저자: MartinArmstrong&MarcFaber · 외국인
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각국이 달러 외환보유고 동결 위험을 피하려 금을 늘리고 있으며, 금본위제나 고정환율은 지속 불가능하다는 주장. 정부 세금·규제 확대로 자본이 이탈하고 유럽은 부채 취약성으로 위기가 임박했다고 봄. 금과 은에 대한 장기 수요 증가를 전망하나 단기 직선 상승은 아니라고 언급.
다듬은 글
The gold standard is not going to work. None of this is going to work. First, the political system needs to be changed. The gold standard will collapse just like Bretton Woods. Well, I think Trump is trying to tell people in different countries to adopt the dollar. Try to defeat China and BRICS, etc.
If you keep your reserves, your foreign currency assets in US dollars in the US, you are vulnerable to expropriation or a freezing of your assets. So, if you're China or India, a country of considerable size, you ask yourself, " How do I maintain my foreign exchange reserves? " I put 100 million into gold.
It is very important that this person keeps the gold safe. And sure, nothing is certain. You understand? Trust in traditional financial systems is being challenged as nations reconsider where to store their wealth and how to protect their reserves. Concerns about debt, government intervention, and currency stability continue to push investors toward hard assets.
Martin Armstrong, a renowned economic analyst known for his long-term cycle analyses, and Marc Faber, a veteran investor recognized for his contrarian views, argue that major changes in global finance are forcing governments, institutions, and investors to reassess the role of currencies, sovereign debt, and precious metals in the coming years.
A growing concern is that countries holding large amounts of foreign exchange reserves may become increasingly vulnerable to geopolitical tensions and financial constraints. This has strengthened the arguments in favor of gold ownership among central banks and sovereign institutions. As confidence in fiat currencies fluctuates, capital gradually shifts towards assets perceived as being outside of political control.
If these trends continue, demand for gold could remain high while the diversification of global reserves accelerates. . Wall Street: Goldman Sachs moves its most profitable division to Florida. Boca Raton is basically going to become the new Wall Street. What Mandami really thinks he can do... You don't see it.
They don't understand. I mean, just look at California. You know, companies leave, Tesla, etc. So, what's the solution? Newsom says: " Oh, we'll impose exit taxes and punish them for leaving." Why don't they analyze why they're leaving in the first place? You know, to raise taxes even more and punish them for leaving.
Are they solving the problem? They're not doing it. It's simply a matter of how much money... When you give something to the government, in 1913 they paid income tax, okay? To pay for World War I. Look at the advertisements, look at the newspapers from back then. Oh, only the rich will pay. It won't be you.
World War II arrives and we all pay taxes, okay? We just went through an audit. Do they have employees on staff, so they don't have to charge them social security contributions? So , no, we don't have any employees on staff. I'm sorry . Pay $50,000 for an audit to prove I told the truth. Oh, okay, fine.
You know nothing. Thank you. I mean, this is the United States . I have to spend money on an audit, go through an audit, it cost me a lot of money to do all this to prove that what I just said is true, you know? Income tax, you know, always sounds good. We're going to tax the rich. I need to know what you 're doing, because how do I know you 're not rich?
So you need to know everything you're doing. You know, that's why direct taxes were prohibited in the Constitution, because they turn us into servile economic slaves of the government. They need to know everything we do. And now, all I've heard for years is that we wouldn't have budget deficits if everyone paid what they're supposed to pay.
They sincerely assume that we are all criminals. We all lie. Nobody pays what they are supposed to pay. And if they create this vision in their minds, we would have no deficit. I told them, "I don't care," and I've told them to their faces, "I don't care if they double what they receive, they will still have a deficit because they always spend more than they have." And that's why people, you know, I tell people, "Look, they say, 'Oh, you're against the gold standard.' I told them, 'The gold standard isn't going to work.'" None of this is going to work.
First they have to change the political system. The gold standard will collapse, just like Bretton Woods. They fixed gold at $35, sounds good, but they didn't stop creating, you know, creating money. Come on. As I said, a three-year-old with a pocket calculator might think this is going to go bankrupt.
I mean , it's not, you know, Nobel Prize-winning science. And this is the problem. No...Politicians have lost their way in running. And I want to run for Congress, vote for me. I'll give you a free car and a lollipop. How do I pay for that? It cannot be a fixed exchange rate, it cannot be a gold standard or anything like that.
OK? I need to create more money to make that promise a reality; I need to bribe you. It's not like saying: vote for me because I'll do better than that guy. It's not going to happen. Vote for me and I'll give you this. So, until we fundamentally change the political system, it's not going to happen.
Well, I think Trump is trying to tell people in different countries to adopt the dollar. It's about trying to defeat China and the BRICS, etc. But, you know, it all comes down to money, and I think they don't fully understand the dynamics behind it all. If a country adopts the dollar, pegs the dollar to its currency, whatever, then our economic conditions matter.
The Fed raises rates and rates rise there too. The Federal Reserve lowers interest rates, you know, and that's how you end up importing and exporting inflation or deflation, which has nothing to do with your national economy. Well, this is what's happening to a certain extent. Look, because of the proposal I made, I think it also ended up on Putin's desk.
A few days later, Lavrov came out and said, " Europe is prepared to guarantee," I mean, "Russia is prepared to guarantee that it has no interest in invading NATO." This was the crux of the report, which said: " Europe wants this. They need war because they are in economic decline." The two finance ministers of the United Kingdom and France hinted that they might need an IMF bailout.
