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Nio Day & Stock | Will Nio Bust or Real Tesla Competitor?

Meet Kevin · 2021-01-04 · 유튜브 시청 131,524 · Board Views 5 · International

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NIO Day(1/9) 앞두고 ET7 세단 출시 기대, 배터리 교환·구독(BaaS) 모델로 가격 경쟁력 확보. 라이다·자율주행 플랫폼 2.0 기대. 마진 14.5%→18% 전망(Bloomberg Intelligence), 테슬라 22% 대비 낮음. 2021년 매출 대비 PSR 약 14배로 테슬라와 유사. 적정 매수가 70달러 이하, 상장폐지 위험 약 3% 언급.

다듬은 글

※ 자동 자막 원문(다듬기 전)

01. Hey everyone, Me Kevin here. Wow, I have so much exciting information to share with you about whether or not NIO is a buy or it's a sell and everything in between. We're going to talk about what happens on NIO Day or what's expected to happen on NIO Day. We're going to talk about the bass service model.

02. We're going to talk about margins and competition and then we're going to talk about valuations and price targets. Is this a buy? Is this a sell? Is this something you want to just hold forever? Folks, let's get into this. This is going to be super exciting. First up, NIO Day. Right I mention that you should get four free stocks with Weble.

03. If you haven't yet, deposit $100, they give you four free stocks. You could do it before the video is over. You may as well do it. All right, NIO Day. NIO Day is January 9th. Think of this is kind of like a cross between an Apple iPhone launch event and a Cybertruck reveal and that's because NIO is expected to announce not only new products and services with their company, but the ET7.

04. The ET7 is no, not a pickup truck, but it is a sedan. And it is the first sedan that NIO will be selling. They first teased this back in 2019 saying it'll come out then and then they teased it in 2020 and now it's delayed until 2021, but this year it's officially supposed to be announced on NIO Day.

05. And they're already teasing it. If you go to nio.com, you'll see it. Right now, NIO only sells three SUVs and crossovers. They've got a sports car as well, but that that one doesn't really count cuz they barely sell it. The SUV and crossover market, especially that more luxury space, is where NIO has been dominating.

06. They are crushing it in this space. Small sedan though, is a market they haven't entered into yet. And this ET7, their sedan, is expected to double NIO's total addressable market and the amount of vehicles that they can sell could go through the roof with an ET7 by finally competing against Tesla's Model 3.

07. See, not only is NIO's ET7 going to compete with the Model 3, but it's also going to compete with Xpeng's P7, which Xpeng's kind of got a little bit of a head start here on NIO. They've already sold more than 6,500 of these vehicles. Tesla's Model 3 is already obviously crushing it. Tesla is the largest pure electric vehicle play in China after all, but Tesla's currently taking pre-orders for their Model Y, which enters into NIO's SUV crossover space.

08. So, this is the perfect timing for NIO to give people looking for a sedan, especially a battery electric vehicle, another option. Now, remember, NIO's executives don't actually think Tesla's the massive competition. In fact, they they don't see Tesla as like robbing their market share. They actually think the more people buy Teslas, the more people are not buying gas-powered vehicles and the more that helps NIO actually grow their market share.

09. They've got a really optimistic outlook here. And NIO also plans to release a second sedan in 2022. By then, they feel they'll be built out. They'll have two sedans and three SUVs and crossovers and they'll be happy just getting to scale with those five cars. That's at least what they said on their last earnings call.

10. Hey, quick interjection by the way, if you like the videos that I put together, . I talk stocks, the psychology of buying stocks, my strategies. I try to do whatever I can to teach you about fundamental analysis, how I put these kind of videos together. I also teach you how to buy real estate below market value, so you can really build your wealth really quickly.

11. And when you build your wealth quickly, you can invest more money into the stock market. Anyway, use that coupon code link down below. It does expire January 8th and there are bundle options listed on the page when you go there. So, you'll see the courses and the bundle options link down below. You get a great price if you bundle up.

