저자: 미상 · 한국인
요약 보기
S&P500 4배 레버리지 ETN(속칭 '크레이지 4x')을 소개하며 상품 구조와 일간 리밸런싱으로 인한 장기 보유 시 손실 위험을 설명한다. 프로스펙터스 예시로 등락 반복 시 지수 2% 상승에도 4x 상품은 5% 손실, 하락 시 원금 94% 손실 사례를 든다. 변동성이 높을수록 손실 확률이 커지므로 레버리지는 단기 매매용이며, 강세장이 확실할 때 공격적으로 활용하라고 주장한다.
다듬은 글
My Rich Man," providing the fastest ETF information in Korea. A " Crazy ETF" was launched a week ago. It is a product that leverages the S&P 500 index four times, or 400%. It is read as "4x" because it consists of four xxxs. Although the product structure is technically an ETN, I will refer to it as an ETF for convenience.
I will explain the difference between ETNs and ETNs in a later video. Looking at the specs of this "Crazy 4x," it leverages the dividend-inclusive S&P 500 Total Return Index by 400% and was created by the Bank of Montreal, famous for FNG. FNG launched it under the brand known as Micro Setters, but it uses the brand name "4x Max," so it is referred to as the S&P 500 4x LEED ETN.
4x first traded on December 5th and, as of the 13th, has risen by approximately 11.5% to $27.89. The reason 4 is a "Crazy" product is that while it can yield massive profits if you time it right, losses can become insanely large in the opposite case. The prospectus also states that 4 is a long-term It states that this is not suitable for long-term investment and should only be used for short-term trading.
I will explain why timing is crucial and why you should engage and exit quickly rather than investing for the long term. Leveraged products do not double or triple the returns over a specific period; instead, they leverage the daily return. You might think that if the SNP 500 has risen by 20% over the past year and you invested in a 4x leveraged product, you should see an 80% profit, but the result could be completely different.
Even if the SNP 500 rises by 20% over the past year, the leveraged product could result in a 50% loss. To explain this simply, I will use the exact examples provided in the prospectus. The first example involves a scenario where the price rises by 3% every day and then falls by 3% the next. If this repeats, by the 21st day, the SNP 500 index reaches 10.08, a rise of 2.08%.
You might think that because 4x leverage was applied, it rose by 88% (4x n), but the stock price dropped from $100 to $95.04, resulting in a loss of 4.96%. In other words, without leverage... While the 1x product generated a profit, the 4x leverage product incurred a loss. It suffered a 5% loss in just 21 days; if the ups and downs had continued for a year, the loss of principal could have been very significant.
The second scenario is when it rises by 1% every day. In the most ideal case, the SMP 500 index rose by 1% daily for 22 days, increasing by 24.47 points. However, when using 4x leverage, the stock price fell from $100 to $232.56, an increase of 132.56%. The 4x leverage proved to be much more powerful.
Ultimately, in a strong bull market that rises continuously without a single downturn, leverage delivers explosive returns and allows for profit maximization in the short term. Third, the worst-case scenario is when it falls by 3% every day. The SMP 500 index dropped by approximately 50% to $51.17, but the 4x leverage product fell from $100 to $5.84—a 94% drop—completely wiping out the principal.
To recover the principal from $5.84, it would cost a whopping... It needs to rise by 2.5%. Therefore, if a significant portion of your principal is wiped out through leverage, recovering it is nearly impossible. Finally, here is a table illustrating why long-term leveraged investment is a disadvantageous game and why you must make quick, sharp profits and exit within the short term.
It is located on page 29 of the official investment prospectus. The x- axis represents the volatility of the SNP 500, and the green line represents the rise and fall of the SNP 500 index. This table shows the probability of making a profit or loss based on the volatility of the SNP 500 index when it rises or falls.
Simply put, the area colored blue represents losses, and the area colored red represents profits. The size of the blue loss zone is larger than the red profit zone. In other words, just as a casino has a high probability of winning every game for gamblers, leverage means that probabilistically, there is a higher chance of incurring losses.
The volatility of the SNP 500 is approximately 15 to 20%. Assuming volatility of 15 to 20%, when the SNP 500 rises or falls, the area of loss is slightly larger than the area of profit; this means the probability of incurring losses is high. If the volatility of the SNP 500 increases from the current 15–20% level to 20–30%, the probability of incurring losses will rise even further.
In other words, the higher the volatility of an asset, the higher the probability of incurring losses when using leverage. This is also why it is crucial to carefully time your investments in the Nasdaq, which has higher volatility than the SNP 500, as well as in TQQQ and SOX, which invest in the semiconductor industry.
As seen in the previous example, actively utilizing leverage is the method to maximize profits by hundreds of millions in a definite bull market. Since aggressive leveraged investment is essential if a strong bull market is certain, it is important to understand the current market situation. If you enjoyed this content, please subscribe and like.
Next, we will proceed with an interview with QQQ CEO Sylvia Blonsky, who has the highest returns these days.
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