저자: PeterLynch · 외국인
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결론: 하락하는 주식은 가격이 아니라 사업 내용을 이해하고 보유 여부를 판단해야 하며, 싸 보인다는 이유만으로 사거나 팔면 안 된다. [핵심 주장 1: 이해하지 못하는 주식은 사지 말라] - 피터 린치는 주가 하락 자체가 매수 근거가 되지 않으며, 사업을 모르면 하락 때 공포로 매도하게 된다고 주장 - 사례: 카이저 인더스트리는 26달러에서 16달러로 떨어졌고, 이후 3달러까지 하락했으나 부채가 거의 없고 자산 가치가 시가총액보다 컸음 - 결국 주주에게 자산을 나눠주는 방식으로 청산되어 주당 약 50달러가 지급됨 - 린치는 사업 내용을 모르면 하락 때 무엇을 해야 할지 알 수 없다고 강조 [핵심 주장 2: 주가는 반드시 돌아오지 않는다] - S&P500 지수는 장기 상승했지만 개별 종목은 회복하지 못할 수 있음 - 사례로 RCA, 플로피디스크, 웨스턴유니온 등을 제시 - 하락 후 회복은 희망일 뿐이며 장기 투자 전략으로 부적절하다고 주장 - 주가가 떨어졌을 때 자문할 질문: 하락이 사업 펀더멘털로 정당화되는가, 과거 실적만 보고 판단하는가 [핵심 주장 3: 주가가 낮다고 위험이 낮은 것은 아님] - 주당 가격 자체는 저평가 여부를 말해주지 않음 - 3달러 주식도 0이 될 수 있어 손실 가능성은 100달러 주식과 동일(투자금 기준) - 공매도 투자자는 하락 종목을 낮은 가격에서도 계속 공매도하며 0을 목표로 한다고 설명 - 제이씨페니 사례: 2007년 85달러에서 하락 후 2024년 5월 약 0.25달러까지 떨어짐, 낮은 주가는 추가 조사가 필요한 경고 신호 [기타 언급] - 워런 버핏의 '능력 범위(circle of competence)' 개념 소개 - 크로거: 2017년 아마존의 홀푸드 인수 후 주가 약 30% 급락 → 발언자는 자신의 소비 경험을 근거로 과잉 반응이라 보고 매수 - 애플: 2013년 PER 약 10에서 주가 하락 중 약 65달러에 매도한 실패 사례, 장기 보유 시 현재 가치 약 5배라고 회고 - 알파벳, 오토존 등 고가 주식도 주가 자체로 고평가·저평가를 판단할 수 없다고 설명 [출연자 전망] 특정 종목·지수의 1~3개월 가격 방향에 대한 구체적 전망 발언 없음. 장기 투자 원칙 중심의 교육 콘텐츠이며 영상 설명란 및 채널 정보상 발언자는 피터 린치 본인(1994년 녹음)으로, 영상 제작자 Michael Jay는 해설 진행자. [조건/리스크] 사업 펀더멘털 이해, 부채 수준, 업계 변화, 과거 실적 의존 위험을 점검해야 하며 주가 하락만으로 매수하지 말 것을 경고.
다듬은 글
Peter Lynch was one of the greatest investors of all time as a manager of the Magellan fund at fidelity investments from 1997 to 1999 she averaged a 29 percent annual return consistently more than doubling the S&P 500 making it the best performing mutual fund in the world in this 1994 recording Lynch shares some of his investment wisdom that has helped make him and his clients millions in this specific excerpt Lynch shares advice on how to deal with a falling stock at the end of this clip will elaborate on Lynch's points and demonstrate examples of how you can put his advice into practice within your own investment portfolio so sit back and enjoy there's a lot of times people buy on the basis the stock has gone down this much oh you know how much further gonna go down I remember Paul Roy went from 130 to a hundred people said here's this great company great record but ever gets below 100 you know just by every share you know and it didn't get below 100 a lot of people bought on that basis saying look it's got 130 500 it's not 95 what I buy within a year was 18 and there's kind of no dead I mean there's a company was just so overpriced it went down I did the same thing in my thing my first or second year fidelity Kaiser industries had gone from $26 this year to 16 I said how much more can it go it's 16 so I think we bought one of the biggest blocks ever in the New York on the American Stock Exchange of Kaiser industries at 14 I said you know it's bad for 26 to 16 I was looking to go what can I call my mother and said mom you're gonna look at this guy's ministries I mean how much lower can it go it's gone from 26 to 10 while I went to 6 and went to 5 and went to 4 and went to three and I unfortunate em rapidly I would probably be still caddying or working at the stop and shop but I it happened fast it's able to this has compressed that and at 3 I figured out you know there's something very wrong here these Kaiser industries owns 40% of Kaiser steel they own 40% of Kaiser aluminum they own 32% of Kaiser cement they own Kaiser broadcast and then Kai's have sand gravel kinds of Engineers they own Jeep they own business after business and they had no debt now I learned this very early this might be a breakthrough for some people it's very hard to go bankrupt if you don't have any death it's tricky some people can approach that it's a real achievement but they had no debt and the whole company at 3:00 was selling at about 75 million that point it was equal to buying one Boeing 747 I said there's something wrong with his company sign for 75 million I was a little premature at 16 but I said everything's fine and eventually this work out and they what they do is it gave away all their shares to their shareholders they passed out years and kind of cement I passed out chairs in Casa Luna they bounced out the public spheres and Kaiser steel they sold all the other businesses and you got about $50 a share and but if you didn't understand the company if you're just buying on the fact the stock I got from 26 to 16 and then again to 10 what would you do when I went to 9 what would you do when went eight what would you do and went to seven this is the problem that people have is they sell stocks because they didn't know why they bought it then I went down and they don't know what to do now if you flip a coin do you walk around the block you know what do you do psychiatrists they haven't worked so far I've never seen them running and decided the the psychological psychiatry fund I've never seen listed for the with the sec to make it through as a mutual fund so I they haven't seem to help I've tried prayer that hasn't worked the the so if you don't understand the company of this problem when they go down eventually they always come back this one is uh this one doesn't work either people think RCA just about get back to itself 1929 high when General Electric took it over a lot of double nits never came back remember those beauties floppy disks Western Union the list goes on and on people saying it'll come back well it doesn't have to come back here's another one you hear all the time it's $3.00 how much can I lose I had people call me up saying I'm thinking of buying a stock at 3 how much could I lose well again you may