12. And the sports car again, I kind of think that's kind of like the Tesla Roadster. Like it's cool, but it's not for the mass market. And right now, both of these companies are like get me to mass market. And NIO Day is going to be big in terms of the ET7. We really want to stack up those specs and the pricing to the Tesla Model 3.

13. So, we're excited to see what happens here. But next up that's expected at NIO Day, NIO Platform 2.0. And this is the NIO Pilot Platform, their autopilot platform. And we're expecting to hear a lot more about potentially new chipsets that are advanced enough to handle future robo-taxi networks in China.

14. That's huge. We want to know that NIO's going to be competing with Tesla in the robo-taxi space. Unless of course, you're only a Tesla bull, which I am very much a Tesla bull, but I own both of these companies. I definitely own shares in both of these. But I'll talk to you about some changes towards the end of this video regarding NIO especially.

15. But anyway, NIO Pilot right now is based on Intel's Mobileye EQ4. At some point, NIO Pilot or NIO is expected to build their own sort of from the ground up autopilot software kind of like Tesla did. Tesla also used to use Mobileye back in like 2016. But right now, NIO Pilot's already pretty good. It can overtake slow cars on highways.

16. It can take you from ramp to ramp on a highway. It's very similar to Tesla's autopilot system. Next, we're expecting to hear about a potential used car policy at NIO. So, we got a few announcements coming here at NIO Day. And these are expectations, of course. So, we'll see what reality ends up being.

17. But NIO's used car policy sounds like it could potentially be a whole lot like Tesla's guarantee that they had at first. When Tesla started selling their vehicles, people were potentially afraid of rapid depreciation with battery electric vehicles. So, Tesla's like, "Oh, don't worry. We'll guarantee we'll buy your car back in 3 years at this price." NIO might be trying to do something like this.

18. So, we'll see. Next, we could also expect more battery upgrades at NIO. NIO is really like notable for their battery swapping technology. In case you're not familiar with this, Tesla tried this, but found out that Americans didn't like it or at least that's what Elon said. But in China, NIO believes that people love to have a car that they can drive into a station in as little as 3 minutes, they get a brand new battery that's fully charged popped in.

19. So, it actually takes less time than it takes to fill up your car with gas to swap your battery and just get a new battery popped in. On August 20th, NIO launched its subscription battery as a service model and it is amazing. Now, it's it shouldn't be confused with a sir like a software as a service because it still has parts and batteries and things that decay, right?

20. But this model is so amazing because it basically lets you buy the car for about 10 to 18% less than what the car would sell for with the battery. So, this is a way that NIO is actually driving price competitiveness against Tesla by selling their car without the battery. Now, obviously you need a battery to drive, but instead of selling you the battery, they just rent it to you.

21. Somewhere around 162 bucks a month and boom, you got the battery as a service setup. Now, obviously it depends on the size of battery you get, but at NIO Day, we're expecting to hear a few more announcements. We're expecting to hear NIO and and a potential deal with the State Grid New Energy Vehicle Corporation.

22. Apparently or or at least they'll talk about this more. Apparently, they're planning to in detail announce 100 new battery charging and swapping stations that'll be built in 2021. So, there's there's a big cooperation to get more charging infrastructure and swapping infrastructure in China. This is kind of what we're expecting Biden to do in America as well, like a lot more EV infrastructure.

23. We'll see. But this this setup, like really this bass setup is so awesome because think about it. Instead of buying a car for like $52,000, like their SUVs, you could just pay $39,000 for the car and then pay 162 bucks a month. It's that simple. And the beautiful thing about their swapping system is they're also expected to announce a new battery, a 150 kilowatt hour, which could literally destroy Tesla's current ranges.

24. See, Tesla's current battery packs are like 75 to 100 kilowatt hour packs, which are what the NIO packs are as well. But a 150 kilowatt pack could literally mean taking what used to be a 300-mile range vehicle and turning it into a 600-mile range vehicle. And the cool thing is, if you already own a NIO, you could just upgrade to that 150 kilowatt hour pack, which is like like personally, I got the Tesla Model X.

