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시장 하락 중 소형주·경기민감주 강세 가능성 제기. 고용지표(전일제 고용 지수 -4.9) 악화에도 Fed 금리인하로 경기침체 회피 가능성 언급. JP Morgan은 9월 6일 고용지표 중요, 금리 인하 경로 열려 있으나 폭은 불확실, 10년물 3.8% 하방 베팅. Hooper는 순환주·소형주 아웃퍼폼 예상, 경기침체 확률은 1~2년 내 60~65%로 봄. 골드만은 단기 상승 편향 제시. 진행자는 장기적으로 침체 가능성 높다며 현금 비중 확대 권고.
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markets are trading lower with an underperformance of the equal weight S&P and a large underperformance of the Russell 2000 relative to the S&P on a market cap weighted basis so what's going on today I mean I was pretty shocked to see this Tom Lee share Charles Payne's post on X that says something ugly is brewing in the labor market firms report overall declines in full-time employment the full-time employment index fell 10 points to -4.9 its second consecutive negative raing and the lowest reading since May of 2020 which presumably if Tomley shared this he he's not denying that this is bad I guess the argument is the Fed will be able to stop things before they get too bad and equities will react more to the FED cutting rates supporting the economy stimulus measur rather than some weakness that you see or will see in the labor market now take a listen to this clip from CNBC it says markets not near a base case of recession despite cracks forming in the consumer says Invesco Hooper Chief Global Market strategist Christina Hooper and JP Morgan's co-head of interest rate strategy Jay Barry good to see you guys thanks for being with us morning I wonder what you make Christina of these levels the repair work we've done since the the growth scare whether these overbought levels are concerning at all right now well I don't think they're concerning at this point but it certainly has been a very rapid recovery from what I think was an overreaction and so that's how I view it um markets should never have fallen as much as they did we shouldn't have had that level of fear because the recession risk just wasn't as high uh would you somebody yesterday said it was akin to a flash crash would you go that far I know if I'd say it was a flash crash but I'd say it was a flash panic attack uh and markets quickly recovered when they saw data that showed that they were wrong and I think that's really the takeaway we still have uh behind us a very good earning season all in all and we still have a consumer where cracks are forming but we're nowhere near the base case being a recession in the near future Jay the I mean it's not just Equity prices that have gone around the block so quickly it's also odds of a 50 odds of an intermedium cut I wonder what kind of tone you think we're going to get on Friday yeah no thanks Carl I think for Friday uh we would expect chair pal to ratify expectations that the fed's on the path to lower rates because if we look at what's happened here over the last few months inflation has come down and we're expecting core pce is 2.6% in the month of July which has made the real fed funds rate even more restrictive over the past year so we think the path is open for the FED to cut but the magnitudes of those cuts we just don't think he's going to make a judgment on that particularly knowing that the labor market data on September 6th is probably going to be pretty key in influencing that decision mainly because the unemployment rate has ticked up not just to the fed's 2024 forecast but up towards its 20202 forecast as well so we've seen this big move in treasury yields adjusting to a new timeline and trajectory for fed Cuts in the wake of better inflation data and weer economic data Jay so 10 years at 3.8 where does the next big move happen is it lower or higher yeah Sarah we think that the risks are towards a bigger move to lower rates from here but now the markets are pricing over 90 basis points of cuts for this year and a Fed funds rate that returns to 3% within a relatively short period of time so to really expect treasury yields to move materially lower from here we're going to have to think the FED moves into significantly accommodative territory towards 2% um and that would be something that would take long-term yield significantly lower because but to get there don't we need a weaker economy and we were just all talking about how we don't have that weak of an economy no I think that's I think that's a totally reasonable assumption here that in order for Le yields to move lower you need to think we're in a recession and the labor market data in the form of jobless claims the retail sales data all indicate that you're not but I kind of think we're range bound here because we know that the fed's about to embark on a cutting path and that by any sort of measure of um accommodation or restrictiveness fed policy is pretty much more restrictive than it's been at any point in the last 30 years finally Christina on sector selection um we have seen some anecdotal restructuring layoff announcements last couple of weeks from some large companies do you think margins are in focus for some of these corporates and uh and what what