저자: TomLee · 외국인
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Tom Lee는 9월 첫 거래일 CNBC 출연에서 향후 8주간 조심할 것을 권고하며 조정 가능성(7~10%)을 언급. 성장(고용) 우려가 인플레이션보다 시장 반응을 주도하고, 9월 금리인하는 사실상 확정이나 고용지표가 약하면 11~12월 인하 기대가 흔들릴 수 있다고 봄. 비트코인 부진과 유가 약세를 대선 관련 트레이드 지표로 언급. 하락 후 매수 기회를 강조하되 5% 이상 조정을 기다리는 편이 나을 수 있다는 취지. 진행자는 금요일 고용지표를 핵심 변수로 꼽으며 큰 하락(서킷브레이커) 가능성을 제기.
다듬은 글
Tom Lee just issued investors a massive warning saying you should be cautious for the next 8 weeks and that markets are probably going to go into a correction take a listen to what Tom Le just said on CNBC and then we'll break it all down and put it into context for you joining us now with this call for the markets on the first trading day of September is Tom Lee managing partner and head of research at funstra Global advisors as well as a CNBC contributor and all along Tom when you've made these uh these these pre calls some of them even short term it had to do with uh with positive surprises on on inflation and is that going to be enough from here on out to to to keep the market headed higher or have we shifted to growth worries now uh I think there's probably more growth worries in in people's minds these days so the jobs reports and claims seem to have more Market reaction I think that's going to be the case in September as well I mean we have the FED meeting at sort of in the middle of the month but this week is the jobs report I'm I'm sure there's going to be a lot of focus on that right so we what kept you positive was that the numbers were always for the market they were better than than people were were thinking is that going to continue to be the case but it's no longer inflation it's Now growth so growth will continue pretty good jobs will continue pretty good you're not worried about a another growth scare like we had six weeks ago uh yes I think that there the growth scare is is what everyone's worried about because the July jobs report was kind of a shock to markets and that's part of how we had that black Tokyo Black Monday I think this jobs report for August is going to show a nice rebound for growth in jobs hopefully it's not too strong because of course as you know if it's too strong people are going to worry the FED might backpedal on a September cut so where does that leave you in terms of what is seasonal Andrew just alluded to it September's not great and we know I mean we always make lows in October or we have many many times which means usually a lot of times September was not great I think investors should be cautious for the next eight weeks you know September next eight weeks be cautious that's you're not always cautious that's right when we Market's been up seven of the eight months this year so we know it's an incredibly strong Market but we also have the September cuts and we have the election things that'll get people nervous I I think in the next 8 weeks people get a a chance to buy so I think it's good to be cautious but just ready to buy that too you have because you're fearless and you'll say anything I I I you have in the past actually talked about election related trades and Trump trades and do you see anything going on now that that indicates anything to you Bitcoin hasn't been acting very well yeah Bitcoin hasn't acted well the two things we're watching to sort of look at how election probabilities are weighed is Bitcoin and energy I think the fact that oil is being weak even with some geopolitical risks tells me I think the market is starting to bet more on a trump out Trump election but because there'd be more production more production bad for PR which is which is not necessarily the way that you might think about things because we hear about you know we're at records for for oil product and no one realized the reason we're at records in this country is because prices were so high that it caused a lot more uh Drilling and activity and the prices were high because it's harder to drill with without an LG and everything else that Biden Administration did yeah that's right so people think oil should be higher here because of for many reasons but oil's been weak so I I I would say that that's probably the mar that's China too though isn't it yeah China and China's becoming a bit more mysterious right there's even risk maybe of negative GDP there okay so uh the next and funny you said 8 weeks it's almost exact ly uh 8 weeks I think what's that it's like 63 days or so so some uncertainty and caution going into the election but in your view people should get long I think they'll get a chance to buy long yeah so I think this is one of those where investors need to be cautious but the back of their minds no this is a strong Market how far down 10% I think that 7 to 10 is possibility and we've already had two 7% Corrections this year so it's kind of it's it's been testing investors patience but I I think you know I think it should we should expect turbulence and then the question of course is when the turbulence comes is it a byy the dip always or is there going to be and by the way buy the dip at when it goes down by 2 or 3% or you really actually have to wait for a five six s% pullback I I think one or two is is just almost like daily noise this Market has shown you know pullbacks like that so I think yeah I think something like a 5% pull back is very likely but I think we need and are you waiting for that yeah I I think it you know what we'll find out this jobs report because like if it's too strong and investors worry and so the stock market's down Friday I would be buying that dip but there's a chance that we get a good job report and the Market's up