저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리(Scion Asset Management)의 2020년 6월 30일 기준 포트폴리오는 콜옵션 비중이 높은 공격적 구성이며, 경기 회복 베팅과 게임스탑 숏스퀴즈 가능성에 주목할 만하다. 포트폴리오 구조: 13F 기준 보유 29개 중 콜옵션 16개, 주식 13개 수준이며 자산의 약 71%가 옵션, 약 29%가 주식이다. 알파벳 콜옵션 단독 비중이 약 36%(약 1.13억 달러)로 가장 크고, 페이스북·부킹홀딩스·골드만삭스 콜옵션과 합치면 상위 4개가 50% 이상이다. 단일 주식 최대 보유는 게임스탑으로 약 4% 수준이었다. 테마 해석: 주요 테마는 빅테크 콜옵션(알파벳·페이스북 중심, 나머지 대형 기술주 포함)이다. 저자는 알파벳·페이스북을 5대 빅테크 중 가장 매력적인 밸류에이션으로 보고 자신도 보유한다고 밝혔다. 여행·예약(부킹홀딩스, 트립닷컴), 대형은행, 카지노 리조트(라스베이거스 샌즈, 윈 리조트)에도 소규모 포지션이 있어 경기 회복 베팅으로 해석된다. 게임스탑: 최근 분기 대비 약 170% 상승해 포트폴리오 내 최고 성과 종목이며, 같은 기간 포트폴리오 수익률은 약 19%로 S&P500을 상회했다고 설명한다. 공매도 잔고가 유통주식의 100%를 넘는 수준이라 숏스퀴즈 가능성이 거론되며, 촉매로 라이언 코언 영입, 마이크로소프트 파트너십, 신규 콘솔 사이클이 제시된다. 단기적으로 주당 30~50달러까지 언급되며 이 경우 버리의 순이익이 1억 달러를 넘는다는 추정이 나온다. 리스크·조건: 콜옵션은 레버리지로 상방이 크지만 손실 위험도 크고, 옵션 원가가 없어 실제 수익은 확인 불가하다. 옵션 가격은 만기 접근 시 민감하다. 가치 함정(테일러드 브랜즈) 사례도 언급된다. 출연자 전망: 기술주 랠리 후 알파벳·페이스북 콜옵션 축소 가능성을 추측하고, 게임스탑 전량 유지 시 강한 확신 신호로, 매도 시 숏스퀴즈 종료 신호로 해석할 수 있다고 말한다. 다만 콘솔 사이클 전까지 완전 청산 가능성은 낮다고 본다.
다듬은 글
dr michael bury of the big short became famous for making millions shorting subprime mortgages during the housing and financial crisis of 2008. now over a decade later he's still making millions but this time on the opposite side of the trade behind me is the portfolio of scion asset management dr bruy's firm and he has some very interesting long positions that i think are worth taking a look at while dr bury's portfolio strategy is certainly more active than i would say most long-term investors there are likely still insights we can gain from his trading strategy and investment philosophy with that said let's take a more detailed look at the portfolio now these are the holdings of cyan asset management as of june 30th 2020 and we'll likely see the next reporting in mid-october where it'll show the updated holdings as of the end of september the 13th filing only shows long stock and option positions in this case dr brewery has 29 individual positions within the portfolio overall just from this view it's actually looks like a fairly aggressive portfolio given that there is a significant amount of call options on specific stocks by my count 16 of those 29 positions are actually call option positions and then the remainder are actual stock holdings this pie chart shows the proportion of assets invested at the time of filing in each investment and what really stands out here is the very large concentration in the call options on alphabet stock in this case at the time of filing 36 or over a third of the entire portfolio was invested in call options on alphabet stock if you combine that with also the amount invested in facebook call options booking holdings call options and goldman sachs call options those four positions alone make up over fifty percent of the portfolio the largest actual stock holding at the time of filing only made up roughly four percent of the portfolio and that was gamestop and taking a more general look if we group the assets between stocks and call options roughly 71 of the portfolio is actually in the form of options and only a roughly 29 is actual stock holdings now as i've noticed in the past with barry's portfolio you can often identify some investment themes probably the most dominant theme here would be his call options in tech stocks specifically those large positions in google and facebook again that call option on alphabet stock alone being worth roughly 113 million dollars at the time of filing at the end of june 2020.