sectors would you favor if the backdrop uh happens the way Jay describes so absolutely margins are in Focus that's critical for so many companies what I anticipate is that we do see an economic reacceleration fueled by Improvement um in in real ages as well as the start of rate Cuts although I don't think it's going to be 90 basis points this year maybe we'll get 75 and so that's enough of a catalyst in my opinion to see that economic re acceleration stocks will discount in advance of that so we're likely to see the cyclicals perform better and smaller caps perform better in this environment in my opinion that doesn't mean that Tech can't continue to hum along that's a secular growth story for many of the industries within Tech um but for me cyclical really stand out as having the potential to benefit from an economic re acceleration that last sentence was specifically encouraging to me and and hopefully to you guys because that's what I've been saying for the past week or so now is you're probably going to see cyclicals outperform you're probably going to see small caps outperform areas that bottom line benefit if the economy is not as bad as we think if the economy does not get as bad as we think and if while earnings can pick up in the rest of the markets as the FED starts to cut rates these cyclicals these high paying dividend stocks small caps become more attractive like how long do you think for an example a CVS health is going to pay a safe stable 4 and a half% dividend if the 10year treasury is 3.8% and it goes lower from here that starts to be a lot more attractive because now you can no longer get a 5% risk-free rate of return because 10year treasur are 3.8% and that's on the longer end of the curve okay that's 10 years still on the one two three six Monon treasuries you're still getting close to 5% especially I mean if if you're buying them today so as the FED does start to cut rates that's where I think cyclicals can really start to outperform and again there's the chance that we don't go into a recession that growth actually picks up and well that's when you would really want to own those cyclicals and small caps and even though I still think the odds of a recession are closer to what JP Morgan's jam diamond believes like 60 65% in the you know totality of this cycle that could be at some point in 2025 or early 2026 I think it's going to be hard to avoid an eventual recession but in the near term do I think we could get upside in cyclical small caps yes yini said something that I thought was pretty interesting today that I want to share with you it says quote not only isn't a recession headed down the pike but the US economy is emerging from the pandemic tunnel with stronger potential GDP than it had prior to the pandemic so in fact no recession but actually stronger economic activity than before 2020 I mean that's a really good setup for small caps cyclicals so on and so forth Nick Tim house writes the New York fed survey shows the share of individuals who reported searching for a job increased to the highest level in the 10year history of the survey among those with jobs the average expected likelihood of becoming unemployed also jumped to a series High Liz Young Thomas on X says dealer positioning in S&P 500 futures is near its most negative levels ever dealers generally take the opposite side of investors meaning investors are more positive not necessarily effective as a trading signal more of an indication of sentiment Ryan Dietrich on X writes zero stocks in the S&P 500 made a 10day low yesterday the last time we saw that was October 2022 and the end of that bare Market before that November 2020 after the election and then a huge rally job openings per unemployed person is now back to pre covid levels Seth golden writes on X a rally triggering overbought SL overextended conditions bullish confirmation the percentage of stocks above the 20-day moving average the fast moving average is above 80 a key threshold usually don't stay up here too long there's tactical froth in the works other indexes are not as frothy so the SPX the SNP is getting pretty overextended with this bounce back that you've seen from the 10% correction Philly feds non-manufacturing one more slumping labor market indicator for the equity Market to ignore that's commentary from Michael sari on X and you can see the Philly fed non-manufacturing employment full-time permanent employment is cratering to the lowest levels we have seen since the Roni Rona we now have the Max draw down for the conference board Lei now negative 15.3% on its way to take out draw Downs during 1970s and the 1980s again this is one of those you know indicators or signs that eventually we will get some kind of recessionary um activity in the economy yes you can say we've been in a rolling recession that first it was manufacturing then it was housing not necessarily housing prices despite multif family that is had that has you know started to really fall in value now it's the discretionary category what's next does it end there does