저자: StoicFinance진행자 · 외국인
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Bill Ackman의 과거 행동(Herbalife 공매도, 2020년 코로나 공매도 후 발언, 2021년 금리인상 주장, 2022년 우크라이나 개입 촉구)을 비판적으로 분석한 영상이다. 결론: 영상은 Ackman이 공매도 포지션을 가진 상태에서 시장에 영향을 주는 발언을 해 이익을 얻으려 했다고 주장한다. 2020년 코로나 국면: Ackman은 호텔·항공·자동차·외식 산업의 붕괴를 경고하며 CEO들에게 바이백 중단과 신용한도 인출을 권했고, 시장이 바닥을 찍은 뒤 공매도를 청산해 수일 내 약 20억 달러를 벌었다고 설명한다. 힐튼 등 호텔주가 0 수준으로 떨어질 것이라는 주장이 언급된다. 2021년 금리 국면: Ackman은 연준의 금리 인상과 강세장 종료를 주장했고, 자신의 장기 보유 주식 포트폴리오를 보호하려고 금리 상승 헤지 포지션을 공개했다고 영상은 언급한다. 영상은 이를 이해충돌 사례로 본다. 2022년 우크라이나 국면: Ackman은 노플라이존 설정과 나토 개입을 주장했고, 영상은 이것이 전쟁 리스크로 인한 밀·에너지·니켈 가격 상승과 기업 실적 악화에 따른 주가 하락으로 이어질 수 있다고 분석한다. 출연자 전망: 영상 속 Ackman은 장기적으로 시장이 악화될 것이라고 봤으나, 구체적 자산별 1~3개월 가격 예측 발언은 명시되지 않는다. 리스크: 영상은 Ackman의 의도에 대한 추정이 많으며, 그의 주장 자체의 옳고 그름보다 동기를 의심하라고 권한다. 영상 후반부는 스폰서 광고(뉴스레터, 대체투자 플랫폼, 스테이블코인 이자)다.
다듬은 글
bill ackman is an investor who's been mired in controversy for as long as i can remember it started with a vicious short attack on the company herbalife where ackman built up a huge secret short position against the company and then outed them as a pyramid scheme that ought to be illegal in an attempt to tank the share price and make himself billions funnily enough in that endeavor he failed but that wouldn't stop him from trying something similar again come 2020 and the onset of the coveted pandemic and bilakman once again built up a monstrous short position selecting the companies that he believed would tank the hardest as the world shut down then he went live on cnbc and told the world that hell is coming that this is the end and that every person ought to sell every stock they own and that even then this could still be the end to be perfectly honest i can't simply explain just how manipulative this was and the only way for you to really understand is to hear it for yourself but first a really quick thank you to the daily upside for sponsoring this video visit the link in the description to learn more i do right now though want to bring in bill ackman on the phone he took to twitter today to urge the president to take more dramatic measures to stop the spread of the virus bill i thank you for joining us today thank you scott a number of ideas you put forth i'm going to read one of them for our viewers to start mr president the only answer is to shut down the country for the next 30 days and close the borders you say tell all americans that you are putting us on an extended spring break at home with family keeping only essential services open the government pays wages until we reopen i know from our conversations that you have been worried for some time how did it manifest today with these tweets and going public maybe just a little bit of context you know i'm an optimist um but beginning in i don't know late january i was getting increasingly bearish and i woke up with a nightmare but now you know take a look at hilton stock we're a major shareholder of hilton hilton is the canary in the coal mine this is an incredibly well capitalized amazing dominant global company that actually doesn't know many hotels it just collects royalties down from like 120 to 50.
