저자: TeslaEconomist · 외국인
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일론 머스크의 주식 매도와 자사주옵션 행사에 따른 세금 부담을 분석. 머스크가 테슬라 지분 10%를 매각하면 주가 하락(딥) 가능성이 있다고 봄. 하락 시 LEAPS 콜옵션을 분할 매수할 계획을 밝히며 장기 투자 관점을 강조.
다듬은 글
welcome to the tesla economist please hit the thumbs up and remember to subscribe you can also follow me on twitter and talk to me on patreon for the controversy right now surrounding the rich or in particular certain billionaires not paying tax elon has taken action billionaires are supposedly not paying their fair share of tax for example elon has now made hundreds of billions of dollars and although we don't get to see his official tax return we know it is negligible relative to his wealth but this is because there wasn't any tax to pay elon does not pay much in the way of income tax as he doesn't take a salary from tesla this is entrepreneur mentality take as little out of the company as possible so it can grow and he receives bonuses in stock based compensation with options elon is only subjected to tax when he sells his stocks from the capital gains achieved at that stage it is being proposed that billionaires should be paying tax on unrealised capital gains as in the assets have appreciated even though they've not yet been sold of course you have to ask what if the stock crashes for example say if you pay tax on 100 billion dollars of unrealised capital gains and then the market crashes and you lose 50 billion dollars is the government going to reimburse you highly doubtful which wherein one of the major flaws lies the amount the government would receive in tax would still be inconsequential especially when you compare it to the national debt but also this is disincentivizing entrepreneurs which is the biggest impact on the economy i'm of the opinion that a good economy should do everything it can to incentivize entrepreneurs and startups as these are the individuals that have the most impact on the world compared to the government receiving a few extra billion dollars in tax look how the likes of steve jobs larry page and elon musk have reshaped the world compared to whatever the government did the last time they spent a few billion dollars what had the most impact this is how i see the world encourage innovation in every capacity possible elon selling his shares will also be a big indicator of how the market will react if unrealized capital gains tax was a thing it will likely wipe trillions from the market due to other ceos having to sell their stock to cover the tax is tens of billions of tax worth the market suffering trillions anyway elon prides himself and tesla on being the good guys he doesn't want to be associated with the cliche mold of the billionaire robber barons he doesn't own a super yacht and his current residency is worth less than all of ours so now elon has put it to a vote he's asked twitter to decide whether he should sell 10 of his shares and pay the capital gains tax and elon says he will abide by the results or was that abide done this is approximately 25 billion dollars of tesla stock that elon will be subjected to capital gains tax on which i believe is 20 so approximately 5 billion will go in the form of tax leaving elon with 20 billion dollars of cash what would elon do with the rest of the money elon has been tweeting about he would be happy to spend six billion dollars to solve world hunger of course it's much more complex than simply throwing money at the problem just like it's much more complex starting a successful eevee company than just throwing money at it however elon has his stock based compensation that he needs to pay for too i believe he has about 23 million shares in call options with strike prices of around six dollars which means the difference between the strike price and the market price is currently well in excess of one thousand dollars and will be subjected to tax on the difference when he exercises these options employee options are different from market options if you exercise them you have to pay tax and at an income tax rate i believe 37 will go to the u.s federal government and another 13 would have gone to california although elon has now moved to texas which has a lower tax rate at around six percent anyway this will be a tax bill of something close to 10 billion dollars currently elon borrows money to live on he gave up a large portion of his shares as collateral to the banks so he can borrow on that i believe he's currently borrowed over 100 million dollars he could also borrow more to exercise these options and pay the associated tax but that would be a significant amount of debt which may cause unnecessary stress on top of the stress he already has but yes it can be argued that boring money on your shares is potentially a way for billionaires to avoid paying taxes instead they can pay a small amount of interest on a loan rather than selling shares and paying capital gains tax the shares which they didn't have to sell then in turn increase a further 10 to 20 percent a year in capital gains more than covering any potential interest if entrepreneurs believe in their company they also want to do everything they can to own as much of it as possible and don't like to part with shares therefore this is what i think will happen elon sells his shares he has a 5 billion tax bill on the sale for realized capital gains then he uses that cash to exercise his options and pay the other 10 billion or so in tax for that this would then mean he sells about 23 million shares 10 of his current holding and then exercises his options to receive 23 million more shares so in this scenario elon would have about the same amount of shares he pays 15 billion in tax and is left with 10 billion dollars in cash i think this 10 billion dollars may be earmarked for something associated with world hunger which would then make elon a hero otherwise i'm not sure what else he would do with this money and it sounds like it might be a wise move intonating these funds and will do wonders for his reputation as the richest man in history it may even start other billionaires following suit but what will this do to the stock price well elon selling 10 of his tesla shares will no doubt send the stock price down not just the psychology but also the actual selling of the shares that's a lot of money that needs to be found for 17 million shares although it is in reality only two percent of the company but it will impact the stock price and then add on to that all the shorts doing what they can and the usual market manipulation and it won't stop there then all the fud will come i think we may see a dip they could push hard i don't know how far but this is serious headline news it may be possible it could dip below one thousand dollars it could even be hard to find the bottom i've seen much stranger things happen with tesla in the past but you never can tell and you never know when and there are always other external factors that can happen too maybe the hertz deal is finalized with an order of two hundred thousand teslas and avis order comes through too or gigatexas opens you just don't know in other words there may be just a very short window coming up to load up on your test for investments i don't know how many more chances we will have like this especially after q4 earnings therefore i think personally i'm going to really make the most of this potential opportunity i do keep saying this but i think this time it might be my last and final tesla investment so i'm going to try and make it a good one there are plenty events around the corner to take the stock price to new levels therefore i feel that the potential reward outweighs the risk making it an asymmetric investment if you're upset as a tesla shareholder then this is part of investing in tesla it's a roller coaster and i suggest you get used to it if it makes you too emotional then you might make the wrong decision i understand if you recently purchased at these recently high prices you will take a hit but if you haven't finished building your position then tesla stock is about to go on sale and as i keep saying don't worry about the fickle day-to-day stock price you need to think five to ten years out and this channel is designed for those of you with long-term thinking you never know how many more chances we get of a dip it looks like we have one coming i actually just put together my latest leaps investment strategy and was looking forward to showing you all it might work well with what could happen to the stock price but i'm probably going to sell some shares and buy between three to five more contracts if it dips and i'll be buying in stages as it dips with a dollar cost average strategy if the stock price gets around a thousand dollars then i'll probably buy a strike price of around 1200 with an expiration two years out which is as long as my trading account allows if i could buy longer i would probably also look at three years out perhaps with a slightly higher strike price depending on the prices but if you're not familiar with options or leaps then be aware of the potential downside or risks of the fact you can lose everything you invest and by all means there is nothing wrong with just buying shares instead which may be more suitable to the majority of you even as things may happen fast it might be better if i announce what i do on twitter as it's more real time than having to make a video so if you're interested be sure to follow me on twitter i was not expecting to see another dip i wasn't sure how one could really come about but at the same time there's always something and it's often related to elon musk on twitter of course this is not investment advice i'm just someone who is doing everything in my ability to accumulate as many shares and tests as i can and sharing with you what i'm doing but please let me know your thoughts in the comments below
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