저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
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마이클 버리가 2020년 말 13F 기준 게임스탑 지분을 전량 매도해 2021년 1월 숏스퀴즈를 놓쳤다는 분석 영상. 포트폴리오 구성: 상위 3개 보유 종목(씨티그룹, 화이자, 크래프트하인즈)은 모두 콜옵션으로 전체의 약 38%를 차지하며, 이전 분기보다 축소됨. 신규 편입 종목은 웰스파고, GEO그룹, 몰슨쿠어스, 코어시빅, 나우인코퍼레이티드 등이며, 분기 중 21개 종목을 매도하는 등 회전율이 높은 편. 게임스탑 평가: 2019년 최초 편입, 주당 약 5달러 이하에 매수한 것으로 추정. 2021년 1월 400달러 이상 급등 시 매도했다면 큰 이익을 놓쳤을 것이나, 그는 고점 예측이 불가능하다고 밝힌 바 있어 매도 자체는 그의 가치투자 철학과 부합한다고 해석. 수익률 및 전략: 2021년 들어 포트폴리오는 약 14% 상승해 S&P500의 약 5% 상승을 상회. 디스커버리, 디자이너브랜즈 등이 주요 기여. 버리는 저평가 종목을 싸게 사고 적정가치에 팔며, 역발상(컨트래리언) 딥밸류 투자자로 분류됨. 개별 종목 논리: GEO그룹·코어시빅 등 사모교도소 기업은 10년래 최저 주가 부근에서 정치적 불확실성이 이미 반영됐다고 봄. 정보기술 비중은 약 4%로 S&P500(약 22%) 대비 크게 낮아 금리 상승 시 금융주에 유리하나, 금리가 낮게 유지되면 성장주 노출 부족이 리스크일 수 있음. 아리스캐피털(ARCC 아닌 ARES 계열 BDC로 언급)은 포트폴리오 내 가장 작은 비중(약 1%)이며 배당수익률 약 9%. 2020년 3월 주가 8달러 저점 대비 10~12달러에 매수했다는 설명. CEO의 2020년 8월 100만 달러 이상 자사주 매수를 긍정적 신호로 언급. 출연자 전망: 버리의 향후 종목별 방향 및 목표가는 명시적으로 제시되지 않음. 영상 말미에 분기별 포트폴리오 변화를 지켜보겠다고만 언급.
다듬은 글
dr michael bury was one of the first investors to really understand the potential with gamestop stock his first investment in game stock dates back all the way back to february 2019 when it first appeared as a holding in scion asset management's 13 f filing however despite his early research it appears that michael bury has now completely sold out of his gamestop position at the end of 2020 meaning that he has missed the short squeeze that occurred in january of 2020 so in this video we'll be taking a look at his investment portfolio at the time and what he was buying instead so this is the 13 f filing of michael bury's cyan asset management as of the end of 2020.
in the 13f island we can see all of the open stock positions in michael bury's portfolio as well as his call and put options and unfortunately we don't see any short positions because those are not required to be disclosed on 13f filings however we can at least see how much is invested in each of these assets as well as any changes compared to the prior quarter up here at the top i built a little automated highlighting tool which will help us break down the portfolio into different subsections to understand birdie's reasoning potentially on some of these investments first off we'll take a look at the top 50 percent or the investments that comprise more than half of his portfolio in this case the top three largest portfolio holdings are citigroup pfizer and kraft heinz company and these are all not stock positions but they're actually call option positions call options are generally more risky than owning a stock outright and they bet on the stock price increasing by a certain point in time call options currently make up roughly 38 of his portfolio as of filing but that's actually down from prior quarters where he had previously invested in a lot more call options on various companies his next two positions lumen technology and now incorporated make up roughly about five percent of the portfolio each followed by rpt realty which makes up about four percent of the portfolio and of those top positions it's worth pointing out that both citigroup craft heinz as well as now incorporated are all new positions added to the portfolio as of the most recent quarter other new positions added to brewery's portfolio between october and december of 2020 include wells fargo the geo group molson coors beverage core civic holley frontier corporation ingalls market suncoak energy and aries capital corporation so put another way about half of his current positions are positions that are new and were initiated in the last three months and while bury did add 11 new positions in this quarter he also sold out of his stake in 21 positions from the previous quarter as well and if you followed berry's portfolio for some time this isn't something that's too surprising as he does have a relatively high level of portfolio turnover meaning that unlike traditional buy and hold investors who typically hold for longer durations of time at least a year it doesn't appear that michael bury has any hesitation when it comes to selling a position if he sees an opportunity that appears more attractive to him and one of those positions that brewery sold was actually gamestop stock this is interesting because berry was one of the first investors to see the potential for game stop as an undervalued really a deep value stock that had the potential to benefit from the cyclical console cycle as well as a potential transition in the future now i first purchased gamestop shares myself in my own portfolio back in 2018 so when i heard that bury had initiated a position in his portfolio in 2019 that was exciting news at least as a shareholder as someone who's been following gamestop stock over the last three years or so i can say that most investors who invested between 2018 and 2020 did so on the fundamental thesis they believe the business was undervalued based on fundamentals of the company with an upcoming console cycle the new cash flows could be used to rejuvenate the company as well as potentially font a transition to a more digital and e-commerce focused business given the extremely high short interest over a hundred percent of float a short squeeze was always a possibility but it never was the primary driving factor for most of these investors though it did present the potential opportunity for asymmetric upside if a short squeeze were to occur and a short squeeze ended up being exactly what happened in january of 2021 when gamestop stock exceeded 400 dollars per share and likely would have gone significantly higher if brokerages didn't step in and restrict retail buying now looking at gamestop stocks price chart the highest it traded in 2020 was i think roughly around 24 but then closed around 20 and ended the year at roughly 19.
