저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리의 인덱스펀드 버블 주장은 과장된 측면이 있지만, 현재 미국 주식 밸류에이션이 높아 향후 수익률은 낮아질 수 있다. 버리의 주장 1: 패시브 투자는 기업 펀더멘털 분석 없이 자금을 배분해 가격 발견 기능을 약화시키고 버블을 키울 수 있다. 버리의 주장 2: 러셀2000 등 소형주 인덱스는 유동성이 낮아, 대규모 환매 시 가격 급락이 더 클 수 있다. 버리의 주장 3: 레버리지·인버스 ETF의 파생상품 사용은 극단적 상황에서 큰 손실 위험이 있다(2018년 2월 인버스 VIX 상품 사례). 반론 및 근거: 뱅가드 2018년 보고서에 따르면 지난 25년간 패시브 자금 증가에도 시장 변동성 상승 상관관계는 뚜렷하지 않고, 거래량의 약 95%는 액티브 투자자와 개인이 차지한다. 밸류에이션: 저자의 라이브 대시보드 기준 미국 주식 밸류에이션은 CAPE 및 시가총액/GDP 비율 모두 역사적 평균 대비 높은 수준이다. 기대수익률: 뱅가드는 향후 10년 미국 주식 연 4~6% 수익을 전망, 저자도 S&P500 연 4~5% 수준을 제시했다. 소형주 리스크: VB(뱅가드 소형주 ETF)는 순자산 900억 달러 이상이며, 급격한 자금 이탈 시 소형주 가격 급락 가능성은 일부 타당하다. 다만 2018년 급락 후 빠른 회복도 있었다. 투자 전략: 저자는 장기 투자자라면 정기 적립(달러 코스트 애버리징)을 유지하고, 하락을 기회로 삼으며, 고평가가 걱정되면 현금 보유나 부채 상환을 병행하라고 권한다. 인덱스펀드 버블은 단정하기 어렵다는 결론이다. 예측 요약: 미국 주식은 향후 10년 연 4~6% 수준의 낮은 수익률이 예상되며, 단기 조정 가능성은 열려 있다.
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Michael burry predicts another market crash this is the index fund bubble explained now dr. Michael burry as you likely know was one of the fund managers who correctly predicted the last financial crisis and profited greatly from it a story that was portrayed in the popular movie The Big Short because of this when Michael burry speaks the market listens and because of his interview there's been a lot of discussions over the last months about index funds whether or not they're in a bubble and what that means for regular investors like you and me in this video we'll be covering three main things and the first is really understanding Michael burries claims when he calls index funds a bubble the second is watch lis be breaking down his arguments to understand whether some of them are valid and in which cases or if some arguments don't hold as much water for regular investors and third we'll end with what impact this has for investors like you and me as well as some strategies for how we can approach investing depending on how much you agree or disagree with dr.
burry we've got a lot to cover so let's jump into it and investment content like this in the future now oftentimes when hearing claims or reading articles you're getting a secondhand account of the information which is why I like going to the source if possible which is exactly what we'll do with the Bloomberg article that came from the initial Michael burry email interview the title of the article which drew a lot of attention was the big shorts Michael burry explains why index funds are like subprime CDOs CEOs are clatter eyes debt obligations that help caused the financial crisis and while this title draws a lot of attention I'm sure a lot of clicks unfortunately it doesn't do a lot of justice to what Michael burry was actually discussing in his email interview burry argued that index fund inflows are distorting prices for bonds and stocks in the market in a similar way that CEOs distorted the subprime mortgage market over a decade ago also similar to how Bloomberg's title is distorting the core arguments of Michael burry see index funds and CDOs are two completely different things however Michael buries arguing that they're having similar effects within their respective markets namely distorting the price and price discovery process within each of those markets now even that sounds a little bit complicated so let's break down Michael buries arguments and he really has three main points at least when it comes to index funds the first argument is that passive investing has remember food price discovery from the equity markets now when Michael burry talks about price discovery what he means is that when you're investing in a passive index fund you're not doing any fundamental analysis on deciding whether or not to buy the stock you're simply buying the index fund which and then in turn buys a collection of stocks in the market regardless of whatever their fundamentals are and by fundamentals we're talking about business performance so while a stock might be doing very well and the underlying business isn't growing as quickly then that stock can become overvalued but that'll still be a stock purchased by index funds because there's no fundamental analysis in that decision so this is basically the first argument burry has on index funds even if the market is overvalued people continuing to invest in passive index funds can continue to inflate this bubble so to speak until finally investors realize that the stocks have become way too overvalued and then the process quickly reverses and that gets to buries second argument about index funds which is there hidden liquidity risk to explain this he provides an example with the Russell 2000 index which is an index of small capitalization stocks so many of these stocks are small and don't really get traded a lot in the open markets however because they're included in these indices large amount of capital flows into these stocks or potentially out of depending on flows into or out of the underlined index fund when this really matters is when you have a lot of redemptions or withdrawals from index funds this can easily and quickly happen if prices start to fall and investors panic and pull money out of index funds in a relatively short period of time a good analogy brief provides is a crowded theater even if everyone is rushing for the exits the exit door is still the same size it's always been this means the next time people are rushing out of index funds in emotional panic selling there isn't going to be a lot of liquidity especially for those smaller capitalization stocks and what you're going to see is that those price declines are going to be much more significant at least in the short term and the third caveat that burry mentions is the risk of derivatives that some of these funds use in their day to day operations this argument is a little more nuanced and applies more to leveraged ETFs or inverse ETFs which we'll discuss a little bit more later but these are the three core arguments so let's start to address burries first argument which is index funds and price discovery which