저자: PeterLynch/영상진행자MichaelJay · 외국인
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결론: 변동성 자체는 나쁘지 않으며, 장기 투자자에게는 낮은 가격에 우량주를 더 살 기회가 된다. [Peter Lynch 인터뷰 주장] 변동성은 좋은 것이며 시장 등락을 줄이려는 노력은 큰 의미가 없다고 봤다. 1972년 Taco Bell이 14달러에서 1달러로 폭락했을 때 7달러부터 매수해 보유했고, 1978년 펩시콜라에 42달러에 인수되며 마젤란펀드 최대 포지션이 됐다고 회고했다. 기업 이익은 연 약 8% 성장하므로 증시는 약 9년마다 두 배가 되어야 한다는 논리를 제시했다. 그는 향후 3800포인트 부근에서 다음 500~600포인트는 방향을 알 수 없지만 8~9년 내 두 배가 될 것으로 봤다. 10월의 시장 리스크를 언급했고, 1987년 10월 블랙먼데이 때 펀드가 약 120억달러에서 80억달러로 줄었던 경험을 이야기했다. 그는 장기적으로 시장이 떨어진 해가 많아도 보유 종목을 잘 이해하고 있으면 된다고 말했다. 다만 Dow 4만 전망에 대해서는 동전 던지기로 답하며 예측 자체를 부정했다. [진행자 Michael Jay 주장] 가격과 가치를 구분해야 하며, 펀더멘털이 변하지 않았다면 가격 하락은 매수 기회일 수 있다고 봤다. 2020년 3월 Discover Financial이 70달러 매수 후 50% 이상 하락하자 35달러, 45달러에 추가 매수한 사례를 들었고, 이후 주가가 약 90달러 수준이라고 소개했다. Lowe's와 Facebook도 큰 낙폭 후 기회였다고 언급했다. 포트폴리오 전체 변동성은 개별 종목보다 심리적 부담이 크므로 금, 현금 등 비상관 자산을 섞어 변동성을 줄일 수 있다고 권했다. 단기 전술적 방어 배분에도 쓸 수 있으며 Portfolio Charts 사이트를 추천했다. S&P 500 단독 투자는 수익률이 좋았지만 낙폭이 가장 깊고 길다는 점을 지적했다. [리스크/조건] 가격이 내재가치보다 낮게 샀을 때만 유효하며, 계속 하락하는 종목은 해당되지 않는다. 자신이 감당할 수 있는 변동성 수준을 먼저 확인해야 한다. [출연자 전망] Peter Lynch는 장기적으로 증시가 두 배씩 오를 것으로 봤고, Michael Jay는 하락 시 분할 매수를 장기 관점에서 긍정적으로 봤다. 단기 방향에 대한 구체적 예측은 없었다.
다듬은 글
are you concerned about the volatility in the uh financial markets today do you think something needs to be done okay to reduce it i i love volatility i i think i remember when uh in 1972 the market went from down dramatically and taco bell went from 14 to one they had no debt they never had a restaurant close and i started buying at seven but i kept on to it and it went to one and uh it was the largest position of magellan in 1978 when it was bought out from by 42 dollars by pepsicola and i think it would have gone to 400 if they didn't buy it out i think volatility is terrific i think it is very i think these calls are very important i don't think the market going up 80 points one day and down 80 the next uh is a good thing for the public i think that's not a very good thing but i think all these callers and all these other things to keep the volatility down each day is important but the market's going to go up and down well the human nature hasn't changed a lot in 25 000 years and some of that will come out of left field and uh the market will go down or the market will go up so volatility will occur and markets will continue to have these ups and downs i think that's a great opportunity if people can understand what they own if they don't understand what they own they can own mutual funds try and figure out mutual funds they own and keep adding to it over basic corporate profits have grown about eight percent a year historically so corporate profits double about every nine years the stock market ought to double about every nine years so i think the next market's about 3800 today 3700 i'm pretty convinced the next 3800 points will be up it won't be down the next 500 points the next 600 points don't know which way to go so the market ought to double in the next eight or nine years it ought to double again in the 89 years after that because profits will go up 80 a year and and stocks will follow that's all there is to it we're in the month of october beware of the month of october the witching month for the stock market what do you see uh as the outlook for this month and when do you think the dow will hit 4 000.
