저자: MissileTV · 한국인
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미국 증시가 전일 상승 전환했다고 보고, 은행주(UBS 전 CEO 복귀 소식)와 반도체·기술주(마이크론 실적 후 CEO 발언) 강세를 근거로 제시. 금리 동결 전망으로 국채금리 안정, 상승 추세 전환을 주장. 다만 다음날 GDP 확정치(2.7% 예상)와 금요일 지표가 추세 지속의 관건이라고 언급. 장기투자가 개인 투자자에게 유일한 수익 방법이라는 결론.
다듬은 글
Hello, this is Missile TV, reporting on the US stock market with the hope that the stocks I buy will skyrocket like missiles. Today was a day of significant gains for the US stock market for the first time in a while. The Dow Jones rose 1%, the S&P 500 1.42%, and the Nasdaq climbed a whopping 1.79%, showing a scale of gain rarely seen recently.
If you look at today's map, bank and tech stocks, which we focus on heavily, rose significantly together. Recently, the market tended to show a pattern where when one side rose, the other fell, but today was very different. The Fear & Greed Index, which had fallen below 25 just two weeks ago due to the highlighting of financial risks, has risen to 40 and is now in the fear zone.
This implies that the market has hit another bottom and is on the rise. Meanwhile, if you look at the S&P 500 map over the past year, it shows an overall downward trend; however, if you look at the performance over the last six months, unlike the bear markets we have experienced and felt, you can see that the stock prices of most major stocks have actually risen.
Personally, I believe that seeing this pattern indicates that the US stock market has definitely entered an upward trend. However, to maintain this trend... There are two extremely important points remaining, which I will explain further later in the video. What was the reason why most sectors were able to rise exceptionally today?
First, following the recent decision to acquire Credit Suisse, the need for organizational restructuring and reorganization arose, and UBS announced that it would recruit former CEO Sergio Ermotti for this purpose. In 2011, UBS suffered a loss of $2 billion due to the arbitrary trading of derivatives.
The background for his recruitment lies in the fact that Ermotti, who was the CEO at the time, overcame the crisis by implementing strong restructuring and adjusting management strategies. Major European banks rose across the board, driven by the return of a former CEO whose crisis response capabilities had already been proven, and by investors who felt that risks were continuing to subside.
Naturally, this momentum blew to the U.S., and it can be seen as having driven the rise in U.S. bank stocks today. Then, how were technology stocks able to rise? We can find the answer through Micron Technology's earnings announcement yesterday. As those of you who know are already aware, Micron Technology's earnings themselves...
It was a complete mess. However, as I have repeatedly mentioned, earnings announcements are not the end; the guidance and conference calls are what truly matter. First, Micron Technology reported revenue of $3.693 billion, a 50% drop, and recorded an operating loss for the second consecutive quarter, with this quarter's loss amounting to 3 trillion won.
However, following the earnings announcement, Micron executives mentioned that semiconductor inventory conditions are improving and highlighted the potential of artificial intelligence, a hot topic these days. Consequently, a sentiment began to emerge in the market that the semiconductor market had hit bottom.
In fact, the remarks by Micron CEO Sanjay Meurott, who expressed confidence in long-term semiconductor demand, had a significant impact on the market. As a result, SXL, which tracks the Philadelphia Semiconductor Index at a 3x leverage, rose by over 9% today alone. Tech stocks, which are inextricably linked to the semiconductor sector, also rose in tandem, with TQQ surging by nearly 5.5%.
Amidst these positive catalysts, what further bolstered the upward trend was the stability of Treasury yields. Recently, Neil Kajkari and James Bullard Despite extreme hawks like the Governor conducting interviews following the FMC, the market is no longer shifting its forecast for interest rate hikes.
This is particularly true even though Governor Bullard hinted that rates should be raised more aggressively. Consequently, as of today, market forecasts on PadWatch for the next FMC remain unchanged, predicting a rate freeze. This is impacting the yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury bond. It can be interpreted that as these two bond yields, which had experienced massive fluctuations over the past two weeks, stabilized, the stock market also stabilized, naturally attracting capital and driving the market up.
Meanwhile, a hot topic regarding AI was reported today. The non-profit Future of Life Institute released a public statement opposing the development of cutting-edge AI systems. The statement reportedly bears the signatures of over 1,280 people, including Elon Musk. The statement argued that cutting-edge AI could represent a significant shift in the history of life on Earth and asserted that powerful AI systems should only be developed when there is a conviction that their effects are positive and risks can be managed.
Until safety protocols are established, general AI development in all AI laboratories should be minimized. It was argued that measures must be suspended for six months, and if immediate implementation is impossible, government intervention is necessary. However, there are also forecasts that this could have a negative impact on the overall U.S.
market. While six months may not be a long time, there are concerns that during this period, China, which is outside the U.S. sphere of influence, could continue its AI development, potentially leading to a shift in global hegemony to China. Given that major players have joined this trend, this could serve as a negative investment signal for AI-related stocks for some time, so you must closely monitor their price movements.
Currently, based on the Nasdaq index, the market clearly shows signs of a trend reversal. The most important reason is the market's prediction that interest rate hikes will no longer be able to be implemented as strongly. To further solidify this upward trend, there are two crucial factors that need to be released well: the GDP growth figures to be announced tomorrow and the figures to be released on Friday.
The current U.S. market is no longer paying significant attention to minor indicators related to inflation, such as wages or unemployment claims. For instance, although the initial unemployment claims released last week were lower than expectations and the previous week, they failed to have a significant impact on the market.
Financial indicators are more important than inflation. The market, which places greater importance on the possibility of an economic recession due to risks, will influence tomorrow's market after checking GDP indicators, which can confirm whether a recession is actually imminent. Although GDP is quarterly data, it is released three times a month: a preliminary figure, a provisional figure, and a final figure.
The provisional figure for the previous month came out at 2.7%, and the final figure is to be released tomorrow. Since the final figure is currently also predicted to be 2.7%, if this figure turns out lower than 2.7%, there is a high possibility that the market will use the recession crisis as an excuse to cause a significant drop in stock prices.
However, that does not mean inflation can be taken lightly either; it proves that there is nothing to lose. I also attempted to become rich through timing trading while trading Korean stocks for several years, but it was absolutely impossible. I will conclude this video by stating that the only way for the 99.999% of ordinary people like me to make money through stocks is long-term investment.
I would like to express my gratitude to Q&A for signing up for the Snack Membership this time. Members can access additional information, such as periodic book and account sharing, live broadcasts, and various news, through member-only videos. If you ask questions in the membership-exclusive group chat, I create videos based on those inquiries.
I also share the New York information I use through the membership group chat and the community. I ask for your continued interest. Thank you so much for taking the time to watch my videos. As someone who has taken on the role of a mental guardian for long-term US stock investing, I will stay with you until the end so that you do not regret your long-term investments.
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