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what the heck happened to the market on a monday and how should we plan for today tuesday are there stocks we should buy are there stocks we should sell it's the georgia runoff election oh my gosh hello everyone meet kevin here we have had some volatility to start off of the year benchmarks on monday were down two percent it was the worst decline to the start of a year that we have seen since 2016.
amazon and apple down two percent tesla up four percent but volatility surged to the highest point since right before the election the dollar went down golden treasuries went up 85 of the s p was read cruise lines got hit hard apple had its worst day since november and folks whoa what the heck is going on is this all because of the georgia election or why the heck is this going on what are the reasons why the market is so volatile to start off 2021 and what should we do what kind of stock should we buy or potentially sell regarding this election in georgia let's talk quick reminder that if you want to join me in daily live streams where i talk about the market and my move there is a coupon code that does expire on january 8th and the super cool thing about that coupon code is that you can also use it in the bundles that are now available on the website link down below so you get the best pricing if you bundle up with these options on the webpage there all right folks now let's get right into what the heck is going on so first things first concern about kovit is actually back again it's back in vogue even though we thought that well kovid is not such a concern for the markets anymore because of the vaccine yeah it doesn't help that boris johnson reimposed lockdown on monday saying there's more that needs to be done to bring this new coveted variant under control this is the third lockdown that boris johnson has done and he said quote this means the government is once again instructing you to stay home well we know that wouldn't work in america but it's a sign of bad things to come with this new variant and we are still unclear if this new variant is actually going to respond well to the vaccines that exist there were some fake news stories circulating i had actually talked about one of them accidentally and i retracted that but there were some fake news articles circulating that all right we've got good evidence that uh modernised vaccine can actually combat this variant with the same efficacy but we don't have any of that right now all of it is just fake news and fake fugazi so unfortunately we are still waiting to see if these vaccines are going to be just as effective against the new variant obviously when that date comes we found out find out this information it will be very important news but anyway boris johnson says that this variant is much more difficult to contain and hospitals are under much more pressure than any time before the pandemic and therefore a national lockdown is required this immediately hurt things like oil it immediately the dollar actually fell as well as it kind of like oh well covets already the new covet variant's been spotted in the united states as well the dow transports index crossed a bearish point in the market there's basically a 50-day moving average and any time the dow transport dips below the 50.
it's seen as a bearish sign for well let's just say the last time it happened was when wuhan locked down okay so there's the bottom line for you when covet gets bad that gets bad or it could be sometimes it's seen as a leading indicator who knows though we'll see because remember wuhan did lock down before february so it's like oh yeah that's not good uh anyway uh the united kingdom is also warning that we could see high we could see multiple years of a high covet mortality because of this and that's not just the united kingdom either it'll end up being this true in the united states as well because not everyone's going to get vaccinated so there's a lot of bad news on the covet front when we look at you know the united states out of 15.4 million coveted vaccines delivered only 4.5 million have actually been administered boris johnson is saying to beat the pandemic in the united kingdom where they've got like a 69 million population they need to vaccinate two million people every single week to end the pandemic well we we right now in the last four weeks are at a rate of about one million per and we have five times the population which if we wanted to be at the level of boris johnson to end the pandemic we would we would have to 10x our vaccine administration so all of a sudden i think that maybe maybe and this could be why some of the cruise lines started selling off too is we start realizing like crap we got the vaccines but this ain't gonna be over in q1 it ain't gonna be over in q2 maybe it'll be over in q4 maybe but that's only if we really ramp up uh like we need to 10x the vaccine administration so that's that's a big issue that's hurting and dampening a little bit of the recovery place here kinda sucks number two the chief investment strategist at oppenheimer said that the runoff elections tomorrow could be putting substantial or not tomorrow today it could be putting substantial strain and pressure on the market and could