저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
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레이 달리오(브리지워터) 2019년 1분기 13F 공시 기준 주식 포트폴리오 분석 영상. 결론: 달리오는 신흥국 주식에 강한 베팅을 하고 선진국 비중은 낮게 유지 중이다. 포트폴리오 구성: 전체 펀드 약 160억 달러 중 주식 부분은 약 16억 달러(약 10%), 보유 종목 303개 중 상위 17개가 85% 이상. 상위 7개는 모두 ETF. 지역 배분: 신흥국 ETF 약 55%, 미국 지수 ETF(S&P500 등) 약 18%, 개별주 약 13%(대부분 미국), 선진국 약 3%. 자산 배분: 채권 ETF 약 7%, 금 ETF 약 4%(직접 보유분은 13F에 안 잡혀 실제 비중은 더 높을 수 있다고 추정). 최근 분기 변화: 개별주 비중이 약 30%에서 13%로 줄고, 매도 자금이 신흥국 ETF(뱅가드 신흥국, 아이셰어즈 신흥국, MSCI 브라질 등)로 이동. 성과(3월말~6/12): 주식 포트폴리오 약 -1.5%, S&P500 +2%로 차이 3.5%p이나 단기 변동 범위 내. 금·채권·미국 주식 등이 일부 상쇄. 달리오 견해: 미중 무역분쟁을 이념적 충돌로 보며 시간은 중국 편이라는 관점. 신흥국 베팅은 중국 노출과 연결되며 중국 비중이 가장 큼. 미국 주식은 헤지 성격. 채권·금: 장기 국채 ETF(TLT)는 저성장·디플레이션기에 유리, 금은 불확실성·인플레이션기 안전자산. 연준 추가 양적완화 시 금이 유리할 것으로 봄. 리스크: 단기 변동성, 13F에 직접보유 자산 미포함으로 실제 배분과 차이 가능, 중국 관련 지정학 리스크. 출연자 전망: 영상 자체의 예측 발언은 자산별 1~3개월 방향에 대한 명시적 언급이 없고, 장기 관점(신흥국 유리, 금 유리 가능성)만 제시.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio just made a huge bet on these stocks. Here is his stock portfolio now
Ray Dalio, as you likely know, is one of the world's top investors and currently runs the world's largest hedge fund. His firm, Bridgewater Associates, manages roughly 160 billion dollars for more than 130 institutional investors across the globe. What is particularly interesting about Ray Dalio is that he takes a long-term outlook on the macro global economy and positions his portfolio so that he stands to benefit at any stage of the market cycle. With that context, we recently got a 13F filing to take a look into his most recent stock positions. Dalio is making big bets on certain stocks, which may give us some insight as investors. In this video we'll do a portfolio review of Bridgewater Associates' 2019 stock portfolio, covering Ray Dalio's holdings, stock trades, and portfolio performance. Before we begin, take a second to subscribe to get access to more investment content like this in the future.
This right here is the stock portion of Ray Dalio's portfolio. As I mentioned before, this comes from a 13F filing, which firms managing over 100 million dollars are required to file with the SEC. It discloses all the stocks they own, or are long on, and any option positions on those stocks. What is not included in the 13F filing are other assets, including short positions, bonds, real estate, direct commodity holdings, currencies, and effectively any other investment that is not stocks or options. Given that Ray Dalio has a very diversified portfolio across many asset classes, note that the stock portion makes up only a percentage of the total. In this case, with a current value of roughly 16 billion dollars, it represents about 10% of the total 160 billion dollar portfolio.
This is the direct data from the 13F filing. You'll notice there are a lot of stocks. Dalio invests heavily in ETFs, which are already diversified, but he also continues to hold a large range of individual stocks. Overall, the number of active stock holdings in the portfolio was 303. Since we won't look at all of them, we'll focus on the largest 17 positions, which make up over 85% of the current portfolio.
What's interesting about the top seven holdings is that they are all exchange-traded funds, typically very diversified index funds. Retail investors could also buy these at very low cost and gain relatively large exposure to a diversified selection of stocks. Through them, Ray Dalio is making a bet on a particular index of stocks, specifically stocks from emerging markets. These indices are typically categorized by the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, which tracks a group of emerging markets that are typically earlier in their growth and development cycle. This is in comparison to developed markets, which are more established and have a longer history of returns. In fact, five of the top 17 holdings, and three of the top four, are emerging market index funds, two of which are even more focused, specifically on Brazil and South Korea.
We'll get into more detail soon, including several visualizations and analysis. But let's look at what else is in the portfolio. Although not as large a weight as emerging market stocks, Dalio is still invested in US stocks through the S&P 500, which make up two of his top five holdings. So while Ray Dalio is bullish on emerging markets, he is less so on developed markets, though he still holds a small position in them, potentially to hedge the risk of many of his stock holdings.
