저자: MeetKevin · 외국인
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블룸버그·댈러스 연은 보고서의 '러시아산 원유 공급 차질 시 경기침체 불가피' 주장을 반박. 국채 10년물 금리 하락, 나스닥 상승(QQQ +1.87%)을 근거로 시장은 무시 중이라 주장. 과거 유가 급등(2000년대 초, 2012~14, 2018) 때 경기침체가 없었다고 지적. 러시아산 원유가 제재 우회 경로로 시장에 여전히 유입되고 있으며, 이는 제재상 불법이 아니라고 설명. 사우디·UAE 증산 소극성, 미국 노동력 부족, 전략비축유 한계를 공급 문제로 언급. 경기침체 우려는 과장된 'FUD'라는 입장.
다듬은 글
I am absolutely getting tired of the FUD, man. I'm getting so tired of the FUD. I'm going to break this crap down for you and I'm give you my opinion on this because when Bloomberg starts running stories like this, recession is unavoidable without Russian oil. Dallas Fed study says, "Oh no, the Fed is now telling us about a recession coming." What?
It certainly grabbed my attention. It didn't surprise me that you had Bloomberg picking up on FUD, but hey, you know what? That's why you get the beautiful opportunity of of course listening to me give you the perspective that I think is useful to have and of course letting you know that you could sign up for the we got to take a dive into this.
Before we take a dive into this though, it is also worth noting what the 102 treasury curve is doing because this is uh probably JPOW doesn't like it, but JPA doesn't like anything that says he's doing a bad job. So uh this is the 102 yield curve right now. Now, if we zoom all the way into March here, it's obviously fallen from the end of February all the way down to about 20.
Now, yesterday after JPAL started talking about, oh, nothing's holding us back from a 50 basis point hike in the market had some heart palpitations. We went down to about 18. Now, we're sitting about 20.4. Uh, break evens for inflation estimates are still quite elevated over here at about 3.6. This is the 5-year break even chart.
It's a problem, but honestly, more and more it just seems like uh the market, I mean, look at this. This is the NASDAQ. It's up at 356 right now. It's absolutely insane. We're almost at the 350 Fibonacci line over here. I'm sorry, the 50% Fibonacci retracement line, which is 361. Uh, it's really incredible.
I mean, the market is just totally brushing this off. I think we're up, 1.8%. Yeah, 1.87% on the QQQ. It's crazy. So, so why then are we getting this FUD? And is this FUD something that we should actually be worried about? Is this just a bare market rally? Is, you know, what is this nonsense? And does the Fed have a point here?
Well, you know me. I always like to go to the source. So, of course, uh this is not the source. This is not a primary source. This is a secondary source, right? Because they're referencing something else, right? And they talk about how without a resumption of Russian energy exports this year, according to the Dallas Fed, it might be difficult to avoid a recession, right?
Uh and they talk about how their comparisons to this and 1991 and how when we have prior oil peaks, we often see recessions and that this oil peak uh was was unexpected because originally we weren't going to sanction energy. But uh you know, unless we have some sort of uh sudden supply response, we're going to see some crazy demand destruction and that demand destruction is going to lead to a recession.
Look, entirely possible. Look, we had some crazy spending last year. Wouldn't surprise me for us to have some negative comps, especially at companies. But wait a minute, let's just isolate this in two ways. First, we're going to look at what the Fed actually said. And second, we're going to look at this chart, which is a little blurry up here.
We're going to just look at this right here. Okay, so their argument is that, hey, over here, this is the the n Oops, that's definitely not a highlighter. Uh, you go over here, there's your '9s crash, and look, oh no, spike led to red, which was crash, right? That's not great. Oh no, we had a little spike over here and then crash.
That's not good. That's that's, you know, also that's bad. Oh, and look at this massive oil price spike over here in 2008. That's not that's not good. Uh and then, oh no, look at where we are now. Big old spike, right? Okay, fine. I've heard it many times before. I've even said, hey, you know, it's not a good sign to have oil above 100 because of course it does increase fears of a recession specifically because of demand destruction, right?