I hate to sound so uh binary but I think I would just say at the bottom line is it's a strong market so I I don't think this is we've seen the top for 2024 it's just that the next 8 weeks are tougher now that that was very insightful from Mr Tom Lee but I'm going to take it a step further the only thing that matters is this Friday's jobs report and if this Friday's jobs report is really weak you could have a 5% negative day on Friday if the unemployment rate were to rise let's say the same as it did the last report going up 0.2% if we hit 42% unemployment markets are are are going to have at least a 4 to 5% down day on Friday you could actually see a circuit breaker on Friday if we get a really bad jobs report and uh higher than expected unemployment rate like that is what is on the line here and I firmly expect that no matter what happens on the positive side for the jobs report meaning it if the jobs report is really good like 200,000 plus jobs markets are going to love that if the unemployment rate Falls markets are going to love that I don't think that's going to push back on what the FED wants to do for September it could push back on some cuts for November and December but the FED has basically said either way no matter what happens at this point they're going to be cutting rates September 18th so that is a certainty I don't think even a 300,000 uh payroll number would really throw that into question it would definitely throw into question November and December but would that cause markets to fall if we avoid a session if we have a soft Landing probably not the risk is that jobs report comes in low we're expecting 164,000 jobs my definition of low would be anything under like 140 um really anything under like 100,000 jobs um you know net job ads would be really bad news and the unemployment rate is actually expected to fall from 4.3% down to 4.2% if the unemployment rate were to instead rise to let's say 45% you're going to rapidly price in recession risk into our markets and that's why I think Friday you could actually see a circuit breaker uh get triggered you could see the S&P fall 7% if the unemployment rate takes another big move higher when nobody's really expecting that it will I do also see some very troubling signs as well today concerning the economic activity and the growth concern the big one is oil oil is down 45% today which oil is influenced by geopolitical tensions by OPEC by um you know different um you know uh heads of of state if you will heads of government in the United States but the biggest thing that affects oil prices is expected demand and that comes from the economy think about um you know UPS and FedEx and all the Jets that are flying you know Commerce back and forth each and every sing day think about all the vehicles that are transporting Commerce each and every single day semi trucks think about the true uses of the most oil and gasoline in this country in the world it's not you driving your car it's it's you know trade and and commerce things of that nature that revolve around the economy so oil is actually a pretty good barometer of economic activity um especially when you see you know oil Fall 4 and A2 almost 5% a single day hey that makes me scratch my head and say is is Wall Street our investors starting to expect weaker economic activity is that why oil is down 5% today and I think this is a big red flag for any of you guys in the markets that are trying to figure out whether or not we're going to have a soft Landing or hard Landing oil today is screaming there could be some growth concerns out there today we did have the ISM Manufacturing pmis that came in at 47 .2 we were expecting 47.5 that was an improvement from last month's number of 46.8 but missed the estimates ISM Manufacturing employment came in at 46.0 we were expecting 43.6 that was the standout of this report was employment actually got better construction spending month over month fell negative 0.3% uh last month you were at 0% and the estimate was only a fall of netive 0.2% so that came in worse than expected uh manufacturing new orders came in at 44.6 we were expecting 47.7 so that's weighing um a lot on markets today is why are new orders like collapsing this this is not a good number for manufacturing new orders and then manufacturing prices came in higher than expected at 54.0 we were expecting 52.8 so the only thing positive in in positive territory for ISM Manufacturing is ISM Manufacturing prices so not only did you get you know bad bad ISM Manufacturing on the activity side the actual manufacturing side but you also got bad data from the prices or the inflationary side of manufacturing so that is definitely Weighing on markets today the big Catalyst tomorrow morning will be jolts job openings we're we're not expecting much of a movement here so last month you were at 8.18 million we're expecting 1 or 8.1 million so really only expecting about 880,000 job openings to to decline or a job opening decline of 880,000 um in in the month of July the problem will be if this comes in at like 7.5 million or 7.2 or 3 million because it's it's it's basically a barometer of economic activity if you really think about it because if companies are doing well they're going to look to hire more people if they're not they're not going to hire as many people so if companies are not doing well and they're not looking to hire as many people yes that's a bad sign for the labor market but that's also a bad sign for economic activity okay so the jolts job openings will be important tomorrow and the lower the number the worse the market reaction