Ray Dalio has also invested in a variety of bond ETFs, with a wide range of credit quality. For instance, he owns two funds dedicated to US Treasuries, two funds for corporate bonds, one investment grade and one higher-yield, which is generally of lower credit quality, as well as an emerging markets bond fund. In addition, Dalio holds roughly 4% of the stock portfolio in gold ETFs. This again could serve as a hedge against volatility on the equity side. The other 286 individual stock positions make up the remaining roughly 13% of the portfolio.
Visually, the stock portion of Bridgewater's portfolio breaks down as follows. Currently the large majority of the fund, roughly 55%, is invested in emerging market stocks. About 18% is in US stock index funds and 13% in individual stocks. Most of those individual stocks are from the US, so roughly 30 cents of every dollar is allocated to US stocks in total. As a hedge, Dalio also owns bond and gold ETFs, with roughly 7% and 4% respectively. Keep in mind that these allocations likely don't represent the full allocation within the total Bridgewater portfolio. Bonds or gold held directly by the fund, rather than through an ETF, would not need to be reported on a 13F filing, so we wouldn't see them here. I wouldn't be surprised if Dalio held more than 4% in gold and more than 7% in bonds, but looking only at the stocks and ETFs he owns, these are the percentages we're working with. Finally, the portfolio has a 3% allocation to developed markets.
The large gap between emerging and developed market exposure makes me believe Dalio thinks emerging markets currently offer a much better risk-reward ratio than developed markets, particularly Europe. We can get more insight into this line of thinking from Bridgewater's mission statement: "Bridgewater Associates is focused on understanding how the world works by having the deepest possible understanding of the economy and financial markets, and translating that understanding into great portfolios and strategic partnerships with institutional clients. We have built a distinct track record of success. We've done this for more than 40 years by having great people operate in a culture of radical truth and radical transparency." At Bridgewater, Ray Dalio likes to operate in an idea meritocracy, where regardless of your position in the fund, if you have a good idea, it will be heard.
Given that, let's look at how these ideas performed. First, the portfolio holding changes chart shows the percentage of the portfolio invested in each holding during the prior quarter, in red, and during the current quarter, in blue. Relatively speaking, last quarter Dalio had much more allocated to individual stocks, about 30%, which is now down to roughly 13%. A fair portion of that came from selling many individual positions. Where did that money go? Almost entirely into emerging market stocks. He added to his already large position in the Vanguard Emerging Market Index, and added significant amounts to the iShares Emerging Markets Index and the iShares Core Emerging Markets Index, as well as a sizable position in the MSCI Brazil Capped ETF. Those four funds saw the most inflows, and all are emerging market stock indices.
Looking at performance from the 13F filing, we know what Dalio held in stocks at the end of March, but not whether he has made changes since. Assuming the same portfolio, we can see how each investment would have affected the portfolio through today, June 12th. In this graph, the blue line represents the value at the end of March, and the red line the current value. Red bars above the blue line, like the S&P 500, represent gains over that period, and red bars below represent losses. Since most of these investments are broadly diversified index funds, unless there's a major sell-off or rally, significant gains or losses over a short two-month period are unlikely. That's why there isn't much variation among the returns.
A waterfall graph gives a better sense of how each position affected total performance. It traces the individual components of each investment's return and shows its relative contribution to the total. Over this short two-and-a-half-month period, the stock portfolio is down a modest 1.5%. Most of that loss came from short-term price declines in the emerging market ETFs, along with aggregate losses across the other 286 individual stock positions. Other asset classes, including bonds, gold, developed markets, and US equities, showed a very modest gain, which slightly offset the emerging market losses. This is one benefit of a highly diversified portfolio across multiple asset classes, not just stocks: if one section isn't doing well, less correlated assets may be performing well and offsetting the loss.
Comparing Bridgewater's stock portfolio to the S&P 500 isn't an apples-to-apples comparison, because Bridgewater invests in other asset classes like bonds and gold. But it gives a sense of relative performance over the same period. Over this period, the S&P 500 was up 2%, while Bridgewater's stock portion was down 1.5%, a difference of 3.5%. That is well within the range of normal variability over two and a half months, so I wouldn't call it significant underperformance. In dollar terms, the stock portfolio lost roughly a quarter billion dollars over this period, which sounds like a lot, but as a percentage, a minus 1.5% is not that bad. A similar 16.3 billion dollar portfolio fully invested in the S&P 500 would be up roughly a third of a billion dollars today. Reality, however, is less concerned with the short term and more focused on the long-term global macro economy.