25. I got a 75 kilowatt hour pack and when I charge it up, it's like, "Yeah, you got 240 miles." And we all know that with EV, you may as well take like 20% off. So, great. I got like 200 miles. The problem is, I do a round trip to LA and back. I usually have to stop the charge even if I'm fully charged up, especially if I've left the car parked for a couple days at the airport.

26. If I could swap to a bigger battery, oh my gosh, I wouldn't have to buy a new car when I wanted longer range or stop as much to charge, right? It's a very smart, effective way of not only reducing the barriers to entry for people to get into NIO's system, but it's also a great way for their users to have the benefit of flexibility to rent the battery that they need.

27. You going to go travel? Get the 150 watt, you know, kilowatt hour pack. You're not traveling, just doing daily, you know, back and forth commuting between your house and office? Get the 75 watt pack. Whatever you want, it's your choice. We also, by the way, might hear that NIO might be integrating lidar on NIO Day into their new NIO Pilot system, which this is going to be a huge deviation from Tesla.

28. I'm not sure if we're going to see this lidar integration. Could be big for lidar stocks. Stay tuned. I know MicroVision's up today. I'm not sure why. But anyway, so far, Tesla refuses to integrate lidar with their vehicles. Now, NIO integrating lidar could potentially help NIO beat Tesla to robo-taxis.

29. Unless of course, Tesla gets their act together sooner. Now, Tesla is currently testing lidar on some of its vehicles. They're using the Luminar system, but rumor has it Tesla is just temporarily using this technology to cheat Well, I shouldn't really say cheat. I talked about that in another video.

30. But basically, to teach their algorithm that they can then export to all cars rather than install lidar in each car. So, basically, they buy, you know, 10 to 100 lidar systems and they use that to teach all the Tesla cars that exist how to operate self-driving better. NIO, on the other hand wants to potentially integrate lidar into every single car.

31. Big difference. This is also what Waymo uses for their fully self-driving fleet in Arizona. Keep that in mind. Now, there's also this rumor about possibly Apple partnering with Neo and then Apple buying some lidar technology companies, but really this this is a bonus. It's not a reason to buy Neo. If it happens, whatever, it'll be great for Neo, but if it doesn't, it doesn't matter.

32. Neo doesn't need Apple honestly right now. If anything, Apple needs Neo because well, know that because we don't really know much about Apple's self-driving car, but it's story for a different day anyway. So, okay, that that's a Neo day, okay? That's just part of this video. Now, let's talk about competition between Neo Tesla.

33. Then we got to get to margin and valuation and price targets. This is going to be fun. So, at least I'm having fun with it. So, Tesla Tesla's made-in-China Model Y costs like $56,600 for the performance model and 52K for the standard model. Neo's EC6 crossover costs around $56,300. So, you know, Tesla's purposely trying to like undercut a little bit here or be close at least, right?

34. Uh BMW and Daimler Mercedes are also expected to jump into this market in this competitive like 50K range. So, we're going to get a lot of competition here. Xpeng's already there with their G3, which is cheaper, but it's also slower, which takes a little bit of the fun away of having a battery electric vehicle.

35. Tesla's Model Y goes 0 to 60 in like 5 seconds. Xpeng's G3 takes 9 seconds unless you get the performance edition, which brings you down to 5.3 seconds, but Tesla's Model Y performance is even faster. The same thing is true with Neo. Like their EC6 has or I'm sorry, ES6 has 0 to 60 in 4.7 seconds. So, Xpeng a little bit behind here on on like their entry models having decent performance.

36. I'm not going to talk much about Xpeng in this one, but the bottom line here is that Tesla's Model Y and Neo pretty good competitors. You know, there's also Li Auto, which is priced slightly lower, but so far they've gotten less market share. But instead, here's what's important here about the competition.