lead to get this a six to ten percent off or sell-off if democrats sweep and right now democrats are in the lead so if you're looking at this not from a political point of view but just from a stock market point of view if democrats win which right now they're they're in the lead we've even got betting odds that show democrats are in the lead by you know a couple percent of points one 1.2 ish and maybe 1.8 somewhere around there uh well then that's a potential sign that uh oops we might see a little bit of a dip in the market here at least this is according to oppenheimer and you know i think a lot of people believe that there's going to be a dip in the market if democrats sweep we'll talk more about that in just a moment but on top of this you've got the national guard that's being deployed on wednesday as the mayor of dc is requesting up to 600 national guard troops to help prevent any kind of possible violence on wednesday after the election certification so you've kind of got a couple here um you know uncertain uh uncertainties and then generally the stock market does not like uncertainty we tend to see the vix the volatility index go up when right before elections we see that as well when protests happen associated with elections coming uh if if they're protests alone we usually don't see volatility go up it's kind of weird but anyway right now these are big issues the outcome of the georgia election is going to end up being a big issue and we'll talk stock recommendations in just a moment on that the third thing that's also going on is there are have uh really helped in my opinion push bitcoin's insane rally recently which has been absolutely incredible for bitcoin congratulations if you invest in bitcoin uh and this is partially due to the fact that a lot of folks do not trust the government's data on inflation and they might be totally right not to trust it you know the government is saying hey you know we've barely got any inflation maybe we'll see some inflation in march and april when we compare march and april 2021 to march and april 2020 but uh you know i think a lot of people are saying yeah we don't believe your cpi we don't believe your pce your personnel consumption expenditures we don't care about that consumer price index old news we don't care about those things and i get it because there are a lot of things when we look around we just see prices going up up and up uh and we certainly see mr jerome powell going so we can't be blamed for thinking that expectations for inflation are not only high but they are rightfully high can't be blamed for that at all also doesn't help that you've got the uh federal reserve president of the bank of chicago charles evans saying that u.s banks and the federal reserve shouldn't be shy of just letting inflation run let it run over even two and a half percent in the long run just to get that average up yeah that those kinds of things make people a little bit nervous and then you see bitcoin go up now bitcoin has sold off a little bit uh just uh you know later in the day on monday i think we got to like 34 800 or something incredible it's back to about 33 but bitcoin is so volatile it's really hard to uh uh to quote bitcoin prices because the next day it's at the moon uh anyway uh there are obviously some huge stakes for the georgia election again we'll talk more about those as well but you combine the georgia election also now with high-ish valuations right it doesn't help that on the bloomberg terminal there are now headlines bouncing around going is this the start dot dot and then they talk about the market crash aka now on the bloomberg terminal they're introducing the youtube clickbait uh anyway the the market uh based on the bloomberg terminals uh last report here they stated that what they like to do is they look at the market on a 200-day moving average at least this one analyst and so they they take the market the s p 500 draw the 200-day moving average and they're like oh yeah usually the 200-day moving average is here and we trade you know up and down a little bit close to it well we're doing we're like going parabolic off the 200-day moving average so that causes some some potential potential concerns especially when you've got the s ps forward price to earnings ratio that's about 21.1 five year average around 17.6 stamps really lower you've got the nasdaq trading about 28.8 with a five-year average of 20.4 like way higher way way higher and then even at apple you've got twice the historical p e ratio uh going forward for apple it's really incredible so valuations are definitely extended but then again hey you know just to make a counter argument here we we we realized as well that 25 to 30 of all the money that exists in the world today was created in 2020 during the pandemic which that's nuts to say and in some sense you kind of can't be blamed for wondering well i mean is that why p e ratios are up our p e ratio is just up 30 35 uh and then you wonder well what about like uh the nasdaq why would p e ratios be up substantially more for example uh the nasdaq well you know some argue that pa ratios are high in the nasdaq because you get this higher proportion of tech companies that are more likely to to reinvest their money rather than take it as