저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
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마이클 버리의 2019년 1분기 13F 공시 기준 포트폴리오를 분석한 영상으로, 버리 포트폴리오는 3월 말 이후 약 10.5% 하락해 같은 기간 S&P500(+0.4%)에 크게 뒤처졌다고 결론짓는다. 포트폴리오 구성: JD.com이 약 9%로 최대 비중이며 신규 편입됐다. 이후 five point holdings, 알파벳, 알리바바, 디즈니, 페이스북, 클리블랜드클리프스, 코어포인트 로지징, 웨스턴디지털 순이며, 게임스탑·테일러드브랜즈·스포츠맨스웨어하우스 등 부진한 리테일주가 하위에 있다. 신규 편입은 그린스카이와 펫IQ이며, 바이오젠·셀진·맥케슨 등은 전량 매도했다. 섹터 비중: 커뮤니케이션서비스, 임의소비재, 부동산에 과중 배분되어 있고 필수소비재·에너지·산업재·유틸리티는 비중이 없으며 금융·헬스케어·IT는 지수 대비 낮다. 진행자는 버리의 가치·역발상 투자 철학으로 이를 설명한다. 손실 원인: 하락분의 70% 이상이 게임스탑·테일러드브랜즈·스포츠맨스웨어하우스 3종목에서 발생했다. 게임스탑은 배당 중단과 자사주 매입 불가 방침으로 경영진 신뢰가 무너졌다고 평가하며, 테일러드브랜즈는 과도한 부채와 CEO의 과거 실적(One Kings Lane 매각)을 근거로 비관적이다. 개별 종목 전망: JD.com은 중국 전자상거래 성장 베팅이며 무역협상 리스크가 있다. 구글·페이스북은 반독점 규제 우려가 단기 부담이나 장기 이슈는 아니라고 본다. 디즈니는 디즈니플러스 출시 기대로 주가가 올랐다. 그린스카이는 고레버리지 리스크, 펫IQ는 반려동물 시장 성장 기대가 근거다. 출연자 전망: 버리 포트폴리오의 단기 하락을 인정하면서도 장기 가치투자 관점에서 일부 종목은 추가 매수 여지가 있다고 보나, 게임스탑·테일러드브랜즈는 보유하지 않겠다는 입장이다. 명시적인 지수·금리·환율 방향 예측은 없다.
다듬은 글
Michael burry recently released his latest investments and behind me is his full stock portfolio now dr. Michael burry as you likely know was one of the fund managers who predicted the financial crisis and profited from it greatly a story that was portrayed in the popular movie The Big Short however despite his past success with his firm sign asset management until recently his current investments were unknown it wasn't until q4 2018 that we got the first 13f filing in over two years to finally get a glimpse into burries mind and portfolio fast-forward to today and now we have access to behind me his most recent q1 2019 13f filing which shows his latest investments in this video we'll be doing a portfolio review of scientist at management's 2019 portfolio covering dr.
Michael Murray's Holdings stock trades and portfolio performance Before we jump in take a second to make sure you're subscribed to gain access to more content like this in the future so this is Michael buries portfolio at least as of the latest 13 F filing a 13 F filing to the SEC is required by funds who are managing assets of over a hundred million dollars or more and is a snapshot of all the long stock positions and any put or call options that the fund is invested in at the end of the reporting period in this case the reporting period ended March 31st 2019 so we know that as of that date Michael burry had long positions in each of these stocks however what's not disclosed in 13 F filings are any short positions so it should be noted that he may have a few direct short positions or bets against a stock within his full portfolio that's not necessarily disclosed here what's interesting is that compared to last quarter dr.
