저자: Kevin · 외국인
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테슬라가 버니 매도프에 비유된 분석(GLJ 리서치 고든 존슨 등)을 반박하는 영상. 2020년 4분기 인도량 50만 대 달성 가능성을 언급하며, 가격 인하에도 마진이 유지되는 이유로 탄소배출권 크레딧 제외 시 마진 하락을 제시. 2022년 인도량 2백만~140만 대 시나리오에서 주가와 마진 민감도를 계산하고, 마진이 핵심 리스크라고 강조. 장기적으로는 테슬라 보유를 긍정적으로 봄.
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hey everyone me kevin here bernie madoff is known as a fraudster who orchestrated one of the largest ponzi schemes in history with a fraud worth over 64.8 billion dollars well this week an analyst compared tesla to bernie madoff in this video i'm going to explain why they would do such a thing and what it means for tesla stock quick reminder if you're watching this on new year's eve you could still take advantage of those amazing course get some expenses rolling here new year's eve you could still write them off you know obviously check with your cpa to make sure you can write them off but assuming you could you could still write them off in 2020 which is nice because then you get to use those tax savings for an extra year to well go buy tesla stock check those links out down below just make sure to use that holiday coupon which you can also apply to the bundle offers link down below all right now tesla so tesla has a big update coming in the next few days for us we are expecting tesla to beat wall street consensus delivery estimates of 176 000 deliveries in the fourth quarter if tesla beats this estimate by just 4 000 vehicles tesla will hit a milestone of delivering 000 vehicles in 2020 despite the pandemic now this is a far cry from the two and a half to three and a half million vehicles we expect tesla to deliver by 2023 and 2025 on an annual basis depending of course on how quickly tesla can ramp up their production at their gigafactories but 500k is an exciting and round milestone unfortunately according to behrens there's a do it over at glj research an analyst named gordon johnson who has some really big questions gordon johnson finds it odd that tesla's profit margins keep going up despite the fact that tesla keeps cutting the prices of their cars now barons didn't break down the price cut history for me but what i thought i would start by doing is realizing hey i bought a tesla model x for 95 000 the seventh seater back in the day when i bought it at the end of 2017.
well i went to tesla.com over here and i realized their cheapest one is 79 000 now now i am going to have to upgrade this to black we'll go with the standard rims and let's go ahead and get the seven seat interior okay let's jump on over to full self driving i had to pay for separately later so that doesn't count anyway we look at that after the fact in okay the purchase price is about 83 000 so in other words had i just waited three years to get my tesla model x the price is now eleven thousand five hundred dollars cheaper than what i paid back in 2017 but that's back in 2017.
tesla actually ended up having three price cuts or series of price cuts just this year in 2020. here in 2020 on may 27th tesla cut the price of the model 3 and the x and the s the s and x were cut by 5 grand the model 3 was cut by 2 grand then on october 13th tesla cut the price of the model s again by three grand after the previous cut in 2020 and then they cut the model s again just six days later another 2500 while also having cut the model three by two grand so tesla has had this history of basically declining intro prices sort of for the vehicles and as somebody who bought the car three years ago i'm like dang i could have saved some money but then again i'm happy i had the car for three years because the car is what inspired me to buy lots of tesla stock so i have to be grateful for that now at the same time tesla shows us that their prices are going down which is right the analyst is right tesla's car prices are going down and they keep cutting prices to be more competitive whether it's because we got lucid air releasing a car that potentially has more battery range than tesla's model s and so tesla then decides let's just cut the price of the model 3 to continue to be competitive even though the lucid air isn't even selling yet tesla has their prices coming down and so this got me thinking okay well let's go ahead and pull up tesla's vehicular margin let's see what this dude is looking at and see if he's got any reason to be uh you know complaining so what i did is i pulled up the investor presentation over at tesla and this is our favorite line right here this is called automotive gross margin right here and this gives us a little bit of an idea of what tesla's margin has been so we had a price cut about uh maybe two-thirds of the way through quarter two at the end of may and then we had another price cut in quarter four which obviously we don't have charted here yet but hey the analyst is kind of right i mean look at this the margin went from 22.8 percent a little bit of a dip at the end of 19 to up in quarter one uh or fractionally down in quarter two and then up again in quarter three hey what's quarter four going to look like what are four could look interesting so why is tesla's margin doing so well while they're cutting prices and we've got another couple price cuts to introduce into the margin here as well well some analysts like to say it has to do because tesla includes and this is sort of what the bears like to say it's because tesla includes these right here these are tesla's credits basically carbon offset credits and tesla gets a lot of money for those and tesla includes those credits into their automotive margin so to separate this out i made a little uh spreadsheet over here and here we go look at tesla's margin now and i kind of wonder if the analyst who's bagging on tesla didn't do this i'll hide myself for a second but look at this this is the listed margin that we have on the report from tesla but if we actually look at their margin without these credits if i take out all of these credits right here and then divide by their revenues these are the margins i get so you can actually see these declines over here especially in quarter two right here in quarter one we're down to eighteen point six percent margin right uh right sort of in line with some of the new 2020 pricing that we saw then we have the price cuts in quarter two but we also have covid covid that really affected margins and we didn't start seeing margin go up again into that 20s range 22 to 23 percentage until quarter three in 2020.
