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결론: 마이클 버리의 2018년 4분기 13F 포트폴리오(16종목)를 분석하며, 그의 가치·역발상 투자 철학을 정리한 영상으로 명시적인 가격 방향 예측은 거의 없음. [포트폴리오 개요] 버리의 운용사 Scion Asset Management는 2018년 말 기준 자산 약 1억 350만 달러로, 13F 제출 기준(1억 달러)을 넘어 2년 만에 보유 종목이 공개됨. 16개 종목 집중 포트폴리오이며 상위 3개(코어포인트 로지징, Alexander & Baldwin, 5점 홀딩스)가 약 28.5%를 차지함. [투자 철학] 2001년 주주서한 인용: 가치 펀드지만 기회주의적이며, 비효율적이고 일시적으로 가격이 불균형한 시장 구석을 찾는다고 함. 영상은 그가 역발상 견해를 가질 가능성이 높다고 해석. [부동산 투자신탁(REIT) 3종목] 세 종목은 시총이 작고(수억~17억 달러) 애널리스트 커버리지가 적음. 소형주의 비효율성을 노린 것으로 해석하며, 진행자 본인은 아직 가치 판단을 하지 않음. [리테일 종목] 테일러드 브랜즈, 게임스탑, 스포츠맨스 웨어하우스 등 PER이 낮은 저평가 리테일주로 약 20% 비중. 테일러드 브랜즈는 부채 부담으로 멀티플 압축, 게임스탑은 중고게임 매출 감소 우려가 주요 리스크로 언급됨. 진행자는 게임스탑을 보유 중이며 과도한 비관이 반영된 가치 베팅으로 봄. [온라인 광고 종목] 페이스북, 알파벳(구글), 야후 잔존 지분(알타바). 두 회사는 무부채·대규모 현금을 보유하고 광고 시장 성장 수혜가 기대되나, 경기 침체 시 광고 감소 위험이 있다고 언급. [제약 종목] 맥케슨, 바이오젠, 셀진. 고령화 인구 수혜를 장기 긍정 요인으로 봤으나 버리의 투자 기간은 알 수 없다고 함. [기타 종목] 월트디즈니(4위 비중, 스트리밍 서비스 기대), 클리블랜드 클리프스, 웨스턴디지털, 모호크 인더스트리. 웨스턴디지털·모호크는 2018년 S&P500 최악 수익률 종목 중 하나로, 버리가 과매도 구간에서 매수했을 가능성을 언급. [결론 및 한계] 진행자는 버리가 공황을 예측해 수익을 낸 점을 인정하되, 과거 성과가 미래 수익을 보장하지 않는다고 강조. 개별 종목에 대한 명시적 가격 방향 예측 발언은 제한적.
다듬은 글
dr. Michael burry just revealed his stock portfolio for the first time in two years now if you're not familiar Michael burry was the one who predicted the financial crisis not only did he predict that a recession was coming but he understood and anticipated exactly why that recession was going to occur because of this his firm tsiyon Asset Management was able to make millions for investors betting against the subprime mortgage market his contrarian investment bet was popularized in the movie based on Michael Lewis's book the big short which you may have heard of however since the financial crisis we haven't heard too much from Michael burry that is until now because Michael burry has just released his 13 F filing for December of 2018 in this filing for the first time in over two years we have an inside look in the investments of the man who made millions during the last financial crisis in this video we'll review his portfolio and go over each of the 16 stock positions that he has in his fund before we get into it if you're new to the channel take a second to subscribe to get access to more investment content like this in the future now getting back to dr.