need a piece of paper for this but if you point if you and if you put $20,000 in stock at 50 or your neighbor put 20,000 at pool at 50 to this thought and you put $20,000 in at 3 and it goes to 0 you lose exactly the same amount of money everything and people say it's three how much could I lose well if you put a million dollars on it you can lose a million dollars just the fact that start this is the own this may be a reason to research is thon the fact that stock is three down from 100 doesn't mean you should buy it and in fact short-sellers people that really make money in stocks they don't show at Walmart they don't sure at Home Depot they don't show the great companies Johnson Johnson they short stocks down from 80 to seven they'd like to short it at 16 or 22 but they they figured out at 7 that this company is gonna go to 0 they just haven't blown taps in this thing yet it's going to zero and they're selling short 7 they're selling short at 6 at five at four and three and two at one and a quarter and you know what if something short you need a buyer something us to buy the damn thing and you want to who's buying this thing it's these people saying it's three how much lower could it go like a true master of his craft Peter Lynch does an incredible job of conveying his investment knowledge in such a concise and entertaining way well now elaborate on three of the key points that Lynch discussed and how we can apply and incorporate that knowledge within our own investing habits the first key point is simply by what you know and also conversely if you don't know don't buy now at first glance this advice might seem so obvious and simple that it doesn't really add much insight however it's actually a surprisingly common trap for investors to fall into especially new investors who may not have much investment experience by understanding what you own you have a better sense of the value of the company and the potential upside and downside in different scenarios it's only then that you can make a rational evaluation of the potential risks involved with an investment this concept is also referred to by Warren Buffett as investing in your circle of competence your circle of competence being the group or subsection of companies that you know quite well and fully understand well it can be beneficial to increase your circle of competence over time investing outside of that circle of competence can often lead to investment mistakes because you simply don't understand what you're buying Peter Lynch is also an advocate of using your own local knowledge and personal experience which can sometimes help give you an edge as an individual investor I'll give you a couple examples from my investing experience one stock in business that I know fairly is Kroger the largest pure grocery store in the United States I've been shopping at one of their subsidiaries Harris Teeter for most of my life so I've got a pretty good sense of their core business model as well as the Preferences of their average consumer flashback to 2017 though an amazon has just announced their purchase of Whole Foods many investors ended up dumping Kroger's stock as a stock price dropped almost 30 percent in just two days the rationale behind this was that Amazon with now Whole Foods was likely to take more market share as well as compression margins for Kroger however based on my own consumer habits I wasn't planning to now jump over to Whole Foods just because Amazon bought them even after a first wave of price cuts at Whole Foods prices were still generally cheaper at Harris Teeter so in my view this was an overreaction in the stock price and I ended up picking up a fairly large position in Kroger which remains one of my largest stock positions today however if I didn't understand Kroger and their customers I too would probably be quite concerned with Amazon entering into the field with Whole Foods now I would be remiss to give you only a positive example so I'll give you an example of a big mistake I made much earlier into my investment career so this goes all the way back to 2013 and this time deals with a stock of Apple now keep in mind this was when I was just first starting out investing so I really didn't have a great sense of business fundamentals and stock valuation about a year prior in 2012 I bought Apple stocks simply because I just genuinely liked the products I had had several iPods in the past and was now very enamored with my new iPad but in 2013 I saw one of its first declines in iPhone sales revenue and from September 2012 to spring 2013 the stock price of Apple dropped roughly 40 percent now in that winter I remember exactly where I was in the undergraduate library as I was planning to sell my Apple stock at that point the shares were already down roughly 25% off of all-time highs I was concerned that I might lose more if I continued to hold the stock this is ironic because in that same memory I vividly remember seeing and looking around me in the undergraduate library all the students had not only iPhones on the table but also had and were using their Mac laptops so given that I didn't really put two and two together in terms of the insatiable demand their products and also wasn't aware of the fundamental valuations and at the time Apple was trading at a price to earnings ratio of 10 which is an incredible value for the potential growth prospects that Apple had at the time despite all that I ended up selling my shares in Apple split adjusted at around $65 now you can do the math but those shares today would be worth nearly five