so my best guess is that michael bury liquidated his gamestop position for about 20 dollars per share had he held on he would have had the potential to sell his shares for over 16 times what he sold them for if he sold during the peak of the short squeeze even if he held onto those shares through february of 2021 they would still be worth double what he likely sold them for so was this a mistake by michael bury well in hindsight you could arguably say yes by selling out early he missed the asymmetric opportunity of a short squeeze which honestly likely will be the only one of this magnitude that we'll see in our lives no other company i've seen has had such a high short interest as a percentage of float where more shares were shorted than actually existed in the market creating the ultimate melt-up scenario for short sellers on the other hand bury likely purchased most of his position at a cost basis at or under five dollars per share if he did so his sale represented a 300 return or quadrupling his money in just over a year those are fantastic returns on their own so it's hard to blame him for taking a profit in fact there's a good quote from his 2001 shareholder letter which he says i certainly have proven no ability to pick tops and i do not anticipate attempting such a feat in the future with that in mind berry selling out of his gamestop position doesn't seem too out of line with his investment philosophy for michael bury he makes most of his money buying undervalued stocks when they're relatively cheap and then selling them when they're at a fair value in this case he likely misses some of the potential upside if his stock continues to run potentially above fair value but that's not how he invests and while bury did trim out his gamestop position the portfolio hasn't suffered entirely debris portfolio in 2021 has done quite well up to this point up 14 compared to 5 increase in the s p 500 over that same period in time some of his best performing positions over that period include now incorporated discovery communications and designer brands if we take a look at the portfolio return by holding you can see that those three components make up about six percent of that total 14 return but most of his positions at least over these last month and a half are up and are contributors to the total gain in the portfolio now if you're a long-term investor like myself you really shouldn't worry too much about day-to-day week-to-week or even month-to-month variations in the prices of your portfolio holdings these short-term price movements will likely just end up being noise in the long run so you shouldn't get too excited or too disappointed if you see a price increase or decrease in the short term now brewery by nature is a contrarian investor betting against the crowd and a lot of his investments have that philosophy with them that are what i'd like to call deep value stocks or deep value investments that are trading at depressed valuations for some reason or another discovery is one such company which in 2020 at one point was trading at single digit price to earnings multiples for most of 2020 there were opportunities to buy the stock at twenty dollars per share as many investors were still uncertain about the future of the business however for investors who saw the potential value of discovery's media assets and their potential as a streaming service well they got an opportunity to buy a cheaply valued stock which had options and room for future growth and when it comes to controlling investments and deep value i can probably think of few others that fit that category more than private prisons now investing in private prisons is sometimes a controversial decision for investment managers but michael bury seems to have no qualms if he believes the assets are cheap in this case he's taking a three percent position each or six percent of his portfolio in total to invest in the two largest private prison operators in the united states that being the geo group and core civic looking at the stock price of both geo group and core civic both are trading at decade low prices now if there's uncertainty when it comes to private prisons is political uncertainty especially when it comes to potential contracts in the future and usage trends over time that being said michael brey may believe that at these low prices most of that negative uncertainty is already priced into the stock meaning that from here on out there's more likely a better chance of potential upside compared to downside risk whether that plays out in the political environment going forward is yet to be seen however it's interesting to note that during the democratic presidential administration from 2008 to 2016 both the business fundamentals and stock price for both geo group and core civic did quite well during that period in time despite the uncertainties surrounding the use of private prisons still being present during those times as well oftentimes you don't get exceptionally low prices for no