The less people have to to spend on consumer goods like Nike stuff or Under Armour stuff or whatever. Even though Nike reported a great quarter, remember that was the end of last year, right? No, no Q1's forecast yet here. Uh, take a look at some other things that I've actually seen on this chart. Look at the green highlighting.
So, which I'm going to reiterate here with yellow. Look over here. Okay, so we had an increase in oil prices here, but that was kind of nominal, right? Okay, didn't have a recession there. Look at this. I mean, we sat here with this oil runup throughout the entire early half of the 2000s. We didn't have a recession.
And neither of these were oil induced. This over here was a tech bubble. This over here was a housing crisis. We had a massive oil price surge right here, 2012, 2014, this was a disaster. And it wasn't until uh we we started having a lot more fracking in the United States and rebuilding our oil production at home.
Imagine that. Uh, some of the cleanest oil in the world is in America. Jeez, fre. Anyway, uh, no recession. No recession here. A lot of people freaking out about going to be a double dip recession. Didn't have one. Didn't have one in 2018 either when oil spiked. Didn't have one. Had a little bit of a taper tantrum, but that's it.
No recession. Oh, no. Rates went up, but no recession. So, I don't know. I mean, looking at the chart, it seems a little overblown, but okay, fine. Let's go ahead and go into their actual research. All right. So, let's let's see what they say here. So, they talk about how Russia essentially has the potential of uh supplying 3 million barrels per day of petrol production within America.
And over here you've got Russian exports representing about 8% global petroleum exports excluding Russia about 92%. Okay, got it. And uh what we see here is that uh the Fed actually reports that one of the things that's happening right now is potentially even though this is illegal, trading houses are actually buying the Russian oil, storing it in Europe, and in the future they might just resell it out of Europe.
Basically gambling on that Russian oil, rebranding it, maybe slapping a different label on it and then introducing it into the market. Because the Fed here says recent data from a data aggregator, energy intelligence, says we we so far have not seen a full 3 million barrel per day of oil decline in markets.
So something's happening like this oil is still somehow making it to the markets even though uh you know generally this is frowned upon. I want to clarify uh it actually in according to these sanctions it is not prohibited under current sanctions. So oftentimes it's frowned upon sometimes it's even illegal.
In this case it is actually not. So I want to make that crystal clear. So the feds actually notice by the way I want to mention this. The fudster Bloomberg article did not mention anything about this potential 3 million barrels per day somehow still making it into the market. And I mean like let's be real, okay?
Let me just pretend I'm an oil baron here, okay? And I'm not. I'm not an oil baron. I'm sitting in an office with a freaking Hello Kitty cup and for some reason you decided to listen to me. I don't know why, but anyway. So, pretend we're an oil baron. We put our our oil baron hat on. We're like, Russian oil is tough to sell right now because a lot of countries aren't allowed to buy it.
Barus and China, they got a lot of Russian oil, but they got enough of it. So other countries like India are like, "hm, we'll buy your oil for a discount because hey, why would I buy the American crap at $100 per barrel if I could buy yours 30% off? It's like a Black Friday sale. 30% off. Huh, that's a good deal.
That's like That's like getting 41% off on my courses on building your wealth linked down below with a coupon code expiring in 3 days. Why would I not buy as many of those courses I mean barrels of oil as possible? It makes sense. that somehow the free market still seems to work, especially since it says here buying oil for storage is not prohibited.
Now, probably buying Russian oil is probably illegal, right? That's where there's going to be some confusion, but come on. Like, if you can figure out how to skirt this and make lots of money, you know, you buy it for 70 and resell it for 100. I mean, come on. Anyway, there are some differences between Russian oil.
It's a heavier grade versus the lighter kind of shale uh that that we have over here in America. That's okay. There are some some differences, but some it seems like some of this is still getting into the market, which is actually a good thing, right? Uh and there's also talk about maybe Europe finally getting off their behinds and uh not only are they working deals with other countries like Germany is has just announced a large deal uh for liqufied uh petrole liqufied natural gas, I'm sorry.
