저자: MarcFaber&JohnRubino · 외국인
요약 보기
금 가격 하락을 금 자체보다 달러 가치 하락으로 설명하며 금 장기 보유를 옹호. 최근 조정은 바닥 형성 과정이며 은은 50달러, 금은 4000~3500달러 지지선 제시. 계절성상 8~11월 수요 증가 기대. 달러 기축통화 지위 약화와 다극화 전망, 지정학(이란 전쟁) 리스크 언급. 개별 매수보다 분할 매수·장기 관점 권고, 딜러 프리미엄 확대로 금속 ETF 활용 제안.
다듬은 글
the currency loses its purchasing power. I can say that gold has not gone up. It is the dollar that has lost value. Therefore, more and more dollars are needed to buy an ounce of gold. I can say that gold has risen from $35 in 1971 to over $4,000 now. Or I could say that gold remains stable. It is the dollar that has plummeted against gold and silver.
Gold and silver continued to fall, leaving a large inventory of high-priced gold stranded with dealers and, as you know, destabilizing many of them. Therefore, I believe there is an increasing amount of support as they go down from here. As you know, silver at $50 an ounce is going to have massive support, and gold, if it falls below $4000 and stays there, then it's $3500, where there is a lot of support.
And if seasonality continues to matter this time, then we should be heading for a better time for gold and silver in the coming months. And, uh, you know, let's hope they've fallen. They have already fallen enough. I think there has been a brutal contraction or consolidation. And I think it's time for gold and silver to start rising again.
A little tip before we begin. If this video helps you in any way, please give it a like and share it with a friend. These small actions tell YouTube that people are enjoying the video, which helps it reach more viewers. The record rise in gold raises a central question. Does it indicate growing wealth or the rapid decline of paper money?
As economic uncertainty increases, more investors are turning to precious metals to protect themselves against inflation and monetary instability . Mark Faber argues that gold has remained a reliable store of value for decades. While fiat currencies have steadily lost purchasing power, he points to the rise of gold from $35 an ounce in 1971 to over $4,000 today as evidence that currency devaluation, rather than a dramatic increase in the intrinsic value of gold, is the real story.
John Rubino points out that the recent pullbacks in gold and silver caused short-term suffering for investors and dealers. But such corrections could have established firmer support for the next upward move. He argues that silver, as it approaches $50 an ounce, could attract significant buying interest, while gold appears to have support around $4,000 and perhaps near $ 3,500 during periods of volatility.
Both analysts believe that precious metals are a key hedge against inflation, rising debt, and monetary uncertainty, and that improved market conditions could pave the way for another powerful advance. don't know what the new monetary system will be like, but it seems to me that the US and Western Europe have taken measures or economic policies that are destructive to the US dollar as a reserve currency.
Let's put it this way. If you have a reserve currency, the pound sterling or the Spanish real, as they did in the 16th century, or now the US dollar, you shouldn't antagonize the large holders of dollar reserves. You understand? No. Let's say you expropriate or freeze Russia's accounts, other countries will ask: well, what about us?
When will the US freeze our assets? And in my opinion, these asset freeze policies are a disaster for the US dollar as a reserve currency. And that's why I personally believe it's unlikely that the US dollar will survive for the next five years. I believe the US dollar will cease to be the world's reserve currency.
You can argue whatever you want against the US dollar. The euro is even worse. I mean, there's nothing about paper money that appeals to me. But what attracts me, and has attracted me for the last 40 years for the same reasons, is, for example , gold. It has now risen significantly and the correction may continue for some time.
But if you ask Mark, " Which is the safest currency?" I would say gold. But what is safe? If people could be locked down by stupid governments during COVID, the government could tell people they have to close their shop and do this and that, and maybe the government would take a whole day off. Who knows?
I believe that kind of gold standard is possible. It's not my prediction, but I think it's possible. And, uh, your question is very good because people are wondering, if the US dollar ceases to be the world currency, the reserve currency, what will replace it? That's a big unknown. But I think we are moving, possibly, into a multipolar world where you have, you know, China is a major country and will have a sphere of influence, and then the US is a major country and has a sphere of influence, and Europe has a sphere of influence, and there are many others who will have some influence in their region, and that's what's called a multipolar world.
And then, uh, someone, an ambitious leader who's a little crazy, might decide, "Yes, I want to expand my empire," and then he'll attack someone else, and so on. We don't know, but as an investor, it's something to consider: what would happen if there were a global conflict? I mean, you know, I mean, how an asset, a stock like Nidia could be here and it could be 90% lower or it could be 90% higher.
It is very difficult to assign a value to the assets at this time. In my opinion, silver is more volatile and in a bull market it can rise more than gold. But equally, personally, I have much more gold and silver. Look , everyone does different things. And some people hold gold as insurance. And I, like me, have had gold for 40 years or so.
And there were times when it wasn't a good investment, but I think overall, especially in recent years, it was a good investment. And it's kept me from doing other stupid things. Well, no, I think I accept the argument. If someone comes to me and says, "Mar, I invested in this company, let's say Microsoft or Apple, 20 years ago, and I've earned much more than you in gold," and I say, "Yes, different objectives.
One is a producing company that generates profits , and the other is an asset, a non- productive asset that essentially depends on the currency to lose its purchasing power." I can argue that gold has not gone up. It is the dollar that has lost value. Therefore, more and more dollars are needed to buy an ounce of gold.