buries portfolio this is an interesting update because this is like I've said before the first time in over two years that we've had a look inside his portfolio prior to December 2008 the last 13 F filings that were filed by tsiyon Asset Management were from the fourth quarter of 2015 to the third quarter of 2016 now firms are required to submit a 13 F filing if they have assets over 100 million dollars now we know from that third quarter of 2016 filing that Michael burry was only managing around thirty five million dollars of assets at that time this was below the 100 million dollar threshold for that required 13 F filing but he decided to file anyway however from that point going forward Michael burry decided that he would no longer voluntarily file the thirteen F filing since he wasn't obligated to as his assets under management were under a hundred million dollars however going back to his portfolio now the reason it appears that he's making this 13 F filing is that his assets have now gone over that 100 million dollar threshold at the end of 2018 he had one hundred three and a half million dollars under assets which is why we now get to take a look into his portfolio now the bender understand his stock investments we should take some time to try and figure out Michael buries investment perspective and how he manages his fund despite the incredible success of his fund from 2000 to 2008 Michael burry doesn't spend a lot of time in the limelight and there are very few recorded interviews with him however we can get a glimpse of his investment philosophy from this excerpt from his 2001 shareholder letter in it he says as much as the fund is a Value Fund it is an opportunistic fund and as much as I enthusiastically explore the values of each business behind every stock I seek the pockets of the market that are the most inefficient the most temporarily imbalanced in terms of price whatever extra return this fund will earn will be born a bind absurdly cheap rather than selling dearly smitten I certainly have no proven ability to pick tops and I do not anticipate attempting such a feat in the future rather fully aware that wonderful businesses make wonderful investments only at wonderful prices I will continue to seek out the bargains amid the refuse so in his own words Michael burry is running tsiyon asset management as an opportunistic Value Fund based on this I think it's fair to say and assume that he likely holds some contrarian opinions now with that context in the back of our minds let's take a look at the stocks in his portfolio in his portfolio Michael burry owns concentrated positions in 16 stocks core point lodging Alexander and Baldwin 5 point Holdings the Walt Disney Company tailored brands face book alphabet or Google Cleveland and Cliffs gamestop sportsman warehouse holdings McKesson Corporation Western Digital Al Taba Biogen Celgene and Mohawk industries these 16 stocks represent a concentrated portfolio however one that's still relatively well diversified his largest position at the end of 2018 was Core point lodging and that represented ten point seven percent of his portfolio the next nine positions ranged from nine percent all the way down to five percent of the portfolio and his remaining six positions were around two to four percent each now given that this is the first thirteen F filing in over two years we don't know exactly at what point in time in the past that Michael burry and sheeted positions in each of these 16 stocks but we do know that at the end of the calendar year he had these positions in them so with that I first want to discuss the top three holdings he had in his portfolio which at the end of the year represented twenty-eight point five percent of the portfolio those positions again were a core point lodging Alexander and Baldwin and five point Holdings now it's interesting about these three top positions is that they're a stock of a very special type and that is to say these are REIT stocks or real estate investment trusts now typically REIT stocks will hold a diversified portfolio of real estate investments controlled by a single company and securitized to trade as a stock for retail investors like you and me no actually I haven't personally heard of any of these three REITs before and that's probably for a good reason if you look at the market capitalization for each of these three stocks five point Holdings has a market cap of about half a billion Alexander and Baldwin a market cap of 1.7 billion and core Point lodging a market cap of roughly 180 million these are all very small capitalization stocks that don't get a lot of coverage well Alexander and Baldwin does have three Bank analysts covering the stock five point Holdings and core Point lodging only have one analyst that actually reviews and covers them this brings us back again to the core philosophy with how dr.