times more had I just held them for the long term so that gets to a good lesson learned is that if you don't understand the stock you're buying or whatever investment you are buying and the price falls you won't have any metric to evaluate whether the price decline is justified or not this could cause you to sell a stock prematurely to cut losses when in reality market volatility simply cause a stock to become undervalued in the short term on the other hand you can also end up continuing to hold a stock that has fundamental issues you may not be aware of overall if you stick with investing with businesses you understand especially those you have local or specialized knowledge and you'll be much less likely to get into trouble and lose money investing the second key point Lynch discussed is the myth that a stock will come back well over the long run an index like the S&P 500 has historically gone up that isn't a guarantee that all the individual stock components of the index will go up as well many stocks do but some businesses eventually face challenges and never end up recovering going back to our first point you need to understand the fundamentals of the business if you don't when the stock falls you're instead only really hoping that the stock will come back and unfortunately in the long term hope is not an effective strategy so when the price of the stock declines whether this is a stock you own or stock you are watching and potentially might consider owning in the future you should ask yourself some questions is the decline in the stock price justified in relation to the business fundamentals going back to my examples with Kroger and Apple it's possible that price declines may be short-term in nature and potentially over reactions to what would otherwise be stable or improving business performance however for some richly valued stocks trading at high multiples to business fundamentals like earnings cash flow or sales if investors are paying too high a price for an excessively valued stock there's no fundamental reason for the stock to come back to a price it was never justified trading at to begin with this is a risk in investing in some very high valued growth stocks which could potentially see a permanent reduction in valuation multiples the underlying business may still be fine and growing quite quickly but the stock was simply trading too high similar to the polaroid example that Lynch provided another question ask yourself is are you evaluating the business based solely on past performance while many businesses are relatively stable and past trends may be similar to future results looking only at the past can get you into trouble if you miss changing industry trends that will impact the business materially in the future just look at most retail stores with the exception of some big-box and discount retailers many of them have not and will not likely recover to their past Peaks in fact many of them may cease to exist entirely when looking into a potential company to invest we're evaluating a stock price decline I will often check for potential red flags which could signal a deterioration in the business performance going forward overall don't jump into his stock solely because of a price decline under the assumption that will go back up to its previous price level you have to understand the underlying business fundamentals to make a rational assessment on whether or not it's an attractive investment opportunity at the now lower price and finally the third key point that Lynch discussed is a low share price does not mean low risk and on another note a low share price doesn't necessarily mean that a stock is cheap either a stock can have a low share price but also be relatively expensive compared to the actual business fundamentals per share conversely you can also have some stocks which may appear relatively expensive based on their share price like alphabet or autozone with share prices over $1000 each which could actually be achieved by some fundamental metrics like earnings or growth understand that share price alone doesn't tell you any information in relationship to value and is less discussed you don't have any less downside investing in a stock with a low share price 1000 times zero is the same as 1 times 0 and I'll give you a hint they're both 0 a recent example of this might be taking a look at the stock of JC Penney now investors of the past seem a cheap share price of $5 per share might be willing to bet on a turnaround of the struggling retailer applying anchoring bias to the previous alzheimer back in 2007 of $85 per share the stock was already trading down 84% how much lower could it go well the shares recently traded in May of 2024 about 25 cents per share or a loss of 95 percent from that $5 share price if anything seen a particularly low share price is likely a warning sign to look into the business further and many times these stocks are better off avoided altogether so those were just three key pieces of wisdom from Peter Lynch and there's so much more out there but hopefully that helps give you a little more perspective on the thought process and what you should do to handle dealing with a falling stock price if you like more content like this analyzing videos from great investors let me know by leaving a like on this video and if you're new here consider subscribing to get access to more content like this in the future until next time thank you so much for watching my name is Michael and I will see you in the next video
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