저자: JimCramer · 외국인
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트럼프 행정부의 전국 자율주행 허용 가능성은 주·지자체 권한 때문에 현실성이 낮다고 평가하지만, 테슬라는 기술기업 프리미엄이 유효하다고 봄. 3분기 실적의 마진 반등을 변곡점으로 보고, 연말 저가형(3만달러 미만) 차량 출시와 로보택시·AI 기대를 근거로 장기 강세 시각을 유지함. 팔란티어 관련 파트너십도 긍정적으로 언급.
다듬은 글
some stories are just too good to be true and that's how I feel about the possibility of a federal Proclamation that leads to a Nationwide roll out of fully self-driving cars Tesla's stock was up again today because we're getting reports that President elect Trump who is an a valid climate change Deni has cast his lot with Elon Musk to develop national self-driving Vehicles it's pretty clear that Trump doesn't see the need for electrics in fact he wants any subsid including tax credits for manufactured them however he did state I'm going to quote here I'm for electric cars I have to be because you know Elon endorsed me very strongly end quote little transactional for me look I'm not I'm not against own and Tesla you know that I just think that this is a bad reason Elon mus tells a very compelling story about full self-driving as well as solar robots all wrapped up into one stock of a company that happens to make vehicles but the idea that that that the White House can somehow allow self-driving cars everywhere with the stroke of a pen that's just plain fanciful first our country simply doesn't work like that we have state and local governments with tremendous power to block anything I remember when I was going to be able to take a self-driving taxi from Downtown Phoenix to Glendale the home of the Arizona Cardinal a couple years ago for the Super Bowl it seems so simple except Glendale didn't allow self-driving vehicles I was incredulous but the municipal government of Glendo was able to block us second you might think it's natural for Trump to just declare the federal interstate highway system it's self-driving Zone but you know what that's meaningless too think about it how do you get on the interstate highway system other than a few municipalities that maybe destinate on some map someday it's catch as catch can the feds can't control state or local self self-driving laws if they try it those municipalities will sue the Federal Highway Administration and they're going to win there was another time in this country when a president might have been able to do something about this in the 195 president eow planned and executed the interstate highway system but he did that for National Defense reasons in those days we had a cold war with the Soviet Union as an overarching imperative in our nation which made the interstate highway act a much easier sale still I like the concept that that there's what Barclay calls an Elon premium to me Tesla deserves the premium musk has no doubt influenced the president-elect to scrap the $7,500 clean vehicle credit which will make it much harder for legacy automakers to ever compete with Tesla we're going to hear from for and GM CFO at a conference on Wednesday and we'll learn how their electric divisions can handle the end of those tax credits I believe GM can handle it but for well they may be stuck in neutral waiting for the warranty issues to dissipate if they ever can in the end while I don't buy the national self-driving mandate I think nothing truly dos the case for owning Tesla the must premium will work its magic in other ways perhaps favorable municipalities and test the rentals next to Federal highways no matter what though always remember that Tesla's a tech company the others are automakers and a tech company can get an insanely high price Journey multile with no one blinking so much as an eye about it uh what matters more here I mean the whole story is about gross margins I mean that's really been the headwind on Tesla stock I'd say $30 to $40 of a headl to the stock you saw gross margins I mean this is a blowout not even us thought that we could see a gross margin where s anywhere from a two to 300 bit beat this shows price Cuts now under control margins start to tick back up you start to get now toward 20% gross margins I think this is the start of the stock ultimately this will have a three in front of it as a stock as the grow margins start to Trend up and as well as growth into next year from a delivery perspective so does the robo taxi stuff matter look I think longer term I would think the the longer term story here is autonomous is robotics is essentially the AI play Street what they needed to see here show me margins you cannot have margins going toward 13 14% now that margins are starting to level off that is so important not just from a cashow perspective but showing the worse is in the rearview mirror and when you think about all the Bears and all the negatives it comes down to deliveries will start to uptick China I think is a source of strength in the quarter but that gross margin it's a gold Goldilocks for any bear okay it's a Goldilocks for any bull the Bears it's kind of a nightmare for because that was ultimately the core of the story yeah toer Point free cash flow $ 2.74 billion at trounced expectations for Q3 but some of the details we're getting here on the Outlook I think are also really notable they're basically saying despite the ongoing macroeconomic conditions we expect to achieve slight growth in vehicle deliveries in 20124 also talking about energy storage deployments that are going to more than double this year but perhaps this is most notable cuz you've written about this saying plans for new vehicles including more affordable models remain on track for start of production in the first half of 2025 what should we take away from that when I know a lot of folks have been looking for a sub $30,000 vehicle we're even expecting to get some details on at the robo taxi event which maybe was unrealistic the linge PIN to the story from a growth is a sub 30k vehicle and I believe that that hits by middle of 2025 that's the growth I mean that's ultimately you're talking about single- digit growth this year that's how you get to 10 12 15% type growth margins under control that's what the Bulls want to see and I think the fact that they actually double down and I expect clearly on the conference call they'll Focus not just on margins but more details around that vehicle look robotx today we could argue you know many would say that they're disappointed I believe ultimately that shows the vision the autonomous Nei Vision Street need to ultimately see stop talking the talk walk to walk show the margins they did it and musk really has I think stepped up in that capacity and what's been a year of softness for Ev demand and obviously more adoption of of hybrid vehicles for example are we going to look at Q3 as an inflection point for that changing especially when you look at results like this today or is this a Tesla specific story as they do deploy more manufacturing techniques more software more more AI both internally and externally I think it's a combination I mean you had a you you look at GM's quarter I mean that was a w s like quarter for GM and then you look what we've seen in terms of Tesla I believe this is the inflection point this right now is the start to me of what we're actually starting to see from a gross margin perspective the Renaissance of growth comeback they've essentially been in between two growth waves next year you have a sub 30k vehicle then the autonomous and AI Vision plays out and that's in our opinion that's how you get to trillion trillion and a half mark cap and right now as we've seen like look New York City cab drivers bearish on Tesla okay and I think that's a good setup relative to what we see in the next three four quarters listen we got to go but quickly paler your reaction to that news I mean that's huge it just shows doubling down on carp and paler on the defense side when you think AI in the 202 area code paler really owns that market the fact that that partnership just like Microsoft and others we'll hear more in your interview tomorrow that's a huge Flex to muscles for pound tiar and carp
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