so you know when we take out the credits yeah i mean there there have been some margin hits so i don't know if this analyst is just trying to find a reason to call tesla bernie madoff basically by making fun of the top line number without breaking apart the credits and realizing no you know margin did take a hit here could be potentially because of covid but also because of the price changes could be both of those the big question is going to be hey what's quarter 4 2020 going to look like and so then this kind of just gets me wondering like is this just another person who needs some tesla shorts sent to him in fact elon musk had a hilarious rebuttal to a short seller in the past this was from the end of 2019 take a look at this he sends this long tweet to david einhorn which ein is one in german and so uh that would be like one horn and elon musk picks up on that and goes dear mr unicorn fabulous name by the way because it's one horn anyway we read your letter blah blah blah and basically elon musk here is slamming the guy saying hey look we get it you have to you know slam tesla because you're trying to save face with your investors for all the losses you've gained because you've been shorting tesla and elon ends that with finally please allow us to send you a small gift of short shorts i mean it's brilliant elon's like the greatest troll ever of course david einhorn you know jumps over here and goes hey you know it's not us who has an entire website dedicated to all the untruths we've told and i've never even heard of this website but apparently it exists elon musk.today and they just kind of list some old quotes from from elon musk and there's some more complaining here from david although since this is from 2019 honestly i don't think we have to pay too much attention to david einhorn's ideas hopefully he got out of his short positions but it does always leave me wondering do we have to be concerned about tesla's margins i mean ultimately we're investing in tesla and the last thing we want to do is have blind faith when a market starts getting to the point where everybody's going you can't go wrong you can't go wrong you can't go wrong that's usually a time to be a little nervous and so i'm always always trying to understand what what is the worst case you know what what happens if if things just go in the pooper how bad is margin going to impact our stock and so what i'm going to do is i'm just going to go and pull up our you know handy dandy tesla spreadsheet here now my vehicle is delivered in 2022 here this 2.5 million that's probably too high uh you know if we can actually get to 2 million i think that would be a record in 2022 uh honestly at this point with with how slow things are ramping up this might not happen i think tesla is estimated to deliver around eight to nine hundred thousand vehicles in 2021 uh you know then we'll have two new facilities open at the end of 2021 we'll have berlin and austin maybe those can crank you know a couple hundred units each on top of the other so honestly we could potentially be all the way down at like 1.2 you know 1.4 million vehicles produced for 2022 that's going to create some issues but we're not going to speculate here right now on vehicles delivered because the lower the vehicles delivered is the bigger the p e ratio is that the market's going to value tesla at anyway so for right now i just want to look at the impact of margin keep in mind too for right now we're not going to include any kind of insurance semis or robo taxis and we're going to include full self driving in tesla's revenue per vehicle so by 2022 honestly tesla's revenue per vehicle probably still be a little bit higher but i think in the long run we'll see tesla's revenue per vehicle including the full self driving especially when that 25 000 car comes up it'll probably be somewhere around 40 000 per vehicle but more important right now is just trying to understand the impact of margin so if tesla delivers two million vehicles in 2022 uh you know a fair earnings based on 50 times earnings or a fair stock price based on 50 times earnings would only be about 701 which honestly is kind of where we are right now tesla's not going to be valued at 50 times earnings in 2020.
