저자: Meet Kevin · 외국인
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오늘은 10월 30일 금요일이며, 이란과의 합의는 아직 이뤄지지 않았다. 발표자는 합의가 없는 날이 길어질수록 유가가 빠르게 오르고, 다가오는 선거에서 공화당에 불리하게 작용할 수 있다고 본다. 금은 하루 3% 하락해 3,900달러까지 밀렸고, 브렌트유는 117달러 부근에서 버티고 있다. 전쟁이 재개되면 브렌트유가 122달러 고점을 넘어 140달러까지 갈 수 있다는 것이 월가의 우려다. 골드만삭스 등은 홍해와 호르무즈 해협에 대한 후티 반군과 이란 대리세력의 위협을 가격에 반영하고 있으며, 이란 측 고속정이 유조선에 자기 기뢰를 부착하는 공격도 보고되었다. 기본 전망은 합의를 전제로 하지만, 전쟁이 격화되면 인플레이션, 금리 상승, AI 기업의 자금조달 부담이 커진다는 것이다. 민주당 상원의원 크리스 머피는 장기적이고 참혹한 확전 가능성을 경고했다. 발표자는 실제 공격이 에너지 인프라로 번질 경우 유가가 140달러에 이를 수 있다고 보며, 선거 전 합의 확률을 약 70%, 선거 이후에는 30% 수준으로 낮게 본다. 이유는 합의가 없는 날이 늘어날수록 양측의 교착이 굳어지고, 선거가 끝나면 협상 동기가 약해지기 때문이다. 카타르와 JD 밴스 등의 외교적 움직임도 소개되었으나, 농축 우라늄 처리 문제 등 쟁점이 남아 있어 전망은 불투명하다. 또한 유가 충격이 성장보다 물가를 더 자극하고 있다는 분석도 함께 제시되었다. 영상에는 채널 및 유료 서비스 광고가 포함되어 있으며, 이는 투자 권유가 아닌 방송 내 홍보 내용이다.
다듬은 글
Today is Friday, October 30. There is still no deal with Iran, and Elon Musk is making everyone worry about a possible Democratic victory in the election and how bad it will be. This is his point of view, but this is what reality looks like. Every day without a deal with Iran is another day that Republicans will suffer a bigger defeat in the upcoming elections due to the rapid rise in oil prices; experts are already saying that we could reach price levels not seen since 2007.
It seems that there is no longer a safe place , even gold is falling—minus 3% per day to $3,900, while Brent crude oil is holding at $117. By the way, the price of oil has not exceeded $122 since the beginning of the Russian- Ukrainian conflict. So if we go back 5 years , about 4 and a half years, we see a peak for Brent around 122.
If we break through that mark, which Wall Street believes will happen if war resumes—and this partly explains the stock market drop—oil prices could reach $140 a barrel. This means we will have to look at the charts for the period since March 2008 , when oil prices reached a high of $143 per barrel.
This creates a lot of potential problems, so it is worth discussing not only the situation with goods, in particular oil, but also possible scenarios for the development of events in the context of war, after which we will briefly update the data on the deal. So, here's what the experts say. We documented this in the Meet Kevin app.
Anyway, I've already talked a lot about the deal, and we'll go into it in detail, but Goldman Sachs, that is, Wall Street representatives, are already pricing in rising geopolitical risks. This is because our alternative routes to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, such as the East- West Pipeline or trucking in the region, have been threatened by the Houthis, limiting our ability to export oil from the Persian Gulf due to the bilateral conflict.
One of them affects the Red Sea in the west, and the other affects the Strait of Hormuz in the east. Both of these issues are fueling the oil markup we are seeing, and the United States has so far deliberately chosen a strategy of not responding to the attacks. So, we have speedboats. Some of them, as you can see in this video released by Iranian proxies in X, are speedboats attaching magnetic mines to the sides of cargo and oil ships, and you can see smoke rising from the attacked ships.
There are numerous videos and photos of ships being attacked, even images of vessels with already exploded mines attached to them. Here is an example of a hole in the side of a ship. Here is an example of a possible mine that has not yet exploded. Magnetic mines are fairly large devices that have magnetic mounts on the sides to attach to the hull of a ship, so the idea is that you can carry them on a speedboat, just prop them up—and that's it .
Now you have attached a mine, usually filled with a plastic explosive like C4 , to sink part of the ship, sinking it and increasing the pressure on the global economy. Iran argues that if they can increase the pain for the global economy, they will have a better chance at negotiations. That's why we see Goldman and other analysts saying, "Hey, oil prices are going up, and that's not good, that's unfortunate." So how do we get to $140 a barrel?