earnings and so you show companies that are actually losing money that are in like the nasdaq or even the s p 500 and because they show less earnings they actually but they have high prices they totally want p e ratios because it's like wait a minute wait a minute negative earnings and high valuation that's that's bad for your p e ratio you know that's how you create infinite p e ratios anyway so so that's all the stuff that's going on right now we're going to talk about action steps here and cannabis and all that good stuff in just a moment but this is this is the stuff that's going on we got to think about these things so we've got this covered resurgence we've got concerns about this new variant we still don't have answers about this we thought we would get answers on this other that we just got some fake news stories that were circulating i want to make that very clear in this video because i pride myself on doing whatever i can to try to deliver the truest possible news uh and so uh you know i if if i say something wrong i will do whatever i can to correct that as soon as possible i don't feel bad about making a mistake i regret making a mistake but i can't feel bad about it because we all do it so but anyway we do we do not just to be clear we do not know how the new vaccines will react to the new coveted variant yet uh so that's a concern and obviously uh covert exploding is a concern the uk locking down it's a concern it's always been a concern uh the runoff elections big concern democrats sweep six to ten percent sell-off of the s p by oppenheimer that's a big statement that's like circuit breaker day yeah i i don't think it's gonna be that extreme but we'll talk here in a moment inflation expectations totally makes sense high inflation that's inflation even though technically assets fare well when there's high inflation you don't want to be sitting in stocks uh you know at relatively high valuations which is another problem uh when all of a sudden you get a surge of inflation especially when people are at relatively high levels of margin because now their margin rates go up if interest rates go up and boom what happens well all of a sudden people got to sell their stocks to pay their margin and cover the margin it's a potential disaster so you've got some bad bad juju juju on on kind of the the horizon here so now we got to talk about moves what are we going to do moves wise all right so uh let's go ahead and uh and break this down so what happens if republicans win so if republicans are they only need to win one senate seat there are two seats up for grabs both are currently republican held and if republicans just maintained one of those seats just one of them then republicans control maintain control of the senate you got mitch mcconnell in the senate he can pretty much continue to block any larger democratic priorities now technically democrats even if they sweep they're only going to have 50 to 51 votes which isn't enough to get most bills done you need 60 votes in the senate to get most bills done unless they change the rules which they could change the rules it's called the nuclear option you could look that up but uh generally with 51 votes you can confirm appointees like judicial appointees or nominees you can confirm cabinet picks and you could pass certain bills could you do a big fat freaking stimulus package with debt relief for students and and uh universal basic income yeah probably there's probably a way you could get that there's slam that through with 51 votes but but yeah most of the that could potentially burn some bridges for future bipartisanship in other deals though and democrats are going to need that so it's not like it's a slam dunk clear you know majority here but it's it's powerful it it is very meaningful so let's start here if republicans win just one senate seat in in georgia uh i'm i'm gonna hold firm on my strategy which right now my strategy is pay down margin so i can find a little bit of uh pain in the market and and then i can buy because right now i'm at about 21ish percent margin i like being around 20 i want to pay this down though because that way if i can pay my margin down to about 10 margin if there's a market drop in the future i could take that extra 10 margin and boom i could go shopping again or i just keep paying down my margin if no opportunity comes up guess what i do because i don't keep money in savings i put it all into the market i go pay my taxes to take that out of the margin and then work to pay off the margin uh yes and i'm serious about that i do i hate keeping money sitting around in a bank account it goes into the stock market anyway so uh i'll probably stay the course here now it is possible it is and be warned here it is possible that if republicans maintain control it is possible we will see some form of an ev sell-off because it's p there is a potential that we're not going to see as many ev priorities uh get pushed through you know for example we might not see the biden new deal which which biden differentiates from the green new deal but some people say is the same thing as the green new deal just with a biden label on it whatever the point is biden wants a lot of green infrastructure we already got a ton of green items by the way in