it's i think it's gonna be worth at least a hundred times earnings so you know if we actually get to two million vehicles we could see you know some nice stock price growth by 2022. if this ends up being closer to 1.4 you know that's that's obviously gonna hurt a little bit but the stock will still have growth in it no still it's still a thousand dollar stock by 2022 which means if you bought it today at 710 even at 1.4 million vehicles delivered at the end of 2020 uh 2022 you're still generating uh you know solid return here and this is a rate over two years let's just change that there there we go your rate of return over two years in this example is still 20 investing in tesla again assuming the market values tesla at 100 times earnings which is only fair if tesla continues to be on this mega high growth trajectory in order for a company to be valued at 100 times earnings it has to be like early in the s curve of sort of exponential growth if you're in the flattening curve you know like you don't value microsoft or apple at these numbers because they're kind of that flat part of the curve you know they're still going up but they're not going up exponentially in growth right so you value those companies at like 30 or 40 times earnings which if you did that to tesla this is where you get the natural oh my god tesla's way over value tesla's worth 362 dollars a share well that's what happens when you use a low price to earnings ratio but for a company with the trajectory that tesla has we generally use a larger p e ratio and this makes sense like amazon's and 90 times earnings and a lot of the the sas companies which i know tesla's not a sas company but you know they sell for almost well some of them infinite earnings like you got docusign that sells for infinite times earnings and snowflake uh and uh you've got square that's more highly valued lemonade i mean you got a lot of companies that are very expensive right now relative to the growth test is a pretty dang good bet but what i want to show here is the danger of margin so in this i'm assuming that by 2026 we have a 26 margin consider this i put expense margin here that's the opposite of what i told you earlier so i don't want to confuse you but uh this assumes a 26 profit margin gross profit margin on sales right because it's just one minus this number here so 26 should be reasonable whether it's with credits or without because elon musk has a goal of getting to 30 percent margin and we're going to go conservative here and go with 26 percent these are the numbers we got here so same thing you know thousand bucks even at 100 times earnings with just 1.4 million vehicles delivered and this revenue per vehicle being relatively low that assumes revenue per vehicle is going to plummet like 10 grand over the next uh over the next couple years it might not if i prop this back up to 50 50 grand per vehicle you can see the share price jumps about 1200 bucks or 2 1200 bucks so a couple hundred bucks but the big thing i want to show you is the change that margin does to tesla and this is why margin is so important margin is considered the achilles heel of tesla this is why analysts when they attack tesla they always attack vehicular margin makes sense uh you know for tesla to make a lot of money in the future it's all about that margin so if we go ahead and just leave this at 12.50 per share price that doesn't matter so much what we care about is the delta the change in price let's go ahead and plummet margin to 20 which is bad i mean neo is going to beat tesla at 20 they're not there yet they're like 15 but they're going to beat tesla if if tesla gets stuck at a 20 margin but let's do it let's see what happens to the share price okay so now we have an expense ratio of 80 or profit of 20 so let me just make sure yep that should have calculated okay perfect put that back in here let's see how the share price changed yeah you can see the share price basically sells off here about 350 dollars that's a lot like margin has a big big impact and then if i put this back down to revenue per vehicle of 40 uh yeah you could definitely see the share price almost doesn't move if we have a revenue per vehicle of 40 at the end of 22 1.4 million vehicles produced and a profit margin of of 80 i'm sorry of 20 percent here big big kind of damage to the share price we go back to that 74 that 26 profit margin we get that share price back up so tesla is very sensitive almost more sensitive to margin than it is revenue per vehicle or even revenue from like semi trucks or other sources which semi trucks i anticipate will be relatively low revenue for the time being insurance we could really tentatively just include this in services which is where tesla includes it anyway right now or so we don't have to break this out we're not really cheating tesla by not putting these things in yet and even though we might see robo taxis you know in 2021 maybe it's way too early to see how tesla's going to monetize robo taxi so you have to be really careful there like i could be really rosy with these projections like if i wanted to just be ridiculous with my projections i could load in some major numbers here we could go nuts on margin go to elon's optimistic pov we could go to a lower effective tax rate i mean there's so many things you can do to manipulate these cheats but i like to be conservative because ultimately i'm throwing my money into this thing too so gotta be a little conservative but this explains why why is it that analysts love to bag on tesla margin so now this is where we get to the interesting phase of okay well what was barron's conclusion and this is one of the reasons that i like my baron subscription and i've got a lot of subscriptions i mean i got new york times uh you know the cnbc subscription the prime premium subscription or whatever yahoo i like bloomberg i got all of them okay out of all of them i have to say barons folks this is a good one okay and i don't always read them in paper but i do get the paper version but they're good they're really good and so they they chimed in on this and they said something that i thought was really interesting they chimed in and said that one of the reasons or one of the things that actually helps tesla's profitability a lot and this is something for investors to consider when they compare tesla to other sort of more traditional dealers or manufacturers i should say is that there are no dealers that are third-party to compensate like a traditional car dealer you know toyota has to compensate dealerships and advertise on the behalf of dealerships tesla doesn't do that tesla doesn't advertise uh