37. The more you get people going from Tesla to Neo, the more you start creating and and this could be a bold statement here, but I'm going to go with it. The more you start creating this Apple versus Android ecosystem, where potentially like the Li Auto becomes more like the Nokia or like the you know, the third party, and then you've really got those two winners like the Apple and the Android, where it's like you're really loyal to one or the other.

38. That's it's really too soon to tell if Neo is going to be, you know, the next Android so to speak compared to Tesla being Apple, just say as an example. But right now, the indicators are in Neo's favor. They're going to be ramping strongly and they've got some serious growth ahead of them. And there are a few reasons for this.

39. Uh first, their total addressable market share is exploding, but so is every electric vehicle maker's uh market share. But the other thing to keep in mind is is something that's unique to Neo. So, Neo uh well, Deutsche Bank says that Neo could potentially be the next iconic auto brand. And the big reason they gave a 64% referral rate.

40. It's pretty huge. People who drive Neos refer their friends to Neo a lot. And this is actually up 12 percentage points from last year. They also have this, you know, belief that Neo is so much substantially more favorable when people get into these Neo cars because Neo focuses on that luxury feel. It's kind of like having a BMW or Mercedes, but having a a cool techy new Tesla that's like a BMW or Mercedes.

41. Tesla, I I don't want to bag on Tesla here, but if if you know Tesla and you know they've got some quality control issues and and and you know that Elon's Elon Musk's goal is to keep Tesla more of like a mass market car, you kind of have to put Tesla over in more of like the Honda Civic, Toyota Camry style like finish compared to where Neo's really trying to hit that BMW Mercedes market.

42. Now, now we'll see. Obviously, Tesla's goals are to obviously, you know, increase its customer satisfaction and its quality and all that, but so far, Neo's surpassing Tesla in terms of quality control and customer service. And they've got this uh pretty awesome battery as a service swapping technology and and and really service, which is amazing.

43. All of this is helping, at least per Deutsche Bank, to believe or Deutsche Bank to believe that Neo's growth potential is huge. Right now, there are 700,000 SUVs that are sold annually in China. Neo's only grabbing 4 to 5% of that right now. Mercedes sells 4 to 5 times what Neo does. But Deutsche Bank thinks that could very soon change.

44. Now, obviously, we know that Tesla is the big winner right now. Tesla sells like 2 and 1/2 times as many vehicles as Neo does in China. You really got to combine like Xpeng, Li Auto, and Neo to start getting close to Tesla. So, Tesla's dominant here. We we cannot bag on Tesla because Tesla's my biggest position.

45. Tesla's going to remain my biggest position. I love Tesla, but again, Tesla's customer service, quality control, customer experience, it's not uncommon to hear people switching from Tesla to Neo and and loving the change, like the the improvement, you know? It's almost like it's it's Tesla your your gateway in and and then you upgrade.

46. I I I don't know. I don't want to go as far as saying that because I do believe Tesla's quality control will get better in the future. But right now, Neo's got an edge on Tesla here. Uh and again, Tesla can fix these things, but right now, Neo's biggest play, we got to focus on this, is beyond some of these benefits, the referrals, the quality control, the customer service, uh you know, the the Neo stores they do with the coffee and the culture and all that.

47. You know, that's great. But the big thing that's really helping Neo push their margins or that will help Neo push their margins here in the future, battery as a service. And this is where we're going to start talking about margins. So, we talked a bit about the competition. We talked about Neo Day. Let's get into margins.

48. Right now, Neo's sitting around a 14 and 1/2% margin. And with Neo's battery as a service technology, it's very likely, at least according to Bloomberg Intelligence, that they could get their margin up to 18% this year. Tesla sits around 22.4% not including energy credits. That's actually important because Neo doesn't account for their energy credits with their margin here.

49. So, I'm comparing apples to apples now. Neo's trying to get to 18%. Tesla's around like 22.4 or 23-ish percent. Now, Neo does not and and this gets this gets entertaining here. Neo doesn't actually own all their battery as a service assets outright. Uh so, this means they don't manufacture their own batteries.