the last coveted bill last coved bill has got not only an extension of solar tax credits but it's got studying uh vehicle to grid power that is in the uh the last covet bill i mean the energy related things in here the tax credits um you know carbon offset i mean there's there's a lot of stuff in this uh so i think stuff like that can still come through but we might not see the scale that we would with the democratic major majority so it's possible some of the lofty ev names uh tesla uh maybe even the the switchback electrics the blink maybe those sell off a little bit as they potentially see a mitch mcconnell standing in the way of a real full expansion of ev uh and energy infrastructure it could also end up hitting stocks like enphase or neo but otherwise i i expect that if on january 5th republicans win and and january 6 ends up pretty nonchalant just quiet like no major violence no martial law or whatever as long as we don't get anything crazy like that okay the day after my expectation is stocks could be volatile for 24 to 48 hours but we might just go back to the market that we saw in december not november november we had a market that was very like parabolic no uh september sorry december was a little bit more like okay that's up that's down that's up that's it it was a very teeter-tottery in december anyway now the big one okay so so what do we do if democrats win all right so this is where we have to we have to take out the whiteboard because there there are going to be some stocks that are going to uh be a very very quick target i think for traders and you have to keep you know remember that when people trade into a stock heavily you have to be really particularly careful because traders don't stay around forever they can run in really fast and and you don't really want to be like the last one in because when the traders leave you kind of get hold bagging it or you get you get stuck holding the bag right uh so it's just something to keep in mind but uh okay so what are some stocks that if democrats win that we expect traders to do a little bit of jumping in on well first thing uh i would say you've got your your typical cannabis stocks are probably going to move because if democrats have a majority if they have the control of um kali if democrats have control of the house the senate and the presidency it would not shock me at all to see cannabis stocks move pretty fast because think about it you're you finally since 2008 you will have your first opportunity as as congress to actually get cannabis legalized potentially or decriminalized at least on a federal level and uh they're gonna be they're gonna be some stocks that we really wanna pay attention to for this here so uh one of the first ones is uh canopy growth company that's one that has done very very well after the biden election acb is another one and then you do have this one this is a smaller company i particularly like this company out of all of them it's kind of been a middle performer out of the two stocks that i just mentioned here but you know it's also an over-the-counter traded stock but you know i if they can get their second location up and running this could be a big company it depends how their second location goes and i know they're working on their second location i'm a little skeptical about not only the legalization aspect of it but if democrats win that does pave the way for it but i want to see how their second location goes but if it looks like dems are gonna win i wouldn't be surprised to see some substantial green over here this is uh you'll probably have to trade this one at like a td ameritrade or something pln hf this is a planet 13.
it's kind of like a vegas uh like a vacation it feels it feels like almost like you go down to vegas you go to the strip and now we got to go to planet 13 and look at the menagerie of uh marijuana we could choose from but hey incredible sales you gotta you gotta give them that the reputation they have the reviews they have the sales they have the products they have the customer service they have i gotta give them a thumbs up and i let's just say usually i recommend investing in products you understand and use and i do not fit into this bunch but uh these could be potentially interesting i certainly expect our favorites to continue to do well and i definitely think our chinese stocks are going to do pretty dang well as uh well if we get a dem sweep because we're going to get less in my opinion resistance from republicans to being maybe more i don't want to say soft on china but more like let me put it this way i think biden is going to be a lot more capable of getting a deal done with the chinese leadership in the communist party in china than trump is because trump likes to you know we will fight china and they will pay and that's fine they're just different stances not taken aside just different stances and so uh and tesla's a big player in china too so i do think all of these guys uh would do pretty well alibaba i'm cautious on that one i've never seen how these big anti-trust lawsuits go in china i get a little nervous when i hear that i i like my little my little neo and my little ex spin you know these companies that just they stay out of the uh the spotlight of the the ccp okay in