저자: DanIves · 외국인
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Dan Ives는 트럼프 당선으로 머스크의 규제 리스크가 완화되어 테슬라 자율주행(FSD·로보택시) 가치가 크게 재평가된다고 주장한다. 로보택시 가속화 시 약 1조 달러의 가치가 추가될 수 있으며 12~18개월 내 2조 달러 시가총액이 보수적이라고 본다. 다만 중국 관세 및 머스크의 정부 역할로 인한 집중력 분산 리스크를 언급하며, 이미 상당 부분 주가에 반영되었다는 시각도 일부 내비친다.
다듬은 글
yeah I think it's really it's the autonomous piece I mean if you look at full self-driving autonomous I could argue it's the most undervalued AI play in the market today and I think autonomous cyber Cab in the timing I think could get accelerated two to three years and that's important in terms of from a some of the parts the stock that could add a trillion dollars of valuation alone and you could be looking at 20 30% more Revenue per year that you even see today you think $2 trillion valuation over the next 12 to 18 months is reasonable I think it's conservative potentially if they actually execute on the vision that I see not just in terms of autonomous and AI but really it's more about that software penetration within Teslas from an FSD perspective it changes the whole business model I'm trying to think of so they they have less than 10% market share in China correct byd's got like a third demand for EVS is already sort of slow blowing globally so if you have a a pickup in tariffs and you have what is a more protracted trade War what does that do to Tesla's prospects in China sure I there's one big X variable the bet for the ages pardon the pun no I think the bet for the ages for musk was betting on Trump because he is going to have a significant SE at the table when it comes to the China tariffs I think especially on the AI trade I fully expect that there'd be carve outs relative to Tesla and apple when it comes to any sort of tariff back and forth and I think within China mus has been that sort of 10% politician 90% CEO China just had a record quarter if you look back so I I just I'm not of the belief that China is going to be a huge headwind I think overall this is a game Cher for the story you know when you look at I think over the next 12 is there any um spreading yourself too thin risk mhm you know I mean yeah right guy's running like all sorts of stuff and now he's got a foot and a half in the he's going to have a foot and a half in the Oval Office whenever he wants it look being essentially a whisper really a strategic advisor for Trump I mean it's going to just put another sort of balancing act for him between SpaceX Tessa boring company and others but but my view here is that investors will take that because musk having a strategic View and a strategic I think essentially chair in the White House is significant for AI it's for autonomous but most importantly the biggest regulatory issue that they've had to navigate from an autonomous perspective a lot of that now starts to dissipate and that's a key part of the value I me I ultimately look at this is unlocking a trillion dollars of value in Tesla Ai and autonomous simply because of Donald Trump's win simply because of Trump's win because Trump's win changes the whole game for Musk for Tesla for autonomous for FSD those still have issues on States this is not going to be you know 100% smooth road but this is a much different stock than it was a week ago with Trump in the White House is there is there any risk whatsoever I mean I I I know I mean I ask you this just as like kind of Devil's Advocate I don't know what the likelihood if any there there actually is but is there any risk whatsoever of a larger role bigger than foreen within the administration to where he would potentially be a seller of stock sure so I don't I don't see that musk is going to take a formal cabinet position we'll call him like an AI ambassador he's going to Career I mean you he's going to be very strategic I think in in very key aspects on Tech on tariffs on AI but I don't see any issue from a cabinet perspective selling of stock and I'd also say broader from a tech perspective whether you're an Nidia investor Apple musk having a say in Ai and in tariffs when it comes to China today I think Phil nailed it in terms of the reason for the move here I think there's also this piece of this mem stock part which of the 15% there's some percentage that was just a Halo uh around Elon and Elon made a big bet around Trump his next big bets uh autonomy and the probability that that's successful goes up a little bit um as far as how much of that's sustainable I mean the shrewd investor would say well what is the real play What's the opportunity and we've kind of outlined these numbers but just to recap is that if Tesla gains 50% share of the US ride sharing Market by 2030 which actually I think is is a reasonable Target we'll save that discussion for another day but that would add about 20% to operating income and so stocks up 15% that adds 20% now they can take this in other parts of the world but a lot of it got priced in in a hurry I'm a big believer in what that means the one piece that maybe wasn't priced in today is if they sell more Robo taxis elon's talking about 2 to 4 million a year ultimately that' be about a third of total Tesla deliveries I'll take the under on that I think it's probably closer to one to two but uh that's another piece so Melissa to answer your question I think that this kind of Fairly reflected or started to price in some of the robo taxi opportunity yeah and that's where analysts and and so many wall streeters got so bullish after that cyber cap event um that's where they sort of said you know the the market cap could be XY Z above what it is right now um in terms though Jean of of some of the other parts of Elon musk's Empire like SpaceX I mean Trump has said we will put an American astronaut on the moon uh thanks to you know with thanks Elon I think something like that and I'm wondering if you think that that that there will be other impacts here that we are not even seeing whether it be Twitter or SpaceX or some of the other Ventures he has well he's got the golden touch right now and and has the year and so I think that uh yes there there are going to be SpaceX is a clear beneficiary here uh Phil talked about potential that there's going to the tax credits are going to go way around EVS maybe they actually stick around for longer than expected and uh so there might be another uh angle around Tesla as far as what's going on with uh X and Twitter that piece is that uh there's probably a benefit just around his ability uh to continue to grow that platform just kind of in a a more free speech type of world and and lastly don't forget about U x.
a I mean uh the whole AI piece this uh potential around some regulation around AI that diminished today and so I think that that this is still going to be pedal to the metal in terms of what it's uh the infrastructure that's going to be built and uh they just raised a bunch of money obviously xai and I think it's that should bode well so I'm I'm I'm stretch to try to find out how this could play out negative for Elon what if he steps down and he becomes the chief efficiency officer what whatever that that office is going to be called I mean would that be a negative for Tesla stock as long as he's showing his face and uh on earnings calls and there's a perception that he's uh a part of this that's probably 5 10 hours a week I think investors are going to be okay with that because they've just grown desensitized to the number of things that he has going on by my last count five companies and now you add this to it I think that there's kind of a point where people just fall back on hey he's done it before and he'll be able to continue to do it so any normal person this would be uh Tessa would would have sold off and said they're going to be spending some time working in the government but uh this isn't any normal person
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