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Ray Dalio just made a huge bet on these stocks this is a stock portfolio now Ray Dalio as you likely know is one of the world's top investors and currently runs the world's largest hedge fund his firm Bridgewater associates manages roughly one hundred and sixty billion dollars for over 130 institutional investors across the globe what's particularly interesting about Ray Dalio is that he takes a long-term outlook on the macro global economy and positions his portfolio in a way such that he stands to benefit in any stage of the market cycle with that context we recently got a 13 F filing to take a look into his most recent stock positions Dalio is making big bets on certain stocks which may be able to provide us some insight as investors in this video we'll be doing a portfolio review of Bridgewater associates 2019 stock portfolio covering Ray Dalio Holdings stock trades and portfolio performance before we begin take a second to make sure you subscribe to gain access to more investment content like this in the future so this right here is the stock portion of Ray dahlias portfolio now I mentioned before this comes from a 13 F filing and that's required to be filed with the SEC for firms that manage over a hundred million dollars and is a disclosure of all the stocks they own or are long on and any option positions on those stocks what isn't included in the 13 F filing or any other assets including short positions bonds real estate direct commodity holdings currencies and effectively any other investment that's not stocks or options given that Ray Dalio has a very diversified portfolio across many different asset classes do note that the stock portion of his portfolio makes up only a percentage of the total portfolio in this case with a current value of roughly 16 billion dollars it represents about 10% of the total 160 billion dollar portfolio this is the direct data from the 13 F filing and one thing you'll notice is that there are a lot of stocks Dalio invest heavily in ETFs which are already diversified but he continues to hold a large range of individual stock holdings as well overall the number of active current stock holdings in the portfolio was 303 given that we're not going to be looking at all stocks but we'll be looking at the largest 17 positions in the fund which make up over 85% of the current portfolio what's interesting about the top seven Holdings is that these are all exchange-traded funds typically very diversified index funds the Uni as retail investors could also buy an investment for a very low cost and gain relatively large exposure to a diversified selection of stocks with that though Ray Dalio is making a bet on a particular index of stocks specifically stocks from emerging markets these indices are typically categorized by the MSCI Emerging market index which tracks a group of emerging markets that are typically earlier in their growth and development cycle this is in comparison to countries in the developed markets which are typically a little bit more established and have a longer history of returns in fact five of the top 17 holdings and three of the top four holdings are emerging market index funds two of which are even more focused index funds specifically for investment in Brazil and South Korea now we'll get into more detail with it soon including several visualizations and other analysis let's take a look at what else is in the portfolio well not as much of a portfolio weight as emerging market stocks Reid Ali is still invested in US stocks through the S&P 500 which make up two of his top five holdings well Ray Dalio is bullish on emerging markets he's less so on develop markets though he still does hold a small portfolio position in them to potentially hedge the risk of many of his stock holdings Ray Dalio has also invested in a variety of bond ETFs the funds he's selected have a wide range of credit quality for instance he owns two funds specifically dedicated to Treasuries from the US government to funds for corporate bonds one investment grade and one with higher yield which is generally of lower credit quality as well as an emerging markets bond fund in addition to that Dalia holds roughly 4% of the stock portfolio in gold ETFs this again could potentially serve as a hedge against the volatility in the equity side of the portfolio all other of the 286 individual stock positions make up the remaining roughly 13% of the portfolio visually represented the stock portion of Bridgewater's portfolio can be broken down as follows currently the large majority of the fund is invested in emerging market stocks or roughly 55% about 18% is in US stock index funds and a 13% in individual stocks I'd say most of those individual stocks though are from the US so it's roughly about a 30 cent allocation to US stocks as a hedge dally also owns ETFs for bonds and gold with roughly 7% and 4% respectively now keep in mind that these allocations to bonds and gold likely don't represent the full allocation within the total Bridgewater portfolio for instance any bonds or gold that was held directly by the fund and not through an ETF would not need to be reported on a 13f filings so we wouldn't necessarily see it here as such as a percentage of the total Bridgewater portfolio I wouldn't be surprised if Dalia held more than 4% in gold and more than 7% in bonds but when looking only at the stocks and ETFs he owns this is the percentages we're working with and finally rounding off the portfolio is a three percent allocation to developed markets going back to the developers emerging markets chart the large difference between the amount invested in emerging markets versus the comparatively small amount invested in developed markets makes me believe that Dalio thinks that emerging markets at this point in time have a much better risk reward ratio compared to developed markets particularly its weight in Europe we can maybe get a little