저자: Meet Kevin · 외국인
요약 보기
유튜버 케빈 프라스가 트럼프 대통령의 이스라엘 원조 종료 발언, 사우디·카타르 중재팀이 전한 이란과의 새 양해각서 소식, 유가와 나스닥의 급락을 정리한 영상이다. 영상은 유가가 지난 5일간 117달러에서 102달러로 떨어졌고, 나스닥 100이 최근 250거래일 중 처음으로 표준편차 마이너스 1.5를 넘어섰다고 전한다. 또한 평균 선행 PER이 13배 수준으로 낮아졌다고 언급한다. 메모리 반도체 업종은 10월 한 달 동안 크게 하락했고, 레버리지 ETF에서 대규모 매도가 나왔다고 설명한다. 반면 마이크론·SK하이닉스 등 메모리 기업의 실적 콜에서는 장기 계약과 강한 수요가 언급되었고, 중국 CXMT의 성장 가능성도 함께 다룬다. 이번 주 주요 변수로는 ADP와 BLS 고용 지표, 금리 인상 전망, 국채 차환 발표, 중간선거 결과가 꼽힌다. 다만 영상 내용은 진행자의 개인적 해석과 전망이 많이 섞여 있으며, 특정 수치와 예측은 원문 발언에 근거한 것이므로 투자 판단의 근거로 보기는 어렵다. 영상 후반부에는 칼시 예측시장 광고와 채널 홍보가 포함되어 있다.
다듬은 글
I don't want to get my hopes up, but we just got some very interesting news coming across the wire feeds. First of all, Trump on Israel aid gets cut off at the end of a the end of the year. He was just on an interview on Fox News and he just broke down that Trump argues at the end of the year, Israeli aid is done because they don't need it.
And if they needed it, I would say keep it going. But they've reached an agreement with BB to end aid for Israel. Now, that's interesting. If we're about to go to war, why would we end aid to Israel? Well, that's where at the same time, simultaneously, we're actually getting another headline coming across right now.
Saudi Arabia and folks close to the mediation team have found the United States has now officially agreed to a new memorandum of understanding. Wow. In fairness, lastouou didn't do too well. Okay. But this is very interesting. Apparently, sources close to the mediation team argue that tan made concessions on the nuclear file and frozen assets.
That was a key staker. Are the Iranians ever going to budge on that highlyenriched uranium? We don't obviously have the details yet, but this so far this is good. Especially look, market's been something else. Okay, we'll talk about the market in just a moment, but uh Trump on Israel says they will have the option to buy weapons and buy whatever they want.
But now oil markets are reacting to the potential of an quote imminent peace deal as the Saudis and the Qataris argue, oh wow, the United States actually went for this. This is remarkable. So, we don't obviously have the details yet, but what I'd like to do is I want to show you oil and then let's talk a little bit about what's going on uh over the last few days.
So, first of all, oil right now it's only down about 2.4%. But this news is also just now starting to cross. So, a lot of people getting excited about what we're seeing in oil coming down substantially. Now, this is over the last 5 days here. We're now down from 117 down to 102. We look at the last month.
Look at that collapse there in oil prices. And this is what I was starting to think yesterday. I was like, man, yesterday oil prices were down 7%. Now they're down even more. Donald Trump's advisors are hard at work at shorting oil right now. Maybe they know something's happening. And I'm telling you, it can't come soon enough.
Yesterday was the first negative one and a half standard deviation day on the NASDAQ 100 in 250 trading days. That's bad. Okay, the last time we had that was January 21st of 2022, which happens to align with a certain date that's relative to us over here when uh when when Kevin may have said, you know what, it's about to be bad for the next uh you know, year or so.
I'm out of here. We didn't really reby until later that year, right? Those who know. But anyway, the other time we had a negative 1.5 standard deviation day was February 28th of 2021. uh sorry 2001. So.com bubble not great but what is great right now is that stock multiples have plummeted. We're looking at a 13 on average forward PE.
Cisco after the stock market crash of the dotcom bubble was trading for a forward PE of between 10 and 20. Okay, a lot of these stocks right now sitting at 13. That's crazy. Things are cheap right now. It's a good thing. It's an opportunity, but it it doesn't feel good. We just lost 700 on the cues two days in a row.
