저자: 미상 · 외국인
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워런 버핏 등을 인용하며 '에브리싱 버블'을 경고. 글로벌 시가총액 100조달러 돌파, 실질 수익률 둔화를 지적. 쉴러 PE 38(장기평균 16 상회), 공포탐욕지수 57(1년 전 83), 구글·엔비디아·아마존의 EV/FCF 과대평가를 근거로 제시. 미국 시장이 과열되어 신흥국 상대 저평가이며, 금리 5% 수준에서 현금 보유가 방어적 전략이라고 주장.
다듬은 글
Warren Buffett isn't seeing anything that makes sense especially in this overpriced Market in fact just last year Global stock market capitalization exceeded $100 trillion for the first time in history suggesting that investors are flooding money into the stock market but despite these red flags money continues to pour into the market so why is that happening and more importantly should you be worried today I'm going to break down the numbers and show you what's really happening in the market we'll take a closer look at Key indicators like the Schiller PE ratio the fear and greed index and the EV FCF ratio so you can understand where the market is headed and how to make smarter investment choices by the end of this video I'll explain how these key metrics are signaling a potential downturn and what actions you can take to protect your wealth in an increasingly risky Market but first let's understand what is the everything bubble the term everything bubble refers to a situation where almost every major asset class from stocks and bonds to real estate and even Commodities is seeing an inflation of prices to unsustainable levels essentially it's a market phenomenon where the value of nearly everything has been driven up due to excessive amounts of money pouring into the system but the question is why is this happening and how big is this bubble in 2023 Global stock market capitalization surpassed a staggering 100 trillion marking an all-time high but here's the catch while the market is growing real returns for investors are starting to look more uncertain for example tech stocks especially in the US have seen incredible growth Rising about 25% in recent months meanwhile Global Equity returns have averaged around 10 to 133% but it's not the same story across all asset classes the bond market for instance is lagging behind with only a 5% return a stark contrast to the double digigit growth seen in stocks these numbers show just how out of sync different sectors are which adds to the complexity of navigating investments in today's market with asset classes rising at such different rates the risk of overexposure in the wrong sectors has never been higher to put this into perspective let's compare today's market to previous bubbles the 2000.com bubble is a classic example tech stocks were overvalued then many investors thought the sky was the limit only for the market to crash spectacularly fast forward to 2008 when the housing market bubble burst causing a global financial crisis both these events share one key characteristic rapid inflation of asset prices driven by overconfidence and speculative in investing sound familiar the key data point here is the pace at which assets are rising the stock market real estate and even Commodities are all seeing valuations that in many cases far exceed long-term averages the danger just like in those past bubbles we might be heading towards a correction but nobody knows exactly when or how severe it will be as we've seen asset prices across the board are soaring with many sectors reaching levels far beyond historical averages but how do we quantify this overvaluation that's where the Schiller PE ratio comes in a tool that has proven invaluable for spotting market bubbles and predicting future Returns the Schiller PE ratio also known as the cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratio or Cape is a more reliable indicator of Market overvaluation than the traditional PE ratio unlike the standard price to earning or PE ratio which uses a company's current earnings the Schiller PE Smooths out fluctuations by average earnings over the past 10 years adjusted for inflation this makes it less prone to Distortion from temporary profit spikes or Market fluctuations giving investors a clearer picture of whether stocks are overpriced relative to long-term earnings Trends the Schiller PE ratio helps us assess whether we're in a period of excessive Market optimism or if stocks are genuinely undervalued based on historical performance it's particularly useful during times of Market excess when short-term factors might mask the true value of stocks as of 2024 the Schiller PE ratio for the S&P 500 stands at a striking 38 well above the long-term historical average of 16 to put this into perspective the last time the Schiller PE ratio was this high was just before the 2008 financial crisis back then the ratio hit around 27 before the market collapsed and it took years for the economy to recover a current Schiller PE of 38 signals that stocks may be significantly overvalued right now suggesting that investors could face lower than expected returns in the near future take a look at this graph which shows the Schiller PE ratio over time notice how the ratio spikes right before the major Market crashes in 1929 as the market was on the brink of the Great Depression