reason and there's certainly uncertainties with these two companies that being said it's clear brewery thinks that these stocks are undervalued at least in the short term another thing that's interesting about bray's portfolio this quarter which is a bit different from previous quarters that we've seen with michael bury is that his portfolio appears much more evenly diversified across various investments compared to his typically concentrated approach while he still maintains a certain degree of concentration with his three option call positions making up roughly 38 percent of the portfolio asides from that his remaining stock positions make up no more than five percent of the portfolio each and most of them are relatively evenly split and weighted at around three to four percent of the portfolio each there are certain benefits and drawbacks to having a higher level of portfolio concentration versus a more diversified portfolio for a diversified portfolio of individual stocks no one stock is really going to move the needle as much compared to if you had a more concentrated position in that individual stock the more concentrated you are naturally the more your portfolio performance will be gravitating towards the performance of your concentrated positions this can help increase portfolio performance when those concentrated positions do well but the inverse applies too so when those positions aren't doing so hot relative to the market then your performance of your total portfolio will likely lag regarding sector concentration relative to the s p 500 birdie is more concentrated in financials consumer staples real estate and energy relative to the index his allocation to the information technology sector is only at roughly four percent of his portfolio compared to the index weighting currently at around 22 percent given this brewery's portfolio will likely see a positive benefit from rising interest rates in the future which should benefit financials on the other hand if interest rates remain low we could continue to see elevated valuation levels for many tax stocks where much of that valuation is based on expectations for future growth discounted at a lower interest rate in that scenario brewery's four percent waiting to tech might be a bit underexposed though this is a calculated risk he's likely considered overall brewery's portfolio definitely looks like a portfolio of a value investor now the only stock in his portfolio that i actually own currently is aries capital corporation currently the smallest portfolio position in brewery's portfolio at just about one percent of the portfolio aries capital is a business development company and they provide loans to middle market private companies that may not have access to capital markets as larger corporations do investors in arc and most business development companies don't look for share price appreciation as the way to get returns although if you buy at a low enough price you can achieve that the main way investors and companies like ark make money is through the dividend payments that are passed on to shareholders in this case arc is currently paying roughly a 9 dividend yield which is quite high but there are risks involved should those underlying businesses have issue paying back their loans you could see loan write-offs or loan losses which would impact the underlying loan portfolio that aries capital has from the stock price chart you can see that there was a lot of uncertainty back during march of 2020 and was unsure whether these companies would have the ability to pay back these loans prices dropped as low as eight dollars i remember making my initial purchase around between 10 and 12 dollars per share the logic being at the time that at those lower prices much of the loan losses may already be priced into the stock and so even if some companies are unable to pay back the value of the remaining loans and that interest cash flow should be higher than that 10 to 12 dollars per share perhaps michael brey was thinking this as well or perhaps he noticed the always encouraging sign of insider buying by the chief executive in this case on august 28 2020 the ceo bought over a million dollars worth of shares now insiders might sell for a variety of reasons but they buy for only one and that's because they think the stock price will go up in the future and is currently under value in the past brey's portfolio could potentially be summed up in several themes perhaps beaten down retail stocks or a leveraged bet on google call options in the case for brewery's portfolio at the end of 2020 it's the most diversified portfolio i've seen from burri in a long time so i can't really characterize it in the sense of a single investment theme but i think overall you could characterize it as a diversified deep value portfolio of contrarian bets as always it'll be interesting to see the portfolio developments each quarter to quarter as brewery reassesses these investments and potential future opportunities so let me know your thoughts on his portfolio or any of his stock holdings in the comments below and i know i've been less than consistent on my upload schedule but if you'd like to be notified of when i do upload subscribing with notifications on is the best way to do that until then thank you so much for watching my name is michael i will see you in the next video
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