more insight into this line of thinking by reading a passage directly from Bridgewater's mission statement they State Bridgewater associates is focused on understanding how the world works by having the deepest possible understanding of the economy and financial markets and translating that understanding into great portfolios and strategic partnerships with institutional clients we built a distinct track record of success we've done this for more than 40 years by having great people operate in a culture of radical truth and radical transparency and his firm Bridgewater associates Ray Dalio likes to operate in an idea meritocracy where regardless of your position in the fund if you have a good idea it will be heard given that let's take a look at how these ideas performed first we'll take a look at the portfolio holding changes chart this chart gives you a sense of the percentage of the portfolio that was invested in each of these investments during the prior quarter which is shown in red and during the current quarter which is shown in blue what you can see from this is that relatively speaking last quarter Dalio had much more of an allocation in individual stock holdings that was about 30 percent last quarter which is now down to roughly 13 a fair portion of that coming from selling all many individual stock positions where did that money go well almost entirely it was devoted to emerging market stocks yet it a bit more to his already large position in the vanguard emerging market index then added significant amounts to the iShares emerging market index and the iShares core emerging market index as well as adding a sizable position to the MSCI brazil capped etf those four funds that saw the most inflows were all emerging market stock indices taking a look at performance from the 13 F filing we know what Dahlia was holding in stocks at the end of March but we don't know if he's made any changes since then but assuming the same portfolio we can see how each of these investments would have impacted the portfolio through today June 12th in this graph the blue line represents the value at the end of March and the red line represents the current value of the holding red bars above the blue line like the sp500 represent a gain over that period for the top two emerging index funds red bars below the blue line represent a loss for that period now given that most of these investments are in broadly diversified index funds unless there's a major sell-off or rally it's unlikely that there's going to be significant gains or losses over a short two-month period it's for that reason why you don't see a significant amount of variation among the returns we can get a little better sense of how each position impacted the entire portfolio performance by using this waterfall graph effectively a waterfall graph allows you to trace back the individual components of each investments return and see its relative contribution to the total in this case over this very short two and a half month period the stock portfolio is down a modest 1.5% the majority of that loss being driven by short-term price declines in those emerging market ETFs that were invested in as well as aggregate losses across the other 286 individual stock positions over this same period other asset classes including bonds and gold as well as developed markets and US equities showed a very modest gain over this period which helped slightly to offset the loss from emerging markets this is one of the benefits of having a highly diversified portfolio across multiple asset classes and not just stocks because if one section of your portfolio is not doing so well there's a chance that's on the other less correlate asset classes may be performing well to offset that loss comparing Bridgewater's stock portfolio to the sp500 isn't an apples to apples comparison because they do invest in other asset classes like bonds and gold but it does helped at least to give a sense of relative comparison over the same time period with that over this period the S&P 500 was up two percent compared to Bridgewater stock portion being down 1.5 percent a difference of three and a half percent which is well within the range of variability over a two and a half month period what I mean by this is this is simply too little of a difference to really call this significant under performance going back to the holding value of the stock portfolio it's lost roughly a quarter billion dollars over this two and a half month period which sounds like a lot but when you keep it in relative terms as a percentage minus one point five percent is not that bad a similar sixteen point three billion dollar portfolio fully invested in the S&P 500 would be up roughly a third of a billion dollars today however reality isn't too concerned with the short-term is more focused on the long-term global macro economy with that we can ask what kind of perspective would be driving ray Dalia's portfolio decisions especially his investment in emerging markets well fortunately we do have access to some of dahlias direct thoughts as he does post occasionally to LinkedIn in his most recent posts he provided his perspective on the current US China trade war in his view he believes this conflict is actually more extensive than just a trade war describing it specifically as an ideological conflict driven by two factors first China's emergence to challenge the power of the US as well as these two countries having two very different approaches to life it's a relatively quick read but one of the salient points that I drew from it was this sentence here it's widely believed that time is on China's side so it's in US interest to have any fight that's going to happen earlier and in China's interest to have it later well it's hard to say if Daly's shift to emerging markets this quarter is necessarily indicative of his long term expectations for China but it is worth noting that China is the largest emerging market and also the