50. But neither does Tesla. And this is the interesting part. Neo's actually partnered with a company called Contemporary Amperex Technology. This is uh I think their ticker is CATL. Anyway, they're the biggest battery producer in China. And Neo uses them to leverage CATL's technology and also to get to scale with existing batteries as soon as possible so they can start cranking a profit and getting these vehicles out there.

51. It's all about ramping as soon as possible with these vehicles because if you try to perfect up front, you end up like a Fisker and you end up with nothing in production and nothing to sell. It's not so great. Not to not to bag on Fisker here. Eventually, they'll be okay. But anyway, what's so interesting is it's very common and easy to slam Neo for not being vertically integrated like Tesla.

52. And this is a fair argument because Tesla Tesla's trying to be fully in vertically integrated. I mean, they they make the machines that make the machines and and they're all in Tesla factories, right? Neo uses you know, third-party manufacturing company to put their vehicles together. But folks, get this.

53. CATL, the battery is a company that happens to also manufacture the batteries for Mercedes, Honda, Hyundai, and wait for it, Tesla. Tesla's made-in-China Model 3 uses the same cheaper Chinese batteries that Neo uses. And these help keep battery costs down about 10% for Tesla, but Neo also gets the same benefits.

54. So, even though we know like, oh well, Tesla's making their own batteries, right? Yeah, sure. Eventually, but right now, Tesla, just like Neo, they're using the same company to make these lithium iron phosphate batteries. This is a type of lithium ion battery that's technically cobalt-free. I mean, it is.

55. It's it's cobalt-free. And you don't usually want cobalt cuz there's some humanitarian implications here and it's expensive. In America, Tesla still uses the lithium cobalt and I think it's aluminum batteries. But anyway, Tesla does plan to go cobalt-free in the future. They want to vertically integrate in the future, but they're not at scale.

56. So, Tesla's just doing the same thing that Neo's doing. So, when when we slam Neo for not being vertically integrated, in fairness, we have to look at Tesla, too, and say, well, Tesla, y'all using the same batteries in China, too. And it's interesting. It's it's interesting to see them all kind of play in the same space.

57. But anyway, partnering, you know, Neo partnering with these other companies totally makes sense, right? Minimize losses, get to scale faster, get the product out there, get more people reviewing the vehicle, get more people loving the battery as a service technology, and get to scale faster, especially with that referral rate.

58. It's it's great for Neo. Keeps their marketing costs very, very low, kind of like Tesla. It's kind of that viral phenomenon. Anyway, this this helps Neo spend more money on research and development with the leftover cash they have. In fact, when they just did an offering and they raised billions of dollars and people are like, oh my gosh, Neo's diluting their shares, which Tesla did, too.

59. Tesla raised $5 and Neo also raised billions of dollars. Neo took about 60% of that money and threw it into research and development into autonomous vehicles, took about 30% of that and threw it into research and development into the actual vehicles, and the leftover 10% they're they're using for their company.

60. They didn't even really need the cash. But Nio's doing it to try to keep innovating and stay ahead of the curve. All right, now let's talk a little bit about deliveries. So, both Nio and Tesla crushed it in terms of deliveries. Nio delivered about 7,007 batter- not batteries, vehicles in December, way up from their celebratory month in just November of 5,000 vehicles delivered.

61. That's when they delivered 5,291 cars, and now they're over 7,000. Year-over-year, they're up over double in terms of deliveries. But here's something special that isn't really being talked about yet. Nio may announce a double shift soon at JAC. JAC is that third-party car manufacturing plant that handles all the car manufacturing for Nio.

62. It's owned by well, half by the Chinese Communist Party and half by Volkswagen. I know that sometimes people don't like to hear that, but it is. And right now, JAC, I believe it's still at this point. I I don't think this has been announced yet, but right now, or at least for the recent past, JAC has only been operating on a single shift.

63. Tesla's cranking in multiple shifts per day. This really lets Tesla crank more vehicles. But very soon, we're expecting Nio to announce that JAC is on a double shift, if they haven't made that shift already. And that's really going to help Nio ramp faster. You know, getting that those production lines moving longer in a day.

