저자: 미국주식사는일기 · 한국인
요약 보기
3배 레버리지 ETF(TQQQ·SOXL)는 장기 적립투자로 승리할 수 있다고 주장. 나스닥100 2배 QLD 대비 3배 TQQQ의 복리 효과로 수익이 훨씬 크다고 설명. 다만 변동성 끌림으로 하락장에서는 손실이 누적되며, 평단가 기준으로 75% 하락한 현재에도 10년 이상 장기 투자하면 수익이 가능하다고 봄. 2022년 7월 시점 영상으로 직접적 가격 예측보다는 장기 견해 위주.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is the US Stock 3 Season 1 Missile Tip, hoping that the stocks I buy will sell out like a B. There are many people who say that long-term investment in the two 3x leverage ETFs, CQ and SX, guarantees victory. Of course, I feel the same way. I know that many of you like 3x leverage ETF products, not just CQ and SX.
I like them quite a bit, too. Simply put, CQ is a product where if the price rises by 1%, the price goes up by 3%. I hear there is a 5x product for CQ, but honestly, no matter how much I lose my mind, I do n't think I could handle that. If you look at CQ and SX, they are products that have delivered 100x returns over the past 10 years.
If you look at past charts and think, "If I invest for 10 years, 100x returns will be a breeze," or "I can definitely do 10-year dollar-cost averaging," and approach investing with that mindset without any study, you will get crushed like in this year's market. It will ruin not only your account but your mental state as well.
I have told you just one thing clearly. This is short-term... This is a story based on what I saw and when I did n't practice dollar-cost averaging. When I upload videos about doing everything necessary for long-term investment in new products, I receive a lot of comments from people who seem to be trying to teach me, even though I only have about 700 subscribers.
The most common one is volatility clinging. They ask, " Look, it's a monster in a happy market, oh, it's melting, how do you go about failing? Why do you have to drag other people into this?" This is simply because these people view 3x leverage from a very short-term perspective. I would like to explain what can happen when we invest with 3x leverage without individual investors, and why dollar-cost averaging is necessary to overcome it.
First, let's look at the past chart of TQM and compare it with QLD and Q, which track the Star Pack with two components. Let's examine the chart at the peak point late last year. First, let's look at the past chart of TQM and compare it with QQ and Q, which track the Nasdaq 100 with 2x leverage. Let's examine the chart at the peak point late last year.
Q is Over the more than 20 years from its listing in 1999 until this year, QLD has shown a 650 8% increase compared to its listing date. QLD was listed in 2006 and has shown a 3842 2% increase over 15 years, while PQ has shown a 17700 82% increase over approximately 10 years. Clearly, this is not simply a matter of a 1x multiplier or a 3x difference.
Naturally, due to the nature of stocks where the power of compound interest is at play, they cannot move at the exact same rate. The simple application of a 1x multiplier for two generations only lasts for a single day; from then on, the axiom applies. To put it simply, if my investment of 1 million won causes the NASDAQ 100 index to rise by 3%, the prices become 1,030,000 won, 1,060,000 won, and 1,090,000 won, respectively.
If it rises by another 3% the next day, the prices become 1,060,000 won, 1,120,000 won, and 1,190,000 won. It is rising. Ah, this is the difference when the stop-loss level rises by 3% for two consecutive days. The QQ 3x leverage ETF is the one demonstrating this level of tremendous volatility. As the magic of compounding is applied in this way, TQ has brought much larger returns compared to the other two stocks.
To be precise, this is not because the TQ peak is simply a 3x leverage ETF; the most important factor is that it has been performing well on the Nasdaq. It is indeed a product sufficient to maximize profits if you ride the bull market. Although it is such a good product, it appears that way because we are looking at data that summarizes positive results.
So, what are the issues we intend to examine today? The most representative one is the volatility click phenomenon mentioned earlier. This refers to the phenomenon where price value gradually declines over the long term as volatility increases. Since the greater the volatility, the larger the price betting amount, the volatility click effect occurs more significantly in high-leverage products.
Conversely to the favorable situation mentioned earlier, if Nasdaq experiences a 3% drop for two consecutive days in a bear market, conversely, the three products are 940,000 won and 890,000 won, respectively. It becomes 840,000 won. For an investor investing in TQ, the account had already risen by 15%.
In this state, if the NAS rises by 3%, the Q becomes 970,000 won, and the 940,000 won CQ becomes 915,000 won. No matter how much it moves three times, even if it offers a high return of 9% to compensate for the significant loss of principal, the return for us ultimately becomes lower than in the case of Q QLD investment.
In the end, this means that if it moves, my account converges into negative territory. It essentially means it will decline in the afternoon. Even if we initially ride the bull market, if the stock price rises happily or a major correction like this year occurs, it means we will eventually wipe out all our profits and incur losses.
However, let's assume we have been doing dollar-cost averaging for 10 years. Then, where would the average cost be? I will not do it precisely using Excel or anything complicated. What I am discussing now regarding the Commercial Law is simply about the average cost, regardless of quantity. To explain simply: For nearly seven years leading up to 2017, TQ was below $6.
Let's simply calculate the average cost in increments of 6. The average for the two and three years was about $ 4, with a brief pause. Then, during the last two years of steep rise, if we take a slightly higher estimate, we reach the $45 level. If we simplify the calculation and take an average, the average cost is about $14.
The current stock price is around $25. Of course, investing in a highly volatile product like 3x leverage doesn't yield returns sufficient to compensate for the stress I experienced; naturally, it would have been better if the returns were higher. However, look at the current market. The TQ chart has already dropped by 75%.
Even with this drop, if you invest for the long term of over 10 years, it remains a source of profit. As I mentioned earlier, I will speak in terms of the average cost regardless of quantity. When the average cost—that is, the stock price—was $6 at 20,001, I could have bought and accumulated a much larger quantity.
If you think about it that way, the average cost will fall much further than the current dollar. Looking solely at the average cost, it is 6.3 times. You might only see this much, but if you consider the potential, this unit price is high enough to yield returns of 50 to 100 times. Naturally, looking at it in the short term, stock prices tend to move sideways and drift east and west, so I will likely get crushed.
However, from a long-term perspective, we can see that we can beat any market leader that comes our way. I don't know how much further the price will drop, but if it falls below the average price of $14 I mentioned earlier, you should just happily buy more, thinking, "This is lower than my average price." As you can see, even after the dot-com bubble, the answer has already been met with such a warm bow.
If you hadn't hesitated at every moment and had simply thought, "This is the cheapest time," and engaged in dollar-cost averaging, we would already be enjoying financial freedom. As such, long-term investment can sufficiently overcome the risks and downsides of new leverage. You can buy the top stock at a price lower than your average during a crash, and enjoy your insane profits soaring during a bull market.
Therefore, absolutely ignore typical sayings like "If it hits the dot-com bubble or Lehman Brothers, TQ will disappear, hehehe." Focus on your investment. Stick to your philosophy. I mean, while investing in a risky product like 3x leverage, do you think we can barely manage to think about something like that?
Even if we assume it really went bankrupt as the institutions claim, if you invested 100 million won, your gains would simply vanish. That is true. However, the potential profit from investing that 100 million won is infinite. We are not investing for short-term profits right now; we are investing with our grand future in mind—beyond 2030, 2035, and 2040.
If you assume that the US market has trended upward for over 100 years and hold onto that belief—with the firm conviction that the Nasdaq will naturally trend upward as well—you can definitely win. If you think the market won't trend upward, you absolutely must not invest in TQ. I want to prove that in 10 to 15 years, even knowing about the risks of 3x leverage ETFs, long-term dollar-cost averaging leads to victory.
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