TQQQ Explained| Is TQQQ A Good Long Term Hold?| TQQQ vs QQQ

요약 보기

TQQQ는 나스닥100 일간 수익률의 3배를 목표로 하는 레버리지 상품으로, 장기 보유에는 부적합하지만 상승 모멘텀이 강할 때 기술주 노출을 증폭하는 단기 전략으로는 유효하다고 설명. 2016~2019 구간에서 TQQQ 급등·급락 사례를 제시하고, 스윙 트레이딩으로 모멘텀이 좋을 때만 활용하며 나스닥100은 장기 배분에 포함할 만하다는 입장.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Alright everyone, and welcome to the channel . My name is Kyle and today we're going to talk about one of my favorite stock symbols to trade, which is TQQQ. Therefore, I am by no means suggesting that anyone invest a substantial amount of their portfolio in something like TQQQ. Check out my other video where I demonstrate a swing trading strategy that shows you how to try to determine where the momentum is in the NASDAQ and then go long on TQQQ during those times.

02. But this video will focus more on what TQQQQ is, what stocks make up TQQQ, and how it relates to the NASDAQ 100 in terms of profitability. Sometimes it behaves a little differently in times of volatility compared to low volatility. So you can see the assignment here. It is dominated by, you know, a couple of big stocks, Apple, Microsoft and Amazon, which account for about a third.

03. You have another third in the other category, you know, 29%, and then you can see Facebook, Google. So I have the first 20 named here in this chart. So, what TQQQ is trying to do is achieve three times the daily return of the NASDAQ 100. So, there are a couple of key things there. Uh, three times the daily output.

04. So, that doesn't necessarily mean annual performance or performance in, you know, a weekly timeframe. It only refers to daily performance. And to do that, they're going to have to reposition the background. And depending on the amount of volatility in the market at that time, that will cause the TQQQ index to track a little differently than what we would expect based on the returns of the NASDAQ 100.

05. So, the first thing we need to understand is that TQQQ is trying to achieve three times the expected return of the NASDAQ. But what we want to see here are the times when it actually doesn't. And sometimes it will outperform the NASDAQ by three times . And other times it won't do so well. So this chart shows a comparison between TQQQ and QQQ's returns from the previous year.

06. The white line is TQQQ. Therefore, whenever this white line of revenue looks like a layer of snow, it is when TQQQ exceeds three times the annual performance of QQQ. However, that is not at all a fair comparison due to the effects of capitalization. Therefore, in reality, the capitalization effect, the volatility effect, and the change in size of this fund are going to be the reason why it has a slightly different performance than you would expect.

07. Let's take a look at the period right in the recovery after the 2009 financial crisis. And when you look at this chart, if this yellow line is above 0%, it's exceeding that three times. Well, it's quite high up. You can see that TikQu's performance is going very well. And during this time, we have had a direct upward impulse .

08. That's where that leverage accumulates. And that drives truly fantastic performance. More than 100% for much of this period. Then, when we have 2015 and 2016, we have a very volatile period. Lots of lateral action. And you can see that TQQ is really affected during this time. It's not doing as well as the NASDAQ in general.

09. And during this period, you're not really getting the risk-reward ratio you truly deserve for having something so risky. But when the momentum is there, it works very, very well. So, in the period immediately following the 2016 election, you can see a substantially superior performance by TQQQ. We had a 400% increase from March 2016, just before a fairly large correction occurred in January.

10. And then we'll take a look at that, but it was an increase of around 400% on TQQQ and an increase of 76% on NASDAQ. And then, when we move on to that volatility that began in January until the December correction due to the Federal Reserve's tightening, then you can see one of the dangers of holding TQQQ.

11. During this time period, you know, when we bottomed out in December , you had a 41% drop in TQQQ, compared to only an 11% drop in Q over the same period. Well, one of the most important things I want to convey in this video is that TQQQ isn't necessarily a good long-term option, but if you do it at the right time and take the right amount of risk with this instrument , I think it could provide some truly fantastic results.

12. And that's what I want you to see in my other video about the TQQQ swing trading strategy. It's a very basic hyenashi strategy. In fact, it showed a buy right before election day and then we had a really tremendous rally. So I've been late over the weekend. We didn't know who would win the election.

13. We now know that Biden has been declared president-elect. So I think the position went up almost 25% at one point. And then here, at Monday's close, it was up about 14% above where I entered, which was around 124. There was some pretty good selling here on Monday, and we might get a sell signal tomorrow.

14. Okay, a couple of key takeaways about TQQQ. I think this is a really great tool to use when you have a very good upward momentum in technology stocks. Technology stocks have been fantastic investments for at least the last 10 years and it looks like their outlook remains very positive, as many of these technology stocks are becoming almost like utility stocks, where they are deeply embedded in the infrastructure of how we do business.

15. Therefore, I believe the NASDAQ 100 should be part of almost any long-term allocation strategy. On the other hand, TQQQ is probably not ideal for long-term buy-and-hold, but if you can use it when the momentum is really good, a really bullish momentum, it can really amplify the gains you're getting from tech stocks.

16. Therefore, I use it as a way to add exposure to the broader technology sector, in addition to my individual stock picks . And then I do it carefully and use the strategy I mentioned several times in my other video to try to determine when we are in an ideal configuration. So, thanks for watching. If you enjoyed this video, be sure to like and subscribe to the channel.

17. It really helps us a lot. And let me know your thoughts on TQQQ. So, what do you think about this? Do you trade it? Do you hold it long-term? Let me know what you think. Thanks for watching.