And they're making new deals all over the world. Uh other countries are coming out and suggesting uh whatever support they can. Uh there's also pressure that maybe Germany and Europe will be able to finally bring some of their coal and nuclear plants online again to reduce their reliance on natural gas.
So there are ways that we can offset the impact of Russia without having to go in a recession, right? Especially since a lot of that Russian oil is literally again between us probably still getting into the market. They do talk about some issues though. They talk about the fact that Saudi Arabia is not interested in increasing their supply.
The UA UAE is not in interested in uh increasing their supply. These are OPEC members, right? And this is a problem. If if some people or some countries are not interested in providing additional supply uh then then obviously you have a problem because eventually you need this extra supply. I think one of the reasons we're seeing this lack of supply issue is uh the following.
Likewise, producers in the United States are constrained by three things. One, supply chain bottlenecks. So, it's harder to actually pump more because you don't have the products to do so. You have labor shortages. We talked about this in a video the other day. We got 12,500 less oil workers in America than we've ever had before.
This is a big problem because how are you supposed to bring more pipe, you know, rigs online? Assume 100 people per rig. That's a lot of rigs. That's 120 rigs in America we can't bring online because we just don't have the workers for that anymore. And how many people right now are going to college trying to get a degree in oil pumping or or whatever you would get it in, right?
So that's a problem. A good news maybe is that uh you got Biden. Biden's great at striking deals apparently. I probably not. I don't know. Uh negotiating with Iran and Venezuela, which is something that a lot of Republicans are obviously decrying because like dude, come on. Like why don't we just pump more here?
Hey, ever heard of the Keystone XL? You remember that remaining uh you know extension leg of the Keystone pipeline? Whatever. Uh and then of course we had the strategic oil reserve which even if we released all of it, it would help us for about 3 months offset all of uh Russia's oil. And so you you've got a lot of this what I call noise.
You got noise about Iran, Venezuela, OPEC, and production in America, reducing reliance on oil and natural gas in Europe and Germany and and partnerships and this that and they finish this whole piece with if Russian energy exports are off market for the remainder of 2022, a global economic downturn seems unavoidable because of demand destruction, right?
Not enough money circulating to keep our numbers higher than where they were last year. So, we have a recession with two quarters of negative negative GDP in a row, right? But I think the big thing that is entirely missed by Bloomberg and doesn't even show up in the bottom line on this Fed economist piece here, which bothers me, is literally what they said upfront right here.
What changed is much of the Russian oil that continues to be exported from the black Baltic and Black Sea ports at steep discounts is not delivered to refiners. Instead, trading houses are buying it and putting it into commercial storage in Europe from where it may be potentially resold, bypassing financial sanctions.
In other words, when the energy intelligence group tells us for some reason we're actually not seeing that 3 million barrel per day of oil decline is probably because it's actually still finding its way into the market. That Russian oil is still making it in. So sucks for the point of view of trying to sanction Russia, but in terms of avoiding a recession, that's what I'd be watching.
I would be watching the fact that this oil somehow still makes it to the market and all the other crap for me for now is just noise and I'm also keeping my fingers crossed on a negotiated deal with Ukraine. So, we'll see what happens. This is something I'm keeping an eye on and this gives me optimism.
I like this a lot. I'm going to look one more time really quickly just at their conclusion here. You could go, you could click out of this video already. There are three main implications for the global economy. First, Russia's invasion of Ukraine will have far-reaching implications for renewables. Of course, we know this.
food, fertilizer, wheat. We know that uh the food prices, supply chain disruptions caused by Ukraine, blah blah blah, sustained inflationary pressures. We know that uh the uh oil embargo against Russia may cause a political response in Russia. Okay, big deal. Uh and again, third, the bulk of Russian if the bulk of Russian energy exports is off market for the remainder of 2022.
Well, so far so far based on the data they gave here themselves is that that if is actually not happening right now. Yet, of course, you've got Doomberg running these headlines. I need a Tesla tequila. I'm freaking tired of this.
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