저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2019년 9월 30일 기준 13F 포트폴리오는 7개 종목 집중형이며, 게임스탑(약 28%), 테일러드브랜즈(약 21%) 등 상위 5종목이 전체의 약 93%를 차지한다는 분석. 포트폴리오 구성 및 변화: 2018년 말 16개 종목에서 시작해 1년 사이 4개 종목만 남았고, 9월 분기에 7개 종목을 매도해 집중도를 높임. 상위 종목은 게임스탑, 테일러드브랜즈, 알파벳, 스포츠맨스웨어하우스, 베드배스앤비욘드, 캐나다내추럴리소시스, 뉴벡트라. 행동주의 투자: 게임스탑과 테일러드브랜즈에 대해 자사주 매입 등 자본배분 개선을 요구했으며, 이후 게임스탑 주가가 약 70% 상승했다고 언급. 성과: 최근 45일간 버리 포트폴리오 약 17% 상승, S&P500 약 4%, 영상 제작자 개인 보유 종목 약 10% 상승. 단기적으로는 지수를 하회할 수 있으나 장기적으로 가치투자가 위험조정수익률이 높다는 주장. 종목별 견해: 게임스탑은 차기 콘솔 사이클과 비용 관리로 하락 속도가 시장 예상보다 느릴 것이라는 전제, 테일러드브랜즈는 저평가지만 부채와 이익 감소가 부담이라는 평가, 알파벳은 사전 분석 영상 참조, 스포츠맨스웨어하우스·베드배스앤비욘드는 과도한 비관으로 저평가, 캐나다내추럴리소시스는 배당 약 4%와 저평가 매력, 뉴벡트라는 파산 가능성이 높아 소규모 베팅. 밸류에이션 모델: 게임스탑 기준 기본 시나리오에서 12% 요구수익률 적정가 약 6.15달러(연 EPS 1.36달러×PER 8%를 5년 후 가치로 환산), 비관 시나리오 0% 요구수익률 기준 약 4.05달러로 현재가(5.66달러) 대비 하방 위험 존재. 영상 자체는 특정 매수·매도 권유보다 포트폴리오 분석과 밸류에이션 도구 소개에 중점.
다듬은 글
Michael burry just spent everything on these seven stocks this is his portfolio now in this video we'll take a detailed look into buries most recent stock portfolio to help get a better sense of how he positioned himself for success and to understand the reasoning and thought process behind his investments let's jump right in and investment content like this in the future so this is burry stock portfolio as of the end of September 30th 2019 and it's a very concentrated portfolio only investing in seven stocks in fact the vast majority of this portfolio is invested specifically in beaten-down retail stocks his top seven positions in order of portfolio weighting are gamestop tailored brands alphabet or Google sportsman warehouse Holdings Bed Bath & Beyond Canadian Natural Resources Limited and new Vectra Corporation we'll be discussing this in much more detail but I want to provide a little bit of context for how we actually got here to begin with you see back in late 2018 we actually saw for the first time a glimpse into Michael Bray's portfolio when he released his first 13f filing to the SEC in over several years now while that portfolio was still concentrated it was a bit more diverse in holding 16 Holdings and over the last year only four stocks from that original filing still remain in his current portfolio the next quarter filing was for stocks held at the end of March 2019 and in this case brewery sold out of 5 of his previous investments added 3 more and adjusted the waiting's on the Romanian investments the performance of these stocks following March was lackluster and burry was actually down about 10% relative to the S&P 500 which was roughly flat around that time next quarter at the end of June there was even more portfolio turnover where each stocks were completely sold out of and for new positions added to the portfolio after coming off a rough quarter the next quarters performance was roughly similar to the SMP 500 with Murray's portfolio up 2.2 percent versus 2.9 in the SP now in between that second quarter filing and the third quarter filing we're looking at now burry actually took an activist position with two stocks in his portfolio both of them beaten down retail stocks the first one being Gamestop and the second one being tailored brands the investment thesis and activists effort for burry on both of these stocks was based on the argument that they were significantly undervalued compared to their future cashflows but management had poor capital allocation strategies Berea argued to be better off for investors if the management of each of these companies used excess cash to buy back shares in the market while prices were at or near all-time lows due to extreme market pessimism as we'll see soon these activists efforts appear to have paid off well for Berea this quarter then in September brewery rings the warning bell about index funds and a potential ETF passive bubble expressing his concerns about those investments in an interview with Bloomberg which of course begged the question given those concerns how was Michael burry investing his money and to that burry said he liked small cat value stocks because they tend to be under representative in passive funds which brings us to today and burries current portfolio which really reflects his fund's investment philosophy not only as a Value Fund but as an opportunistic fund since the last quarter burry sold out of seven of his stock positions concentrating his portfolio into what he believes are his best investment opportunities so let's first take a look at some visualizations of burries portfolio and then we can go back to the numbers and analyze each of these investments in a little more detail so the first graph I'd like to take a look at is the portfolio holding changes graph now what this graph tells us is the relative proportion as a percentage of the portfolio that each stock was invested in at the time of filing the red bar represents the percent of the portfolio each stock was in during last filing and the blue bar represents the percent of portfolio this filing so these standalone blue bars represent completely new positions in the portfolio blue bars above the red shading represent a higher proportion of the portfolio in those stocks during this filing and the red shading without blue bars are the exited