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so here in this video we will be breaking down what happened last week with all of your good news what to expect this week on the economic calendar and big earnings this week you do have earnings specifically from arm that will be important for broader markets and I am expecting a large move first up let's start with the earnings calendar for this week now there's a lot of different companies that will be reporting earnings none of them are your large cab names your big Tech earnings are over with until you get Nvidia which is still a couple of weeks away but these companies can move their stocks in their sector and there's a lot of different sectors reporting earnings this week first off tomorrow pre-market you have Spirit bio entech you have Tyson bioy and some other random names tomorrow in after hours you have palent here that one's going to be a big one that can move obviously your software stocks and even potentially heavily shorted stocks more I don't want to say meme stocks but more in that sector think that sector you have lucid which can directly affect EV makers and auto companies realy income hims and hers microchip axon teradata and cohort obviously microchip could be important for semiconductors heading into the end of this week when you get some AI earnings Tuesday pre-market you have Walt Disney Celsius data dog Crocs Nicola um Ferrari BP um the go group couple other smaller names as well Disney could be a pretty important one during their path of recovery they've started to kind of outline how they're going to recover if that is continuing well Disney going up could be really good on earnings data dog another one of your AI stocks deemed as an AI stock to some degree so that one could also be important for the broader markets now Tuesday and after hours you have rivan Arista Arista will be huge for the AI trade as well upstart win lift oxy twio toast and some other names Wednesday pre-market you have Uber Shopify affirm ACM research avendelle Toyota Emerson that's actually my son's name Emerson and that's pretty much it Wednesday and after hours you are going to get arm arm's going to be your biggest earnings of this week by far because they do a lot of their business with Nvidia after all Nvidia was trying to buy arm now arm I'm not confident in arm earnings okay why I'm not confident in arm earnings is because the stock is super expensive it is far higher than any kind of fair value that you can put on the stock so even if the earnings are not bad the stock is probably priced for something that is much better than what we're going to get and and and that's why I would be a little bit careful heading into arm earnings now if arm were to outright do bad well the stock could plummet um but my expectation is anywhere from 5 to 10% down for arm the Stock's going to price in at least that for earning so I don't know how much of an options trade for an example there's going to be but arm is uh probably not going to do great I I I'll be surprised if arm goes up after earnings then again they have fallen a lot already but that's just because they were egregiously expensive now it's just expensive still I think uh not really priced accordingly to the business you do have Robin Hood Airbnb am see the trade desk Beyond me app love and energy transfer du lingo and exact science that will also be reporting earnings Airbnb could be another important one for uh specifically you know real estate and travel stock so think that sector Thursday premarket you will have ROBLOX Warner Bros Discovery Giga Cloud technology Sundial plug coronos um Canadian Solar and Cedar Fair Thursday after hours Marathon digital sound hound clean spark Unity uh viix caliber blink and Indie and then Friday pre-market just a bunch of random companies oh quite a few different sectors that will be reporting earnings this week Shopify I I I guess I should have pointed that one out as well Shopify can have an effect on big Tech especially can have an effect on a company like Amazon overall if there was one stock that will move the markets this week it is arm and I'm not confident in arm's earnings but again arm has fallen quite a bit so maybe a a drop would be smaller for arm even if they come in with good or bad earnings I'm just not that confident in arm I mean the stock was just trading at a 1,400 times PE multiple trading at five times the 2028 valuation of Nvidia that that's just not sustainable and you've started to see that come down but it's still trading at a much higher premium than something like Nvidia now as far as the economic data for this week it's a lot of small bits of data a bunch of fed speakers but some of this data can be important and move the market so on Monday you are going to get fed Barkin that will speak um right at about noon fed Williams that speaks at about 100 p.m.
so Following last week and Jerome Powell the markets want to see is the Fed really doish or is Powell just doish but are fed officials starting to see signs of better things right are they starting to see signs of maybe they should start cutting or are they more on the fence that kind of language will be important for stocks this upcoming week so starting off tomorrow morning you're going to get some fed speakers now you're also going to get a loan officer survey this can be very important for judging the state of credit markets if the loan officer survey a very well respected and well follow followed survey if that comes in bad and loan officers are not feeling great yeah that's going to be a problem and um maybe that might drop 10year treasury yields and might um increase the odds of rate Cuts coming sooner but we'll have to wait and see so that is it for Monday for Tuesday you will get fed cash Cari this speaks at 11:30 in the morning a 52 day Bond auction that's that's that's a crazy one a three-year Bond auction and Consumer Credit change Consumer Credit change comes out at 3 p.m.
the last last month we did have a big move based on this because we were expecting consumer credit to go up a lot and it actually did did not so you did get a big move the last Consumer Credit change you had for the month of February this one will be for the month of March and you're expecting around $17 billion so if it comes in lower that means people are not spending as much money if it comes in higher well that means people were spending more money used car prices month over month are expected to come out as well on Tuesday we don't have an exact time on this not sure exactly why and we don't have an exact estimate or expectation not sure exactly why but this data will be important when it does come out on Tuesday Ed car prices year-over-year will also come out last month used car prices year-over year were Nega 14.7% month over month used car prices were negative 0.4% so if that number comes in um anything like that that's probably going to be seen as good at least for inflation now Wednesday you're going to get a lot of oil data and um mortgage data mortgage applications um for last week but fed Jefferson speaks at 11:00 in the morning and you do have a 10-year bond auction at 100 p.m.
