저자: 월텍남 · 한국인
요약 보기
PPI 하락과 소매판매·산업생산 부진으로 경기 둔화가 확인되지만 극단적 침체는 아님. 연준 매파 발언에 나스닥 -1.2%로 반락. 다보스 포럼에서 하반기 개선·연착륙 기대가 나왔으나 연준이 5.25%를 장기간 유지하면 침체는 확실하다고 봄. 채권 수익률 곡선을 신뢰하며 하반기 약 4.8%에서 피벗(금리 인하) 발생을 예측. CPI 주거비 하락으로 물가가 급락할 것으로 전망. 단기 주가는 실적 시즌에 좌우되며 내일 넷플릭스 실적을 기다림.
다듬은 글
Yes, eerily, it hit the 200-day moving average and the long-term downtrend line, dropped, and fell again. Wow, it's almost as if Wall Street hired a painter; they drew the picture so well. It is really going exactly as they painted it. This guy is doing a great job. Now, important indicators were released today.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) plummeted. The fact that the PPI has gone down implies there is room for the Consumer Price Index to fall as well. Anyway, it was quite good news for the stock market. It fell by 0.1%, then dropped by 0.5%, surprising the market. Oh, this is a good sign. And if you look closely, the decline in energy prices was much larger than expected.
Performing nearly 88% compared to the previous month, we could see that producer prices are stabilizing significantly. However, the retail sales and industrial production indicators poured cold water on this. In the case of December retail sales, it fell by 1.1 percentage points—slightly exceeding Wall Street's forecast of -1%.
It recorded a negative figure for two consecutive months. So, we can interpret this as people cutting back on consumption. The bigger problem, however, is actually industrial production. It fell far short of Wall Street's forecast of -0.1%. Good indicators fell by 0.7%. Among these, the manufacturing sector is declining significantly.
There were many questions about whether growth is slowing and the economy is entering a recession. Since market indicators were pointing in various directions, a fairly mixed trend continued, but if you look closely at the leading economic indicators these days, it seems more accurate to say that the economy is consistently slowing down than expected.
In reality, the economy is n't getting insanely bad, but the fact is that it is slowing down; this cannot be denied. However, the key is how significant and how long this will last, so you need to keep your ears pricked up regarding the global economy to grasp the overall trend. In fact, you cannot judge where things will go or where they will bounce with every single daily stream; that is not something you should attempt.
However, if you study, you can grasp the big picture to a certain extent. You need to study at least that much. Anyway, putting that aside, today the Producer Price Index dropped, and retail and domestic production indicators came out poorly. There used to be a formula where "bad news equals good news," but that formula did not work at all today.
Daho fell sharply by nearly 2%, and Nasang also could not avoid a decline, dropping by -1.2%. There is one more thing left. On top of this bad news, two "villains" provided supporting fire. James Bullard, the Governor of St. Louis, and Moretta Mester, the Governor of Cleveland, seemed displeased seeing the stocks rise.
To summarize their remarks, they once again reinforced a hawkish stance in the market, stating that while inflation is under control, the benchmark interest rate must be maintained in the low-to-mid 5% range for a long time, and they will not lower rates because inflation must be rooted out completely.
Following the announcement, the Nasdaq, which had been rising by 1%, plummeted and finished down 1.2%, effectively ending the streak of eight consecutive trading days of gains. Honestly, I consider all of this just an excuse; I believe it was simply profit-taking because the market had risen too much.
You have to view the reasons as just fabricated excuses. The World Economic Forum, an international private conference held annually in Davos, Switzerland in January or February, took place. It is an international private forum attended by prominent business leaders, economists, and politicians from around the world.
It is said that our country's business leaders and the President also attended. The economic recession was also a major topic of this forum. Goldman Sachs CEO David Solomon and DJ Sol showed signs of slightly shifting their positions, as they expressed expectations for a significant improvement in the second half of 2023.
Additionally, former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers expressed positive hope, stating that the worst-case scenarios—such as the winter European energy crisis, COVID variants, and $200 oil prices—have all passed by, suggesting that a soft landing might be possible. It is reported that public opinion is forming among many participants at the Arvos forum that the situation is not as bad as expected and that a soft landing might be possible.
However, the role of the Fed is truly crucial. If they really drag it out at 5.25% throughout this year, a recession is 100% certain; the economy will be completely destroyed. Of course, the market doesn't seem to believe that much; they use tricks. I also believe it is correct to trust the bond yield curve more than the Fed.
I consider massive capital to be more honest and rational than people. Ultimately, barring any major issues, I predict a pivot will occur in the second half of the year at around 4.8%. The biggest basis for this thinking is that the assumption that inflation will be brought under control quickly is gaining traction.
In the case of the 12b CPI, the previous It fell by 0.1% year-over-year, but rose by 6.6%. However, if it drops by 0.1% for four consecutive months, it will fall below the target of 2%. It would literally be a decline at a tremendous speed. If it falls for six months, we would face a shocking deflationary situation with a CPI of -1%.
Let's not overreact; of course, it won't drop by 0.1%. The Cleveland Fed forecasts a 0.5% increase from the previous month, resulting in a 6.3% CPI, but Cleveland has been wrong too much recently. I believe it will rise much less than the 0.5% forecast. Even if it literally rises by 0% month-over-month, the CPI will drop insanely fast because housing costs, which make up 42% of the CPI, will be destroyed.
The US housing market is truly hopeless right now. Our country has also seen a huge drop and is in chaos, but the US is also having many problems due to housing prices. Next, rents are also falling significantly. If you look at Zillow Rently, they have dropped drastically, but this is not being reflected in the CPI at all.
Probably soon this year... By March, the CPI will be reflected, so it will drop to the point where you might wonder if it is even okay to fall this much. Okay, it's going down. Regardless of what anyone says, earnings are the top priority for short-term stock prices right now. I think the future direction of the stock price will differ significantly depending on how this earnings season goes.
Tomorrow, we have Netflix earnings waiting. I will upload an analysis video once the Netflix earnings are released.
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