okay it's going to zero okay along with every other hotel company in the world you know park hotels and resorts this you know stocks down from 33 to four this is a spin off from hilton why is it down from 33 to 4 because every hotel is going to be shut down in the country everyone what will happen is you know the hotel industry and the restaurant industry will go bankrupt first boeing is you know on the brink okay boeing will not survive without a government bailout okay so look at airline industry auto industry restaurant industry hotel industry yeah so i called the ceos of a number of our companies okay and told them to my concerns okay the companies i'm we're closest to and to not stop the buyback programs the husband resources to call the pull down draw down their credit lines because hell is coming so the markets crashed as they looked to ackman as an authority and when they bottomed ackman exited his short positions and bought back into the markets and made himself a cool two billion dollars in a matter of days now he understandably got some flack for this but he apparently had no remorse as come late 2021 bilakman started doing something that seemed awfully familiar to an awful lot of people he started tweeting about the chaos that the u.s economy was about to face and he made it clear that the only way for the economy to survive was for interest rates to be hiked for monetary policy to titan and for capital markets to accept that the bull run was over coincidentally once again he had taken out massive short positions against what basically amounted to the u.s economy as a whole now if that was all this was tweets about the chaos that might be on its way then maybe there wouldn't have been such a huge problem but the issue is that ackman is a man of authority when he speaks people listen and to make matters worse bilakman was literally speaking to the new york federal reserve some of the people who influence and decide on how interest rates should be set once again it seemed ackman had taken out a short position and then used his influence every ounce of it that he could to ensure that the markets moved in the right direction and in the process make himself billions of dollars now before i go any further let me quickly tell you about today's video's sponsor the daily upside if you are struggling to find crisp unbiased financial news the daily upside may be the solution to your problem the daily upside is a free business and investing email newsletter that over 280 000 people subscribed to myself included it was founded by a team of financial professionals with the intention of providing clarity and context on the events shaping the business world every weekday they deliver a morning brief followed by more detailed stories that are shaping the business world it's become something that i read every morning as it's informative witty and not dumbed down they go beyond the headlines and provide real analysis on the most important news of the day recently they had a piece about the russian invasion of ukraine and the implications that could have for the insurance market that could cost companies tens of billions of dollars whether you are a financial professional or just looking to get a jump start on the news move in the markets the daily upside is the perfect solution it's totally free to sign up and they send you one information filled email every morning as someone who looks to stay on top of the news to create videos like this one i can't recommend it enough sign up using the link down below in the description now apparently the call for the fed to raise interest rates wasn't enough for ackman because more recently he went one step further and he started advocating for us involvement in the war in ukraine now to be perfectly honest if i covered literally everything he said then we would be here for over an hour just reading his tweets so i'll pick the ones which best encapsulate his view and then link to the rest of the threads so you can see them all if you like so what exactly did ackman say well on the 6th of march just over a week after russia invaded ukraine ackman came out and tweeted this in january 2020 i had nightmares about the potential for a pandemic but everyone seemed to think i was crazy i am having similar nightmares now world war iii has likely started already but we have been slow to recognize it putin has invaded ukraine and it is not going well for russia nato and biden have refused to create a no-fly zone and have said that we will not enter the war to defend ukraine yet biden has said that if russia attacks a nato country we will intervene by setting a hard line based only on nato membership doesn't this give putin carp launch to invade and subjugate sweden finland cyprus ireland austria malta and switzerland and the rest of the former soviet union as a thought experiment ask yourself a few questions what if instead of using rockets to kill civilians putin used gas chambers would that change our willingness to intervene why should it matter what type of weapon is used to kill civilians in our determination of whether to intervene is there a threshold number that must die before we decide to do more when i was a child and learned about the holocaust i asked my grandparents why they didn't do more to save millions of people from genocide during world war ii they didn't have very good answers what will we say to our grandchildren when they ask us why we allow tens or hundreds of thousands or millions of ukrainians to die i hope we are all around to answer these questions we need to reconsider a no-fly zone and further nato military intervention because of the ukrainian's capable military we fortunately don't need to send more troops to help