We are starting to reject 700. The market is not happy. Anybody who reports not happy yet. Technically, the market hasn't crashed yet. Goldman Sachs's Memory Basket has indicated that those stocks are down 22% in October alone, while Semis fell 18.6%. Opticals, huh? Marll and Light down 29%. Leverage ETFs had to dump $1.9 billion dollars of Micron in just one day.
It's always leverage, folks. Always leverage. Always. That's why right now I say this is not the time to be in leverage. You will get destroyed. So this is hope. Washington has reportedly approved a ja draft memorandum of understanding presented to Iran by Qatari mediators. This means we are potentially a signature and a truth social away from this deal.
I really hope it happens today. I think all Republicans really hope it happens today. I hope it happens today. Not because I'm taking a political side, but because I thought there was a good chance it would happen before the election and I don't want egg on my face. So anyway, Samsung, it's worth noting this is like global right now.
Samsung's down 35% from late May when its records set uh when its exports set a record. The Kepler World Value ETF now literally has a 14% exposure to Bicron. Now, some people call uh sorry, Kepler is commenting on the world uh value ETF and and they think that Micron is a bubble. But the world value ETF has 14% of an exposure to Micron.
Why? Well, because Micron's trading for like a.33 peg ratio, a price to earnings growth ratio right now. How much do you need to punish the company for cyclicality? At their margins, they're probably worth a 2.7 peg. Now, you have to put a cyclicality discount in that. Okay. So whatever, take one peg off.
Well, even if you took one peg off, 1.7 divided by.33, they should be 5x where they are right now. Goldman Sachs read of the September chip data indicates the chip industry is up 151% from a year ago. Average chip prices rose 128%. Units are up 10%. So a lot of this is really chips, mostly memory, right?
DRAM was up 368%. NAND was up 510%. NAND units down though in fairness counting in units isn't really the best thing to do here because the units are getting more complicated. So you're putting more in each unit for example uh like a unit of high bandwidth memory contains a lot more DRAM than a normal stick of DRAM.
So, a lot of the suits are like, man, things are oddly cheap right now, but technically the market hasn't fallen off a cliff, even though it feels painful. Something to pay attention to. Obviously, if you've been reading the earnings calls, most of the companies, including that SKH earnings call, are ridiculously bullish.
SK Hinix, for example, 14 long-term deals covering more than half of their 2027 2028 capacity with demand exceeding supply to persist through now of 2030 and visibility reaching into 2031. That's insane. Now, obviously, you know, there are concerns right now about, oh, but what about China's ability to print?
That's true. CXMT is that Chinese DRAM maker. They just hit margins of almost 90%. It was like 89.5%. A year ago they were at 35 but they were kind of like a startup sponsored by the government over there and you know its revenue is up 613%. It's probably going to keep growing. You know people actually Bernstein sees CXMT bypassing Micron in wafer capacity by late 2028.
So obviously there's some concern over capacity but GPU rental rates are through the roof. They keep rising and this is where people wonder and say, "Well, it must be the only thing left that's causing problems right now would be a deal on Iran." Maybe, maybe that's where we sit right now. So, the question then is what other catalysts are there?
Well, we do have payrolls. We expect payrolls to hold up, but we'll see. You know, last time we were expecting 90,000 jobs on the last BLS jobs report. The next one is Friday. And the last time we printed 29,000 versus that 90k expectation, you know, if the market starts price again, oh, by the way, uh, the labor market's going to roll over.
Well, that's when you actually have a recession. That's that's your real red flag. But look at those GPU rental indices. They tell you this boom is just getting started. Here, I'll pull it up for you. Look at that. This is crazy. Why is the A100 seeing a slight tick up in price? That thing's freaking ancient.
And then all of the others, the H100 way up over the last year, that's an old chip. You're talking four or four and a half years old. The H200, the B200, the B300, these sound like bombers, like we're talking about aircraft. Anyway, this is remarkable to me. Uh, and so the leftover catalyst, obviously today's the election.
We're going to be covering it. There's a lot to talk about with the election. Democrats are now per Kelshi, paid sponsor of the channel, expected with a 77% chance to take the Senate. This is deemed to be the evaluation on whether or not the Republicans sweep. It's likely to hinge on this particular poll here.
Now, uh, once we get through the election, historically, the stock market skyrockets, but we also have to get through the labor data this week. So, we can't make guarantees. We can only talk about probabilities. Historically, going back to 1950, the stock market rallies 100% of the time in the 6 months following an election with an increase of 13% on average.