the uh october has always been a special month i remember in 1987 i was very uh you know i was very convinced that mark was no it was not in trouble and i didn't worry about things and karen and i had planned this great uh golf vacation to ireland and we're gonna visit one course and save a little house and visit another go along the west coast of ireland and play golf and we left on a thursday night and the market went down 55 points that day which was not too good and um the next day we got to ireland because the time difference we'd complete our day and i got back the hotel and i called in the market going down 112 on friday i said to carolyn uh you know i think if the if the mark goes down on monday uh you know we're gonna have to go back and uh and so we might as well we stayed there for the weekend and uh and on monday the market went down 580 points and my fund went from uh i think 12 billion to eight billion and uh that gets your attention you know when uh two working days you know i said man the end of this week i'd be uh have no fun now there wasn't a lot i could do i mean here i was on monday because the market uh didn't open you know by 12 o'clock it was in ireland it was still uh seven o'clock in new york so we did spend that day and we uh we did we played around golf in the morning then we went somewhere and so watch the market deteriorate and and i did come back there wasn't nothing i could do i mean just uh nothing i do about it but i think my shareholders they call up and they said what's lynch doing they say well he's on the sixth hole and he's uh you know he's even power up to now but he's in a trap this could be you know this could be a triple bogey here this could be a could be a beginning and uh i don't i don't think that's exactly what they want to hear that so i could do something about this damn thing so i came back home and suffered with everybody else and and uh fortunately uh i was very consistent uh my uh the market went down when i ran magellan on 13 years the market went down nine times and every time mark went down magellan went down it was nine for nine and uh you know because it's it's great it's very important it's another one of these numbers you gotta write down if you put a thousand dollars in a stock all you can lose is a thousand i've done that several times and uh but if you're right you can make five thousand ten thousand twenty thousand so this business you don't have to be right one or two times you can be right one out of four it's a long time the times you're right you know the company's doing well you know they're doing a great job and you add to it or at least you don't sell it which is a terrible tragedy so you can make more money on the upside so i just i just rolled those out and i will now flip a coin to tell you where the market will go to 4 000.
this year or next year heads means it goes up is a two headed coin uh the market will go up in the next year that's it that's all i ever know about the stock market as peter lynch described volatility on its own isn't a bad thing and can actually be a pretty powerful tool for improving investor returns if you have a strong enough stomach now when we talk about volatility regarding stocks there's usually two main discussions the price volatility of an individual stock versus the price volatility of the stock market or an entire investment portfolio when investing in individual stocks it can sometimes come as a disappointment if you buy a stock and then see its price full however it's important to distinguish between price and value while the price of the stock may change very quickly in the market the underlying value of the company which is based on the performance of the underlying business usually doesn't change that quickly so all else being equal if the fundamentals of the company haven't changed and the only thing that's really changed is the stock price well then if you like this stock at twenty four dollars per share you should love it at 17.