64. In April 2021, by the way, and this could be a catalyst here for Nio. Nio stopped subsidizing JO- JAC for their losses. So, that means Nio is no longer sending money to the manufacturing plant to subsidize their losses. That's good. That's going to help Nio's margins again, especially if we get another shift and no subsidy of losses.

65. And on top of that, China is extending their electric vehicle subsidies through 2022, and I wouldn't be surprised if they keep kicking the can down the road. Countries want to go EV right now. So, like right now, we've got a lot of excitement around Nio. A lot of things to be positive about. But something that's also really crazy is Nio's like the battery as a service technology that Elon Musk said Americans just don't want, we're not doing it.

66. Nio, they are seeing an increasing share of their customers going for it. Something known as the take rate, which is the amount of customers that actually do it, is at was 35%, which is already ridiculously high. And it's just in last like 30 days since we last heard, it's jumped to 40%. Now, this is This is going to be interesting if we're talking catalysts for for Nio here.

67. In the short-term, it's possible that the higher the battery as a service take rate is, the lower Nio's margins look. Reason for that is you don't get as much revenue up front, right? You're getting less revenue up front, but you're getting revenue stretched out over time. We still got to see what the profitability of this ends up being because, you know, Nio is now taking responsibility for batteries that decay, basically.

68. They'll figure it out. But what's important here to remember is we want to see margin growth. We expect to see margin growth in Nio, and that's going to be a big part of Nio's valuation, which we're going to talk about next. But if we see, you know, some softer margin growth, keep in mind some of that could be because of the BaaS model.

69. We'll see, we'll analyze their next report when it comes out, but this is a little suspicion that I have that that could be a potential short-term downside for Nio, because if Nio starts missing margin, and it's because they're doing so much of this BaaS model, where they're not taking in as much revenue up front, it could hurt.

70. Just think about it. You're You're still spending the same amount of money to manufacture the car, and you're actually still manufacturing the batteries. But now, instead of getting paid in a lump sum, you're getting you're getting paid over what, five or six years, right? Anyway, let's now do some valuation estimates for Nio.

71. I I'm getting too excited about Nio, and sometimes that that gets a little sketchy because I don't want to be overly excited about a company, so I I always want to look for potential downsides. And the big downsides here are going to be margin, how profitable is that battery as a service business going to be, and keep this in mind, no matter how you slice it, Tesla's a way bigger company.

72. They are way ahead of Nio. Way ahead. Like it's not even close. And And so, you know, often times when we're like, "Oh, what's the next Tesla?" sometimes we just have to remember that Tesla's also potentially the next Tesla. Now, still excited about Nio though. Let's do a little bit of valuation for Nio.

73. Obviously, we'll keep an eye on on seeing how Nio grows here, but let's talk here. When Tesla was selling for around $420 per share, Nio was much more expensive relative to Tesla when Nio was at $50 per share. And sometimes people get confused here cuz they're like, "How is $50 more expensive than 420?" Just on a valuation basis.

74. We'll talk more about this. Tesla just skyrocketed to like 725 though. So, this creates some problems with the valuation because well, for Tesla, because now Nio and Tesla have roughly the same valuation multiple. That is they're both expensive, okay? These are both expensive companies. Don't get me wrong.

75. If they miss growth, you're going to see these things plummet. Now, Nio currently sells for about 14 times their 2021 estimated revenue. Tesla also sells for about 14 times their 2021 revenue. Now, both of the companies' revenues, you know, Tesla's is way larger. That's why they have a bigger market cap, right?

76. Tesla's got a market cap over a 700 bill. Nio's at like 80 bill. Or it's might be like 84 now, but anyway. Nio, of course, because of this is a little bit riskier, right? Smaller company, we're not sure if they're going to be able to scale yet. Tesla's already been through this path. Tesla's already been at this beginning part of that exponential growth.

