저자: HowardMarks · 외국인
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Howard Marks는 세상이 불확실하므로 시장 시기 예측(타이밍)보다 개별 기업의 펀더멘털과 장기 가치에 집중하라고 주장한다. 미국 주식 밸류에이션이 역사적으로 높아 보수적으로(조금 더 방어적으로) 접근할 필요는 있지만, 전량 매도는 대부분 실수였다고 본다. 골드만삭스 예측처럼 향후 10년 S&P500 연 수익률은 약 3% 수준으로 낮아질 수 있고, 투기적 자산(밈주식·암호화폐)으로의 쏠림은 위험하다고 경고한다. 테슬라는 머스크-트럼프 관계로 직접적 수혜를 보기 어렵다고 보며, 중국은 성장 둔화 속에서도 저평가된 기회가 있다고 본다.
다듬은 글
the world is chaotic the future is never clear uh some people spend their time trying to figure out the future and pricing it I say it's unclear and we abstract from that so you know we just we just try to look at individual companies uh and figure out which ones will grow which one will weay their loans and uh and uh deal on that basis we call that bottom up not top down the question is how do you navigate today's complex Market without falling into the common traps the world feels like it's in constant upheaval doesn't it markets crashing inflation rising and then there's all this geopolitical drama so how do you make sense of it all and secure your financial future in today's video I'll break down Marx's investment philosophy what it means for the current market and how you can adapt whether you're a seasoned investor or just getting started by the end of this video you feel confident in your next move in this video I'll break down Howard Marx's latest Bloomberg interview his latest warning and why his approach is opposite to that of Warren Buffett focusing on risk management Market cycles and the idea of don't get out but first let's set the stage for why Howard Marx's warnings matter when it comes to investing Howard marks is a name you can't ignore with over 50 years of experience navigating Market Cycles Marx has built a reputation as one of the most insightful voices in the world of Finance as the co-founder of oak tree Capital managing over $200 billion in assets his memos are practically required reading for investors of all kinds from Wall Street veterans to Everyday retail investors like you he focuses on the fundamentals of investing staying disciplined understanding risk and avoiding emotional decisions in his own words he believes in looking at intrinsic value and cutting through the noise of speculation and hype but Marx isn't just about numbers and Trends he's also known for being realistic about what investors can and can't control and his latest warning it's a reminder that markets are uncertain and knee-jerk reactions often do more harm than good knowing that now let's look at Marx's latest warning Market valuation and SNP predictions the stock market today feels like it's riding a wave of optimism but with valuations soaring how can you determine whether it's time to buy or hold Marx argues that valuations are high but that doesn't necessarily mean you should jump out of the market for instance when it comes to the S&P 500 Goldman Sachs recently forecasted a modest 3% return over the next 10 years that's quite a departure from the typical average return of 10% but even with this cautious Outlook Marx isn't ready to recommend exiting the market entirely instead he advocates for a less aggressive more defensive stance while remaining invested for the Long Haul uh I think we would agree that the US Stock valuations for example are on the high side uh relative to history that would uh tell me to be a little less aggressive than usual a little more ensive but not necessarily to get out you know getting out uh is is really a big step most of the time in my 55 years in this business has been been a mistake um either you get out and it goes up or you get out and it goes down and you forget to get back in and it goes up without you so um you know it's just a matter of calibrating in my opinion your behavior between aggressiveness and defensiveness when things are a little high as they are a little more defensive than usual while it's tempting to get nervous when the market is High Mark stresses that trying to time the market is not effective he Compares it to a game of Risk get out and you might miss out on the next rally instead of focusing on shortterm fluctuations focus on long-term intrinsic value look at individual companies and their fundamentals after all if you believe in the US economy in the long term the market will likely reward you to understand marks' warning it's important to take a step back and look at the broader Market landscape with historically low interest rates over the past decade asset prices have been inflated across the board as rates rise the cost of capital increases squeezing profits and making future growth less certain this Dynamic marks points out doesn't mean you should panic but it does mean that you should be mindful about where you allocate your money especially because of the current investor overconfidence mainly in speculative sectors from meme stocks to cryptocurrency high-risk assets have surged in popularity often driven by fomo the fear of missing out while these assets can deliver extraordinary returns during bull markets they can just as easily lead to devastating losses and downturns but what about