they're more of a meme that self advertises which is like the best form of advertising you could ask for uh and there are no dealers to pay referrals to or kickbacks to or you know credits to whatever none of that uh incentive pricing none of that tesla is is so really love tesla and now look you know is is tesla ever going to have the margin of like a software as a service company no of course not they're manufacturing cars after all but if anybody can get the margin down it's going to be a vertically integrated company like tesla where their priority is and i love this quote hopefully it's not too redundant but elon goes we make the machine that makes the machine to make the machine aka they figure out how to put together the device that creates the device that can actually put the cars together in the factories and that's one of the things tesla says that actually helps keep a moat around their manufacturing margin is because nobody else is trying to create these machines that can you know bring down uh tesla's pressing processes uh to taking uh you know something that once had 70 parts and bringing it down to two parts or maybe even one part uh and that's something very unique at tesla you know neo for example doesn't have that because and maybe they will in the future but you know they partner with jac which is half ccp owned and half volkswagen owned and so they're going to have different incentives as they're also manufacturing other cars they're not stamping only model threes or only cyber trucks so it'll it'll be fascinating to see how this evolves but behrens had a really good argument here behrens then also said hey you know another thing to keep an eye on is and this is this was from some of the criticism from these analysts was that tesla has been cutting back on their warranty accrual which warranty accrual is think about it this way if you sell a product like let's say i sell mugs and i sell 10 000 of these and i i promise everybody that there's a money-back warranty or maybe not a money-back warranty because that's like a money-back guarantee but a warranty that if it cracks because you microwave it i'll replace it for you so i might put aside i don't know two percent of all my sales for warranty claims because like who who's gonna do a warranty i don't know on a coffee mug uh it's not even worth the time to really do that right but anyway so so let's say i sell 10 000 mugs for five dollars a piece that's fifty thousand dollars and i set aside two percent that's a thousand dollars that i'm setting aside as a potential warranty expense well if i go in and say hey you know what guys today we're changing the accounting measures we're just going to set aside one percent oh well now we only have to set aside 500 bucks in warranty accruals which means we just made an extra 500 of profit that's where analysts come in and they're like ah you're doing some fancy accounting here aren't you now this gets really like this could get really like granular and boring and detailed so i'm not going to go into this any further other than telling us what barron's bottom line is which i respect behrens a lot baron said that tesla's warranty assumptions are in line with the rest of the auto industry and beyond that it's me adding here many of us believe at least those of us who love tesla the tesla might actually potentially have fewer warranty claims in the future given how few parts their well electric systems have now keep in mind that could also be dangerous because tesla does also warranty the batteries and tesla's quality uh you know customer quality control qc it doesn't have the reputation for being the best so is it possible there could be more warranty claims at tesla i mean they get sued for warranty claims right recalls i don't know maybe it's like why are they cutting the warranty cruel while at the same time all those things are happening so this is where yeah like when i hear somebody with a different perspective i i like to look into it as much as i can and so this is something that here at the beginning of january as tesla investors you're definitely going to want to pay attention to is i'll personally i don't give a crap about what the deliveries are every every every person is going to be like news outlets going to be click baiting tesla's deliveries oh my gosh it's over uh you know 500 000 or 500 000 vehicles who cares i don't care if they honestly i would prefer tesla miss 500k for the year go deliver 470 and blame coven so the stock tanks and i can go buy more what i care about is the margin i don't care if you delivered five more thousand cars than than the target this is just a psychological head trip it's stupid elon cares because he knows it's important to the share price and that's why he's uh you know pitching hey if you get a car delivered in the last three days we'll give you full like free self-driving as a trial for a year which now costs 10 grand and they'll give it to you for free for a year there was even a and i don't know if this is true but i saw this somewhere that tesla was trying to give someone delivery of their car at 1 am uh and they were complaining about how that's not cool tesla and i'm thinking to myself dude like if you're excited about your tesla take the damn car at 1am they're trying to deliver before the end of the year and they're giving you one year of free self driving what are you complaining about set an alarm clock if you're gonna go take your nap at 10 pm and just wake up at 1 am again or do what i do when i get my pizza and go leave it at the door it's not that hard anywho uh i don't know maybe maybe i'm different but keep this in mind tesla's critics are going to attack what is seen as tesla's achilles heel if margins falter the stock will falter the deliveries not a long run issue whether they hit or miss yeah is it probably going to shift the stock price maybe don't care it's too much though margin bigger issue but we're not going to hear about margin until tesla's next earnings call which i don't believe is until february which uh unfortunately you know i as much as i'd love to present that all we're gonna get here is uh hey congratulations we delivered this many cars we'll get something like that and uh and then we'll be sitting around for the next earnings call yeah we don't even have a date right now for the next earnings call so my guess it'll be uh either late january early feb we'll see but anyway that's what we've got for now thank you so much for watching if you liked get yourself some tax write-offs and folks we'll see you in the next video you
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