저자: DanIves · 외국인
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엔비디아 실적 발표 전 Dan Ives는 블랙웰 수요가 공급을 초과하며 AI 혁명 초입이라 주장하고, 데이터센터 매출이 분기 50~80억 달러까지 갈 수 있다고 전망. 과열 이슈는 노이즈이며 생산 차질은 없다고 주장. 엔비디아 2025년 4조 달러 시총 가능성 제시. Josh(출연자)는 가이던스 상향 기대치가 과도하다며 신중론. Stephanie는 브로드컴이 AI 2위 플레이이고 VMware 인수로 다각화된다며 선호.
다듬은 글
I think you print this press release off and you can put it in the L just frame it because look I mean what you're really seeing here this is a stock that's going to be green tomorrow I mean what they're putting up in terms of hopper in terms of overall growth it's exactly what the what the Bulls want and he'll continue to under the promise I mean next quarter that could be a four in front of it in terms of ultimate Revenue this is just a beginning of the AI Revolution 4 trillion on its way sure and long term you may be very well right but are you not concerned about this plus or minus 2% that the company is reporting on Revenue only simply because the market wants the company to beat and beat well every quarter yeah if you looked up sandbag special in the dictionary you'd see this guidance and I think Street look Street's going to look through it I think this is a stock that probably will be up even on the conference call because if you look at everything that they did here in terms on the data center you could hoper we could be talking 5 7 8 billion per quarter that was just the ultimately many could just be a few billion so as this all plays out and you start to look at numbers over the next called 12 to 18 months The Godfather of AI Jens in Nvidia continue to be in that Mount Rushmore and it just shows it's starting with Nvidia now second third fourth derivatives playing out that's why it's 9:30 10 p.m.
in this AI party that goes to 4:00 a.m. has the time changed at all since he came out with that it was it was 900 p.m. and now we're 9:30 got it got it so my other question is since there are so many commentary so there's so much comments on Blackwell how production will ramp up into fiscal uh 2026 the product production shipments will begin in the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2025 which is the current quarter does Nvidia break out Blackwell revenue or is this something that you and investors always need to reverse engineer out of the data center numbers yeah essentially investors reverse engineer but if you look in terms of some of the wording there basically saying any of those heating issues don't worry about it and and I think that's going to give more and more Comfort this is going to ram significantly in terms of that and I think that's look that continues to be the story because we've talked about from our Asia trip demand to supply 15 to1 and there's only one game in town and he's wearing a black leather jacket his name is Jensen and I think that's why this continues to be still in the early days of what I believe we'll be talking about four trillion on you mentioned the overheating issues and these are Blackwell you know overheating which might require redesign of the servers housing the chips and the companies that make the servers are Dell uh heel Packard Enterprise super micro do they end up carrying the cost of having to redesign everything yeah but ultimately I think that is something that's really noise and from all the checks we do that's why look when you're at the top of the mount you're always going to have people trying to take shots at you but if you look at how Nvidia is playing out here there's really no production issues as this all RAM and that's why when you hear from jenton today I think investors are going to realize this AI Revolution now it's about second third fourth derivatives you look what going to play across software across the rest of the S me across cyber security if you're a tech bull this combined with obviously the last few weeks in terms of trump musk and everything we see this is a what I think is really going to be a setup to a Santa Claus rally so we are seeing Nvidia saying that Blackwell is going to exceed supply for several quarters but that there are some Supply constraints now you do those Chanel checks Dan tell us the truth where have you seen those bottlenecks or those potential places where Supply will be constrained everyone's waiting in line there at the Velvet rops and there's only one party and that's really in terms of Nvidia and gens and I think the issue there is that you want those next chips you you that's what everyone that's the new oil oil or gold yeah but that's the customer side I'm talking about from the the supply side from from Nvidia being able to actually deliver these it's ramping it's ramping look like any new production any new chip it's going to take time to rent but I would say if you thought relative to 3 months ago had expectations so you sit there right now if Jensen's flying the plane you're in 3A watching Netflix feeling pretty good in terms of pricing power can Jensen hang raise the prices of those uh blackw chips even more than what he has already I mean what what are you expecting on that front and should people look for maybe increased prices for those chips they definitely can but right now it's all about markets they're just going to continue to go further and further out and even when you look what the hyperscalers are