the Schiller PE ratio reached unsustainable levels which at the time was around 31 similarly the bubble in 2000 saw the ratio Peak at 44 again just before the tech crash and as mentioned earlier the Prelude to the 2008 financial crisis saw a sharp rise in the Schiller PE ratio signaling an overheated Market these historical patterns suggest that high Shiller PE ratio iOS are often an early warning sign of market bubbles where asset prices are detached from underlying economic fundamentals the correlation is clear when the ratio is significantly above the average the risk of a market correction increases historically periods of elevated Shiller PE ratios tend to be followed by much lower than expected returns over the next 5 to 10 years for example during the late 1990s and early 2000s despite strong performance the S&P 500 returned just around 1% annually over the next decade similarly after the 2008 crash returns were subdued for years despite a major recovery in the market this historical data suggests that high Shiller PE ratios don't just indicate overvaluation they signal the potential for lower returns over the long term as the market reverts to more reasonable valuations another critical tool for understanding Market sentiment is the fear and greed index the fear and greed index is a tool designed to gauge the prevailing sentiment of investors in the market it uses seven different factors including stock price momentum volatility and Safe Haven demand to create a score between 0 and 100 a score closer to zero suggests extreme fear while a score closer to 100 signals extreme greed the index helps us understand whether investors are overly optimistic or fearful which can provide early warning signs of Market imbalances or Corrections investor sentiment has long been a key driver of Market behavior when fear dominates investors sell off assets and markets may fall conversely when greed takes over investors become willing to ignore risk driving asset pric is even higher often Beyond sustainable levels in either case extreme sentiment can precede sign significant Market corrections as of today the fear and greed index sits at 57 indicating greed that meter recently came down because of selling but if you drag it back one year the same day last year the indicator was at 83 that is Extreme greed this optimism is eerily reminiscent of the period just before the 2008 financial crisis when the index was similarly high back then investors ignored Rising risks continuing to buy in an overvalued Market only to face a sharp correction the current raing signals that market participants may be overly confident which could mean we're heading towards another potential Market correction or crash if sentiment shifts looking at the history of the fear and greed index we can observe a clear pattern extreme levels of greed often precede market downturns for instance in 2007 just before the financial crisis the index surged to extreme greed territory similarly in early 2020 before the covid-19 pandemic triggered a global sell-off the fear and greed index reached a peak only for the market to collapse in the subsequent weeks now let's turn our attention to another critical metric that helps evaluate the value of companies in such volatile conditions the Enterprise Value to free cash flow Ratio or the EV FCF this ratio can offer valuable insights into whether stocks are overpriced relative to their ability to generate future cash flows the Enterprise Value to free cash flow ratio is a financial metric that compares a company's Enterprise Value or EV which includes market capitalization debt and cash equivalence to its free cash flow or FCF the cash a company generates after paying for Capital expenditures this ratio is a useful tool for understanding how much investors are willing to pay for a company's future cash flows factoring in both debt and Equity essentially a higher EV FCF ratio suggests that investors are expecting strong future growth but it also means that they may be paying a premium for that growth unlike the traditional price to earnings ratio which only looks at net income the EV FCF ratio takes into account a company's cash generation ability which is a more accurate reflection of its true value especially in Industries with High Capital expenditures or debt let's look at some real world examples to see how this ratio Works take Google or alphabet for instance currently its EV FCF ratio stands at 36 which is significantly higher than historical Norms this means investors are paying a premium of 36 times its free cash flow for a company that while strong in terms of Market position may not be able to generate the expected growth to justify such a high valuation similarly Nvidia a leader in the semiconductor industry is experiencing a boom in demand due to the rise of AI and gaming pushing its EV FCF ratio to 60 on extremely high figure by any measure investors are betting on nvidia's ability to maintain its market dominance and generate massive free cash flows in the coming years however such high valuations can often indicate that the market is overestimated