저자: MarcFaber&AlasdairMacleod · 외국인
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서방 자본시장이 고갈되고 있어 은 가격에 큰 영향을 줄 것이라 주장. 2025년 10월 7일 LBMA 은 대여금리 40% 급등이 은 가격 상승의 계기였다고 함. 중국의 희토류 통제가 은으로 확대되었고 미국이 은을 핵심광물로 지정한 것이 배경이라 주장. 중국 은 수입 1,628톤 기록. 중국 경제는 부동산·인구감소 문제가 있으나 기술(전기차 등)은 서방을 앞선다고 평가하며 홍콩 주식을 중국 투자 방법으로 제시.
다듬은 글
Returning to silver, we find ourselves in a situation where we continue to see that Western capital markets are becoming depleted, and that is going to have a major impact on the price of silver in the future. Literally, in 2 or 3 weeks, we had a sudden crisis at the LBMA when the silver leasing rate shot up by 40%.
I believe it was October 7th of last year, and that was when the price of silver really took off. And this year we continue to have a growing shortage of silver worldwide. The Chinese have a lot of innovation and inventions, and I think the world will be surprised by the economic advances taking place outside of Europe and the US.
In many sectors of the economy, the Chinese are far ahead of the Western world. In this debate, Alistair Mloud and Mark Faber focus on the growing pressure within global financial markets and its potential impact on silver. Mloud points out that Western capital markets appear to be running out of steam, a development that, in his opinion, could greatly influence the price of silver in the coming months.
It points to a sudden crisis at the London Bullion Market Association, where, reportedly, the silver leasing rate rose sharply, creating conditions that helped silver prices rise. According to him, the world now faces a growing shortage of silver, and this supply pressure could become an important factor that investors should take into account.
Mark Faber adds a broader global perspective, emphasizing economic changes outside of Europe and the United States. He points out that China is making rapid progress in innovation, technology, and many sectors of the economy. In his opinion, the West may be surprised by how far China and other non-Western economies have progressed .
Together, Mloud and Faber suggest that silver shortages, shifting capital flows, and rising Asian economic power could reshape global markets as investors reconsider where real value can be preserved in times of uncertaint. China was the main refiner of imported silver dory. So, what I could see is that you had this kind of triangle operating basically where China controlled the price.
Look at it this way. China ends with a dory. Let's say JP and Morgan are in the middle of this deal and the payment is arranged through JP Morgan. Then there's a silver position if you want to hedge, which is made or managed by JP Morgan in the market, and I think JP Morgan was given quite a bit of discretion to do so.
The point is that when this dollar came onto the market, it was the means by which the price of silver was contained. This is the key to understanding. I remember that the head of the raw materials division was also there at that time. I mean, there were all sorts of rumors that JP Morgan was holding down the price of silver and that they were managing a huge holding.
In September of last year, President Trump threatened China with tariffs. The reasons, I mean, were 100% tariffs at the time. The reasons are not important. However , China's response was to impose severe restrictions on its rare earth exports, which was aimed at pressuring President Trump, who immediately backed down.
What we didn't know at the time was that there had also been a policy change regarding silver. At that time, it became known that, although there had been talk of a new licensing regime since the beginning of this year and all the rest, from that moment on the restriction on rare earths also extended to silver.
Because? Because around that time, the United States announced that silver was now a critical mineral. Consequently, they expect to accumulate silver because it is a fundamental mineral. It is used for defense purposes, etc. And, of course, as far as we know, they do not have any kind of silver reserves.
So, from China's point of view, is it really going to turn around and supply this silver to the United States, after having denied it rare earth elements? No. It was quite clear that silver also had to be included in this. This wasn't made public, but literally in 2 or 3 weeks we had a sudden crisis at the LBMA when the silver leasing rate shot up by 40%.
I believe it was October 7th of last year, and that was when the price of silver really took off. And so we continue in this current year. If we look at what China has been doing with its silver imports, it imported a record 1,628 tons of silver earlier this year. And that's something that has continued.
We do not have complete import statistics . But we could see that an additional 367 tons were sent from the United Kingdom to Hong Kong . I mean, this is something substantial. Having gone from being, so to speak, the price manager by happily exporting large quantities of silver to world markets, it is now contracting the supply of silver.
