저자: MichaelJay · 외국인
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영상 결론: 레이 달리오의 2020년 경기침체 확률 하향(70%→35%)에 대체로 동의하나, 연준의 정책 여지 축소로 침체 자체를 막기는 어렵다고 봄. 달리오 전망 변화: 한 달 전 '상당한 침체 위험'을 언급했으나 이후 연준 입장 변화(비둘기파 전환)를 근거로 확률을 낮춤. 연준 정책 전환: 2018년 금융시장 변동성으로 인해 금리 인상 기조가 되돌려지고 있으며, 2019년 금리 동결이 시장 기대(80% 이상)이고 인하 기대도 존재함. 대차대조표 축소(QT)도 2019년 중단 예정. 연준 여력 제한: 2% 수준의 금리는 과거 침체 때 인하 여력이 충분치 않으며, 과거 금리 고점이 2000년→2007년→2019년으로 낮아져 침체 대응력이 약화됨. 양적완화(QE) 재개 가능성은 언급됨. 역사적 패턴: 1955년 이후 연준은 침체 전 금리를 올리고 침체 시 인하하는 패턴을 보였음. 2000·2008년 침체 전후 금리 궤적을 근거로 제시. 출연자 전망: 2020년 이전 침체 가능성 및 연준의 침체 방지 능력에 대해 회의적 입장. 다만 시청자 의견을 질문으로 던짐. 채널 공지: 디스코드 라이브 방송 주 2회(화·목 오후 8시~9시 ET) 예고.
다듬은 글
Ray Dalio, the manager of the world's largest hedge fund, has said that the chances of an economic recession he predicted have decreased . In general, I don't think there's much value in these particular predictions . However, I think we can gain some value and insight by examining the thinking behind it and the history and past recessions.
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Back to the topic , why has Ray Dalio concluded that there is less chance of an economic recession now? This is a stark contrast to a month ago , when he said there was a "significant risk" of recession. He said that even looking at the same period last year, there is a 70% chance of a recession by 2020.
Now, the main reason Dalio is presenting a positive view is because the Federal Reserve has changed its stance to a more dovish one . He elaborated on this in a LinkedIn post that serves as a source for these articles , describing his early thinking on what he thought would trigger the next recession .
In this case, Dalio suspected that the economic growth achieved at the end of 2017 was temporary and that the Federal Reserve's response would lead to a decline in asset prices and a slowdown in the economy . But, as you know, financial markets experienced high volatility in 2018 , which appears to have affected the Federal Reserve's future decisions.
This has led the Federal Reserve to become more accommodative in its monetary policy, reversing the normalization we have been seeing for the past 2 years . To see this change in expectations for Federal Reserve policy graphically , take a look at the following chart. This chart shows the market's best estimate of what the Federal Reserve's interest rate will be in December 2019.
Higher interest rates would mean a return to rates we have seen in the past and would indicate a stronger economy . On the other hand, if the Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates , it means the market is assuming that it is acting on the weakness of the economy . If you look at the top of the chart, the colored lines show what the market believes the interest rate will be at the end of December 2019 for that period.
From April to September 2018 , the red line was at the top. That is, the market expected the interest rate to be around 2.5 to 2.75 percent by the end of December 2019 . The current target federal funds rate is shown in purple , and is 2.25 to 2.5 percent. The gray line was at the top from mid-September to November 2018.
This shows that the market believed that interest rates would double from today's level by the end of 2019 to be between 2.75 and 3 percent . However, notice that the market mood completely changed in December 2018 . Currently, the majority of the market believes that interest rates will remain unchanged throughout 2019 .
The probability of no interest rate hike this year is shown by the purple line at more than 80 percent . Another interesting thing is that the next thing the market is expecting is an interest rate cut . This is in stark contrast to the Federal Reserve's recent policy of raising interest rates . In addition , the Federal Reserve plans to stop reducing the holdings of securities in its reserve this year .
The chart behind me is a list of the total assets on the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. These assets are essentially US Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities . The Federal Reserve bought these to increase credit availability in the economy and support asset prices by lowering interest rates.
Before the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve's holdings of these assets were in a stable state, at less than a trillion dollars. However, in response to the financial crisis, the Federal Reserve purchased more than $3.5 trillion in bonds to stabilize markets . The reduction in the balance of securities that I mentioned earlier is the process of allowing maturing securities to expire without repurchasing them .