largest component of many of these emerging market index funds as such a bet on these emerging market indices is a bet on China well Dalio is still certainly invested in the US and US stocks perhaps his increased bet in emerging markets is a hedge against China taking a stronger foothold in the global economy as we continue in the future in the short term it's hard to see who will exactly come ahead through trade negotiations or trade tensions but the longer this period goes on the more likely China may be to benefit now going back to the full portfolio one question that might come up is given that Ray Dalio is running a hedge fund why are so many of his stock positions in index funds well I can provide maybe a couple explanations one is that when you get to a large enough portfolio size you start to run into size constraints Warren Buffett often talks about this and says it's much easier to manage a small portfolio than a large portfolio and that it's harder to generate excess returns with larger amounts of capital the reason being is that good smaller deals that can make you a few million dollars don't really move the needle when you're managing billions you have to look for larger opportunities most of which have many institutions looking at them as well keeping their pricing relatively efficient given this and a Leo's deep focus and understanding on the global market and economy he may have more of a preference for investing broadly and where he thinks the market is going rather than the majority of the focus going towards picking individual stocks this is reflected in the stock portion of the portfolio that's roughly 87% with the individual positions making up roughly 13% and index funds are frankly a very effective and efficient way to make these kinds of bets behind me is a heat map from thin viz or financial visualizations showing some of the most popular and actively traded exchange-traded index funds on the market many of the largest of these funds probably look familiar from Daly's portfolio for instance for the sp500 Allianz the spyder etf as well as the iShares core S&P 500 Dalio also owns sizeable positions in the three largest emerging market ETF another reason why Dahlia uses ETFs is that the largest ets give him significant liquidity take the spider S&P 500 ETF for example if you look down here at the average volume roughly 72 million shares are traded every single day the more trading there is on a certain stock or ETF the more buyers and sellers are exchanging those shares and the more liquidity there is for that stock this means especially for Dalio who has billions to invest he's the ability to efficiently invest in these ETFs without having to worry that his purchases will bid up the stock price causing it to be more expensive for him in stocks our ETF with lower liquidity and lower trading volumes sudden large purchases or large sales would almost certainly cause the stock to rise or fall respectively that specifically one of the reasons why Dalio uses s py as one of his SP 500 ETFs instead of the lower-cost Vanguard equivalent of the same fund this fund has an average volume of under 3 million shares per day which is just much lower than s py fortunately for retail investors like you and I who aren't managing billions of dollars in our portfolio our purchases of index funds aren't going to be moving the market so we have an advantage over Dalio in that we can pick the lowest cost index fund typically from Vanguard the reason Dalio invests in the Vanguard emerging market index is because compared to the S&P index vanguards emerging market index has a higher level of volume so we've discussed dahlias investments in stocks particularly the emerging markets but now I want to turn our attention to the two non stock components of the portfolio specifically the bonds and gold now Dahlia wants to position the portfolio such that it can benefit during any market cycle and adding bonds and gold to the port foil is one way to hedge against equity risk this is the price of the long term Treasury bond fund TLT which invests in Treasury bonds with durations over 20 years long-term bonds do well in periods of slow growth and deflation when growth is slow and returns from stocks are low people look to bonds for more reliable sources of income and returns this demand drives down the yield of the bond and brings the bond prices up as investors are willing to pay more for their relative safety gold on the other hand as well during periods of high uncertainty as well as during periods of high inflation during periods of uncertainty Gold is considered a safe haven asset it's the one currency that has lasted the test of time and will still have value years from now during volatile periods of high uncertainty people buy gold as a means of wealth preservation this is particularly noticeable during periods of high inflation when increases in money supply decrease the price of the current currency causing the prices of everything else including gold to rise now it's been quite some time since the US has experienced a period of high inflation at least on consumer prices but one could potentially argue that we have seen some asset price inflation in both the prices of stocks and bonds since the financial crisis and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs 1 2 & 3 should the Federal Reserve backtrack and eventually have to go for another round of quantitative easing or money-printing Gold will likely do relatively well overall Ray Dalio has a very diversified portfolio even if he is making some heavy bets on emerging markets if you enjoyed this portfolio review leave a like on the video it's the best way for me to know which videos you enjoy the most and if you have suggestions for future videos let me know in the comments below until next time thank you so much for watching my name is Michael and I will see you in the next video
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