저자: MoneyBaguette · 한국인
요약 보기
레버리지 ETF는 일간 수익률을 배수로 추종하도록 설계되어, 횡보나 등락이 반복되면 복리 효과로 원금이 일간 잠식된다. 1배 ETF가 10% 올랐다 9.1% 내려 원상복구되어도 3배 레버리지는 27.3% 하락해 손실이 발생한다. 선물 직접거래는 증거금 레버리지로 고수익·고위험이며 반대 방향으로 증거금이 소진되면 강제청산될 수 있다. 고수익에는 반드시 고위험이 따르므로 레버리지 상품은 위험을 이해한 투자자만 접근해야 한다.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Money Baguette. Last time, I uploaded a video analyzing leverage ETFs. Many of you were surprised to hear that leverage ETFs fall even when the stock price is consolidating, asking if that was really true. So, I made this video today to provide a supplementary explanation on that point.
This fact is actually very important for those investing in leverage, yet many people seem unaware of it. If you haven't seen the first video, please click the link above to watch it first. However, for those who still don't want to watch it, I will briefly summarize the key points of the last video in about a minute.
What I mentioned last time is that a 3x leverage ETF reflects the daily price volatility of a 100-dollar ETF by multiplying it by 10%. So, if the 1x ETF is at 10,000 won and rises by 10% to 11,000 won, the leverage ETF rises by 30% to 13,000 won. However, if the 1x ETF drops by 9.1% the next day to return to 10,000 won, the leverage ETF drops by 27.3% (3x leverage) to 9,451 won, meaning it actually drops even further.
Therefore, when the base stock fluctuates and moves sideways... The point is that you end up losing money. The main point was that it is structured to rise only slightly when it goes up and fall significantly when it goes down. Then you might think, "This ETF is unfair. It should rise at the same rate when it goes up and fall at the same rate when it goes down, right?" If the base stock went from 10,000 won to 11,000 won and then back to 10,000 won, the leveraged ETF should also rise to 13,000 won and then back to 10,000 won.
Why does it fall more, deceiving naive people?" You might have these thoughts, but to understand this structure, you first need to understand the principles behind how leveraged ETFs are constructed. So, if you watch today's video to the end, you will be able to understand these principles, and from now on, you will be able to say "no" to leverage more than anyone else.
Please watch the video until the end. If you want the fair leverage you are thinking of, you can buy leverage directly without going through an ETF. That is precisely what is called futures and options trading, which has such a fearsome name. If an individual opens a futures and options account, they can buy more futures and options than the money they have.
For example, if you have 1 million won, you can buy 3 million won worth of futures and stocks. So, my You can invest more money than you have and bring in more profit. You deposit 1 million won as collateral and borrow 3 million won worth of futures. This is called setting up a position. From this point on, if you make a profit, it becomes yours, but if you incur a loss, it is deducted from the collateral.
If the stock price rises by 10% during the investment period, the futures value increases from 3 million won to 3.3 million won. If you liquidate at this point, you earn a profit of 300,000 won. Since you invested 1 million won and earned 300,000 won, the rate of return is 30%. If it rises by 20 %, you earn 600,000 won; if it rises by 30%, you earn 900,000 won; and if it rises by 100%, you earn 3 million won.
However, if the stock price falls, the futures value will also drop threefold. If the stock price drops by 10%, the futures value becomes 2.7 million won. If you liquidate at this point, you have lost 300,000 won, and you only receive back 700,000 won after deducting 300,000 won from the collateral.
You have lost 30%. Then, if the stock price continues to fall and drops to 33%, the futures... The price drops from 3 million won to 2.01 million won, a loss of 990,000 won. Since this means almost all of your margin is wiped out, the futures broker calls you. They notify you that you are currently at a 990,000 won loss and your margin has been fully depleted, stating that you must either deposit more margin or face forced liquidation.
At that point, you have to choose between adding more margin or facing forced liquidation. If you face forced liquidation, you lose almost all of your margin and it ends there; you lose your entire investment. The biggest drawback of futures is that if the stock price falls below your margin, you are forcibly liquidated.
If it weren't for futures, you could at least hold on and wait for it to rise, but with futures, you get liquidated the very moment. If the stock price drops by 34% and you get liquidated, no matter how much it rises the next day, it is meaningless because your position has already been cleared. I usually don't tell people not to do things, but please, really, don't do it.
It might be okay to do it once or twice, but once you get intoxicated by the high returns it offers, you won't find anything else interesting and won't be able to do it. If you keep doing that, the end result is eventually forced liquidation—you lose everything. This is intended to make futures and options trading a bit easier.
TF stands for Leveraged ETF. As an example, I have included the product description for the KOSPI 2x Leveraged ETF. It is an investment trust that maintains a stock investment weighting greater than its net assets, aiming to achieve twice the positive daily performance of the stock market. Frequent futures trading takes place or is established depending on stock market volatility; essentially, it is prepaid.
So, what is the difference between an individual doing this directly and doing it through an ETF? From the perspective of an asset management company, there are hundreds, thousands, or tens of thousands of people trading ETFs. Each person has different investment timing and amounts. Some bought three days ago, others two days ago, and others a week ago; some sold everything they bought yesterday today, while others sold only half of what they bought yesterday.
It would be too difficult to create, liquidate, and handle individual positions for each person one by one. Therefore, asset management companies unify positions into a single entity. However, because people buy and sell daily, they set the position validity period to one day to ensure settlements are made each time.
When the market closes, they process all incoming and outgoing funds for that day, use the remaining money to set up a position for another day, and then calculate the profit and loss when the market closes the next day. You process all the incoming and outgoing money, use that money to set up another one-day position, and repeat this process every single day.
That is why leverage is applied to daily price movements. Due to this structure, if the market moves sideways, the principal is bound to be eroded daily. However, because the position duration is short, there is no forced liquidation of extreme positions like the -34% loss mentioned earlier. Even if you hold a leveraged ETF for a whole month, it may feel like your position is maintained for the entire month, but in reality, because positions are set and liquidated on a daily basis, there is a difference between the return over the entire investment period and the actual return.
It states that since it seeks a positive 2x return on a daily basis—both when the underlying index rises and falls—it does not mean you can pursue a cumulative positive 2x return over the entire investment period. Therefore, this type of investment inevitably shows a high turnover rate. Consequently, labor costs increase and fees are expensive.
The reason people are drawn to 3x leveraged ETFs is that the profits are truly enormous; they believe they can earn 3 times their investment, but the maximum return they actually get is 1x. So, when looking at leverage, anyway... You invest thinking, "If the maximum loss is zero whether it's a 1x or 3x investment, would n't it be better to triple your earnings to increase the upside potential?" However, every financial product in the world balances risk and return.
Higher returns mean higher risk. Even with these products, the price must be paid elsewhere for the increased upside potential. If the advantage of higher upside cannot be offset by lower downside, it is compensated for by a lower probability of making money. If the probability of a stock price rising is 20%, consolidating is 60%, and falling is 20%, with regular stocks, you would only lose money on 20%, keep the remaining 60%, and make a profit on 20%.
However, with leverage, you pay the price for the risk of losing money even when the price consolidates or falls. Therefore, if you look at any financial product and feel that the return is high but the risk doesn't seem very high, you have n't properly understood that product. There may be products with low returns and high risk, but there are no products with high returns and low risk.
It is fine if you invest with an understanding of the risks and the mindset that you can handle them. However, if there are people who invest in leveraged products without knowing that, solely looking for high returns, I would strongly advise against it. That was all for today's video. Thank you for subscribing and liking.
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