and when it comes to these call options particularly these call options on tech stocks like alphabet and facebook one might ask why is berry taking such an aggressive position here well interestingly when it comes to these call options on tech stock brewery's not the only one with that idea in fact later in september it was revealed that softbank the large japanese conglomerate had also taken very large call option positions in the mega cap tech stocks it was later identified that these stocks were primarily in the seven largest tech stocks including amazon adobe alphabet which is again similar to burry's position netflix salesforce microsoft and facebook additionally with the rise of robinhood and other low-cost brokerage platforms options trading is easier than ever and we've seen a large increase in retail option trades specifically call options on these tech stocks brewery potentially seeing that large influx of retail traders may have predicted the large rise in price in tech stocks we've seen since the crash in march using call options instead of just owning the stock outright is effectively a way to leverage your position and get greater potential upside if the stock price rises though with significantly more risk it's possible and also quite likely that bury has hedged these call option positions so that bury won't be at the risk of a total loss also it's encouraging to see that both alphabet and facebook are the top two tech positions here because of the five large mega cap tech stocks the other three being amazon apple and microsoft i did a valuation a little while back and also agreed that alphabet and facebook of the five big tech were the most attractively valued at least in my view which is why i owned both of them within my own investment portfolio interestingly brewery was also invested in both booking holdings in the form of a call option as well as a stock position in trip.com both are travel and booking companies which were hit hard during this economic recession and perhaps at the time bury purchased these positions he thought that investors were being too pessimistic about future expectations similarly brewery also has fairly modest positions and call options on several large banks now financials are a sector that has seen significant underperformance compared to the general market during this recession part of this is likely due to higher loan losses and lower interest income from investments however with the price drop does come lower valuation levels which brewery might potentially find attractive if interest rates were to eventually rise again in the future and while smaller positions bury still does have some call options on gaming resorts including las vegas sands corporation and wynn resorts now the gaming industry was significantly hit and impacted by this recession similar to the travel and financial industries so when you look at these three investment themes together this looks like to me as a bet on an economic recovery and the method of doing that would be to look at and invest in the most impacted stocks in terms of price which likely have the most potential upside coming out of a recession and through an economic recovery additionally i think it's worth pointing out maybe even discussing further two of brewery's deep value stock investments now these two investments in particular as of june 2020 have been the best performing investments in his portfolio now i see that based on only the change in stock price it's possible that some of his option positions during this time may have seen a greater change in that options price over the same period but unfortunately we don't know the cost basis or price at which brewery initiated those option positions a call option will only have value if the price of a stock rises above the strike price at expiration so to understand that for a little more for alphabet stock we know that bury initiated the call position at some point between april 1st and june 30.
so if you initiate the position in june 30th the price of alphabet stock since that time has risen about 11 now had he initiated that position at the beginning of april alphabet would have seen roughly a 42 increase in stock price over that period given that call option pricing is very sensitive to changes in price especially as the option gets closer to expiration it's hard to determine how much he actually gained from those options most likely we'll need to wait until mid-october when we see that september filing to get a better sense but let's get back to those positions and those deep value stocks and in particular i want to take a closer look at gamestop the largest individual stock position within brewery's portfolio now over this period in time gamestop stock is up over 170 percent this is the best performing investment in his portfolio over this time period using change in stock price as a proxy for the change in option price of his positions brewery's return since his last filing has been roughly 19 which has beaten the s p 500 since again his last filing in june if you look at how each of the individual components of his portfolio contributed to that return the largest portfolio contributor by far was his position in gamestop which of that 19 return gamestop was attributable to about a third of it now for many years the short thesis on gamestop for those betting against the company and the stock has been that digital downloads and increased internet speeds will make physical disks and media obsolete and gamestop's role as a middleman will finally be over however there have been a series of catalysts that have shaken that short thesis and are likely what bury was betting on when he invested heavily into the stock over the last year one of those catalysts was an announcement by ryan conan the co-founder and former ceo of the e-commerce company chewie now chewie was acquired in 2017 by petsmart but ryan has a very strong background and expertise in e-commerce retail which many people believe could be just what gamestop needs more recently in october gamestop announced that they were entering into an enterprise and commercial partnership with microsoft now with