leads into our index funds really a bubble now this is a live market dashboard that I've created just help get a sense of generally where we stand in the market at any given time and can be used to help gauge expectations on future risk and return if you're part of my private group you can access this by going to the spreadsheet library and clicking on portfolio management live market dashboard but effectively if you look at the top right which is market valuation levels for US stocks at least compared to the two core metrics of general market valuations namely the Cape ratio and the market cap to GDP ratio market valuations in the US are quite high relative to historic average ranges this means with high valuations now it's not likely we're going to see the high rates of return we've seen over the last 10 years in the over double-digit annual percentages and over the next maybe eight years or so we're more likely to see returns from the S&P 500 I've maybe around four to five percent per year these aren't just my numbers either Vanguard which manages about 50% of all passive index funds also suggests that investors lower their expectations for future returns from US stocks in this case over the next 10 years they're expecting roughly a four to six percent annualized return for domestic stocks now that could come in the form of a roughly sideways market we've seen since the beginning of 2018 we're also possibly a more significant decline and drawdown in stocks followed by a subsequent recovery so I think it's fair to say that the overall markets that index funds are investing in are likely a bit overvalued or at least expensive at this time however the question remains is that really the primary fault of the index funds or is it a possible combination of factors which might include the index bonds but also consider the low interest rate environment and other factors that could impact the valuation for stocks Vanguard published a paper in 2018 titled setting the record straight the truth about indexing which helps address some of these concerns one finding was that despite the increase in passive ETFs are index funds in the market over the last 25 plus years there hasn't been a strong correlation or increase in overall stock market volatility or price change in addition despite becoming an ever more increasing portion of the assets that are invested in the market index funds still represent a relatively small percentage of the trading volume that's done in the markets in this case in 2018 a still full 95% of trades were done from active managers or retail investors like you and me rather than purchases or sales driven by index fund flows now regarding Berets second point his claim was that the exit door is still very small for these index funds which could make price drops more significant particularly for small capitalization stocks should we see a lot of investors sell out of index funds suddenly on the graph to the right we can see the number of public companies split out by their market capitalizations large caps at the bottom followed by mid cap small cap and then micro caps in the dark blue on the top the concern is a lot of money moving out at once could significantly impact especially these micro cap and small cap stocks that don't simply have as much trading volume as the large cap stocks however the second graph helps at least address this partially by taking a look at the market cap proportion of companies grouped by size so this would be for instance in a total stock market index what percentage of the funds are invested in large cap versus mid cap for small cap and then in the very top blue micro cap companies in this sense if there's large outflows from the index funds most of those outflows will be going to large caps which do have the trading volume to generally support those index fund redemptions without seeing significant adverse price movement beyond what's normally expected put another way the small caps and microcast will only make up a small fraction of ETF selling if the index funds start to sell off however Barry's concern could still hold because there are some index funds that focus specifically on these small cap and micro cap stocks for instance the Vanguard small cap ETF ticker symbol VB invest exclusively in these small capitalization stocks and it has total net assets of over 90 billion dollars there can be a very fast and sudden drop-off in the price of those securities so this argument I think actually holds water le specifically regarding the smaller capitalization stocks and the number of indices that are specifically tied to just those stocks but if you'll notice after the sudden decline in 2018 there was actually a very quick and sharp recovery and this is the kind of volatility that I think Barry thinks will be a little more exacerbated by the increasing amount of fun that are allocated towards passive ETFs and particularly the amount that's being invested in small caps that typically have lower trading volumes well not directly related to passive indexing The Wall Street Journal actually just recently came out with an article discussing how some stocks that are not very liquid or don't see a lot of trading volume are seeing explosive swings in the stock price either positive or negative following their quarterly release of company earnings so what this means when a potential takeaway is we can likely expect that during future declines we may see more volatility at least in the short term than we have in the past now this isn't something that should necessarily scare off investors but it can mean to be ready for these potential opportunities that come up to invest when there's excessive fear in the market now finally to briefly address burries third claim which was concern over the derivative use in some index based funds I think primarily where you see the biggest concern of that is over leveraged ETFs and inverse ETFs this is an ETF heatmap on thin vis and helps soar visualize what ETFs are available in the market but the ones that we're