저자: TomHeavey · 외국인
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결론: 마이클 버리가 최근 SEC 공시로 5개 종목을 신규 매수했으나, 영상은 개인 투자 조언이 아니며 종목별 가격 방향 예측은 명시되지 않음. 공시 개요: 버리(Scion Asset Management)가 신규 매수한 5개 종목을 소개하고, 과거 공시 기준 포트폴리오 상위 보유 종목을 함께 설명함. 마이클스(Michaels): 북미 최대 공예·장식용품 소매업체. 약 325만 주를 5,300만 달러에 매수(주당 약 1.29달러 수준 표기). UPS 연계 픽업 서비스로 최저점 대비 88% 반등. 디스커버리(Discovery): 1분기 매출 1% 감소(26.8억 달러). 광고 매출 비중 54%로 광고 둔화 리스크 언급. 저비용 콘텐츠 라이브러리와 강한 재무상태가 장점으로 제시. 35만 주를 680만 달러에 매수(주당 약 19.44달러). 보잉(Boeing): 채권시장 얼어붙었으나 연준 유동성 공급 후 250억 달러 채권 발행 성공. 항공산업 회복은 수년 걸릴 수 있다고 언급. 6만 주를 890만 달러에 매수(주당 약 149달러). 페이스북(Facebook): 원격근무 전환, 리브라 2.0 등 금융서비스 확장 언급. 재무구조가 강해 단기 위험은 낮다는 평가. 6만 주를 1,000만 달러에 매수(주당 약 167달러). 잭인더박스(Jack in the Box): 미국 서부 중심 패스트푸드 체인. 현금 약 1.69억 달러, 배당·자사주 매입 중단. 30만 주를 1,050만 달러에 매수(주당 약 35달러). 기존 상위 보유: 1위 Corvo(발음 표기 불확실), 3위 GameStop 등 언급. 리스크: 공시 기반 포트폴리오는 실시간이 아니며 보유 비중 변동 가능. 현재 주가는 매수가와 비교해 별도 확인 필요.
다듬은 글
so Michael burry who you might remember from the Big Short as the guy who first predicted the 2008 mortgage crisis has just invested into five stocks in this video I'll be revealing what these five stocks are and sharing his entire portfolio so you and me can learn off arguably one of the great modern investors firstly though this is not financial advice and I'm gonna go ahead and say early on I am nowhere near smart enough to be able to pick out individual winners within the stock market that's why for these videos I tend to turn it over to people who are much smarter than myself people like Michael burry who clearly are capable of doing this and then I try to present it to you so let's get into it so burry is the manager of scion asset management and while it would be great if they could simply post their portfolio live and update it online unfortunately as a private fund this is not how it works but because they do have to file with the SEC on a regular basis every now and then we do get a glimpse into what their portfolio is and if we compare that with the data they files beforehand we can also see which stocks that they have bought between these two time periods so that's what's happened in the past week they have filed with the SEC and they've added five stocks to their portfolio these are the stocks that we're running through in this video just before we get into that I'd like to say this video took quite a long time to research and even longer to record in fact I'm on you wouldn't even believe it but to the 24th minutes of recording because I took about 30 goes to do that intro and I'm really not very good on camera so if you wouldn't mind like in the video that would be greatly appreciated now let's get into it let's talk about this first stock the first stock is the Michael's company this was founded in 1973 and it is North America's largest provider of arts crafts decoration items and everything within this kind of niche as we can see from the filing that you should see on the screen now they have bought three point two five million shares for five three million dollars but that works out to $1.29 in the number of hedge funds including the company within their portfolio the stock has also rebounded 88 percent from its all-time low after announcing a UPS collaboration basically this allows customers to order items for pickup at UPS doors so in other words as they are a consumer facing shop with everything going on with all of the social distancing it's very difficult to continue operating but by working with UPS they are able to introduce socially distance shopping which is a weird thing to be saying in the first place but this is the new strange reality that we all live in now I'd recommend that you go away and research this company more thoroughly as I said at the beginning I am NOT someone who is smart enough to be able to analyze whether a stock is a good individual investment I'm trying to present what Michael burry has clearly analyzed and the research that he's put together has led him to make this decision the next investment and the fourth largest in size was in the company discovery they are a mass media company owning the likes of Animal Planet and the Discovery Channel and they were founded in 1985 as we can see he purchased 350,000 shares for a total of 6.8 million dollars and it works out to $19 44 cents per share in q1 2020 discovery had a 1% decline in their revenue to two point six eight billion why just 1% well apparently it didn't incur significant disruptions over the course of q1 with everything going on in the world however they are expecting this to change and bear in mind that 54% of their revenue in 2019 came from advertising which is likely to be hit hard soon so as this ad revenue declines the profit that the company makes is also likely to decline the good news for the company is they're able to produce low-cost contents such as non scripted and reality programming in fact they have 300 hours of content in their library versus 36 hours for Netflix yet Netflix is cost of revenue was 3 times higher at twelve point four four billion so as we cover recently with Warren Buffett in Airlines we know the businesses that might succeed in these tough times are the ones who can reduce their costs as we know a