part of that arrangement gamestop will receive a portion of the lifetime revenue for all customers brought into the xbox ecosystem through a purchase through gamestop now this partnership could potentially even grow further down the road as microsoft has now decided that they are eliminating all their retail stores with no direct storefront retail presence anymore microsoft may see gamestop as a potential outlet in the future for selling other microsoft products as well not just the xbox whether that fully materializes or not remains to be seen but is again another potential catalyst down the road but more generally why are these catalysts having such an outsized impact on the stock price well the short answer comes down to that gamestop is one of the most shorted stocks on the market by shorting a stock you sell it now in hopes to buy it back in the future at a lower price the issue is is that if the price increases well then you'll have to buy back the stock at a higher price to cover your position for a loss if the price continues to rise even further more short sellers may be forced to close their positions as well and buy back the stock further increasing the price this is called a short squeeze and can cause a very significant increase in price in a short period of time and significant losses for short sellers a historical example of a short squeeze would be with volkswagen stock which from a period from 2005 to 2009 saw its price increase by over 10 times now this was driven primarily by a short squeeze where many people were short the stock but as the price continued to rise short sellers were forced to buy back at a higher price to close their position and while the stock is up over hundred percent from its lows more than one hundred percent of the outstanding shares are shorted so there's still a lot of potential room for a short squeeze to continue further if there are additional catalysts and as the console release cycle is beginning in this winter continuing to stay short here is likely a very risky proposition michael bury knew this setup would eventually occur it took time for it to occur but now that is actually in the process bird has set himself up very nicely for a large payday in the future since june brewery's already made 20 million from gamestop stock and it'll be interesting to see if he has sold out any of his position further in the next filing he reduced his position by roughly a quarter million in the three months prior to june but if we were to see a real short squeeze coming that would bring down the short as a percentage of float its possible gamestop stock could see at least in the short term prices of upwards of any to 30 40 even 50 dollars per share if burry were to exit at the high end of that range his net gains would be over 100 million dollars on his single position now when it comes to understanding bury and his investment philosophy i think his quote from his 2001 shareholder letter really sums this up nicely he says as much as the fund is a value fund it's an opportunistic fund and as much as i enthusiastically explore the value of each business behind every stock i seek the pockets of the market that are the most inefficient the most temporarily imbalanced in terms of price whatever extra return this fund will earned will be born of buying absurdly cheap rather than selling dearly smitten i certainly have no proven ability to pick tops i do not anticipate attempting such a feat in the future rather fully aware that wonderful businesses make wonderful investments only at wonderful prices i will continue to seek out the bargains amid the refuse dr michael bury has been known to be a contrarian investor when looking for those pockets of value amid the refuse and i see this current portfolio as no deviation from that philosophy betting on an economic recovery through financials travel and gaming stocks is certainly against the grain additionally many were very skeptical of his investments in deep value stocks like gamestop and bed bath and beyond but those two have turned out to work quite well in his favor however investing in deep value won't always work out as there are some value traps out there tailored brands was one of them that michael burrie invested in which unfortunately for him did not pan out overall with such a concentrated portfolio in options and his game stop position now tripled in size i'm curious what adjustments michael bury has made over these last three months from the end of june to the end of september which will be revealed to us soon if i were to speculate given the run-up we've seen in tech stocks particularly for facebook and google i would expect that the position on those call options would likely to be trimmed down some maybe i'm wrong here but that would be my guess in addition for gamestop shareholders it would be an encouraging sign if bury were to maintain his full gamestop position and not sell any shares through the quarter maintaining his position of almost 3 million shares of gamestop would signal to the market that he's convinced that the price of gamestop shares are worth more now whether that's in the potential long run or in the short run caused by a short squeeze i'm not a hundred percent sure on the other hand if he were to sell out or reduce his position it would signal that he believes that the short squeeze has run its course and any further catalysts are unlikely to change the long-term thesis for gamestop however given his history with the stock and his activist letters in the past i think it's unlikely he will to completely move out of his position prior to the console cycle which is coming up this winter so hopefully you enjoyed this portfolio review as much as i did for me it's fun to see other investors portfolios sort of pick their mind and see how they're thinking about different types of investments and going about their investment strategy do you agree or disagree with any of brewery's holdings and what changes do you think he'll be making next quarter until next time thank you so much for watching my name is michael i will see you in the next video
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