really concerned about here are these leveraged and inverse ETFs and there's leverage and inverse ETFs from other sectors as well but in this case we'll be just looking at the leveraged and inverse ETFs of the main US stock indices is these funds in particular that utilize the derivatives and options trading that make these funds much more risky especially in a very adverse tail-end scenario compared to the standard index funds that 99% of investors are investing in the example of these derivatives strategies blowing up and causing severe losses was actually something that we saw in February of 2018 where you had an inverse volatility product that lost over 80% and eventually over 95% of its value in just a couple days basically this inverse VIX product was betting that stocks weren't going to move much over the next month when stocks suddenly started crashing in February of 2018 the derivatives and options that made up the product effectively lost all of their value overnight if you stick with regular index funds like the majority of people do and avoid these leverage and reverse ETFs then you won't have to worry about that risk that burry is talking about so we've discussed Michael Bray's claims as well as analyze them in the context of other evidence that we have to help get a better understanding of each of his arguments so with all this new information let's take a step back and reevaluate the question are index funds a bubble and then as a follow up to that depending on your answer how would you as an investor best develop an investment strategy around that so million-dollar question are index funds a bubble understand that index funds effectively track the market so asking if index funds are in a bubble is like asking if the overall stock market is in a bubble and well I don't really like using the term bubble I think there is evidence to support that markets are at relatively high valuation levels at least compared to historical ranges this means that returns from investing in an index fund like the S&P 500 going forward are likely going to be lower than what we've seen in the past at least since 2009 lowering expectations on future returns from index funds to around 4 to 5 or 4 to 6% per year instead of the traditional 8 to 10% per year would likely better mentally prepare investors for what investing in index fund will likely be like over the next 8 to 10 years now we don't know exactly how those lower returns might actually play out it could be in the form of a sideways market that we've seen for roughly about 2 years or it could be more of a dramatic crash in prices maybe down minus 30 or 40 percent and then a subsequent recovery over a period of time however if we do see a sudden crash similar to what we saw in February of 2018 or in the last quarter of 2018 but in a much larger scale then we could potentially see some significant price swings that could be in part exacerbated by emotional selling of index funds however when that happens those significant declines will likely only be in the short run and may present an excellent long-term investing opportunity this is something that can benefit both investors in index fund as well as individual stock selectors so while the market may be a bit overvalued now there's no need to panic as long as you continue saving and investing keep a long-term focus and stick with your investment plan and strategy to that end I'd like to show you something from my investors pay down debt calculator which we'll be using to model portfolio performance investing in an index fund by dollar cost averaging over time again for reference another resource in the spreadsheet library so I won't go over all the assumptions but this is effectively representing someone who is about 5000 to invest in every year and that amount grows slowly over time so how that person started investing in the S&P 500 in 1996 and they were 100% are fully investing all their excess savings into it despite seeing two recessions seen stock declines of over forty percent in each of them this person's net worth would still be on a very positive trajection this is why for long-term investors who continue to invest in the market each and every month or each and every year you don't need to be as concerned with sudden price declines and in fact if you have many years to invest you should really look forward to them because it's at these times when prices are depressed that you actually get the most investment for your money and achieve the highest rates of return on that capital so this may be looking at a glass half full but it's really a win-win situation if stocks continue to go up then the amount of assets that you have appreciates if stocks go down then you can buy more at higher rates of return however if you're still a bit concerned about the relatively high valuations you could also continue to invest but you could decide to have a portion of that set aside in cash to take advantage of future investment opportunities in the future when forward returns are a bit more favorable or if you're not completely debt free you could decide to allocate some of your savings to debt pay down which will provide you a risk-free rate of return and also increase your overall financial health so overall I think Brewery brings up some fair concerns Halbert for the average investor with a long-term mindset this isn't something you necessarily need to worry about as long as you're aware of where the market standard valuations and have reasonable expectations for future returns then you shouldn't have to worry and you should continue to stick with your investment plan overall I hope you found this useful thought I would give my two cents on this since there's been a lot of discussion over the recent months which is a good thing for the investment community if you enjoyed this video feel free to give it a thumbs up is the best way for me to know which content you guys enjoy the most and want to see more of in the future until then community
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