적 없는 미래 기술주가 타격을 받고 있다. 진행자는 닷컴버블 때처럼 투기주가 먼저 무너지고 이후 전체 시장이 끌려 내려가는 흐름이 이어질 수 있다고 봤다. 단기 조정 지속을 예상했다. 레이 달리오: 중국 펀드를 출시해 10억 달러 이상을 모았고, 중국 인권 기록을 따지지 않겠다는 발언을 했다. 진행자는 이를 강하게 비판했고, 미트 롬니의 비판에 동의했다. 중국과 서방의 관계 악화가 지속되면 달리오가 큰 타격을 받을 것이라고 전망했다. 리스크: 오미크론 정보 부족, 방역 강화 가능성, 금리 인상 기조가 주요 변수다. 출연자 전망: 진행자는 단기적으로 시장 약세를 예상하며, 달리오에 대해서는 장기적으로 불리하다고 평가했다.
다듬은 글
hey guys daily update here hope you're doing well today we're just going to cover a few things firstly we're going to look at the oil prices they're dipping again a bit opex had some news then we're going to cover the markets in general a little bit stuff about covid and then a little thing about what ray dalio has come out and said recently hopefully it doesn't take too long hopefully you enjoy it let me know if you do want these daily video updates that a lot of people seem to want yesterday when i put one up so just leave a comment down below letting me know what you think about this right so to get us off started oil prices are changing a lot but more importantly they're dropping or they have dropped yesterday actually they rose about a percent on some news from apec but they're still massively down from the week prior where they dropped five ten percent overnight so why did prices drop last week well it's really due to the omicron variant and covid and a little bit of fear about demand for oil in the future the idea is that if omicron is really serious and lockdown start up again well then it's quite likely that demand for oil was going to fall and that would cause prices to fall and so oil prices now are reacting to that potential news in advance because oil is a commodity isn't just used for you know shipping or creating petrol or diesel or kerosene it's also used as a financial instrument to bet on things in the future opaque nations came out with some news regarding their changes and they have decided that they will still produce more oil this month so opec over the last few weeks have been considering whether or not they should be increasing their oil supply because prices are getting very high and there's a lot of demand for it and they decided that they were going to increase supply but then the prices crashed and everyone thought that maybe they'd go back on their decision because they wouldn't want to flood the market while demand is low but yesterday news came out that they were going to stick with their decision to produce more oil they probably think that this oil price drop is just a blip and it will go back up soon and so oil prices dropped a little bit on this news as well because more suppliers going to come and so prices are expected to fall again opec did stress that they can quickly change their decision and there is a get out clause in this agreement so if prices continue to drop they can just scrap this new idea not produce any more oil and not cause the prices to dip any further in general low oil prices are good for people good for the economy and especially good for inflation you know almost everything in the economy is affected by oil prices because almost everything has to travel from one place to another and that usually involves shipping or trucking or trains or anything like that and that means the oil prices influence prices of pretty much every other good in the world now this oil price dip may be a little bit too late to show up on the inflation readings the cpi data we're going to get in the us for november but it will probably show up by 2022 if prices stay this low now regarding covid obviously there have been a few more developments mostly because of the omicron variant and a few countries have started to take actions oslo the city in norway has reintroduced a mask requirement for people to use when they're indoors or in public transport and the like and they've also started up a work from home mandate again this is basically a very very light lockdown they're trying not to disrupt their economy too much but they're still trying to disrupt the flow of the virus and to be fair that makes perfect sense less cases is a good thing but not always if it comes at the expense of something else regarding the omkron variant itself it's been found in pretty much every country it's in the us it's in the uk the rest of europe it's in india basically it's all over the world already and all of these travel bans aren't really going to do much to prevent it from spreading further germany another european country that has been struggling with covert recently off the back of the delta variant maybe maybe just because they aren't super vaccinated but germany have decided to lock down the unvaccinated in a pretty strict manner again this is a lockdown that is targeting the people who are most likely to spread the virus but it's doing so in a way that hopefully won't impact their economy too much but it does open the door to some other maybe less than favorable government rules or powers that many people would not want the government to have in short a lot of countries are now considering vaccine mandates to try and prevent the spread and the damage of the viruses and some countries are already going ahead with these vaccine mandates restrictions in general again are looking more likely in lots of places but not every place personally i don't think major restrictions are going to come to the us or the uk because our politics are just a little bit past that but in other countries where they haven't quite got to that point yet restrictions are looking very likely there haven't really been any real developments on the omicron variant regarding lethality virality and risk it's going to take weeks for actual news and concrete evidence of this to come through so we just need to sit tight regarding that in the market speculative stocks have started to take hits as they tend to be risky bets based on growth or lots of demand and the future isn't looking so certain anymore high interest rates and less liquidity is bad for them and that seems to be the direction that jerome powell is taking the fed with this new hawkish tone he's adopted kathy woods ark stocks are taking big hits meme stocks futuristic tech stocks with high promises but no current results all of these companies with high growth and lots of promises of profitability in the future but nothing really they've amounted to yet are starting to take hits and to be honest i see this continuing for a little bit this is very similar to the dot-com bubble and how that bubble actually burst a lot of people think that it was just an instant pop and that then the entire market crashed and within a week everything was down to 10 of its previous value but that just isn't the case the most speculative stocks fell first the amazons and the pets.com and then once they had fallen down to their 10 of their previous values then they started to drag down the rest of the markets as well and there's a decent chance that's what we're seeing here today in china news ray dalio opened up a new fund in china and raised over a billion dollars for it earlier this year and he recently went online and claimed that he can't keep up to date with every country's human rights record so he doesn't bother he basically likened the ccp to a strict parent and personally i think it's pretty shameful what he did i've lost a lot of respect for him over 2021 and i know i'm not the only person in that camp thankfully though there are politicians and figures on the other side of the pond who are more than willing to cool out this cowardice mitt romney came out with a tweet and said that ray dalio is brilliant and a friend but his feigned ignorance of china's horrific abuses and rationalization of complicit investments there is a sad moral lapse tragically it is shared by far too many here and throughout the free world obviously i absolutely agree with mitt romney here it's good to see him speak out and give some coverage to the issue in my mind the times of ignoring the threat that china posed ended with covert and 2020.
dalio is now in my opinion a bit of a dinosaur and on the wrong side of history and in a few years when relations between the us the west and china continue to deteriorate he's going to find himself taking a pretty heavy hit so that's it for the day for the daily update if you do like this stuff leave a comment i'm still not 100 sure if i'm gonna do it throughout the entirety of december maybe just the weekdays monday through friday maybe weekends as well i'll see how it goes but the response so far has been huge i've had loads of comments loads of dms it's been really really positive so thank you all for that support and sell alerts for my own personal portfolio there's y oin thank you all for the support thanks for watching stay stoic until next time you
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