By the way, here's my Kalshi banner for the sponsorship. If you want uh $25 for free when you sign up for Kali and make your first trade, go to kshi.com/r/mevin. But anyway, employment this week, we are expecting to get the ADP jobs report tomorrow and then we're expecting to get the BLS report at the end of the week.
Both of those are going to be critical. We really want these to come in solid because if they don't, that's actually when people end up getting nervous about the labor market. Other than that, the market is just being a little weeny baby about the election catalyst and the Iran war in my opinion. But that's okay.
It tends to do that every time before you get an election. I feel like I do this same speech every time before an election and the market goes to all-time new highs. But anyway, let's take a look at the expectations for labor. ADP tomorrow expecting 66,000 prior of 90. So a little bit slower but still totally fine.
What about BLS jobs on Friday? BLS jobs on Friday are 65,000 is the expectation versus 29K last. We'll see. Obviously, if we miss on those payrolls, end up having a problem. Goldman Sachs is now laying two uh blaming 207,000 layoffs on artificial intelligence going back to 2023. But so far, the economy is absorbing those layoffs.
The only problem is the people getting absorbed are seeing their new pay decline. This is actually where I've said this on the channel before and I've said it on YouTube. If you lose your job, make sure you get a new job sooner rather than later. Take a look at this tweet right here. You can follow me at realme Kevin.
Pay for new jobs is falling per Goldman. This year, 49% of laid-off workers found work at equal or better pay. 2 years ago, that was 62%. That is a 21 percentage point or sorry, it's a 13 percentage point decline uh or a 21% nominal decline. It's not good. So, it is getting harder for people to find work.
That doesn't mean the labor recession is here, but it does mean some pain is here. The canary is probably the labor market. It might not even include any single company like OpenAI or Anthropic now because the AI gains are just becoming too broad-based. So far, labor looks good. The household survey per credit agricult says people are obviously finding a job.
The household survey added 46,000 jobs in September and 569,000 in August. Now, that one's volatile. I like looking at these numbers on a 3-month average. Obviously, immigration has fallen from 3 million a year to basically nothing. All this stuff matters. You know, the Fed is arguing they want at least two more hikes.
Uh well, some people are like Lori Logan is. Goldman says one and done. Cali only gives a 29% chance of a one and done. Treasury refunding comes on Wednesday, so expect some volatility in the Treasury market there. And then I do have some other stats that I wrote down. Right now we have tech positioning is at the 40th percentile which implies 10% EPS growth versus 47% EPS growth we've printed in Q3.
The last five rotations back into tech averaged a 38% gain. Deutsche Bank does not see capitulation at this point and the memory industry is expected to put out xabytes of DRAM. But the industry is actually average on average only expecting 77 exabytes which means Deutsche Bank is much more bullish.
Intel obviously got destroyed. Average selling prices for Intel chips were up 54%. They dropped 29% the day they reported earnings or the day after they reported earnings. The market is freaking out about PC sales declining. Their average chip prices are skyrocketing. They are part of the AI boom. B300 rentals are up 106% in pricing since July despite the fact that average token pricing is down 58%.
It's incredible data. These are fantastic data points. Meta, in fairness, not expected to go positive cash flow until 2028. I made that thesis a few weeks ago. They're giving away their Metamuse. Elon just had to increase the price of Grock uh and increase or or decrease the limits to get more people to pay for it.
I hit my limit for the first time, I'll tell you that. I wasn't expecting that. I'm like, wow, I hit that a lot faster than usual. SpaceX may have to borrow a trillion dollars, says Bill Aman. He must have literally watched my video when I said $1 trillion problem about a week ago. That wouldn't surprise me, but I don't really like Bill Iman, but you know, maybe we can uh work that out over a over a beard.
Anyway, good breath is actually back. This is where we're seeing the first time the S&P 500 fell on a day when more than 80% of its stocks rose for the first time in 40 years. That suggests that people are very, very frustrated about just AI. But overall, stock market's actually doing totally fine. Look at RSP.
Obviously, we're hoping for more deal news here, but RSP, look at this. Basically at all-time highs on RSP. That's the S&P 500 equally. So, anyway, have a good election day. But these are some of my thoughts. I hope we get some of that deal news soon. Good luck out there. If you like that video, check this one out.
I think you're going to love it. Why not advertise these things that you told us here? I feel like nobody else knows about this. We'll we'll try a little advertising and see how it goes. Congratulations, man. You have done so much. People love you. People look up to you. Kevin Praath there, financial analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to get your take.
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