positions so from this we can see that burry is running a very concentrated value stock portfolio at the time of filing at the end of September GameStop was roughly 28% of his portfolio as his largest position his second largest position tailored brands was about 21% so combined those top two positions make up nearly 50% of the entire portfolio the next three alphabet sportsman warehouse holdings and Bed Bath & Beyond each make up between 13 and 16 percent so in total if you look at the top five positions they make up roughly 93 percent of the entire portfolio brewery's position in Canadian natural resources and is a much smaller bet in Vectra corporation are relatively a much smaller piece of his portfolio now one thing I should note about these stocks listed in 13f filing and the reason why there's an asterisks here is because the stocks listed in the latest filing likely only represent about eighteen percent of the total assets under management at scion this is based on the September 4th Bloomberg article robery was stated to oversee about 340 million dollars if you look at the value of the stock holdings at time of filing it was roughly sixty million dollars which means that burry has roughly two hundred eighty million dollars invested in other assets beyond stocks but focusing back on the stock investments that we do know about buries not only concentrated in a small number of stocks but in a very specific sector in this case over seventy six percent of his portfolio is invested in stocks in the consumer discretionary sector and in fact all these are specialty retailers gamestop is a specialty retailer that specializes in sawing video games and related hardware tailored brands specializes in selling men's suits sportsmen warehouse holding cells outdoor camping and sports equipment and Bed Bath & Beyond is a specialized home furnishing store this pie chart just gives another visual example of the degree of concentration in the portfolio now one thing to keep in mind with concentrated portfolios is that when you have a large percentage of your portfolio invested in an individual stock the overall price of your portfolio tends to be more volatile in the short term with a concentrated portfolio you can see very large swings either up or down in the value of your portfolio even day-to-day we saw an example of this volatility as a result of portfolio concentration and burns portfolio following his q1 filing well buries portfolio was down about 10% that quarter he more than made up for at this quarter in this portfolio holdings performance graph the blue shading represents the value of each position at the time of filing and the red bar represents the value of the position at the time of this recording it's been just 45 days later since filing and already all of burries top 5 portfolios have shown very meaningful stock price appreciation to get a better sense of this breakdown we can take a look at the portfolio return by holding over this 45-day period to see how much each stock contributed to the total return in the portfolio over this time period so from this we can calculate that Michael burry stock portfolio in total is up about 17% over just the last 45 days this is an incredible return and it's part of the reason why deep value or contrarian investing is a very difficult thing to do because you have to have the conviction to hold on to your positions even in a quarter where you're underperforming the market by over ten percent what's even more incredible and you can't fully tell from this graph is that the true portfolio gain that Berea Chief from Gamestop is likely significantly understated in this graph you see this only counts portfolio returned since the day of filing which was September 30th to now and although gamestop was up 6.5% in this period the majority of that gain actually came earlier remember bray wrote his letter to gamestop august 16th and on august 19th he reported that he owned 3 million shares or 3.3 percent of gamestop you'll see that burries letter effectively marked the bottom for the stock at a price of three dollars and 32 cents since he released that letter GameStop stock is up over 70% now well burry had owned Gamestop shares in the past he sold out his position as of the filing before this one likely so he could begin accumulating an even larger position at a lower cost basis than pursue activist efforts with the company in an effort to try and improve capital allocation and investor returns so far it looks like he's been very successful in achieving that with gamestop so to get a comparison Murray's stock portfolio holdings are up 17% over the last 45 days this is compared to about 4% in the S&P 500 over the same period in time and a little over a 10 percent return in my individual stock holdings over the same period of time one thing to note is that over this period it seems that value stocks and especially deep value stocks have relatively outperformed the broader market now keep in mind this is over a very short period in time 45 days is not long by any means but it'll be interesting to see if this trend continues in the future what's interesting about value investing is that over the short term it doesn't always outperform