저자: TeslaEconomist · 외국인
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테슬라 주가는 10월 700대에서 11월 1250 부근까지 급등 후 머스크 지분 매각(세금 목적)과 Hertz 계약 불확실성으로 900~1150 박스권 조정. 발언자는 미실현이익 과세의 비효율을 주장하며 주가는 여전히 강한 성장주로 변동성은 정상이라 봄. 옵션 위주 트레이딩을 하며 단기 조정 시 매수 전략을 언급. 향후 Hertz 주문, 베를린·텍사스 공장, 실적 발표 등 이벤트로 단기 1500 가능성, 조정 시 1200~1300 지지 전망.
다듬은 글
tesla's stock price has been through a lot lately i thought we could have a quick review as to what's been going on i'd like to start off though by reminding you that the stock was still trading in the 700s in only october about two months ago just to put things in perspective and then quickly hit about 12 50 in early november the stock price was full steam ahead the hurt still seemed to be some sort of catalyst that was required for further market validation on top of a record-breaking q3 earnings report yes almost all quarterly earnings are record-breaking but this was better than the market anticipated like i said i wanted to put things into perspective to acknowledge where we are and where we might be headed and as they say if in doubt zoom out if you recall once the stock started running past the 1200s elon calm the market down on twitter explaining there has been no contract signed with the hurts deal and that it made little difference to tesla as they can't make enough cars anyway so that did chill the stock price somewhat but if that wasn't enough then elon decided to play politics elon asked on twitter if he should sell 10 of his shares to pay tax now we know that he did have a tax bill coming up anyway to exercise his options and although he could have possibly borrowed money to do this well i'm not sure having over 10 billion dollars of debt is nice for anyone at least when you don't have any income being generated from said debt it's different with property or with stocks that offer dividends perhaps so elon basically had to sell some stock either way but why not try and make the most of it at the same time startup poll on twitter of which i would guess he was fairly certain what the end result would be this way he got to look like a hero doing what people decided and paying his taxes not only that he got to demonstrate how taxing unrealized gains cost significantly more than the tax it generates i.e wiping something like one quarter a trillion dollars of tesla's stock price and essentially a lot of people's retirement accounts in order to pay only five billion dollars in tax yes just five billion dollars because we're only accounting for the tax from the capital gains from the sale the tax from exercising the options is nothing to do with the sale in this scenario and then the government only end up spending about 30 cents on the dollar of what they receive which means one and a half billion dollars will go to the intended government cause at a cost of around 250 billion dollars hence why you shouldn't tax unrealized gains but not only that we can't even assume said one half billion dollars will actually even do any good as like elon recently said government have proven themselves to be terrible at asset allocation when compared to successful businesses that has literally demonstrated great asset allocation hence the success of the business at the end of this elon will also have about 10 billion or so left over which he must have earmarked for something some people think he will inject some more funds into space spacex personally i don't think that's necessary spacex can likely raise 20 billion whenever they want simply by floating starlink there was talk of helping world hunger but that's not as simple as people just think and then the one i think which is most likely the texas institute of technology and science where elon can create even more vertical integration for tesla by educating his own engineers specifically for tesla and spacex at the time of this video i think elon is approaching not far off three quarters of his tesla stock sale whilst also exercising options that are further adding to his position more than he is selling once finished elon would like to have a few million more shares than he started with oh and 10 billion dollars therefore one way you could look at it as just one big payday for him it must be nice for him to finally have some money sure he's had enough for mentions and things but some serious cash that he can really do something with i look forward to the same i'm getting a bit tired of never having any money as i have such an expensive addiction buying tester shares but i think this might be coming to an end but i've also said that several times before it's just so addictive especially when it dips oh well we'll have to see all right so this is really bad news for the stock price hearing two percent of the entire share count being sold off and it being the most influential member of the company doing it the ceo techno king and founder yes i refer to elon as a founder of tesla it is his heart and soul that went into the company along with something like 85 percent of the early capital as we've seen since his sell-off period it has had a huge impact on the stock price just about every day elon sells we see the stock price get hit possibly around a 2 drop but when he's not selling we do often see the stock price coming back it has been bobbing around 1 000 to 11.50 all month with a few touches of mid 900 until people quickly realized that it's simply too low for tesla and start buying up there seems to be some solid resistance around that point despite 950 being the all-time high just in late october it really does feel like the stock price has entered a new cycle now somewhere between 1200 compared to around 650 and 750 we've been seeing throughout most part of the year i'm also of the belief that we should hit a new cycle after all these exciting events occur later around the corner perhaps trading between twelve hundred and fourteen hundred dollars at a guess but on top of elon talking down the hertz deal and selling his shares we've had a scare with omicron which could have generated potential liquidity issues in the market although it looks like we might be all right on that front but that one did give me a little scare particularly for some people i talk to and respect heavily in the bitcoin community who specialize more in the macro side of economics which meant i didn't end up buying that dip this is generally my trading strategy remember i said trading wait for some blood on the streets and then pay attention when it looks like a good buying opportunity then wait for it to dip that a little bit more perhaps another five percent or so if it was good to buy then then it's great to buy now and i may only wait for a few events like that a year this is for trading options mind you which is a different game i haven't actually ever traded shares with tesla i just find options that much more exciting i suppose also with options you only really need to be right once out of three or five times depending on the return you receive i think my highest return was 1600 coming out of the covered credit crunch in early 2020.