them succeed basically bill ackman laid out a moral case by which nato and the us in particular should create a no-fly zone above ukraine and shoot down any russian aircraft that violate that order now we are not here to debate the morality of this war in ukraine or the morality of western involvement or lack thereof we're simply here to talk about what ackman has just done and what he laid out in those tweets was a justification for war with russia now prior to this ackman had already tried to sway public opinion here on the 28th of february by imploring biden to assist the ukrainians in every way possible he once again specifically called for western intervention calling upon president biden to send soldiers sailors airmen and marines in to stop the russian invasion he even went so far as to cite his friends in the u.s navy seals as people who wish they were there putting an end to this senseless war now again i'm not here to debate whether or not our soldiers want to be there and frankly i think bilakman is right about a lot of stuff here i personally have friends in the british armed forces and the mood there is exactly as ackman claims it is in the u.s it's full of soldiers who know just how much of an impact they could make if they were allowed to go to ukraine but they're being forced to stay at home and watch innocent civilians die the problem here is that akron's motives need to be considered and his past actions need to be considered as well we know for a fact that ackman has a history of building up short positions and then using his position as an authority on markets to ensure they move in the direction that profits him most we've seen it three times before with herbalife covert and then interest rate hikes as well we also know for a fact that ackman had short positions a few months ago on october the 29th ackman tweeted as we have previously disclosed we have put our money where our mouth is in hedging our exposure to an upward move in rates as we believe that a rise in rates could negatively impact our long-only equity portfolio he told us clear as day that he is sure american equities right there and since october the markets rose but then they started to fall and ackman is probably sitting around breaking even on his trades right now and he needs the market route to continue for his positions to become profitable what we have to ask ourselves is if the west involvement in ukraine became hot if we had jets in the sky and boots on the ground would markets rally on this news or would they enter a new market route well the reality is there are a lot of people saying we're already at war with russia and they're kind of right we're already in an economic war with russia and the impacts of that on the markets have been seen for almost two months now in short it's not good for asset prices almost one third of all wheat produced in the world comes from russia and ukraine now russia is unwilling to sell that wheat to us and ukraine is unable so the chances are we're about to see a famine take hold around the world which is bad for markets russia is also of course a major exporter of oil and natural gas and we've already seen energy prices skyrocket on the invasion of ukraine as it now seems clear that this trade between east and west balances on a knife edge but it isn't just energy prices that are on the rise steel prices in europe are at record highs nickel prices too and corporations in the west have almost unanimously agreed to stop operating in russia harming their bottom lines the markets or investors i should say obviously don't like this and it's bad for asset prices and to be perfectly honest i can't imagine that a full-blown war with western soldiers dying in ukraine would be any better is it so unreasonable to think that bilakman is capable of being so self-absorbed so corrupted by his next paycheck that his words his equivocations are based solely on crashing the market so his short positions win out we know for a fact that he's done this kind of thing before and while his position may have some moral backing while it may be a defendable position on its own when it comes to someone who seeks to profit off of the back of that position that moral high ground in my opinion at least goes out of the window the reality is here we really don't know what's going on inside bilakman's head but we do know that what he's calling for would be catastrophic for the markets and we know that he and his fund is positioned to profit if that is what happens with that knowledge we should be careful when listening to him that doesn't mean we ignore what he has to say or throw away his arguments based purely on who's making them but we should always try to dig a little deeper and see what other motives might be at play finally i want to give the daily upside one more thank you for partnering with us on this video if you haven't subscribed already click the link in the bio to receive their weekday and weekend edition absolutely free if you enjoyed this video then make sure to like and if you want more content like this then you get access to our discord loads of exclusive content like insight into my portfolio and dot io a site that allows you to buy which can be a great way to diversify your portfolio with non-market correlated assets is completely free to sign up so if that sounds interesting then make sure to check it out there's also a link in the description to block five you can also get nine percent interest on stable coins like ustc which is a far higher rate than you get from any savings account these days just make sure not to use tether thank you all for the support thanks for watching stay stoic until next time
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