fact neo uh uses uh the manufacturing facility at jac which is half owned by the ccp so maybe that's like uh brownie points who knows i have no freaking idea i will tell you i'm a little clueless about china uh big play another big play here okay and face and face really really big uh eevee or not eevee it's um solar play micro inverters play it's uh it's probably more of a micro inverters play for solar it's really a competitor to tesla energy you've got battery technology phenomenal for house batteries really good competitor to tesla solar so that's why i like to have both of these now another thing to keep in mind like these these might be good but you're going to have some issue stocks as well and what's going to hurt in my opinion if democrats end up sweeping it's pretty much uh tech anything that i didn't mention here like notice i'm not putting tesla on my group but i think tank tech probably gonna get spanked apple amazon etsy peloton wayfair uh all of these typical retail stocks and not like recovery retail i mean like online retail the dropbox the dock you signed the ebay uh i said xp uh etsy expi i don't know i don't know how housing would get affected that's that's a little bit of a stretch for like an expi or redfin determination i mean they could potentially sell off as well because you're going to have those fears about a potentially higher corporate tax rate lemonade could get spanked you know some of these higher valuation companies could really heart under uh under this threat so tech anything i'm going to put hv so high value i think is going to get hurt now i do think that a lot of the hurt is going to be limited to what i'm kind of calling a short-term panic and a short-term panic would be like oh my gosh democrats swept i can't believe that happened sell everything and and then people just like get all my money out of the market and then you're going to get a lot about all right maybe we overreacted we could start buying in again i think we're going to see some of that so my strategy if dems do sweep is not to sell anything but i might go on a little bit of a shopping spree depending on how badly some things get hurt it's going to be hard to say how long a potential sell-off is going to last because i think it's going to take a while for people to realize oh my gosh we haven't had democrat control like this since 2008 what does this mean what does this mean what does it mean the easy ones the like obvious the the dull ones it's like cannabis ev's energy okay like my five-year-old could figure that out uh these are just my my favorite ish except for the cannabis i've never an animal the only one i've analyzed is planet 13.
if you want my analysis on planet 13 which i did invest some money into you could uh google meet kevin planet13 but i haven't analyzed the other ones i have analyzed uh these guys though so uh but yeah yeah that the black part there that's the easy part i just want to give you the ticker symbols but the sell-off in tech and the high value there could be an opportunity to just say hey pick a basket of all the tech and if it sells off 20 shop shop shop shop even if it takes a little bit of time for us to get back to these prior levels with some higher taxation or which is really just i think personally i think the higher taxation let me just say this i think it's a little bit of an overblown risk i don't think democrats are going to immediately all right we got power let's raise taxes hey we got to get a freaking recovery done first joe biden's not gonna promise two thousand dollar stimulus checks and then raise taxes right away because that would be counterintuitive it's like you're giving to take if that would make no sense i i think higher taxes are really uh maybe a second term or maybe second half of the first term so two years out issue uh and i think the stock market might have more of a sell-off in the future if that time came but for this i think we're gonna have more of a panic blip a lot of volatility the vix will shoot up we'll have a sell-off uh potentially maybe not you know this market has been so resilient it's just blown through things that i thought would have been a sell-off and nothing happens and if nothing happens then i won't buy then i'll stick with my republican scenario but in terms of nothing happens i'll just keep paying off margin until something finally does happen but if we do get a nice sell-off and by nice sell-off i mean like 10 declines in some of these names uh the tax the high value i'll go shopping in those but now the problem with the ev and the cannabis stocks is i think we're gonna have to be pretty dang fast to get into these if we're trying to play the election result and by the time the election result comes around the uh you know the stock market might be closed until uh until wednesday morning so these are some of my thoughts these are my play sharing the video make sure to check out those courses right now now is a perfect time because the eighth is around the corner folks it is already the fifth the eighth is around the corner use that coupon code it will expire on the eighth use that coupon code i've already extended it once and that's it uh to check out those bundle code]
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