So this is really, I think, the decisive event that is coming. Our banking system uses U.S. Treasury bonds as reserves. They don't use, you know, California bonds or anything like that. If California went bankrupt, traders would say, "Well, who's next? Oh, maybe Illinois or something." They would not attack the Treasury.
And Europe, having never consolidated its debt, is extremely vulnerable. So France ends up being pushed to the limit, what are the operators going to do ? They're going to immediately look at all the banks and who has the most French debt. They did that after Greece in 2010 , okay? And then you start short selling those banks.
So you're watching Europe's banking system collapse. The pension fund as well . Now they understand, that's clear, and it's part of why I think they're pushing for war sooner rather than later. You also just saw Russia suggest installing nuclear weapons in Cuba and Venezuela. Put your hat back on. We're talking about giving Tomahawks to Ukraine.
One of the most prominent issues emerging in global markets is the decline in confidence in centralized economic management. Businesses and capital are increasingly migrating to regions with lower taxes , fewer restrictions, and more predictable policies. Instead of addressing structural problems, many governments continue to respond with additional regulations and taxes, raising concerns about long-term competitiveness.
Historical patterns suggest that once governments expand their financial reach, those measures rarely disappear. Investors are paying close attention to increased government spending, rising tax obligations, and growing pressure on taxpayers. As these trends develop, the appeal of tangible assets, productive businesses, and geographically diversified investments may continue to strengthen.
The result could be a prolonged change in how wealth is preserved and allocated in the global economy. Now, let's get back to the interview. I think we are moving towards an environment where the dollar is losing its importance as the world's reserve currency because countries that are very powerful or have become very powerful , such as China and India and, to some extent, also Russia and Indonesia, Pakistan, etc.
All of these are countries with more than 200 million inhabitants. That's why, and because of the lack of diplomatic skills of the US government, I mean , the US freezes the assets of several countries, some of them in a totally unjustifiable way, but by freezing assets, they tell the world that if you keep your reserves, your foreign currency assets in US dollars in the US, you are vulnerable to expropriation or a freezing of your assets.
So, if you're a sizable country like China or India, you ask yourself: how do I maintain my foreign exchange reserves? And then they get to what you're suggesting here, digital assets, or, as has happened in the last 2 years, they continue to accumulate gold and silver. Correct. And I think this will make them do both.
Yes, they do both, but I mean, over time, the Chinese and the BRICS countries in general will not resolve all the trade exchanges that take place, for example, between China and India, and China and Russia, and China and Europe. They will not resolve this trade through the Swift system in the United States.
That they can liquidate it directly with...I'm not sure if it will be a digital asset or some kind of token or currency linked to gold. But it will change. That there is no reserve currency in the world that has lasted for a very long time. I mean, the Roman dinar lasted a long time, but its value continued to decline after 200 AD.
C. In my opinion, when the crisis truly hits and is devastating, I'm not sure that money can be transferred from A to B. For example, I'm not saying I 'm a model, an investor, etc., but I live in Thailand, in northern Thailand, and I have, of course, accounts in different countries around the world , and my main assets are not in Thailand or in Thai baht.
But I'm worried that one day, if I ask a Swiss bank to send, for example, $100,000 to Thailand, to my account in Thailand, they won't carry out that request. And it has become more difficult . In Europe they ask you where you're transferring the money and things like that, you know? They become unpleasant.
And that's why I keep my money in Thailand. Now, I'm not particularly optimistic about the value of the Thai baht, but I'm fairly certain that the Thai stock market offers some value. I mean, it's not the stock market that's in a bubble. On the contrary, he was a little depressed, and he came out of this depressed state in the last 6 months and this year alone it has risen more than 20% in US dollars.
So there's some valuables there, and I also keep some gold in Thailand. You know, this is an important question. If you have gold, where do you keep it? And my advice to people is that you need to diversify, keep it in different places, and there are people and organizations like my friend, he works for a company called Graydon's.
And you know, people can store gold in a relatively safe way. You can explain it in more detail than I can. But I think it's very important for someone who says, "Well, I have a billion dollars. I can live comfortably on a hundred million. So I put a hundred million into gold." It is very important that this person keeps the gold safe.
Yes. And sure, nothing is certain. You understand? Yes. Yes. If the government could come and tell you there's COVID and you need to get vaccinated and stay home, that you're not allowed to smoke in your own garden, etc. Many things can happen. I don't trust anything that has to do with the government.
Yes. And unfortunately, the quality of government officials, in general, has declined dramatically. It's terrible what government officials are like these days. And in Switzerland, we used to have a country that was relatively reasonable, to be honest. The overall picture points to a world that is going through a significant monetary and geopolitical transition.
Nations seeking greater financial independence are exploring alternatives to over- reliance on the US dollar, while gold continues to attract attention as a neutral reserve asset . At the same time, concerns about sovereign debt, persistent deficits, and political polarization are raising doubts about the sustainability of existing economic frameworks.
If the diversification of global reserves continues at the current pace, precious metals could remain one of the main beneficiaries. Gold could see increased institutional demand during times of uncertainty, while silver would gain traction through investment flows and industrial consumption. Markets are unlikely to move in a straight line.
But the long-term trend increasingly favors tangible assets over paper. Those investors focused on capital preservation, monetary trends, and global power shifts would be better positioned for the next economic phase. The coming years could be defined less by traditional growth stories and more by the search for financial security, real assets, and monetary credibilit click s for watching.
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