you would think you know job openings falling labor market getting tighter would would be good no that was good in years prior that's not good at this point so you actually want to see jol's job openings come in around the you know ex expectation uh or at least at the um bare minimum just meet expectations that would be your best case scenario and that is I expect going to cause quite a big move Thursday you do have the ADP employment change initial jobless claims ISM Services um and same thing with Services you're really expecting um a slight contraction across the board um for all of the different components of the service report so we'll see if that happens and then Friday again is really your big Catalyst of this entire month that's going to solidify you know to investors from their perspective is the Fed cutting into a recessionary economy or is the Fed cutting at just the right time to avoid a recession and that data is going to tell us just that now as I said in videos prior I'm I'm actually or I was actually expecting a a bad Tuesday Wednesday Thursday um collectively right you could have a positive day in there but overall I was expecting some riskof Behavior heading into this Friday's jobs report because markets were at all-time highs September is seasonally the worst month for stocks over the past 10 years with an average return of almost neg -3% there's not a lot of reasons to be super excited about markets heading into such an important Catalyst like like the jobs report on Friday so I expected some selling but not the S&P down almost 2% and the Nas Down almost 3% and the Russell 2000 down over 3% this is a lot of selling quickly I did talk about this trade that is um interesting it's a $9 million trade betting that the vix goes between $22.30 um by the end of September they paid $9 million with a Max potential payout of $280 million if the vix closes above 30 in September this is really expecting the markets to get worse from here you can see today their trade is doing pretty well with the vix that is soaring uh last I looked it was 18% now it's up 26.5% today the vix at $19.66 so you still need to see more of a decline from here to get the vix into a um you know 22 to 30 range and let's let's be honest if we hit 30 yeah I think markets are going to be in full-blown correction territory um at that point another interesting aspect of today is the RSP the equal weight S&P is only down 1% so there's not that much pain out there um in other areas of the markets like today could be a lot worse a lot of the pain is concentrated in big Tech nvidia's down 99% today that is insane okay now there's a lot of fears about nvidia's um you know employees there was a new note put out today that basically says from Bill uh what's his name uh Bill Blaine that there's not a lot of reasons for NVIDIA employees to hold on to their net worth uh you know being piled into Nvidia stock when a lot of The Upside has already been essentially captured um he did refer to a recent poll that found that 40% of those who worked at Nvidia had a net worth between 1 million and 20 million so almost half of your employees are rich while 37% had a net worth of over $20 million so a third a little bit over a third of employees are very wealthy or very well off that work at Nvidia what's the incentive to work harder what's the incentive to not sell your Nvidia stock and to realize and protect your financial future that's basically what this veteran um analyst or investor if you will um said today about Nvidia and that did spark a little bit more fears following nvidia's earnings that came out last week that already had a bit of a negative um reaction associated with it anyways now keep in mind this analyst he's got his own opinions he it says quote I just found my best reason to sell Nvidia confirming we're at the top of the market what might come next how about 20 years of rising inflation Rising rates and a global commodity super cycle as Nations scramble to to secure future strategic resources he added I mean is that what I'm expecting obviously not so you got to take things with a grain of salt always but this is definitely having some effect on Nvidia today and I mean the stock's down % so it's definitely dragging markets down with it other big tech stocks are down a lot as well Google's down 3 and a half% Apple's down almost three Amazon's down one Microsoft's down one and a half and meta's down about 1 and a half% as well it's really the companies that benefited the most from AI the most from Nvidia as a sympathy kind of trade that are selling off the most today Google uh you know Apple Nvidia they've all done well alongside Nvidia recently and semiconductors overall are just doing terrible today again this makes sense heading into such an important Catalyst coming Friday and I think there's there could be some more selling heading into that Catalyst if you look at the S&P um you're not in a good place if this level holds into the close yeah that that's rough because we kept finding support around $555 and and if we break under that and close under that which it looks like we're going to then you're set up for a test of that 50-day moving average around 54837 okay and uh if you don't hold there that's where you could potentially start to fall uh much lower down to 534 would be the next level that 100 day moving average and then you're just getting into a really bad place if you're under there so let me know what you think about all of you guys have a great rest of your day and I will see you in the next one
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