Well, this is where things get a little confusing. Here you see that an oil shortage of 5 million barrels per day will push Brent crude to $140 by 2027 . Goldman's baseline forecast is that the price will fall to the mid-70s by the end of 2027 . So they are essentially saying, "We think a deal will be reached, but if not, and the war escalates, oil will skyrocket even higher by the end of 2027." This, of course, raises the risks of prolonged inflation, which means higher interest rates, rising inflation expectations, and increased financial risks for AI companies.
So now we have a two-pronged problem: rising oil prices hurt consumers, and rising financing costs and credit default swaps hurt AI companies, which are desperately funding AI expansion to stay ahead of the competition. All of this affects the underlying economy. Therefore, resolving this conflict is absolutely critical.
So, now there are fears that a large-scale and prolonged, almost pointless war against Iran will begin. At least that's what Democrats are saying, who have reportedly seen some of the war plans. For example, Mr. Murphy will now express his point of view. At one of these briefings, we had the opportunity to discuss in quite some detail what the war plan would be.
If we resume military operations, you've already heard that it will be short-term. Yes. plan. I'll just say this. Their plan is crazy. It will lead to a devastating escalation and the likely destruction of our commitment to the rule of law. Can you say more? I mean, there are open messages about what we might plan and what civilian targets we might target.
I think the plan they have... They were asked by the president to develop such a plan . Whether they believe it will work, I don't know. But the plan they have developed, in my opinion, will lead to a prolongation and escalation of this war, which will be devastating for our security. So, there is a point of view from a Democratic senator that suggests that this does not bode well .
In other words, his point is that this short epic fury will eventually turn the region into a protracted conflict . This is not my opinion, but I'm not a senator, right? So, in fairness, we have to give him his due. And Wall Street seems to agree that high oil prices are very likely if we go back to war.
And to some extent, that's what the stock market is now starting to take into account, this fear that we're really about to get back into a serious, protracted conflict. In fact, Goldman here assumes that the outcomes are binary. Clean point hits mean selling on the news. A random strike on one of the narrow points , such as the Bab el-Mandeb Strait on the other hand, seriously limits the global balance.
So, this is a big problem. Now my opinion: I believe that if we go back to strikes, we will see more coastal cleanup. I don't really think there is any real intention to go to full-scale war again . Of course, then you get strikes back, because if we go back to attacking tankers, it is possible that our bases in the region will be attacked, and this is a risk for our troops and our allies.
And this is exactly what Al Jazeera is talking about —how our bases have started preparing for war again. Look at this. Washington is preparing for war while keeping the diplomatic channel open. The Wall Street Journal reported that the US has strengthened air defenses and ammunition stocks in the region, and has also withdrawn some troops from bases vulnerable to Iranian retaliation.
In other words, there are very real preparations underway for a long war. To be fair, this is exactly what you would do if you were trying to show your seriousness in negotiations. And that's exactly what both sides are doing. The Iranians are trying to gain leverage by bombing tankers. The United States is trying to keep calm until the elections , accepting these strikes, but at the same time demonstrating: here is our aircraft carrier, here is our new expeditionary force, here are the evacuated troops, and here are the new defensive munitions.
We are ready and we will blow you to smithereens. That's the thesis, and the whole idea is that you don't know what Donald Trump has up his sleeve . It's like judo. Judo—no, I have a big bomb. Judo—no, no, I have a gun. Therefore. So let's look at this research a little more. I would like to remind you that yesterday was the expiration date of the coupon for Reinvest One.
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So if you haven't considered it yet, go to reinvest1.com and check it out. OK. So, back to Al Jazeera, we see that this, um, several American cargo planes have arrived at bases in Israel, and there are also more planes headed to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Um, so, you know, obviously there's an escalation of training going on.
At the same time, diplomacy has apparently not slowed down. We have seen reports that J.D. Vance sent a letter to the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council. But it grew from a simple letter to a potential in-person meeting with the Iranians. So, J.D. Vance is willing to meet with the Iranians in person to sort this out and prevent strikes.
The Qataris, by the way, have also resumed their attempts. In fact, there are reports now that the Qataris, I'm not sure if this is in this material, um, the Qataris have returned to Tehran. Yes, there it is. On Friday, Qatari mediators returned to Tehran for talks coordinated with the United States.
This is the second time the Qataris have traveled to Tehran: once on Monday, then the Iranian president went to Moscow on Tuesday, and now the Qataris are back in the capital, um, mind you, the meeting on Monday was between Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar. Um, and today it seems like it's just the Qataris there, but the point is that everyone is trying to send a signal, all the allies in the region, to Tehran: you have to make a deal.
Like, please make a deal. And so, of course, the question arises: “Okay, what stage are we at with the potential deal? And where will the consequences be? “Well, again, here we can go back to what the authorities say. Let's continue to look at some of this. So, um, here we can point out that, um, let's see .