these 10-year bond auctions um tell you a lot about supply and demand in the treasury market so if if there's a lot of buying of treasuries that will send 10e treasury yields lower and that will be good for stocks if there's not a lot of people that show up for the 10-year treasury auction then yields will go higher right as it kind of works like a dividend stock if everyone wants to own a dividend stock that you own the yield is going to fall not for you because you bought it already but for anyone else buying it let's say the dividend stock doubles the Yi's going to fall by 50% as long as the dividend stays constant if nobody wants to buy that dividend stock that you own and people are selling that dividend stock well the yield will go higher so more demand for the 10-year treasury auction will cause 10year treasury yields to fall and sometimes you get quite a big reaction now last week you had a big reaction in the treasury markets even on Friday 10year treasury yields fell under 4.5% currently at 4.49 7% so I guess if you're rounding you would round up to 4.5% but 10year treasury yields were down about 7 and 1 12 basis points alone on Friday so that 10-year treasury auction will be in important now you will have fed cook that speaks at 1:30 p.m.
as well on Wednesday and that's pretty much it on Thursday you will have the bank of England interest rate decision you're expecting them to not change rates at all if they do cut rates well that could probably get our markets pretty excited but we'll have to wait and see initial jobless claims will be coming out at 8830 as well on Thursday in the morning at um You're Expecting about 200 and 11,000 initial jobless claims you want to watch this because if we are going to see a labor market that continues to weaken and maybe unemployment continues to rise at some point the initial jobless claims numbers should start to spike and then the markets will interpret a you know lower non Farms number and well more cuts from the Fed so definitely want to be watching that um you are going to get a bunch of ECB fed speakers um not sure if any of that's going to move our markets but you will get a 30-year Bond auction that comes out at 100 p.m.
and same's true with the 10-year Treasury and the 30-year treasury uh depending how demand is for this it can also affect the whole long end of the curve the 10 and the 20year treasury yields as well now that's it for Thursday on Friday you are going to have your biggest data of this week direct data that is your Michigan consumer sentiment survey widely respected survey that's been going on since the 660s um and it comes out at 10:00 in the morning last month the headline number came in at 77.2 the expectation is 78 so you're expecting the sentiment will get a little bit better in the survey the headline number doesn't really matter too much what you really want to watch for is the subcategory so the five year inflation expectations last month that came in at 3% expectation is again 3% any rise there is going to be bad a fall there is obviously good Michigan consumer expectations last month came in at 76 expectation is 77.3 and keep in mind you want the economy to do well you want people to feel optimistic and spend money that's good for company earnings that's good for the S&P 500 earnings you don't want to see inflation expectations rise and you don't want to see the consumer become less confident in a perfect World here you would want to see the economy doing well and inflation coming down so any signs of inflation coming down economy doing well that is specifically good news for our markets so current conditions will also come with this survey last month you came in at 79 You're Expecting 79.5 so higher likely the better there as well and then one-year inflation expectations last month came in at 3.2% the expectation is 3.1% for this rating if you were to see again some big rise in one or fiveyear inflation expectations that's what is going to likely dominate the markets um coming on Friday so that will be very important as you can see it is highlighted in red and then you will get fed goby that speaks at almost 100 p.m.
and um he he's pretty important these days the markets tend to pay attention um to gosby Fed Bar speaks at about 1:30 p.m. he really talks just banking policies won't be important at all and then your inflation numbers will come out for China at 9:30 p.m. on Friday markets will be closed but that's definitely something to pay attention to so kind of breaking all of this down again for arm earnings on Wednesday I think that's the biggest wild card as I said the stock has fallen a lot if you're looking at a weekly Candlestick chart the week of April 19th arm fell about 31% it's not as badly priced as it was before it's still super expensive and I'm really not expecting a huge collapse I'm not expecting a huge rally either now if arm obviously misses then you can see a a large decline but I think the real question is does arm affect just your AI stocks like Nvidia and um you know who knows right your other AI stocks I don't think arm will affect AMD or smci or or those other stocks that have already reported earnings but I think arm could specifically impact Nvidia now would that cause a sell-off in the markets if arm were to fall and Nvidia were to sell off in sympathy I don't know I think overall though for this week excluding arm and considering let's say arm is just a nothing Burger earnings it doesn't do much of anything I think there's going to still be a lot of digestion from last week's good news you guys got to keep in mind big money they don't move around their portfolios quickly okay um and there's a a lot of a reason to buy especially your small cap stocks that's the area in which I'm bullish for in terms of upside I don't think there's a lot of upside left in the NASDAQ um sure 5% or so to get back to altime highs of course that's that's still there but I I think with a 20% move still needed to get back to all-time highs in small camps there's a lot of upside potential here and even as you know some well-known investment figures have said before like Tom Lee still expecting a 50% rally in small caps this year I I would I would assume if you asked him today he's not expecting anything that drastic but maybe a 20% rally Maybe to test alltime highs Again by the end of the year in small caps would not surprise me that's probably what someone like Tom Lee would say if you were to ask him right now so I think there's still a huge reason to be bullish on small caps and I think this week you'll see a lot more money positioning into those small cap stocks so I like iwm more this week but the NASDAQ also is at a very interesting level you got rejected at that 50-day moving average if you continue higher from here then you're going to be flirting with all-time highs pretty quickly if not I mean you're going to trade in between these three moving averages 50-day moving average here at uh $436 20 your 20-day moving average at $430 per share and your 100 day moving average at $426 per share um so I think you really want to watch the moving averages if you're into the technicals because the NASDAQ just trades so well based off of them um but I'm not expecting any kind of big drop this week I think this week's going to be a lot more bullish than bearish then again there is the whole sell and may go away situation um I don't know how much that has actually followed these days that can also have an implication to the markets but the contrarian in me would say if that's what people are saying selling may go away markets probably rally anyways
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