burry has made an adjustment to every single one of his stock positions whether that's initiating a new position and the stock previously not in the portfolio selling off a position entirely or adjusting his portfolio sizing buying a bit more of some stocks and selling off a little bit of others we'll discuss each of these portfolio holdings a bit more in individual detail later on in the video but for now we'll give a quick overview of his holdings at the time of filing at the end of March the largest position in his stock portfolio was the Chinese e-commerce site JD comm which made up a little over nine percent of the total portfolio this is actually a new position that was purchased in the first quarter of 2019 and wasn't in his portfolio the quarter for the next 11 positions were all positions that he had in the fourth quarter of 2018 but he has adjust the portfolio sizing of them his second largest position is five-point Holdings a real estate investment trust third-largest is alphabet or Google fourth largest is al Taba which is now an asset management company or the remains of what was Yahoo fifth largest position the Walt Disney Company sixth as Facebook seven Cleveland Cliffs and iron ore mining company eight core point lodging a real estate investment trust nine Western Digital a digital storage company numbers 10 through 12 are troubled retail stocks specifically tailored brands GameStop and sportsmen warehouse holdings the last two positions are new additions to the portfolio green sky Incorporated and pet IQ incorporated which are both small cap companies in addition to that burry sold out completely of five of his previous positions Alexander Baldwin a real estate investment trust three healthcare stocks Biogen Celgene and McKesson as well as Mohawk Industries a home furnishing company taking a quick look back at his 2018 portfolio there are a few themes we pointed out in the last portfolio review namely there is a portfolio concentration in real estate a potential investment in digital content with alphabet Facebook and Walt Disney a contrarian bet investing in struggling retail brands as well as a smaller portfolio position in some healthcare stocks you can see the breakdown here but I'm happy to say we have much better graphs this time around so for this quarter I want to first take a look specifically at the portfolio holding changes now the way this chart works is that red highlighted sections represent the percentage of the portfolio that that stock held in the previous quarterly filing the blue bar represents the percentage of the portfolio that that stock holds now so effectively these empty red bars are positions that were completely closed out during this quarter and these lone blue bars + JD com on the Left represent completely new additions to the portfolio so with this graph you can see where there were changes to the overall portfolio weighting each stock component had in his portfolio a science from the positions he sold off and the new positions that he's added some notable changes include Western Digital and Al Taba where their portfolio allocations have roughly doubled this comes in part from price increases during the first quarter as well as relatively significant additions to the number of of each of those companies there was also a reduction of portfolio weight to core point lodging driven by breweries selling off a portion of his shares and also reduction to the proportion to tailored brands however this reduction of portfolio wait to tailored brands wasn't due to breweries selling off the position on the contrary if you look at the trading activity for the quarter Burri actually increased the number of shares and tailored brands by over 36% the reason the portfolio weight has decreased so much is that tailored brands has seen a very significant stock price decline as for sector concentration the blue bars in this graph represent the sector concentration of the sp500 generally representative of the US stock market the yellow bars represent breweries allocation to each sector last filing and the red bars represent this current filings allocation Murray's portfolio is over weighted in communication services which include Disney Facebook and alphabet consumer discretionary as well as real estate and to some extent minerals as well so compared to a general index fund or S&P 500 Murray has less or no exposure to some of the other sectors for instance having no allocation to consumer staples energy industrials and utilities and an under allocation to financials healthcare and information technology at least compared to the index now is this a bad thing per se not necessarily but it is different and part of the reason for that difference is likely due to buries investment philosophy this is a quote from his 2001 shareholder letter which I think encompasses this relatively well as much as the fund is a Value Fund it is an opportunistic fund and as much as I enthusiastically explore the value of each business behind every stock I seek the pockets of the market that are the most inefficient the most temporarily imbalanced in terms of price whatever extra return this fund will earn will be borne of buying absurdly cheap rather than selling dearly smitten I certainly have proven no ability to pick tops and I do not anticipate attempting such a feat in the future rather fully aware that wonderful businesses make wonderful investments only at wonderful prices I will continue to seek out the bargains amid the refuse so going back to the sector concentration graph with this context in mind we can get a sense that burry as a value and contrarian investor believes that his stocks in certain sectors are trading below their intrinsic value this might help explain some of the sector concentration as many times it's not just a single stock that is down but an entire sector that is perhaps trading below its historical averages now Michael burry is certainly smarter than me and I would probably bet most of us as well but that alone doesn't guarantee our performance in the stock market especially in the short term given the end of the reporting period on March 31st we can get an idea of the portfolio performance that burry has seen since that time up until now unfortunately it hasn't been great and we'll explain exactly why in a second if I hide myself we can see that over this period from the end of March to today June 6th barrese portfolio assuming no other trades were made would we down ten and a half percent over this period which compared to the S&P 500 index over that same period of time was up 0.4% effectively