for most quality companies stock volatility that creates meaningful price declines often turn out to be great buying opportunities in hindsight we saw this exact occurrence in march of 2020 during the peak of uncertainty and volatility some individual stocks like discover financial saw periods of extreme volatility and significant stock declines in the case of discover it was down well over 50 percent in just a few weeks dropping below 25 dollars per share a price not seen since 2011 nine years ago now well there was some justifiable uncertainty surrounding the future at that time for those that looked at discover's balance sheet and underlying business they would have seen that the company was actually well positioned for whatever may lay ahead this extreme price volatility created a great opportunity for investors who could purchase a company which was temporarily trading at a price significantly below its true intrinsic value now prior to march i had previously purchased discover stock for about 70 dollars per share and when i saw his price decline by more than half yes the value of my position had declined by half but now i could purchase twice as many shares for the same amount as my initial purchase so that's exactly what i did ended up purchasing more shares of discover at around 35 dollars per share and then one more time around 45 per share since then investors have appeared to realize that the underlying value of the business is actually worth a lot more than 45 dollars per share and the stock is currently trading at around 90 this is just one example of extreme price volatility that created opportunities during that time lowes was another stock that saw a decline of over 50 percent and was a great opportunity for investors to add or initiate a new position even a fast-growing company with no debt on its balance sheet like facebook saw its price decline by over one-third very quickly during the crisis and will sudden volatility or price declines may be frustrating for investors who just purchased prior to those declines as long as you're paying a price less than the underlying intrinsic value of the company you should do quite well long term even if you had bought facebook then at its previous all-time high in january of 2020 while you did experience a temporary price decline you had the opportunity to add more shares at a lower cost basis which ultimately would put you in a better position than if the stock only continued to rise and that's one of the key takeaways when it comes to volatility you need to make sure you're able to handle it but if you do as a long-term investor you will be better off in the long run because that stock price volatility allows you more chances to buy companies at attractive prices that being said when thinking about the volatility of your entire investment portfolio there are a couple aspects that make it a bit different compared to thinking about the volatility of an individual stock one difference is is that when the price of an individual stock goes down you can use some cash either from your income or potentially from a cash reserve in your portfolio to then buy that stock if you think it's an attractive price and good value and if you didn't have cash available you have the option of selling off some of your other positions potentially that may be a bit overvalued or fully valued at the time to raise cash for that new purchase however when your entire portfolio experiences price volatility unless you have cash set aside specifically for a drawdown you might not have much potential to take any new actions beyond new contributions from your income and if you're at a point in your life where you're actually withdrawing from your portfolio and no longer making new contributions your actions may be limited to cutting expenses to minimize further reductions in portfolio value during the drawdown this leads to the second distinction that declines in your total portfolio will likely have a greater mental and emotional impact than declines from a single stock this is especially taxing if you have a low risk tolerance or tend to lose sleep when your portfolio sees a large decline in price so you should make sure you have an answer to these important questions when it comes to your investment strategy to be fully prepared for future volatility one of those questions is are you going to take action to reduce the volatility of your stock investments by adding other non-stock investments to your portfolio adding non-correlated assets like gold or cash either as a permanent or temporary asset allocation within a portfolio can help reduce the overall portfolio volatility during periods of stock price declines one of the best tools to help answer this question is a free website that i love called portfolio charts which has the best visualizations for understanding risk within a portfolio and the impact that different asset allocations have historically had on portfolio drawdowns by potentially sacrificing some upside potential within a portfolio you can make significant reductions in the potential volatility of the overall portfolio or be potentially used as a shorter term tactical allocation to be a bit more defensive in your portfolio to wait for a more opportune time before reallocating to a more aggressive strategy investing only in a total stock market index like the s p 500 historically has had some of the best returns of most modern portfolios that being said it also has some of the worst risk characteristics including both the deepest and longest drawdowns in the portfolio now some investors have made the conscious decision to embrace volatility in the pursuit of higher returns and there is nothing wrong with having an aggressive portfolio so long as you understand that there will be price declines and periods of underperformance that you will have to stomach once you really understand volatility you come to expect it it doesn't surprise you anymore and it shouldn't really concern you because you already have a plan in place tuning out the noise as much as possible and continuing to add to quality companies and assets when prices are down and attractive overall i hope you enjoyed the wisdom and perspective from peter lynch and got something from this video if you haven't subscribed already consider doing so as i have more content coming in the future until then thank you so much for watching my name is michael and i will see you in the next video
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