company is simply an entity that spends a certain amount of money and they make a certain amount of money they have costs and they have income well with everything going on in the world so the income is likely to drop for the vast majority of companies companies such as Airlines who can't reduce their costs as a result are likely to struggle but the ones which can reduce their costs could find that they could remain profitable in this tough time or simply not lose as much money as other companies because discovery produced a lot of relatively cheap content they can pull back on the amount they're producing which is going to lower the costs but at the same time because they're already producing a lot they'll still be making enough that they can generate income whereas other companies may find this more difficult if they have a higher cost per show they'll be faced with a dilemma do they cut back on the quality of shows or do they begin producing less shows per month because viewers are unlikely to be happy either way and discovery have something incredibly important and that is a strong balance sheet many investors would argue that the balance sheet is the most important thing right now when analyzing a company it's always important but in these times arguably even more so for those who don't know a balance sheet is basically a calculation of the things that the company owns - the things that it owes to someone else so with everything going on companies are likely to make less money if you have a strong balance sheet maybe you have a lot of money in reserve maybe you have a lot of assets you can sell or maybe you just don't owe a lot of people money well then you can likely sustain your business through the tough times however if you have a bad balance sheet maybe you don't have enough cash on the side or maybe you owe a lot of cash to another company then when times get tough your balance sheet isn't likely to carry you through to the other side so when it comes to discovery as of March 2019 they had one point four five billion dollars in cash and they did Oh 607 million in short-term debt plus to be fair 15-point to 7 billion in long-term debt but this was spread out over 29 years meaning there averaged 600 million dollars per year they also have two billion in untapped credit facility if liquidity is needed a third company and our third largest investment is Boeing they were founded on July 15th 1916 and they design and manufacturer airplanes satellite equipment telecommunication and things in this area burry announced that he had bought 60,000 shares for a total of eight point nine million dollars working out to 149 dollars per share according to recent research they actually went through a very difficult time struggling to raise money with the bond market pretty much non-existent the Fed stepped in and introduced liquidity to the bond markets and then Boeing were able to sell a twenty five billion dollar bond and for those who don't know selling of twenty five billion dollar bond is another way of saying getting given a twenty five billion dollar loan so their balance sheet didn't look particularly good before this but now with a twenty five billion dollar loan they're unlikely to go out of business any time soon and that should sustain them for a very long time in fact with their relatively high work force the US government is likely to continue supporting them with Trump even saying we can't let anything happen to Boeing now of course they are working closely with the aviation industry which has taken a huge hit in recent times and may take many years to recover to its previous peaks but overall Boeing do appear to be in a relatively financially sound situation the fourth investment and burries second-largest on this list was into Facebook founded on February 4 2004 they are the world's largest social media platform they specialise in harvesting and selling our data okay joking kind of as we can see buried purchased 60,000 shares for a total investment of 10 million dollars and that works out to 167 dollars per share now there's a few interesting updates with Facebook recently one of which relates to their shift to a more remote workforce this is something that we've seen across many different tech companies with the likes of Shopify for example saying that they are going to transition to a permanent remote workforce Facebook are embracing this - but with a slight caveat they've said that they're probably likely to pay people less money if they live in Cheaper cities which kind of makes economic sense but at the same time why should you get paid less because you live somewhere cheap but you do the exact same job as someone who lives in New York for example it seems like a bit of a weird concept another interesting development relates to the Libra project and of course the cryptocurrency sector so the Libra whitepaper 2.0 has been released recently they've moved away from having a basket of currencies and instead of focusing more on having individual fiat currencies for that country so the US would have the US dollar the UK would have the Great British Pound etc this highlights their shift into financial services which could be extremely profitable