what that translates to in real dollars is that burry would have lost roughly ten billion dollars as an initial 98 million portfolio value at the end of March if he had instead invested in the S&P 500 he would be looking at about roughly a four hundred thousand dollar gain instead of a ten million dollar loss now with the contrarian investing style your returns are going to be different than the markets sometimes they'll be higher and sometimes they'll be lower in this case let's break down the performance of brewery's Holdings to see exactly why there was such underperformance during this period with that we'll take a look at this chart of holding performance the blue line represents the value of that stock position in dollars when Michael burry filed his 13 F filing the red bar represents the current dollar value of that position in the portfolio red bars above the blue line represent a gain and red bars below the blue line represent a loss the magnitude of that gain or loss is represented by the difference between those two levels first thing you'll notice off right away is that there are not too many bars that are above the blue line meaning that there are not too many individual stock positions that have gained or appreciated in value over this time period on the contrary the majority of the positions have actually incurred a loss over this period some of which were of reule Sibley high magnitude the largest loss coming from the stock of gamestop which of course we'll be discussing more very soon but first I want to show you this other graph which is an alternative visualization of the same concept if you haven't seen this type of graph before this is a waterfall graph effectively tracing the cumulative total portfolio performance by adding each stocks contribution one step at a time for instance JD stock alone contributed to 1.2 percent of the total decline of the portfolio 5 point holdings on the other hand had a positive contribution of 0.4 percent Google contributed minus 0.1 percent all taba minus 1.4 percent and you can follow along and see how each stock contributed to the performance now these stocks were ordered by the position size at the end of March with the largest initial positions at the left and the smaller portfolio positions on the right returning back to the waterfall graph one thing you can take away from this information is that the majority of the losses came from the smaller positions in the stock portfolio and within those smaller positions the largest losses by far came from one specific sector which was the consumer discretionary specifically the troubled retail stocks Taylor brands Gamestop and sports from the warehouse holdings those three stocks alone contributed over 70% of this 10.5% decline have those retail stocks been excluded from the portfolio Michael burry would only be looking at roughly around a three to four percent loss instead of a 10% loss over this period the magnitude of this loss for cyan asset management is relatively stark when compared to the SP return over that same period so now that we have a better understanding of burries portfolio and holdings let's take a look at some of the individual stocks and add some commentary on them specifically let's start off with the elephant in the room which is gamestop which was probably the most controversial stock in his portfolio which turns out was for a very good reason as it's the largest loser of the portfolio full disclosure I had previously owned shares in gamestop as well which I assume was for likely the same investment thesis gamestop as a retailer primarily of physical video games and products doesn't really have a lot of longevity in an era where most of that industry is going digital that being said if management nice that this is a business in terminal decline they could and should use the remaining relatively significant cash flows the company is still currently generating and returned that value directly to shareholders this would be in the form of either dividends and/or share buybacks head gamestop taking this route shares could have reasonably been valued at $14 much of that expected value coming from dividends as well as revenue from the next console release cycle instead of taking the most logical and simplest approach to providing value to shareholders new management decided to take the completely opposite approach not only do they completely cut the dividend but they say they have no intentions of buying back any shares any time soon instead they're likely to use the cash on initiatives trying to spur growth which unfortunately if history's any indication has not turned out well for gamestop given that poor management was still a risk I sold the majority of my shares in q1 after the buyout negotiations failed but still retained a small portion of shares up until the latest earnings report which have since been liquidated now for me the investment thesis for gamestop has gone as it's clear that management has no intent on running the company in the best interests of shareholders it'll be interesting to see if Michael burry comes to the same conclusion or if he continues to further add to his gamestop position which he did last quarter as well either way it'll be interesting to see a few months from now if we get that 13 F filing again tailored brands the holding company for Men's Wearhouse and Joseph a Banks is another retailer that is certainly struggling well on paper this stock looks ridiculously cheap trading at a price to earnings ratio of effectively four I've been avoiding Taylor Brand specifically for two reasons one the company simply has too much debt to really be comfortable with as a shareholder this debt was incurred when Joseph a banks and Men's Wearhouse merged and as typical with most mergers shareholders rarely win if you take a longer-term view of the stock price it's hard to believe that this is a stock that was once trading over $50 now that it's near trading at five unfortunately that's what overpaying for an acquisition can do to a company straddling the company with debt that limits returns for future shareholders and the second reason I've avoided Taylor brands is because of their CEO again a similar lesson learned with gamestop don't trust bad management now Dinesh Lahti was appointed to CEO March eight 2019 but he's been a member of the board of directors on tailored brands since 2016 his past record of executive experience well let's just say it's not great probably want to leave this one off the resume One Kings Lane was an online home decor business which was quickly growing and valued