So what perspective might be driving Ray Dalio's portfolio decisions, especially his investment in emerging markets? Fortunately, Dalio occasionally posts his thoughts on LinkedIn. In his most recent posts, he shared his perspective on the current US-China trade war. In his view, the conflict is more extensive than a trade war. He describes it as an ideological conflict driven by two factors: China's emergence to challenge US power, and the two countries having very different approaches to life. It's a relatively quick read, but one salient point I drew from it was this sentence: "It's widely believed that time is on China's side, so it's in US interest to have any fight happen earlier, and in China's interest to have it later."
It's hard to say whether Dalio's shift to emerging markets this quarter is necessarily indicative of his long-term expectations for China. But it is worth noting that China is the largest emerging market and also the largest component of many emerging market index funds. As such, a bet on these emerging market indices is, in effect, a bet on China. Dalio is still certainly invested in the US and US stocks. Perhaps his increased bet on emerging markets is a hedge against China taking a stronger foothold in the global economy. In the short term, it's hard to see who will come out ahead through trade negotiations or tensions, but the longer this goes on, the more China may benefit.
Returning to the full portfolio, one question that might come up: given that Ray Dalio runs a hedge fund, why are so many of his stock positions in index funds? I can offer a couple of explanations. First, when a portfolio gets large enough, you run into size constraints. Warren Buffett often talks about this, saying it's much easier to manage a small portfolio than a large one, and harder to generate excess returns with larger amounts of capital. Smaller deals that could make you a few million dollars don't move the needle when you're managing billions. You have to look for larger opportunities, most of which many institutions are also examining, keeping their pricing relatively efficient. Given this, and Dalio's deep focus on understanding the global market and economy, he may prefer investing broadly based on where he thinks the market is going, rather than focusing mostly on picking individual stocks. This is reflected in the stock portfolio, which is roughly 87% index-style positions and 13% individual positions. Index funds are a very effective and efficient way to make these kinds of bets.
Behind me is a heat map from ThinViz, showing some of the most popular and actively traded exchange-traded index funds on the market. Many of the largest of these probably look familiar from Dalio's portfolio: the SPDR S&P 500 ETF, and the iShares Core S&P 500. Dalio also owns sizeable positions in the three largest emerging market ETFs. Another reason Dalio uses ETFs is liquidity. Take the SPDR S&P 500 ETF: roughly 72 million shares trade every single day. The more trading there is in a stock or ETF, the more buyers and sellers exchange shares, and the more liquid it is. For Dalio, who has billions to invest, this means he can invest efficiently in these ETFs without worrying that his purchases will bid up the price. In ETFs with lower liquidity and trading volume, sudden large purchases or sales would almost certainly push the price up or down. That's one reason Dalio uses SPY as one of his S&P 500 ETFs instead of the lower-cost Vanguard equivalent. That fund averages under 3 million shares per day, far lower than SPY.
For retail investors like you and me, who aren't managing billions, our index fund purchases won't move the market. So we have an advantage over Dalio: we can pick the lowest-cost index fund, typically from Vanguard. Dalio invests in the Vanguard Emerging Market Index, by the way, because compared with the S&P index, it has a higher trading volume.
Finally, I want to turn to the two non-stock components of the portfolio: bonds and gold. Dalio wants to position the portfolio so it can benefit in any market cycle, and adding bonds and gold is one way to hedge equity risk. This is the price of the long-term Treasury bond fund TLT, which invests in Treasury bonds with durations over 20 years. Long-term bonds do well in periods of slow growth and deflation. When growth is slow and stock returns are low, people look to bonds for more reliable income and returns. That demand drives down the bond's yield and pushes bond prices up, as investors are willing to pay more for their relative safety. Gold, on the other hand, tends to do well during periods of high uncertainty and high inflation. Gold is considered a safe-haven asset. It's the currency that has stood the test of time and will likely still have value years from now. During volatile periods, people buy gold to preserve wealth. This is especially noticeable during high inflation, when increases in the money supply reduce the value of the currency, pushing up the prices of everything else, including gold.
It has been quite some time since the US experienced high consumer price inflation. But one could argue we've seen some asset price inflation in both stocks and bonds since the financial crisis and the Federal Reserve's quantitative easing programs one, two, and three. If the Federal Reserve backtracks and eventually has to go for another round of quantitative easing, or money printing, gold will likely do relatively well.
Overall, Ray Dalio has a very diversified portfolio, even if he is making some heavy bets on emerging markets. If you enjoyed this portfolio review, leave a like on the video. It's the best way for me to know which videos you enjoy most, and if you have suggestions for future videos, let me know in the comments below. Until next time, thank you so much for watching. My name is Michael, and I'll see you in the next video.
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