it go into something deeper I think that will start to be the main focus of investors and that's why the consumer is in such a large Focus right now with that said Lowe's reported earnings today and they did cut their full year outlook now Lowe's is Home Depot it's really a you know a construction related company a you know Home Improvement related company so Wall Street doesn't care too much about what Lowe's has to say but tomorrow morning you get Target Macy's and TJX if target has bad things to say about the consumer that's going to put another red flag in investors Minds it may benefit Walmart because Walmart is doing great because even higher income Shoppers are choosing to shop there instead of something that is a little bit more premium or expensive like a Target like other potential out outlets and it is being reported that central banks are stacking gold at the fastest Pace in history that can't be good Goldman sacks ruer says the pain trade for US Stocks is higher he says says dip buyers ex expected in a sell-off as traders long gamma the bar for being bearish is high ruer tells clients momentum Traders and a surge in corporate BuyBacks promis to drive a US Stock rally over the next 4 weeks according to Goldman Sachs trading desk the pain trade for equities is higher and the bar for being bearish at the beach into a Labor Day barbecue party is high managing director for Global markets and tactical specialist at the bank wrote in a note ruer who correctly predicted a late summer correction and advised in late June to trim exposure in US Stocks after July 4th has turned tactically bullish saying current positioning and flows will act as a Tailwind as sellers are out of ammo the S&P 500 in NASDAQ each posted their eighth consecutive daily gain yesterday the last time such a winning streak extended to 9 days was 1992 and at the time of recording this video it's possible that could happen the S&P is only down 0.15% a bit of a tossup at this point whether we do extend into nine straight green days and this rally back has been aggressive okay and I think there is a little bit of risk heading into Jerome Powell even if we get a really good Powell even if we get a Powell that tells us everything we want to hear that markets can give some of it back just because you've rallied so much and I do think you want to buy cyclicals you want to buy small caps you want to buy stocks that will benefit if we in fact avoid a recession because they're they are trading at some pretty dang big discounts okay you don't want to squander some of these five 10 year lows you're seeing on some of these stocks if we do actually avoid a recession they're going to do very well at the same time you want to have a lot of cash too much cash on the sidelines to take advantage of any fear of any selling any recession risk or ultimate recession that we do go into and I think right now knowing there's a greater chance of a recession than than not ultimately whether that's 2025 or even 2024 I I think you have some time to prepare again if you don't think we're going into recession then then then fine you just spend all your money you know buy stocks now do what you want to do it's it's not Financial advice but I think the the risk is too high that we go into some kind of broader slowdown we're just now starting to get the consumer that is on paper pulling back that is not buying discretionary items um anymore and that's it's so new it takes time to get reflected in in the data it takes time to get reflected in GDP and for markets to get over that hump of oh crap there's a recession coming here on the day today the percent of stocks trading above the 50-day moving average is at 56.84 per.
that's okay that's pretty much neutral 50% of stocks or SO trading above their 50-day moving average it's not great it's not bad it's kind of just hanging out here we do have our major events of this week coming this Thursday with your composite PMI data your service data your manufacturing pmis um initial jobless claims some Regional fed data that comes out Thursday that's going to be important for Thursday Friday's Jerome Powell that's probably the biggest event of this week as long as the data is not really bad or really good then it's definitely going to be Powell as the main event and I think some of the selling seeing in different sectors today is related to just positioning before these catalysts your treasury yields are falling for basis points today so that's telling you markets are expecting a little bit more of a dovish pow or maybe a little bit worse of economic data CNN's fear and greed index is neutral at 45 yesterday you were in fear territory at 41 and one week ago you were at extreme fear of 2 five so t's my daughter's fourth birthday today well technically tomorrow but we're at the resort um going to go take her to the water park so that's what my day entails for the rest of the day you guys have a fantastic rest of your day and I will see you in the next one
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