at four hundred forty million dollars in 2013 with over ten million members in 2014 the company was valued at roughly 900 million and at that time Dinesh la tía was appointed as CEO in April of 2014 fast forward just two years later and the company was ultimately sold to Bed Bath & Beyond for 12 million dollars in his short two-year span of CEO he was known for effectively and meticulously destroying 98.7 percent of the company's value now based on that track record he still has a little bit of ways to go for tailored brands but I'm not going to be there as a shareholder to find out from brewery's perspective if the company is able to continue to pay down its debt before the next economic slowdown they do have a chance of recovery however should we see an economic slowdown that impacts earnings to the point where tailored brands is struggling to make interest payments then shareholders are likely to get the short end of the stick jvcom as his largest portfolio position certainly shows some confidence that burry has with the stock and the company the stock reached a peak a little above $50 in early 2018 is now trading for roughly half of that it's trading at a high price to earnings ratio but a relatively more modest forward priced earnings ratio implying an increase to profits earned next year trade negotiations might be putting temporary pressure on the stock which could be relieved once those negotiations are complete but then again there's no guarantee on exactly winner if that is so it's hard to really incorporate that into an investment thesis personally I'm not quite as familiar with many of these Chinese companies but JD comm would appear to be a continued bet on the growth of e-commerce particularly in China as it's one of the main dominant players in that space along with of course Alibaba recently Google and Facebook are a couple of the companies in the sightlines of the government specifically for antitrust cases these cases arise when a company gets large enough that they effectively have a monopoly on a certain industry which is to consumers well this certainly may continue to put pressure on the stocks in the short term I don't really see this as a long-term issue specifically since both Google and Facebook provide their services to consumers for free there isn't really a strong argument to be made that this is detrimental to consumers I don't use Facebook's products but I do use Google's products every day and my life is certainly a lot easier because of it we'll see what happens and develops over time but it'll be interesting to see if bereave used this temporary decline as a short-term opportunity to increase his position in each of those stocks five-point Holdings and core point lodging are the two remaining real estate positions in the portfolio both of which were at or near the prices they were at at the end of March one company that burry did benefit from though was Disney which saw a significant price appreciation with their announcement of their Disney Plus service the price point of Disney Plus was much more aggressive than most people were anticipating indicating Disney's likely intention to make it a much more serious competitor to Netflix as a primary streaming option for consumers since then Disney stock has seen a rise in price to earnings multiples as investors are anticipating higher growth from the service and are willing to pay more for the stock now because of it it'll be interesting to see how burry decides to manage his position size and Disney given that some of the upside of Disney stock has now been realized Green Sky is one of the new positions in Brewers portfolio this quarter it's also a relatively new stock in general the company provides point-of-sale financing and payment solutions to merch its customers and banks but the company was only incorporated in 2017 one potential concern with the company though is that it's highly leveraged this can mean even if there is the potential for future growth they have to be a bit more careful and have less financial flexibility than other companies with lower debts and more cash point-of-sale financing solutions which the company provides might see more growth if merchants and consumers value the ability to spread out their payments through financing for a purchase well it's hard to say if this would exactly pan out there may be a a small degree of recession resiliency in the sense that when times are tough more consumers and Merchants would opt for financing as opposed to making payments in full on the other hand you could argue that the total decrease in volume of transactions would likely be a net negative to the company as the new company there's not a lot of history behind it so we'll have to see how it plays out Pet IQ is the other new position in bridgeport folio a manufacturer and distributor of veterinary products and medicines for pets the company was founded in 2010 but it's actually a relatively a recent new stock as an IPO in 2018 it's currently trading at a relatively high ratio to its current earnings but those earnings are expected to grow in the future as the company brings in more revenue which will more than offset the fixed cost that the company needs to operate which should increase earnings at a rate faster than revenue with the year-over-year quarterly revenue growth at almost 30% this looks like a fair possibility a benefit of pet IQ is that its operating in a healthy market the demand for pets and hence healthcare products and medicine for pets has been steadily increasing over the last decade and that trend is expected to continue part of this trend may be driven by the fact that as younger generations are waiting later and later to get married and have kids they're supplementing their household in the meantime with pets in addition to that pet owners are becoming increasingly more conscious of pet health which has led to a general trend of increasing pet spending per pet this thesis might take some time to play out so it'll be interesting to see how long the stock remains in burries portfolio overall I hope you enjoyed the video and got some insights from burries portfolio if you got value and enjoy this video leaving a like on the video is a great way to show that and lets me know which videos you guys enjoy most if you have any suggestions for other investors you'd like a portfolio review of you can leave that in the comments or other videos you'd like to see as well until then thank you so much for watching my name is michael and i will see you in the next video
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