Looking at the very slow decline in inventory over the past year , it is clear that this is a very gradual process . The purpose of this run-off measure is to return to a balanced balance sheet and interest rate position . Because the Federal Reserve Bank currently doesn't have many tools to deal with the next economic recession .
However, the volatility seen in financial markets in 2018 has caused concern for the Federal Reserve Bank , so it seems they are ending this run-off exercise . Let's return to Daleo's comment; He said the Federal Reserve's reaction was the primary reason he lowered his recession chance from 70 percent to 35 percent.
I don't think the specific percentages matter much , but the important thing is that he now believes the chance of a recession by 2020 is lower than he previously expected. The reason he gives for this is that the Federal Reserve can now cut interest rates by 2%, something it couldn't do when interest rates were zero .
Also, QE, a monetary policy similar to the one the Federal Reserve used to buy Treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities from 2008 to 2014, could be resumed. However, Daleio worries that central banks have limited power to correct economic weakness at the same time . I invite you to look at the chart behind me to get a historical perspective on the Federal Reserve's monetary actions before, during, and after the recession .
This shows the interest rate set by the Federal Reserve . This chart shows data dating back to 1955, with the gray areas indicating economic recessions. Take a look at this graph to see how interest rates changed before, during, and after these gray areas . If you pay close attention, the Federal Reserve Bank has a policy of raising interest rates before every recession .
When a recession occurs or is close to occurring, it will reduce that increase and implement a policy of lowering interest rates until the recession ends . This interest rate policy of the Federal Reserve Bank has been followed during every recession for over 50 years . But let's look at the last 20 years of modern history , especially the interest rate changes that preceded the last two recessions .
In January 1999, the Federal Reserve Bank was raising interest rates until July 2000 ; Depending on the market reaction, they stopped raising interest rates at that point . Then, by December 2000, it began an effort to lower interest rates to levels not seen in more than half a century . After interest rates remained very low throughout 2004 , they finally tried to stabilize interest rates and continued to raise them until August 2006 , after which they stopped raising interest rates again .
When the recession and financial crisis soon followed , the Federal Reserve again cut interest rates very quickly and sharply. Given how severe the recession was, the Federal Reserve pursued an unusual policy of keeping interest rates at zero for more than 7 years . Interest rates started rising in late 2015, but it was only in December 2016 that we began the slow process of adjusting interest rates.
Note that this interest rate hike is much slower than what it was from 2004 to 2006. Now let's return to this map, what lesson have we learned from this? What we know from this is that the market currently expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged throughout 2019 . This indicates that there is a greater than 80% chance that the December interest rate will remain at the same level as today's rate .
So, if we were to predict what this graph would look like after 10 months, we would see a pattern where the Federal Reserve would raise interest rates and then adjust. I repeat , the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates and then it will reach a stable level . If you look at what happened before those two events , we had a recession .
First in 2001, then again in 2008 . Also, note that the peak of these interest rates is decreasing each time. It was at its peak in 2000 , it was low in 2007 , and now it will be even lower in 2019 . This means that the Federal Reserve's ability to cut interest rates to stimulate monetary policy will now be much less than in past recessions .
This is why I do not believe that any action by the Federal Reserve will be enough to prevent any economic slowdown from turning into a real recession. Judging by history , it seems that that unfortunate situation has already developed. On the other hand, I can somewhat understand Dalio's view that the Federal Reserve is a bit more comfortable with a 2% interest rate now than when interest rates were at zero from 2015 to 2008 .
Dalio seems to think that this interest rate gap is enough to slow the pace of the economic recession . In any case , no one knows exactly what will happen in the future or when the next recession will occur. However, I think learning history is valuable. By understanding what actions the Federal Reserve took before these recessions , we can anticipate signs of when a recession will occur in the future.
Currently, I agree with Dalio's opinion . The Federal Reserve now has more opportunities to implement accommodative monetary policy than in the past . But, I don't believe such changes will have a major impact on preventing the coming recession. Anyway , post your thoughts in the comments below , I'm eager to hear them.
Do you think there will be a recession by 2020 ? Also, do you think the Federal Reserve really has any control over preventing a recession ? As I am working on a schedule for uploading videos , I am happy to announce that I will be joining you live twice a week, Tuesdays and Thursdays, from 8:00 PM to 9:00 PM (Eastern Time), as a thank you for your patience .
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