You understand? I can argue that gold has risen from $35 in 1971 to over $4,000 now. Or I could say that gold remains stable. It is the dollar that has collapsed against gold and silver. The global monetary system is at a turning point, as confidence in the US dollar comes under pressure. This interview explores how reserve currencies can lose confidence when large holders of dollar reserves feel exposed to asset freezes, sanctions, and unpredictable economic policies.
It also compares the US dollar with the euro and other paper currencies. While it points to gold as a historical store of value in the face of monetary uncertainty, this segment thoroughly analyzes dollarization, global finance, the risk of reserve currencies, inflation, central bank policy, and the future of money.
Now, let's get back to the interview . Asians like to give gold and silver jewelry as wedding gifts and tend to hold their weddings in spring, which means jewelers who need to buy gold and silver as raw materials to make jewelry have to do their shopping in autumn. Therefore, there tends to be much more demand in August, September, October, and November, on those days.
That's what makes the price go up. Although, as you know, seasonality hasn't been a big problem lately because so many other crazy things have been happening. But, uh, historically, it's true. That type of trend does occur. Therefore, there is pressure on prices, buying pressure that drives prices up in winter and early spring, and then jewelers stop buying at that time .
Therefore, demand decreases and a summer stagnation occurs for gold and silver in May, June, and July. And now we're in that situation, you know? Therefore, it shouldn't surprise us too much that gold and silver have entered a sort of boring streak where they rose in 2025, fell sharply earlier this year, and are now consolidating.
Therefore, that fits with the seasonality. And if seasonality continues to be a significant factor this time around, then we should be looking at a better time for gold and silver in the coming months. And, uh, you know, let's hope they've fallen. They have already fallen enough. I think there has been a brutal contraction or consolidation.
And I think it's time for gold and silver to start rising again. But, you know, we still have some important factors, especially geopolitical ones right now. We have the war with Iran that is far from over, and Trump is being briefed on what it would take to completely invade the country and things like that .
We could be back in the midst of war, which would drive up the price of oil and put pressure on gold and silver. You know that kind of scenario is still very possible. So don't see seasonality as the only factor right now and go all in because you have other things going on. And, in general, don't try to trade in this market.
Simply do things consistently and expect the fundamentals to win in the short term. I think there's a growing amount of support as they go down from here. You know, silver at $50 an ounce is going to have massive support, and gold, if it falls below $4000 and stays there, then it will be at $3500, where there is a lot of support.
Those figures are not that far from where we are right now . So, I think the worst possible scenario right now is overshadowed by the best possible scenario in this space. And you know, I made a lot of low bids when things were sinking here and I just got hit with the final blow. So now I have no mixed feelings .
You know, I'd be happy if gold and silver bottomed out here and then took off, but you can never know things like that for sure. So, again, don't make big moves based on market theses . You know, add things little by little. I think you can buy high-quality gold and silver mining rigs from here , and many of the mid-level ones and some of the exploration rigs have dropped by 50% now.
Therefore, many of those things are much more attractive now than they were a few months ago, and their upside potential is proportionally spectacular. Therefore, I think if you have favorite stocks that you feel you missed out on during the big rally, review them and start thinking about what the entry point would be to finally buy into them .
And I believe this is an appropriate time to carry out something like this. I mean , but we shouldn't let what we think is going to happen in the next month or two dominate our investment strategy. We should do stable things like averaging the cost in dollars and making low bids , things like that because it's very difficult, to the point of being impossible, to predict when markets will occur, especially in these markets, you know, with President Trump being so unpredictable.
Fundamentals don't matter, but whatever was published in Truth last night at 4:00 in the morning is what ends up dominating the current market. So do n't try to trade it. Simply have a long- term vision and then consistently build upon that long-term vision. But lately what has happened with gold and silver traders, especially silver traders, is that the prices of metals rose a lot and that led many people to cash out.
You know, they took the family's silverware and jewelry and some of their coins and loose change to the merchants, and the merchants made many purchases. But then gold and silver continued to fall, which left a lot of high-priced inventory stranded with brokers and, as you know, destabilized many of them.
So what they did was widen their differentials. So they pay you less when you try to sell and charge you more when you try to buy. And I usually say, okay, buy the same amount each month at the average cost in dollars, or the same amount in dollars each month. And now might not be the best time for that because agents, their business models, aren't working quite right now and they have to overcharge you.
So, if you want to continue applying the average cost in dollars with your stacking, you might want to look at physical ETFs, which don't have that huge premium built in, or even a mining stock ETF, which buys the big mining companies. And, as you know, that's not without risk at all, but it is relatively so compared to most of the rest of the stock market.
Well, do it for a while and let dealer premiums rise again, and then you can start buying in person again. Are the greatest opportunities in the precious metals market still ahead rather than behind? As investors continue to grapple with shifting economic conditions, fluctuating market sentiment, and an increasingly unpredictable global landscape , successful investing rarely consists of reacting to every headline.
It's about staying focused on the big picture and recognizing that significant trends often take time to fully develop. The coming months could bring new catalysts, new challenges, and unexpected market movements that change the outlook for gold, silver, and mining stocks. Staying informed and disciplined can be just as important as identifying the right opportunities .
Although no one can predict exactly what will happen, investors who follow market developments, manage risk carefully, and remain patient are usually better positioned when major trends begin to develop . We will closely follow key stories, market signals, and major investment opportunities, and bring you the latest insights as they emerge.
If you enjoyed this analysis, please so you don't miss our next updates. Thanks for watching the video and see you in the next one.
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