저자: 월스트리트테크남 · 한국인
요약 보기
주간 실업수당 청구건수가 예상보다 낮아 노동시장이 타이트하고 연준의 매파적 정책이 불가피하다고 진단. 연준 이사 발언 등으로 시장이 반등했으나 ECB 금리인상 발언에 다시 하락. 넷플릭스는 가입자 증가(760만명, 예상 450만명)로 시간외 7% 상승. 미국 디폴트 CDS 상승은 부채한도 협상 마찰 때문이며 실제 디폴트 가능성은 낮지만 양적긴축과 재정 긴축이 겹쳐 유동성 감소 우려가 있고, 아직 진정한 바닥이 확인되지 않았다는 견해.
다듬은 글
This graph you are looking at right now represents the probability of the U.S. defaulting. Okay, today the weekly unemployment claims figures were released. They totaled 190,000, down 15,000 from last week. This is lower than Wall Street's forecast of 215,000. Seriously, there is absolutely no sign of a slowdown in employment.
This means the labor market is too tight right now. Ultimately, the Fed will have no choice but to implement hawkish policies. Thanks to that, the Nasdaq fell 1.5% today. But then, a savior appears again. It is none other than Fed Executive Director Raynard, who stepped in to put out the fire. She stated that inflation has been tolerated for several months; core commodity and housing costs have been tolerated for a long time, and there are potential signs of slowdowns in the problematic services and wages.
And since corporate margins are compressing, the nature of this wage-price spiral is different from what emerged during the 1970s oil shock. So, we can summarize it by saying that there is unlikely to be a sharp rise in inflation. Of course, she added that it must be constrained because inflation is high.
And she also offered some additional good advice. Regarding jobs... They delivered a package of the very statements the market loves: that inflation isn't decreasing and a soft landing is actually taking place, that aggregate demand is booming and things are doing better than expected, and that the sharp rise in interest rates hasn't taken effect yet, suggesting there's no need to raise rates further.
Thanks to this, the Nasdaq rebounded fiercely. Just when I was thinking, " How could anyone have predicted this?" the European Central Bank stepped in. They declared, " We are going to raise interest rates further, looking at 0.5 to 0.75. And hey, market, we're going to do this longer than you think.
Don't mess with us." With these hawkish remarks, European and US stocks surged simultaneously. Conversely, the market plummeted again, and just when it seemed it would finish at the -0.9% mark, there was one more thing left. And then, dynamically, Netflix set off fireworks right after the market close.
It is rising 7%. Also, Nasdaq futures jumped into a bullish candle in an instant; it's truly chaotic. If you look at Netflix's earnings, revenue met the consensus, but the earnings per share are abysmal; we had expected 0.59. It fell significantly short by 0.12c, but why is the stock price skyrocketing like this?
In the case of earnings per share, Netflix is a company that invests heavily in content creation, so this level of shortfall is interpreted as them having invested a bit more. And in fact, Netflix's performance has been driven strictly by this. What is it? Let me give you a hint: I move by this too.
No, sorry. It is subscribers. Since subscription revenue accounts for 999% of Netflix's revenue, subscribers are the most important factor. Global subscribers increased by a whopping 7.6 million this quarter, significantly exceeding the forecast of 4.5 million. It also nearly tripled compared to the 2.4 million in the previous quarter.
Furthermore, Netflix announced that they expect even more subscribers to join starting from the first quarter of this year by launching affordable plans that include ads. Thanks to this, the NASDAQ is being significantly boosted this market. The graph you are looking at right now represents the probability of the U.S.
defaulting. Wait, isn't this a big problem? Yes, it did surge, but it is actually not on the high side. Simply put, this CDS (Credit Default) lesson is a bet on the probability of a U.S. default. That insurance product... You can think of it as buying. So, if it looks like the U.S. is going to collapse, the price of that insurance product will go up, and then the CDS premium will go up as well.
Recently, a U.S. default has been a constant issue. There is ongoing friction between the Republican Party, the Democratic Party, and the White House. It is practically a game right now. However, this is also a sufficient factor to shake the stock market. Let's shake Wall Street. In the case of the federal government, as of today, it will reach the debt ceiling of $31.4 trillion.
Wait, if the debt is full, isn't that a disaster? Oh, it is not a default yet. The U.S. Treasury holds funds from the Federal Reserve; it can only be called a default once that amount is fully utilized, but there is still a lot left. However, without a debt ceiling negotiation, the yen is projected to appreciate around August of this year.
We call this date the "date." Of course, it will be resolved before then, and a default will be avoided. This was actually a play on words. From 2016 to 2021, almost every year, the Democratic Party asked for an increase while the Republican Party insisted that no more debt was acceptable. They have used concrete negotiations as a card to achieve their respective political objectives.
Ultimately There wo n't be a default, but the problem is that the biggest issue is that the U.S. government ultimately lacks funds. They are currently implementing quantitative tightening throughout the year, which means they are sucking money out of the market. However, this implies that the U.S. government must also be frugal because they are short on cash.
This suggests that the government may also tighten for the time being. In other words, the Fed and the government are tightening simultaneously, which means market liquidity is decreasing and could have an even more negative impact on the stock market. Everyone knows— you, I, and the whole world—that the U.S.
won't default anyway. However, the reason people are reacting to this issue is that they believe stock prices could be shaken by these problems. We keep hearing a lot of bad news, but on the other hand, I also think that even if there is more bad news, there hasn't been a true bottom—a genuine bottom—where stock prices wouldn't be significantly affected. Thank you so much for watching. This has been Wall Street Tech Night.
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