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it would seem that elon has just about finished selling his stock it's been well over a month now since another controversial tweet from elon musk asking the twitter community if he should sell 10 of his tesla stock as a result the stock price dropped from not far off its high somewhere in the 1200s and due to elon's sell-off and the market's reaction the stock price actually reached lows of sub 900 on a couple of occasions but the fact that elon has sold the shares he was planning on or if not all of them entirely the end is now at least in sight this seems to have been received well by the market it was not only the news of elon selling off his stock but the physical selling itself that's been affecting the stock price then when you add on omicron scares to this the stock price dropped as much as over 25 in about the space of a month the stock price became actually lower than it had been at the start of 2021 almost one year on and the stock price lower than the high for january yes sometimes the stock price does get ahead of the company the market overreact particularly with tesla and the ev industry in general i'm not sure people realize yet that the ev industry is incredibly slow to grow look how long it has taken tesla so far and tesla still won't hit a million deliveries for this year but one year later with a growth company not to mention the nasdaq also up 50 over that same period so just to reiterate a highly successful growth company was the same price it was nearly a year ago whilst the market had risen 50 percent there are times when tesla gets seriously discounted this was one of them assuming no major market crash on the way as that's generally how these runs end oh and over that year we saw that tesla shanghai factory already has about twice the capacity we were told and likely much higher we also witnessed these two enormous new factories successfully built with minimal issues just some permits and regulation to get sorted with germany these two projects were a success along with the 4680 built vehicles soon to come off these lines and all of the other events that we saw this year such as the model s plaid successfully becoming the quickest production car in the world likely as a result of using some of the chemistry from the 4680 batteries and of course ai day further ensuring the future of fsd for tesla although i say tesla's core products will be their batteries tesla's main profit potential is going to come from their software and ai in the likes of fsd it will not only be incredibly profitable it will transform transportation and commerce as we know it anyway i bought some options when the price was around 1020 about almost a month ago as it looked like a good price then i then recently managed to magic up some more money and transferred it into my trading account sometimes it really does feel like i just pull money out of thin air however way possible so i can make sure i can get in when tesla is really on sale of course the funds took a few days to transfer and the stock price was sub 950 now and even dipping lower at times i thought i was a little bit late in getting in by the time my money transferred but elon still wasn't finished selling either so i put a really silly offer in for march 18 2022 call options with a strike price of one thousand dollars the order executed for just 66 dollars per share since i bought it two days in a row before christmas tesla's stock price was surging i'm already up 150 in two days and i think it looks to be continuing that trajectory i'm expecting tesla to recover all of this week i'm hoping to see the price at 1100 later this week although that would now only require a three percent gain there is possibly a little more selling to come from elon but the market is possibly too strong now and to support this price level the market just wants to know what tesla's stock price will be once elon is done selling and we don't have any major macro scares personally i think there is little reason for it not to return to twelve hundred dollars again for those of you also with call options doing something similar to me then you all seem to have options in february and march too these options get to cover delivery numbers earnings report and the earnings call the deliveries will likely be higher than expectations and i'm expecting earnings per share to possibly be about 50 higher than the previous quarter the earnings call is particularly important this quarter too as elon is back perhaps elon will still be on the end of the year earnings calls from now on as he has said he will no longer be doing the earnings calls but in this earnings elon is going to give us the new road map to tesla there could be a lot of very interesting and exciting things mentioned there along with new potential targets perhaps an lfp reveal a 4680 production target estimated capacities of the new buildings timelines for regulation on fsd specifications on the new 4680 model wise a compact tesla reveal and of course an update on the cybertruck launch this will all hopefully give us an idea of what to expect for the year and what to anticipate in the way of these new factories this is a big deal as i think it needs to be explained that nothing overly dramatic might be happening for much of the first half of the year i think this year we'll start with a bang record deliveries record earnings new factory opening 4680 launch i think all of these events occurring within close proximity to each other will maintain some good momentum in the stock price but by about march when these events should be wrapped up at least hopefully the new factories are fully operational by that stage but texas doesn't have to open so much as the announcement of the opening party at least as an indicator i think each of these events could bump the stock price up 100 or so therefore i think it possible not necessarily likely that tesla hits fifteen hundred dollars sometime early next year depending on how these events play out but thirteen hundred to fourteen hundred dollars sure feels likely again if these events all happen in this small period of time it could just be a lot of momentum at once for the company either way macro events aside it's not unreasonable to expect a new all-time high and i'm sure most of you agree with me i put my money where my mouth is that don't seem to be that many times the tesla stars align like this so i'm taking advantage of it of course with options comes the tactic of selling too it can be easy to sell too early before you doubled your money again or hang on too long and lose half but it currently feels like there is still more momentum left in the market for tesla stock tesla owners just received a christmas present from tesla 2 with a new operating system in the car it's much better and gives a better idea or sense of how app-oriented it is becoming just helps you grasp at further paradigms of where this product is headed i've got to say it's so good now to be talking about tesla as an owner too my thoughts are though that after these major events then we will feel a lull there may not be much more excitement for a while whilst we see these new factories ramping up profit margins will be lower profits may also be lower ramping speeds may not be as fast as shanghai there may be production line issues with the 4680s basically it's going to take a while for tesla to prove they can ramp up these new factories and there are a lot of new variables involved which means potential issues could arise but at this stage i can't see too much coming up to push the stock price but this is tesla and you always want to be holding even if the stock price might dip a little and remember it may only be dipping from 1500 down to 1200 which is still a pretty good price there are other events that might also come up to increase confidence though a new factory announcement would give a boost but we've been told not to expect a new factory for some time but this refers to a new factory location i think tesla would keep building new factories pretty much immediately once these current factories are completed on the existing sites the austin site is absolutely enormous we're expecting the buildings to potentially increase about five-fold still the same is true for berlin an increase of about four times the factory size to be built over time what is stopping tesla building them out immediately well as long as tesla can build battery factories with them then there isn't too much constrained to their growth they have all the funds they need supply chain issues likely improved soon enough and enough construction crew as they just completed the previous buildings so i think current factory expansion might help the stock price a little i think no reveal and some specs of the compact tesla should also give the stock price a boost hopefully tesla is still managing to target that 25 000 price point although that might be a bit harder with the inflation we're witnessing but the fact tesla reveals a car actually for the masses at least masses and developed nations a car that was not previously thinkable to so many consumers in fact buying a new car in general was not something a lot of the consumers ever considered before a the compact this should add excitement in the market and sometime next year i really hope tesla gives us another battery day and present the lfp batteries although it will likely go over the head of most investors like the first battery day it would be great to understand how much of a role lfp will play in tesla's future but it may not boost the stock price as much as it should tesla's 4680 battery day did very little for the stock price i don't think it would be fully valued until the new factories ramp up and we finally see the extra profit margin 4680 batteries have generated but that stock price is for you they often play the short game and can't look into the future so much it's like the saying a bird in the hand is worth two in the bush except the stock price is worth more like 10 in the bush well tesla still has a lot of birds in the bush
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