are spending you have now 3 400 billion of capb backs AI capb backs just in your sites then you think about sovereigns look at private look at everything else it just shows we are in an unparalleled once in a 40-year tech Trend and that's why that Mount Rushmore is is jent no long in the Dela carp and others you talked earlier about how you know there's a velvet um rope um and a lot of people waiting to buy these chips the hyperscalers are at the front of the line but if you bring in Sovereign buyers into the mix where do they stand do they get to jump the line sovereign's in the middle of the line they're saying oh my name's in the list they're like look you can't get in front of these people in the front and that's big Tech Sovereign still in the middle of the line they will get in and then behind them it's the rest of the fortune 2000 that's why this we're going to be talking about next year or two for trillion 5 trillion this Tech bull market still in the early days I don't think so okay I think I think the question is obviously is how how sustainable is this on ongoing AI compute demand how how sustainable is going forward um yes the Stock's up 189% uh year to date we're expecting about $33 billion worth of Revenue we probably will surpass that somewhat I think in the next quarter however when you really start to see Blackwell come through uh that will be the bangout quarter which is the quarter that we're we're working through right now which we potentially to see $38 billion worth of Revenue um so I continue to like this story we again we hear from the hypers scalers and all the CeX spend that's going um in this space that obviously Nvidia continues to capture there's not a lot of competition for them currently um so I continue to like the stock and I think that you know maybe maybe you're not buying it right here but there will be opportunities to present ourselves we've seen how this stock has traded over the last few years Josh what are you waiting for ahead of Nvidia as an owner of this name as well there's a report out there that the implied swing for NVIDIA up or down is expected to be about 8 1/2% that's in line with the average swing that we've seen over the last 12 quarters but the company is much bigger than it's ever been it's $3.5 trillion so a swing of that magnitude is almost $300 billion which is more than almost every publicly traded uh company's market cap so we are basically looking at a situation where the biggest most loved most celebrated most well-regarded stock in the entire Market is coming out with an earnings report that yet again they guided higher going into analysts are now looking for 33.2 billion which was a guide up from last quarter 70 cents in earnings per share that equates to 84% year-over-year Revenue growth and 89% earnings per share growth so my comment here would be yes we all hope for the best but let's all be very honest with each other other a company at $33 billion in Revenue being able to do 84% growth on that and then telling you they're going to do it again next time is very low I think the tight rope that Nvidia now has to walk is to remain optimistic about the future but not continue to push out those expectations and and give people the impression that year-over-year sales doubling for a 30 uh for a $3 trillion company is in any way real istic as far as expectations I think they get it I think there's a way to do that I think there's a way to give guidance sound optimistic but not keep painting yourself into a corner of people looking for doubles every time you report we'll see if they can pull it off that's what I'm watching for yeah some could be some magical verbage Stephanie you actually prefer broadcom to Nvidia well I mean I like Nvidia but I feel like I missed it um but I have done well with broadcom just given its Diversified Revenue mix you do get the number two AI player it's going to be a 12 billion business for the company you do what I really like though is they have they bought VMware and that's going to be a $4 billion per quarter Revenue run rate for them so the diversification I like very much um and so and also the valuation is a little bit cheaper but it's up a lot it's up 47% this year year to date and so it's had a nice run I think with Nvidia if it is down I don't know about you guys but I think it's going to get bought first and foremost it's 7% of the S&P 500 in terms of its weight it's almost 9% of the NASDAQ so if you're if you're betting against it you have to offset it which is what I'm doing with broadcom it's a very big position to offset however you know this is a company that has a whole new product cycle story that hasn't even begun next year and we all know that the hyperscalers are spending tons and tons of money about a 41% rise this year alone and a 17% rise next year and so that's real Tailwinds for the company so I'm sad I don't own it but I'm happy I own broadcom and I think lamb research is also an AI play that hasn't had the respect and I do think that that will play catch up in 2025 there doesn't have to be just one winner of course it's good to talk about several that's right well I have a ton of Industrials that also are benefiting from AI too so I definitely have ai exposure absolutely
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