burry runs tsiyon asset management specifically going back to where he seeks the pockets of the market that are the most inefficient when we think about the market and the many of the large cap stocks especially the S&P 500 there are many analysts and investors focused on these stocks which may make it difficult for some value and opportunistic investors to find significant deviations between the price and what they believe is the company's true intrinsic value on the other hand when you're looking at much smaller companies that likely have significantly fewer investors interested or looking at them there's a greater probability for significant price deviation from that true intrinsic value investors like Michael burry might be taking a deep dive into these companies and believing that their assets or future value from cash flows is higher than the current price represents now as these three stocks are new to me I don't have any personal judgments on that intrinsic value at this time but they may be worth looking into in the future so we now know that about 30% of Murray's portfolio is in small-cap real estate stocks so what's in the remaining 70% now I'd like to highlight three additional stocks in his portfolio which make up a new investment theme and this theme is cheap beaten down retail stocks in this case those stocks are tailored brands which makes up Men's Warehouse and Joseph a bank stores GameStop which some of you know I do own a position in and Sportsman warehouse holdings combined these stocks made up around 20% of the portfolio at the end of 2018 now if you look at the stocks of tailored brands Gamestop and sportsman warehouse holdings one thing that sticks out regarding their fundamentals is that they're all trading at relatively low price to earnings ratios these low price to earnings ratios imply that the company is currently trading at a low multiple compared to the current earnings that the company is bringing in now priced earnings multiple compression or lower Pease can occur for a variety of reasons for instance taking tailored brands as an example when Joseph a banks and Men's Wearhouse merged together to form one company that combination significantly increased the total amount of debt for the new company tailored brands this high level of debt is obviously a significant concern for investors and as such most investors currently aren't willing to pay a premium in terms of that earnings multiple first shares of Taylor brand stock now should Tailored brands manage to pay off their debt to more reasonable levels one might reasonably expect that that valuation multiple to increase in the future that potentially might be one component of burries investment thesis with tailored brands gamestop on the other hand is likely facing price to earnings multiple compression due to a different reason in this case investors likely aren't willing to pay a high price to earnings multiple for gamestop because they believe that future revenues and therefore future earnings for the company are likely to decrease in the future now a decrease in future revenue were earnings for a company doesn't necessarily mean that the price to earnings ratio has to be rock-bottom but in the case of gamestop were a large percentage of both the revenues and profit come from the sale of used games a segment that's been seen increasing declines in revenue with the onset and rise of digital gaming many investors believe that there's a more significant risk of continued revenue declines that's a very fair perspective and one that investors should definitely consider however also give you my take as full disclosure I do own shares in Game Stop and so does Michael bright which my insights might be able to give some idea of potentially the thought process behind his investment in the stock throughout 2018 gamestop was in the midst of speculation of a private pilot however that wasn't the reason I bought the stock back in March of 2018 the primary reason why I bought the stock was because I believed the company was undervalued relative to their earnings and I given how far the price had dropped that investor could still likely make a decent return even if pre-owned sales continue to drop if it turned out that the decline in pre-owned sales eventually stabilized potentially indicating that instead of being reduced to oblivion the physical game market was simply resizing to a smaller base if that were the case investors in gamestop would stand to benefit from the likely increase in valuation levels given that there's such pessimism in the stock now I can't say for certain the exact reasons why dr.
Brewers invested in gamestop but it's certainly a very deep value in contrarian investment bet which seems to fit and suit in line with his investment philosophy now it's no surprise there's obviously still a lot of risk with retail these days however some investors may find opportunities in retail stocks that have been too heavily punished by the market so together beaten down retail stocks and real estate investment trusts make up six of the 16 stocks in the portfolio and around 50% of the portfolios and of your value next I want to cover what I see is the third investment theme with the portfolio which is internet information providers and online advertising this is represented by the two most dominant players in this market which is Facebook and alphabet the parent company of Google to a smaller extent within this group is burries investment in Alta which is the remaining portion of Yahoo posts the Verizon acquisition specifically on Google and Facebook they are number one and two respectively when it comes to advertising dollars that are spent online and in fact as e-commerce continues to grow and more of ad spend moves to digital Facebook and Google's stand to benefit as some of the prime recipients of that new advertising money given the such strong growth prospects for each of these two companies in the future and the significant industry tailwind that both companies are positioned to benefit from I can completely understand the value argument for each of these stocks even maybe when compared to price to earnings they are at or above market levels this is one thing to keep in mind when value investing value investing isn't necessarily limited to stocks with low price to earnings ratios or low price to book ratio x' growth or the future prospects of any company is certainly a component of the value when determining what a stock is worth for this reason under reasonable growth prospects for both Google and Facebook I could certainly understand an investment thesis on each of these companies based on the belief that they were under priced relative to future growth of course growth estimates can be wildly volatile which causes significant fluctuations in stocks where the majority of their value is based on expectations of future earnings and as well advertising dollars are likely to take a hit in the event that the economy runs into any type of recession or economic slowdown however over the long term both Facebook and Google look well positioned to weather any short-term downturns in the ad market looking at the balance sheets of both companies they have significant amounts of cash on hand and employ effectively zero debt this gives both companies tremendous financial flexibility to operate however they best see fit regardless of what the economic scenario is at the time so while these may appear growth stocks on paper the real value would occur if you believe that the growth rates currently being priced in by the market are below what your reasonable expectations are for growth of each of these companies in the future I would have to assume that burry believes that the growth prospects of each of these companies is currently being undervalued by the market both five and ten years from now I expect Facebook and Google to be bringing in much more revenue than they are today so now real estate distressed retail and information technology make up 70% of the portfolio now we'll cover an additional 10% specifically McKesson Corporation Biogen and Celgene these three companies combined made up roughly ten percent of the portfolio year-end value looking at a longer term view of the stock price of each of these companies McKesson and Biogen are trading well below their highs achieved in 2015 and before the news of the proposed Celgene buyout Celgene was trading below 50% of its 2017 high both Celgene & Biogen are major drug manufacturers and McKesson is the largest drug wholesale company in the United States all three companies trading at relatively low forward price earnings ratios implying market expectations for better earnings performance in the future a value argument could certainly be made for each of these three companies well they do have their own individual risks long term all three stand to benefit from an aging population in the u.s.