WTI. Okay, the supreme leader earlier this week called for, you know, an end to the situation they're in right now, which essentially means, "Hey, look, we're in this together. Are we at war or not? The golden mean ? This needs to change. Either we go to war or we don't. “Many took this as an optimistic signal that the supreme leader had finally realized: this is not going anywhere, and we must stop it.
However, many government officials are panicking. So, Goldman is panicking. Morgan Stanley and UBS say there are no clear signs of a new offensive. But, uh, let's be honest. There are many signs that a new offensive is being prepared. Well, everyone is preparing for the attack now. So, uh, UBS must have gone a little crazy .
And I think that's why JP Morgan says that the biggest risk right now is not just a return to war, but something like what Chris Murphy is talking about : we start attacking real energy infrastructure, desalination plants, oil and gas refineries, and Iran eventually does the same. Iran responds: “Okay, we will go ahead and hit even more of your Saudi targets.
We will encourage the Houthis to attack more of your alternative pipelines. “And that’s how the price will reach $140 per barrel due to mutual attacks on real energy infrastructure. RBC states: “Look, yes, we will probably see an escalation, but the real question is, what kind of ‘get it done’ campaign is this?
You know, a lot of people are like, just drop a nuclear bomb on them and they'll stop, but then we'll go back to a nuclear war that we haven't seen in over 80 years. I mean, nuclear war is almost ancient history. It would be nice if it became ancient history. But, be that as it may , Citi reports that there is a 60% probability that flows through the Strait of Hormuz will normalize by the end of the year.
This is very interesting because, you know , I mentioned that I think there's a 70% chance of a deal being done by Election Day and only about 30% after that. Many people have asked me, "Kevin, why , why are these odds, why do it seem like your odds are upside down, that they're actually going down over time, right?" So, initially I said that I think there is a 90% chance of a deal before the Fed meeting.
That is, the morning of the 28th. Then this probability drops to 70% until the elections themselves. And after the elections, I think we'll drop to 30%. Many people asked me: " Kevin, why?" Why is it logical that your chances drop so much? Shouldn't it be the other way around, that the more time passes, the more likely we are to make a deal?" So, to explain this—I'm just explaining this so that people understand that I'm not just saying this, because I see the logic in it .
These 90% here, in my opinion, would give the Republicans and Trump the greatest benefit . So, that would be the biggest advantage for Republicans. This means that they are most motivated to make a deal now , because they can get as many votes as possible before the election. If they lose the election, they won't care anymore.
And it's also a sign that there is some kind of impasse that they can't overcome. The fact is that every day without a deal means that the chances of one actually decrease. With each passing day, an agreement becomes less, not more, likely, unfortunately, because it means that each side is on its own.
That's the problem. That's why I said 90 %, which turned out to be a mistake on the day of the Fed meeting. 70% before the elections. I only lowered the forecast by 20%. So I still think it could happen this weekend. This could happen on Monday. The sooner this happens, the better for Republicans. This is better for Elon.
It's better for Trump , no matter what. Democrats should hope there is no deal. But, you know, honestly, with current oil prices, they'll probably be fine. And after the elections, the motivation to make a deal drops sharply. You can just as well continue the blockade forever, because Donald Trump no longer benefits from it.
The elections are over. Republicans will already be at a loss. This is obviously my thesis. Now look at this. Citi claims that the oil shock is hitting inflation, not growth. Oil has increased by 60% since February, jet fuel by 100%, diesel by 110%. Global inflation this year is 3.4%, compared to 2.8% last year.
Global growth is still strong. And, unfortunately, this is exactly what the Fed has to deal with. They must contend with rising inflation expectations. And this becomes a real problem, because it is not very easy to deal with. This is something that ultimately requires a lot of...how should I put it?
Lots of convincing action from the Federal Reserve that we will stop at nothing to get inflation under control. Because otherwise people will say, "Hey, inflation is only going to go up. Let's just buy. Buy. Buy. Buy. Buy ." That's why costs remain relatively high. Well, everything is fine. Meanwhile, I keep getting notifications from Stripe.
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So, Rabobank's working hypothesis is the opposite. The US-led coalition is striking Iran and the Houthis. You see, it's the Houthis. I actually suspected this too, that in the end they would choose Biden's strategy and the conflict would expand. That is, they will not only clear Hormuz and the coast, but will also take on the Houthis and deal with them.
But the problem is that then the Iranians will strike the Gulf countries and their infrastructure, and the fighting will continue until the first quarter. The problem is also that 12% of the world's oil refining capacity has already been disabled due to Iran and Ukraine combined . So diesel and all other fuels will remain expensive for some time to come .