ating future growth or underestimating risks another example is Amazon which is seeing an EV FCF ratio of 54 while Amazon's business is highly Diversified and profitable these elevated ratios suggest that the market may be pricing in excessive future growth putting the stock at risk of a correction if its growth expectations are not met now let's compare these current EV FCF ratios with historical averages historically the EV FCF ratio for most companies in the S&P 500 has ranged between 10 and 20 a ratio of 36 for Google 60 for NVIDIA and 54 for Amazon is far above the historical Norms this stark contrast suggests that the market is valuing these companies at levels that are much higher than historical averages based on future cash flow expectations that may be difficult to meet so what does this all mean for investors generally an elevated EV FCF ratio correlates with reduced future returns why because investors are essentially paying for a future growth potential of a company and if those expectations fall short the stock price is likely to correct historical data shows that periods with high EV FCF ratios often lead to lower than expected returns over the next 5 to 10 years take the example of the bubble in the late 1990s many tech companies had EV FCF ratios far above current levels and when those companies failed to live up to their lofty expectations their stock prices plummeted investors who bought into these stocks at the peak experienced severe losses when that Bubble Burst while the US Stock Market Remains the largest and most influential in the world it's also increasingly overvalued compared to International markets the relent less Bull Run in the US especially in tech stocks has pushed valuations to historical highs making it challenging for investors to find good value in contrast many International markets particularly in emerging economies are showing more reasonable valuations and could present potentially lucrative investment opportunities one of the main reasons for this discrepancy is that the US market is priced for Perfection investors are willing to pay top dollar for growth but at what cost while companies in the S&P 500 are expected to continue growing the risk of overpaying for that growth increases the likelihood of lower than expected returns International markets on the other hand often offer more attractive valuations with growth potential still on the table let's take a look at some comparative data to see how the US market is stacking up against other Global markets over the past year the S&P 500 has posted an impressive 15% return however the performance in Emerging Markets tells a different story for instance the Chinese stock market has only grown by 4% and the Brazilian stock market has had mixed performance yet over the last decade Chinese equities have significantly underperformed the US market making them potentially undervalued in the long term China India and Brazil are home to some of the world's fastest growing economies but their stock markets have not kept pace with the growth in GDP or corporate earnings this Divergence presents an opportunity for investors to look beyond the US and potentially gain exposure in Emerging Markets with much lower valuations in times of market overvaluation and uncertainty many investors are turning to cash as a safe haven a growing Trend among some of the world's most successful investors is holding large amounts of cash waiting for the right opportunities to arise a prime example of this is Warren Buffett's birkshire hathway which has consistently held more than $100 billion in cash reserves Buffett is famously stated that cash is king during periods of Market excess as it provides the flexibility to act when undervalued opportunities appear with the current market environment characterized by high valuations and increased volatility cash allows investors to stay on the sidelines and avoid being swept up in the frenzy of overpriced stocks while holding cash might feel counterintuitive when Market are rising it provides a buffer against Market Corrections and allows investors to move quickly when stocks return to more reasonable levels one of the key factors influencing the decision to hold cash is the current interest rate environment with US Treasury bonds offering returns around 5% the opportunity cost of holding cash has diminished in fact the 5% return on short-term bonds is quite attractive compared to many overvalued stocks that may offer little to no returns in the short term at the same time as the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to combat inflation cash becomes a more viable option investors are less likely to rush into equities when they can earn a solid return on relatively low-risk Investments like treasury Bonds in this environment cash allocation is a defensive strategy allowing investors to wait for more attractive opportunities without losing money to inflation or Market Corrections one know what Michael bur bought for $38 million in Thailand's overpriced Market click the video on the screen
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