77. You know, I still think Tesla on the exponential growth curve is is still at the beginning of the exponential growth curve, but Nio's even further at the beginning of the exponential growth curve. And so, it's possible that Nio is getting prematurely valued highly because people are like, "Oh, it's the next Tesla, so let's just pay more for it now." That is a risk factor as well.

78. But if Nio can get to 10,000 vehicles produced on average per quarter in 2021, which might be a stretch. Right now, we're thinking they're only going to do like 7,500 vehicles per quarter. We'll see. We get to the second shift, you know, we start getting to more efficiency, we'll see what the averages end up being.

79. But either way, by the end of 2024, 2025, I expect Nio to produce somewhere around 30,000 vehicles per month on a conservative basis. Tesla at the same time is probably going to be making close to 200,000 vehicles per month. So again, Tesla huge lead here, but if Nio hits these targets, there is no reason Nio stock is not going to be a an easy three to four-bagger.

80. Okay, now in terms of price target, my Nio price target is buying Nio under $70 per share. That would That is sort of my buy more heavily target if you're invested in this company for the next four to five years. I'd be willing to buy this company under $100 a share, but not as heavily. Still a lot of risk in this company.

81. That's obviously what is going to drive this three to four-xing once that risk goes away in the marketplace. But again, it also means it could go bankrupt after all, you're listening to some dude on YouTube. But if you buy this company under $70 per share, and it does by 2025 end up going to $200 a share, that's a 23% return on your money.

82. If you buy it for $100 a share, and it doubles, you know, by 2025, the end of 2025, that's about a 14.8% return on your money. So, you can see you're obviously incentivized to get into this one earlier. But again, it it could also get delisted and go bankrupt. So, you've got to be careful anytime you invest in stocks.

83. Those are my price targets. Entirely reasonable if they hit their their margins. So, very important. Vehicle margin, the most important thing. Right next to vehicle deliveries. And also revenue per vehicle. I'm still I'm still a little up in the air in terms of how to calculate Nio's revenue per vehicle because if they're just going to do battery as a service here, you know, it it could stretch out how long it takes Nio to three to four-x if the market doesn't understand that, "Whoa, all of a sudden Nio's revenue per vehicle is so much lower, but they're getting that monthly subscription." That's That's going to be a little bit interesting.

84. And like what what's the long-run implication here? Are people going to like somebody who buys an old Tesla like me, that the Tesla Model X, I want a bigger battery, I got to go buy a bigger Tesla. You know, I I can't I I might not have to do that with the Nio. I might be able to go from Nio with my 75 kWh package, go, "Well, I'll just upgrade the battery." You know, which I wonder, is that going to cannibalize Nio's potential car sales, or are people going to go, "Damn, why am I buying a Tesla?

85. I'll just go buy a Nio." You know, at some point in the future, Nio might come to America. We'll see, you know, certainly not going to happen under a Trump presidency, but you know, we'll see what happens here in the next four to eight years. But anyway, you know, we got to be careful. Also, because there is still some delist- delisting risk at Nio.

86. You know, Nio is technically supposed to allow third-party auditors to from the PCOB to actually check their their accounting. Now, Nio says they are PCOB compliant, but they so far have refused auditors to actually look at Nio's books because they say this is proprietary technology, and they don't want these auditors telling, you know, Nio's secrets to Tesla, for example.

87. That's That's a common fear. Just And I'm making an example here. And now, we've already seen some Chinese delistings in the last few weeks. We've seen telecoms get delisted. We're thinking we might see oil companies get delisted next. So, some real potential issues here. And if Nio gets delisted, it's going to be in a world of hurt.

88. Now, I think that's less than 3% likely, but it does keep me holding the reins a little tighter on Nio. So, there we have it. If you've appreciated thi. Share this video with somebody you think might find it helpful. A lot of work went into putting this video together. I know it seems like I just babbled for a while here, but everything that I talked about in this video was heavily researched, and I did my best to provide as much value as possible in this.

89. So, if you've liked it, hit that like button, share the video, subscribe, and folks, we'll see you in the next video.

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