if they're successful because the margins in financial services are much greater than the margins in something like social media again the balance sheet is important and Facebook have built up a very strong balance sheet in fact they've recently even bought a fee for four hundred million dollars as a demonstration of how strong that balance sheet is so even if there are tough times to come Facebook should be able to sustain themselves for a very long time and as a result are less in threat in the short term based on everything happening the final investment and burries largest was in to jack-in-the-box they are a fast food restaurant mostly serving the west coast of the United States they were founded on February 21st 1951 and I'll be honest I've never actually heard of them which may come as a surprise if you're an American viewer but as far as I'm aware there aren't any in the UK they are primarily in the US mostly in the west coast so burry managed to pick up 300,000 shares for a total investment of 10.5 million hence it's the largest of the five and this averages out to $35 per share when it comes to investing Warren Buffett has often spoken about going and testing the product for yourself unfortunately as there aren't any shops in the UK I wouldn't be able to do that but I'm keen to hear what you guys think let me know in the comments if they're a great store in your opinion or not so much from what I can see they look kind of like a balance between McDonald's and KFC both of which I'm a pretty big fan of so I think I would be a fan when it comes to the financial side of things they have approximately one hundred and sixty nine million dollars in cash so they have quite a strong balance sheet to sustain themselves they've also cancelled or suspended all dividends and share buybacks now this may sound kind of obvious right surely every company is suspending dividends and share buybacks with everything going on surely you want to keep your money to yourself as a business and sustain yourself and not try to give it to your shareholders that will come in the future once you get the business through the rocky patches well the truth is a lot of companies sadly are continuing to issue dividends and carrying out share buybacks perhaps they've underestimated the severity of everything that's going on or the length of time that this may continue but we know that burry is someone who tends not to underestimate the bad times and he maybe sees their balance sheet and their approach to things as a defensive stance which could be good with everything going on now let's look at a few of the largest holdings in Berry's portfolio because we've discussed his five recent purchases but he also holds other shares in his portfolio and for investors out there looking for opportunities well these could be quite interesting for you like I say do your own research because this is really just a starting point but if you're looking for something interesting well three of those companies I've mentioned are now in his largest five holdings jack-in-the-box is second Facebook is fourth and Boeing is fifth but position number one and three we haven't discussed yet number one is Corvo I think don't hate on me for that pronunciation and number three is GameStop I'm actually gonna leave his portfolio on the screen now with a company name on the left-hand side so if you would like to pause the video at this point so you can scan and potentially drop down some of these names feel free to do so but we're gonna move on as I want to add a couple of very important points as I said at the beginning this is not a live updated portfolio unfortunately we will never get access to that the best that we get is a glimpse into his portfolio when he files with the SEC so that means a couple of things firstly the proportion of his holdings may have changed since the last filing so again this is an opportunity to learn about new companies but you have to apply your own research because it isn't a live portfolio that and these share prices of these companies has changed since his purchases as well thankfully we can calculate as I've been sharing throughout the price that he did purchase shares at because we know the total number of shares and we know the value when he purchased so you just divide the value by the number and you have the price per share but you have to analyze if these prices have changed if they've really increased 50 or more percent then maybe he views a stock very differently at this point in time if they've dropped maybe he also views it differently but in a good way maybe he would actually think this is a good opportunity because the price is falling either way you need to do your own research this video is really just a starting point and that's the whole thing always trying to get across it's the opportunity to learn about interesting companies from someone who like I say is arguably one of the great modern investors for spotting under seen opportunities I hope you've enjoyed this video if you have consider subscribing as I put our loft content like this and check out this video here as I think you'll like it thank you
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