In addition, the latest mediation proposals regarding Iran's seven conditions were rejected, as reported by the Iranians themselves. Trump is canceling his weekend rallies , with the exception, it seems, of Daytona. I don't think he wants to fly anywhere. I think their PR is that it stays in Florida because CENTCOM is located there.
They seem to be in Tampa, and that's just a step for Trump. And Hartnett, I'll look at it now, believes that the time to open short positions in oil will come in the first half of 2027 . In other words, the next three or four months will be bad—that's what they're saying. Now, regarding the probability of reaching the price of $140—some are currently predicting about 20%, and that's quite serious.
Why are we considering a 20 percent probability of the price rising to $140 per barrel? Because that's when we'll be on the verge of a situation where, "Oh my God, this is going to cause unemployment." "This will lead to a recession." This is not good. By the way, on Monday the Houthis directly mentioned the pumping stations of the East-West oil pipeline in Saudi Arabia.
This is very bad. Well, the more you talk about those pumping stations, the more our ability to get the blocked oil out of the Persian Gulf is destroyed. Oil is a fungible resource, which essentially means that when we lose one barrel of oil, for example in China, that means one less barrel compensates or lowers prices in the United States.
This is all one world economy. Now about the conditions: obviously there are seven conditions that we have heard about before. Some of them include lifting sanctions, ending the blockade, guarantees to stop strikes, and withdrawing troops from the region. I'm adding this from myself since it's been discussed before.
Unfreezing Iranian assets , and then essentially allowing them to enrich uranium. I believe it's all seven. They didn't mention the withdrawal of troops and the nuclear program, but I assume those are the other points. The problem is, while J.D. Vance doesn't want this to be another never-ending war, it really looks like that's what it's going to be unless they can make a deal this weekend.
I hope we can reach an agreement by Tuesday . But it doesn't look good, and that's why a lot of people are nervous right now. Even the Financial Times reports that Iran attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz with magnetic mines. These are the same ones we showed in the images. Iranians on a small speedboat attacked a tanker in the Strait of Hormuz by attaching magnetic mines.
This is probably the first case of this kind since 2019. Remember, just recently they used parachute-dropped sea mines from MLRS to mine the Strait of Hormuz. This was when we were still following the "tanker for tanker" strategy. The people on the boat attached two explosive devices to the hull just above the waterline, which detonated and caused a fire in the engine room.
Such explosive devices are called magnetic mines because of the clams that cling to rocks on the coast. Three maritime security directors told the FT that this was the first such incident since 2019, when Japanese and Norwegian vessels were attacked in the Gulf of Oman. Well, tensions between Iran and the West are high.
Oh yeah, here are some close-up shots of this image. Wow. Oh yeah, look at those close-up shots. Very interesting. Oh, this is actually, this image is from 2019. We've seen previous images that look more like larger black, uh, more rounded ones that have what look like handles on them. Uh, that's probably what we're dealing with right now.
So, as for the Financial Times, the publication reports that the Qatari mediators, here they are, returning to Tehran with one last attempt before the midterm elections. And this is the second trip in a week. But a significant part of the problem, the residual problem, comes down to the fate of those 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium.
Vladimir Putin offered to take this highly enriched uranium, to which Donald Trump, of course, replied, "Oh, no way." Trump wants the Iranians to give up those 440 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, that's about 1,000 pounds. Donald Trump calls it "nuclear dust." There are rumors, and here's what I think will happen.
I think if they come to an agreement, they will eventually agree to dilute this highly enriched uranium, where you essentially mix it with less enriched uranium , so you go from, say, 60% enrichment to 20%, and then keep it under IAEA supervision. And, in essence, you are restoring weapons inspections and nuclear inspections in the region.
If that happens, great. But in the meantime, it is clear that the markets are very nervous about the fact that the chances of a deal are melting away with each passing day. And this is probably why we are seeing such a market reaction. Again, Brent is down 2.37%, gold is down 3%, Treasury yields are down a bit , but we are still at a high of 4.95 .
Yes, we are below the 3.27 peak we talked about, but this is still a painful time for the stock market, and it is in line with what we usually see before an election anyway. There is usually a lot of fear, uncertainty, and doubt before elections. It just so happened that it coincided with this Iranian disaster at the same time.
In any case, be sure to join us at reinvest1.com. Oh , another notification. Of course, someone is trying to call me, so the connection is interrupted. That's it. Yes, welcome aboard. That was a minute and a half ago. At 9:36 the payment went through. Ha? Welcome aboard. In any case, visit reinvest1.com to learn more about what we offer there.
This whole page of the site is already there, and I think it's pretty good. If you have any questions, you can always email us . Write to us on the website. If you liked this video, watch this. I think you'll like it. Why not advertise these things you told us about here? I don't think anyone else knows about this.
We'll try some advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, dude. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin Paffrath, financial analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. It's always nice to hear your opinion.
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