the broader risks like geopolitical instability and inflation which could disrupt this trend Trump's influence when it comes to president Trump's influence on the market things get a bit tricky Marx doesn't believe we can predict exactly how Trump's policies will impact the markets as he points out the president's influence is often limited and the Market's reaction to his actions can be unpredictable however what stands out in the current political climate is the Synergy between Trump and Elon Musk marks refers to musk's role in the government as a bromance one that can influence a significant shift in how how the government operates especially when it comes to efficiency Trump has tasked musk with improving government efficiency an area that's notoriously difficult to reform musk known for his Innovative approach could bring real change but will that translate into Market benefits how are you reading into the president's relationship with Elon Musk for instance you know he's been put in charge of the Department of uh efficiency we saw Trump at um musk's events spaceship um SpaceX uh just today do you read into the potential of perhaps how Tesla might play you know might might gain from that do you see the potential of EVS gaining from that how how do you read into that well uh I'm not smart enough to know the answer to that question uh I think that this is a very unusual situation uh one we've rarely ever seen before a a bromance if you will between a president and a and a founder of a company uh uh there's no doubt about the fact that musk is uh brilliant idiosyncratic uh people have been talking about uh increasing efficiency in government and eliminating fraud and waste for decades I don't think anything's everever been done about it and the question is uh I I I assume that what's going on means that musk uh will do more about it than has been done in the past and then we'll get to see uh whether it works but you know this is just one more thing which is so unpredictable and indeterminate that I don't think it's worth most investors doing anything about it so no point piling into Tesla no this is no the the the the reasoning through which uh Trump's relationship with musk and musk's role in government produces an improved outlook for Tesla is is very attenuated I wouldn't go there while Marx doesn't see a direct and immediate boost for Tesla from this relationship the potential long-term effect could be transformational if musk's approach to improving government efficiency succeeds it could lead to broader systemic improvements this could create a more favorable environment for businesses and even stock market growth in the future however Marx is clear that the full effects are speculative and could take years to unfold another point of interest is Trump's cabinet picks and their potential to influence Market sentiment well Marx acknowledges that we don't exactly know what the president's policies will be he does see a general optimism about the US economy's resilience the market according to Marx is still in relatively good shape but this doesn't mean it's without risks so while Trump's influence is difficult to pin down and his relationship with musk is unusual one thing is certain the US eon economy remains strong though High valuation suggest you might not get the same returns as in the past Marx advises that investors should stay focused on the long-term picture and continue investing carefully but don't let short-term noise dictate their decisions historically markets have always been unpredictable even seasoned investors can't forecast what's coming next think about the past few years alone a global pandemic geopolitical tensions and Rising inflation each of these events caught investors off guard and yet markets often reacted in unexpected ways for instance during the initial stages of the covid-19 pandemic many assumed a prolonged bare Market was inevitable only for stocks to rebound sharply within months this unpredictability Mark emphasizes is why he doesn't believe in timing the market or making extreme moves Market timing is one of the most tempting strategies for investors Buy Low sell high and you win right Howard Mark strongly disagrees he believes that trying to predict short-term Market moves is one of the biggest straps investors fall into his philosophy is rooted in Risk Management not fear meaning investors should view periods of uncertainty as a chance to reassess and recalibrate you could have said if you had a great foresight you could have said in in 2019 I think there's going to be a pandemic I'm going to get out in 2021 you could have said I think that Russia's going to invade Ukraine I'm going to get out in 22 you could have said I think Hamas will attack Israel I'm going to get out you would have been right about the events but it would have cost you a lot of money and we not only do we never know what's going to happen in the bigger world but we also don't know how the Market's going to react and so to be dogmatic and to say it's high I'm getting out is a mistake Warren Buffett who says it best