i also let everyone know what i've bought in real time on twitter so if you want to stay up to date with my trades it's sensible to follow me there and now we've also heard that everground defaulted on its debt we had a reasonable dip back in august i think it was when they were first showing signs of weaknesses if you recall i did purchase some leaps on that occasion and they've done quite well ever since but everground defaulting this was kind of expected and somewhat baked into the market but on that day of the announcement tesla did fall about six percent then we had this hole build up to december the 9th which i didn't make any videos on as i didn't expect much to happen and it turned out just to be a lot of empty hyperbole but did possibly affect the stock price little i think a lot of investors were hoping for some big news to be announced yes elon has been cryptic in the past and given hints on twitter but i think people went too far down the rabbit hole on this one anyway despite all these events which in my opinion were quite major we're still holding up above one thousand dollars and often back to above eleven hundred i believe the stock is showing a lot of resilience here i think this is a really good sign despite how volatile it's been lately well it's been acting this way for good reason in reality i would say this feels quite solid but you have to face the fact that this is a high growth stock still despite it already being valued around 1 trillion we've barely gotten started and growth stocks do have volatility it takes a long time to rent batteries as everyone else is slowly discovering it is an exponential process but not only that we have lots of exponentials in play with tesla that the other ev companies simply don't have going for them such as the ability to ramp up battery production at such a faster rate than everyone else vehicles that will likely soon take one quarter of the time on the production line compared to the competition we're still at the start of the growth if you're a true hodder then get over the fact we're down 20 or so from our all-time high it's short-sightedness either you believe in this company and leader or you don't at today's stock price i think we're at the equivalent of a pe ratio of around 100 relative to what q4 earnings might be and we aren't even at five percent of the vehicle production rate we expect later this decade 20 times more to come and with economies of scale it likely means a lot more than 20 times the profits not to mention energy poised to be just as big and this doesn't factor in the ai i.e rubber taxis and auto bidder so that's potentially perhaps 100 times the profits later this decade and we're definitely not factoring humanoid robots into that but look these are not smartphones it takes a really long time to make this many batteries we're talking the difference of 10 watt hours in a phone compared to 60 kilowatt hours in a ev do you understand that is 6 000 times the battery size this is why it takes so long this is why there'll be no one else catching tesla up this is why tesla can raise their prices and demand still increases but we're not robots we are human and we still have emotions and like to see the stock price keep rising well luckily for everyone there are still a few events around the corner we have the hertz order semi-truck launching 46 eddy batteries and vehicles berlin and texas opening q4 deliveries and earnings elon on the earnings call outlining the road map for tesla the ev rebate and who knows maybe even a potential split and this is just all within the next couple of months and tesla aren't dropping everything they're doing after that either it is continually all hands on deck but in the excitement of all this it may be possible for the stock to bump to as high as 1 500 perhaps i'm not saying it will stay there i'm just saying it's possible it might hit that and i put my money where my mouth is but i would hope we see a new high sometime then and it may settle back to 1200 or 1300 which is still a great place to be oh and also elon will soon stop selling off his shares too of course we have to hope for no made in negative macro news either look i'll just say it we've been very spoiled especially those of you who have seen 20 times or 100 times returns already we have to remember even a 50 return in the year is outstanding sometimes we need to get realistic and i know we have some big hopes for 2025 or 2026 but even a three thousand dollar stock price then is a fantastic return too
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