that aging population for better or worse will need more medication that these companies can provide and distribute now that may or may not be part of breweries investment thesis within these specific stocks we don't know exactly how long of a timeframe his investments are in these companies but that is at least a positive demographic tailwind for these stocks so with that we've now covered 80% of michael breweries portfolio as of 2018 and now the last section I'll call other investments now these include the company's Walt Disney Company which is actually his fourth largest stock position Cleveland Cliffs Western Digital Corporation and Mohawk industries on the last two Mohawk industries and Western Digital I think it's interesting to note that these two stocks in particular in 2018 were two of the worst performing stocks in the S&P 500 during that 2018 calendar year now because science and management didn't have any 13f filings prior to 2016 we unfortunately don't know at exactly what point in time that Michael burry made his investments in Western Digital and Mohawk industries if let's say he made his investments in these companies actually in the fourth quarter of 2018 it could have potentially been because of the belief that each of these two companies were too heavily oversold during the year compared to their actual business fundamentals now in one of my earlier stock portfolios I had actually purchased Western Digital at around $60 per share or so so I would be currently down on that position and if Barry purchased shares at or above that level he would be as well on the other hand going back to his statement in that shareholder letter where he says whatever extra return this fund will earn will be born a bind absurdly cheap rather than selling dearly smitten it's very likely that burry may have had the patience to wait until prices became absurdly cheap reaching levels below $40 for Western Digital at the end of 2018 I just think it's interesting that while many investors may be staying away from last year's worse performers burry is looking for value wherever he can find it the two other positions in this Romanian section where the Walt Disney Company or Disney and Cleveland Cliffs Cleveland Cliffs is an iron ore mining company that's trading very cheaply compared to earnings however the company is employing a relatively significant amount of death Disney on the other hand is trading at a rounded price to earnings ratio a bit under 16 and a forward price earnings ratio at around 16 as well this similarity between trailing price-to-earnings and forward priced earnings means that the market expects that earnings per share will be roughly the same next year as it will this year for Disney now as you can see from the long-term stock price chart of Disney they saw significant growth in their stock price from 2012 to 2015 however from 2015 to today Disney stock price has been relatively flat of course over that period of time you would have been collecting the roughly 1.5 percent dividend but that really isn't too much to show over the last four years in terms of total return Disney's new upcoming streaming service might be a new opportunity to gain some traction in both revenue and earnings growth for the company to what extent this is a component of burries investment thesis and Disney I'm not a hundred percent sure however he clearly had some conviction in his investment as at the end of 2018 Disney was the fourth largest position in his portfolio and the largest position in his portfolio if you exclude the real estate investment trusts so there you have it Michael burry of Scion asset management and his 2018 investment portfolio now many people consider Michael burry a genius for predicting the financial crisis exactly why it was going to occur and then making millions by profiting off of it well this is no guarantee of his future clairvoyance or investment returns going forward I still think it's worthwhile to sometimes take a look at what other smart people are doing and to see if we can learn a thing or two from them with that being said let me know in the comments below what you learned from this video and what you found most interesting about Michael burries portfolio as always thank you so much for watching my name is Michael and I will see you in the next video
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