the market and you may be down year-to-year compared to the S&P 500 however over the long-term value investing tends to provide better risk adjusted returns achieving higher returns with the same risk or the same returns with lower risk either way this will be a fascinating dynamic to watch over the long term so next we can provide a bit of commentary on each of Murray's individual positions and then take a look at a more in-depth valuation model for one of his stocks so we've discussed GameStop a lot especially with but I think the main investment thesis is relatively clear at this point burry believes that with the upcoming new console cycle game stops core business won't decline as fast as the market thinks it does unfortunately another thing that was driving market pessimism would Game Stop was investors lack of trust with management management was well compensated for leading a significant trail of shareholder value destruction which is part of the reason why that management was completely removed and replaced in 2019 going forward Bernie and other stockholders would like to see more shareholder-friendly capital allocation giving cash back to shareholders in the form of buybacks well share prices are relatively low and it's an efficient use of capital Taylor branch shares a similar investment thesis to gamestop the stock is trading extremely cheaply but the business is facing declining earnings and investors are not confident with management in addition to that Taylor branch has a very high debt level so it's likely that before Taylor brands is able to deploy a significant amount of cash for buybacks they're going to have to focus first on paying down debt investor concern over elevated debt levels is one reason why I think the stock price has been relatively stagnant even over this period where we've seen significant appreciation from any value stocks alphabet stock price recently hit an all-time high and if you want a more in-depth analysis on the company on the stock you can take a look at a previous video I did specifically devoted to analyzing alphabet stock it'll be the third link in the description below sports and warehouse Holdings and Bed Bath & Beyond again are both specialty retailers whose stocks took quite a beating through August this left them trading very cheaply relative to cash flow from extreme market pessimism due to investor concerns over many specialty retailers at that time Canadian natural resources as a company I'm not too familiar with but they are an independent oil and gas producer they have a market cap of roughly thirty three billion pay a dividend of about four percent and are trading below market valuations relative to earnings and free cash flow this represents about six percent of Barry's portfolio and he likely knows something that we don't so it'll be interesting to see where this position lands and his portfolio in future updates new Vectra corporation is a medical device company this is a very small position in various portfolio and makes up less than a percent the company recently filed for chapter 11 bankruptcy so my view is very likely view this bed as having binary options probably the most likely outcome is bankruptcy with negligible value to share holder's but on the chance they do stay solvent there could be significant upside for the Romanian shareholders in this case it looked like it didn't work out but it has negligible effect on Barry's portfolio so finally we'll be taking a look at a more in-depth valuation model for one of burry stocks in this case I'll be using the valuation calculator in my spreadsheet library and if you want to download a copy for yourself you can check the second link in the description below in fact specifically just for this video I added a lot of new features to help visualize some specific concepts so what you see now version 3 won't be available for a few more weeks as I finalize things you'll still have full access to the main model and I'll provide an update when this one's fully released so I know this looks like a lot but it's actually not too bad we'll break it down into the main three sections the first section is inputs the next section is the outputs whether we actually generate from our assumptions and the rest are the visualizations for understanding the valuation so in this case we're looking at evaluation for gamestop in this case in three scenarios a favorable scenario a base case scenario than also an unfavorable scenario the way I'm modeling it the only difference in these three scenarios is in their expected earnings growth rate and their ending expected priced earnings multiple in the unfavorable case we're assuming a lower multiple and in the favorable case we're assuming a higher multiple since this is a two-stage model for the first two years we're going to assume the GameStop is actually able to increase earnings through one the release of the new console cycle and two better cost management which they've stated is one of their goals after those two years we'll assume gamestop resumes a secular decline in earnings from years 3 onward and in the case of the unfavorable situation there's actually no increase in earnings for the new console cycle and