저자: MissileTV · 한국인
요약 보기
미국 3배 레버리지 ETF(TQQQ, SOXL, UPRO)를 10~15년 적립식으로 투자하면 과거 데이터상 장기 수익이 크다고 주장. 최악의 경우에도 원금 대비 수익이 나며, 지수 추종 ETF는 개별주(AMD 등)와 달리 기업 교체·포트폴리오 재구성으로 안정적이라고 설명. SOXL은 변동성이 커 수익 폭이 크지만 도박성이 있어 신중해야 한다고 언급. 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션 결과를 근거로 제시.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Missile TV, bringing you the US stock crisis with the hope that the stocks I buy will skyrocket like missiles. A huge number of people came to watch yesterday's video and left comments. I do n't know how this happened or if I just rode the algorithm well, but I am extremely grateful. The response was very good, which led to many comments.
Some viewers even showed interest in the 6% figure in the comments. You asked various questions in the comments, and since there were also people asking about AMD, which I mentioned at the end of yesterday's video, I will make another video about that. Also, regarding the next video, I can be a bit spiteful, and I can't just let people who act like they are right and others are wrong get away with it, so I am showing you these comments.
It seems you watched a video claiming that if you invested with 3x leverage during the dot-com and Lehman Brothers crises, recovery was impossible no matter what. You probably speak without even watching the video that contradicts that. If you look at the comments, they say things like, " There is data from someone else," "Your information is slow," and "Ugh." You haven't done anything yourself.
You are just looking at someone else's analysis and firmly believing that "this is how it is." A person who invests relying solely on what others have done, without doing anything themselves—can you really... How successful can one be in stocks, and furthermore in life? I am creating a video with content similar to this, hoping that those wondering about this will escape the specter of the dot- com bubble.
In a video I uploaded recently, I demonstrated that even if you face a dot-com bubble, the stock won't be delisted and profits can be generated through dollar-cost averaging. I will display it at the top right. Since the video would be too short to cover only 6%, I will also cover S Excel. Let's assume we invest $10,000 as an initial investment and $500 per month under the same conditions as yesterday.
In the case of U-Pro, if we exclude the best and worst-case scenarios of 90 and 10 people when investing for 10 years, the most ordinary return you can obtain is $540,000 from a principal of $70,000—that is, a return of about 8 times. However, in the worst case, it is $300,000. Let's say you think, like with TQQ yesterday, "I absolutely cannot accept anything less than 500 million won; I will invest more," and extend the timeframe by another 5 years.
What happens if we extend it by another 5 years? Naturally, based on past data since listing, we are testing how much profit it will generate. As such, the rate of return is naturally much lower compared to TQQ, which is to be expected. However, even with a 6% return, you can still turn an initial principal of 100 million won into 2.3 billion won by investing steadily for an average of 15 years.
However, it cannot match the grandeur of TQQ; TQQQ reached 11.3 billion won. So, if you are considering investing in both together, you have the following options. If you are a more aggressive investor seeking higher returns, you can invest with 3x leverage, allocating 7 to 8 parts to TQQ and 2 to 3 parts to the 6% return—that is, a ratio of 7:3 or 8:2.
Now, let's take a look at the SOXL data, which I always include in the title but have somewhat neglected. Moving beyond the 10-year period, we will examine the results over 15 years and compare them with the 15-year investment results of TQQ we looked at yesterday and U-Pro we examined today. First, let's briefly look at the SXL chart.
To make it easier to understand, I will gather all three results in one place and continue the explanation. These are the two stocks: TQQ and SOXL. If the economy flows smoothly as seen in past data, a 15-year investment would yield a return of over 10 billion won; however, the gap in returns widens as the market conditions fluctuate.
Consequently, the difference appears to be significant in the best-case scenario. In the case of TQQ, the best-case scenario yielded 60 billion won, but for SOX, it is unbelievable—how much is it? Over 140 billion won. Why does such a difference occur? Those who know, know the answer. It is a simple principle: it is because of the difference in the indices these two stocks track.
The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index, which SOXL tracks, consists of at most 30 companies, so its volatility is much higher. Therefore, in terms of volatility alone, it is much greater than that of NewPro, which tracks the S&P 500 (converted into an index of 500 companies), or TQQ, which tracks the Nasdaq Blank Index.
For this reason, although SOXL shows large returns, the data reveals a somewhat gambling-like quality—though I am not sure if this is the right word. Therefore, I believe you need to be even more cautious. Furthermore, in the case of SOXL, due to volatility, the worst-case return is It is only about 700 million.
The difference between 140 billion and 700 million is enormous. I would be thankful even with just 3 billion, so I have no intention of investing that much in S2XL. TQQ's worst-case return over 15 years is listed as 2 billion. Anyway, even in the worst-case scenario, it is 700 million yen for SOX, but the return is still higher than the worst-case scenario of 600 million for U-Pro.
I have gathered all three cases like this, so it should have been easy to see at a glance. Of course, I acknowledge the stability of 6%. However, I intend to invest in these two stocks for the long term because of their potential and my firm belief that they are inevitably bound to trend upwards. And finally, what I will show you is AMD's result from yesterday.
AMD's result was truly disastrous. Why is that? All the stocks I tested are based on data from their listings up to 2021. Let's take a look at AMD's chart since its listing. What does the chart look like already? It is a complete mess. Of course, you could say that it trended upwards in the end. But what do you think?
The peak in 1979 After breaking out, it failed to rise significantly and has been continuously declining to lows in 1990, 2008, 2012, and 2015. In other words, it failed to rise and instead traded sideways for several years—for 36 years. Taking this data into account, the Monte Carlo simulation showed such disastrous results for a 15-year long-term investment in AMD.
As such, there are many variables when it comes to individual stocks. However, for index- tracking stocks like Upro, TQQ, and S2XL, even if one company fails, another can cover for it. Furthermore, with indices, if the future of a company in the portfolio seems bleak, the portfolio is restructured. This saves me the trouble of having to find and invest in other companies one by one.
That is impossible with individual stocks. That is why they trade sideways for decades, repeating large fluctuations, and the system also tells me that even investing in this stock for 15 years would not yield significant results. Moreover, I invest in indices precisely because my ability to analyze companies is not exceptional.
Even if indices are a bit slow, eventually Since it generates profit, I hope your questions have been answered. If you have any further questions, please leave them in the comments. I will conduct another test after some time and upload a video for you. If you found today's video helpful, please like, subscribe, and turn on notifications. Thank you.
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