says don't bet against the United States for example and you know Warren Buffett has taken money off the table more than $300 billion worth why no he says there's nothing to buy valuations are high timing the market isn't about just avoiding Financial losses it's also about avoiding the emotional roller coaster that comes with second guessing every decision did you sell too early should you have held on longer so what's the solution the easyest solution for this is to be disciplined and take a long-term approach instead of trying to predict what will happen next focus on consistent investing in diversifying your portfolio use highquality assets that can weather volatility and you're less likely to be shaken by temporary downturns but there are also other opportune markets when investors think about opportunities China might not be the first Market that comes to mind Howard marks acknowledges that many consider it uninvestable yet he sees potential in this often overlooked region viewing it as a place with Bargains abound for those willing to dig deeper China's economic growth has slowed in recent years moving from the explosive double digigit GDP growth of its earlier decades to a more sustainable but modest Pace Marx calls this shift the end of the Chinese Miracle as the country transitions away from the heavy Reliance on government stimulus while this change has introduced challenges Marx believes it also creates opportunities for investors who understand the landscape China is attempting something very difficult they had what I call the Chinese Miracle they had 10% GDP growth a year for a few decades when they were coming into the modern era uh a lot of that or some of it was built on stimulus you can't stimulate your way of growth forever uh they've tried to back off on the stimulus but that has caused a growth slowdown that they now they want to they don't want to have the full brunt of that slowdown so they're trying to kind of calibrate that's the word I use in many cases they're trying to calibrate the the right amount of stimulus to produce a a good growth but not an excessive rely on stimulus and and and stimulus sometimes leads to unwise Behavior Uh uh it's not hard to get it's not easy to get it right uh I'm hoping they will um I know they're dedicated to the test they understand the importance of 5% GDP growth and let me just say 5% sounds like a Slowdown vus versus 10 but it's a a well above average growth rate compared to the rest of the world China's calibrated approach to stimulus reflects its broader goal of balancing growth and stability Marx explains that while China has faced criticism for its slower Pace it's still growing at a rate well above most developed economies a 5% GDP growth may seem underwhelming compared to its past performance but on a global scale that's impressive Howard marks offers a nuanced view of China's economy acknowledging The Slowdown from the double digit growth rates of the past but highlighting ongoing opportunities for investors while China faces challenges like overreliance on stimulus and a weakening property Market its growth albe it's slower still outpaces most of the world the GDP growth graph reflects this shift showing a decline from the high growth years of the early 2010s as China moves from stimulus-driven expansion to a more sustainable consumption-based growth the drop from Peak growth to a new normal signals both internal structural changes and broader global economic Trends the key takeaway is that even with the Slowdown China's current growth rate remains significantly higher than most developed economies for instance the recent 5% GDP growth though lower than past Peaks is still far above the 1 to 2% growth seen in advanced economies like the us or Japan as Marx notes 5% sounds like a Slowdown but it's still well above average compared to the rest of the world this controlled slowdown allows China to address some of its deeper structural issues like excessive debt in the property sector these necessary adjustments are often misunderstood by investors who mistake them for signs of weakness this reflects a maturing economy focused on long-term sustainability one reason Marx remains optimistic about China is its relative affordability compared to other Global markets while US stocks are at a historically High valuation many Chinese equities are trading at significant discounts including stocks like Alibaba and jd.com now the crucial question what should investors do with all this information how should they respond to today's volatile markets and uncertain economic conditions or perhaps other economic options first and foremost Mark says don't get out no matter how bad the market is the temptation to sell when markets are down is huge but Panic selling can often lock in your losses the market can be volatile but it's essential to see through the short-term fluctuations and think about the long-term potential as marks points out stocks are ultimately driven by the underlying economy and over time they tend to rise eyes
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