And this also sounds familiar in the gold market because it also continues to import gold in substantial quantities. But going back to silver, we find ourselves in this situation where we continue to see that Western capital markets are drying up, and that's going to have a big impact on the price of silver in the future.
Alazer Mloud analyzes a powerful change that is taking place in the global silver market. It explains how China once played a pivotal role in refining imported silver and, through the structure of international payments and hedging, helped to influence the flow of silver to Western markets. But now the situation has changed.
After the United States classified silver as a critical mineral, China's restrictions on rare earth exports appear to have extended to silver, restricting supply at a crucial time. Alazair links this policy change to the sudden tension in the London bullion market, where silver rates soared and prices rose.
It also highlights China's record silver imports, the continued accumulation of gold, and the growing capital flight from Western markets. The analysis points to a deeper geopolitical struggle for strategic resources, monetary metals, and financial power. For investors who monitor inflation, supply chains, and global tensions, the impact could be enormous.
It's fascinating to see why silver might be entering a different phase. Let 's begin the interview. Today, China is in a state where it is unlikely to generate growth for the world economy, as it said in 2010, 2011 and on previous occasions. But its economy as a whole is doing well, but it is not doing particularly well in one sector, which is real estate, which continues to be an obstacle, but as prices have fallen, the real estate sector has become more affordable.
So that's positive, and the economy is now essentially facing one obstacle to growth, which is a declining population, and especially a declining young population . But the Chinese, as you know, and most people don't seem to realize, in many sectors of the economy the Chinese are far ahead of the Western world, but light years ahead in terms of technology.
If we look at cars, I mean , in theory, the Chinese automotive industry could wipe out the entire Western automotive industry because they can produce cars at about half the price of Western companies. It's incredible. And they are very technologically advanced. And the same thing happens in other sectors .
That's why, when people talk to me about the bright future of AI and so on, yes, maybe so. But the Chinese may produce all of India. I believe one way for investors to participate in China is to buy Hong Kong stocks, because it's a kind of guarantee on China and the city. Of course, the real estate market declined, and there was a problem in the real estate sector that, to some extent, still exists.
But if I look at cities in England, Germany, Baltimore, San Francisco, Chicago, and Cleveland in the United States, I'll tell you: when you have a family and children who go to school, you may enjoy that your children can walk to school and don't need a bodyguard to take them and bring them back home, and that you don't need three guards watching over your house when you sleep at night.
You understand? The security in Hong Kong, Singapore, and Bangkok, by the way , is very high compared to everywhere else. I mean, I shouldn't say this on television, but I don't have a key to my office or my house . My door is always open. I mean, the view in the Western world is still that China produces Nike shoes and sells them to Nike, and Nike distributes them in the US.
so this no longer exists. I mean, the Chinese have a lot of innovation and inventions, and I think the world will be surprised by the economic advances that are taking place outside of Europe and the US. So to summarize this debate, the most important message here is not that China is finished or that the West has already lost.
The real issue is that the global economic map is changing faster than many investors, policymakers, and ordinary people are willing to admit. China may no longer be the unstoppable growth engine it appeared to be in the years following the financial crisis. And yes, it still faces significant pressure from the real estate sector, an aging population, and a declining young population.
But at the same time, it would be a big mistake to focus solely on those problems and ignore the progress that is taking place beneath the surface in key areas such as electric vehicles, manufacturing efficiency, automation, consumer technology, and even future-oriented sectors like artificial intelligence.
China is no longer limited to copying or producing cheap goods for Western brands. It is competing, innovating and, in some areas, already setting the pace. Therefore, the old view of China as a low-cost factory does not really explain the world we are moving in. For investors, the lesson is to keep an open mind.
Opportunities don't always come from the most familiar or comfortable places. Sometimes, the best value appears where sentiment is bad, expectations are low, and the market as a whole has already written off a region. Hong Kong, as mentioned, can be for some investors a way to view China from a different perspective, considering valuations and long-term optionality.
At the same time, this conversation goes beyond the markets. The world is becoming more multipolar, and the next wave of growth may come from places that many people in Europe and America still underestimate. If you found this discussion helpful, please so you don't miss our next in-depth analysis of markets, geopolitics, and the forces transforming the global economy. Okay.
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