earnings are expected to decline 15% annually starting in year 3 so with this we can model the expected price we'd need to pay for the stock today in order to achieve a roughly 12% rate of return so in the base case model we would need to buy at six dollars and 15 cents and since gamestop no longer pays a dividend we would get 100% of that return from the sale of stock in five years at roughly $10.80 which is equivalent to our projected one dollar and 36 cents of earnings per share times an assumed 8% priced earnings multiple now if you believe those assumptions to be true then a current stock price below that would be a margin of safety likely indicating the possibility of higher upside potential if these play out or potentially lower downside risk if they don't so I don't know the exact assumptions that Brewer was using in his modeling but if he had something similar to this as a base case then when he was buying the stock roughly between three and a half dollars and four and a half dollars during his heavy accumulation period then he was buying at a very healthy margin of safety to his base case scenario so in his view is very likely that he was going to see rates of return well in excess of 12% per year and in reality he did achieve that because over the next three months he saw returns of roughly forty to fifty percent now while it's much less likely that we see assumptions hold true similar to the favorable scenario if that were to occur and we see earnings roughly double over the next two years and then fall off at a more gradual rate of decline then gamestop is still significantly undervalued today with a high margin of safety however when modeling I usually don't spend too much time on the favorable cases because I'm more concerned about the unfavorable cases it's those unfavorable cases that give you a better idea of what the true downside risk is for the stock so in an unfavorable scenario the fair valuation for a 12% return is roughly two dollars and 30 cents so that doesn't look too great considering the current prices are more than double that however if we change our expected rate of return from 12% to 0% we get a price of four dollars and five cents so what this price means at a 0% required rate of return is that if all these assumptions hold true if we buy at or below four dollars and five cents we won't lose money so another way to think of this is that with the current price of five dollars and 66 cents you'll lose about a dollar sixty cents if the unfavorable scenario plays out so burry might have seen a similar limited downside risk when he bought into game stops so heavily it may have been part of the reason why it's his largest position in his portfolio today I want to take a look back at the base case scenario just to explain these visualizations the graph in the upper left is the expected share price and value of reinvested dividends at the end of each year below that is the expected earnings per share and dividends for each year what I find are the more interesting graphs are actually the return component amount and also return component distribution so for the return component amount this assumes you invest $10,000 and the assumptions in the model play out this shows you how much of your return really comes from increases in the growth of earnings versus that of increases in valuation and also compares that to the dividends that you receive over time so based on the model early on the majority of the value of the increase in the stock comes from an increase in earnings but then as you go over to year five as the earnings decrease the majority of the value instead comes from valuation or multiple expansion meaning investors are willing to pay more for the same dollar of earnings this means that for your investment thesis to hold you're relying on about four percent of your returns to come from increases in earnings and about ninety five percent of that to come from increases in valuation so this return component distribution chart can give you a sense of within an investment where you really rely on your returns from in the case of being so heavily weighted towards valuation there needs to be some kind of catalysts cause the market to rewrite this stock and have investors trade it at a higher price to earnings multiple some examples of this could include aggressive buybacks or renewed interest from private equity having only a small portion of your returns come from earnings means that your investment thesis is not as heavily dependent on earnings growth but as we can see from the valuation more dependent on changes in investor sentiment there's so much we can do with this model in these visualizations and I think it'll be a really useful tool in the future so I hope you enjoyed the little preview and I hope to have this up to the group in about a week or two I hope you enjoyed this video I always find these portfolio reviews interesting and Michael burries has one of the most concentrated portfolios I've seen which makes it easy to track but also very interesting let me know what you think about Michael burries portfolio in the comments section below and until next time next video
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