저자: TomLee · 외국인
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8월 초 급락장에서 일본 엔캐리 트레이드 청산이 글로벌 급락의 핵심 원인이라고 진단. VIX 65 상회 등 극단적 공포지표를 근거로 단기 반등 가능성을 언급하나, 경제지표가 약해 중기적으로는 방어적·약세 시각 유지. 8월은 약세, 3분기 말~10월 이후 회복 기대, 하반기는 소형주 주도 강세를 전망. 금리 인하 가능성 및 이란-이스라엘 리스크도 언급.
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as the markets are currently assigning a 60% chance of an emergency rate cut this is what Tom Lee just said on CNBC today bring in Tom Lee managing partner head of research at fundr Global advisors as well as a CNBC contributor in times like this in the past it always would help to know uh Tom whether it's a a sharp scary Spike down which a lot of times uh the other side looks just like it or people are hoping for that so much that they don't see that it might have longer to go do you do you get the feeling that this is not going to be a major selloff uh for now I think it is the former that you described you know we have over 3 days suddenly markets reverse and you know Japan down over 20% and as you're pointing out the NASDAQ could even you know decline further um declines like that are generally symmetric but you have to watch the vix and when the vix Peaks and starts to roll over and fall down the recovery can be just as quick I think a lot of this depends on whether Financial conditions in the US start to tighten you know meaning like do market seiz up but with interest rates falling um you know the consumer still in pretty good shape I think on the other side of this it'll look like a growth scare but it doesn't mean that grow scare yes kind of uh interesting that it almost looks like the fed the Market's doing what the FED didn't do again it's it's almost like once again they're they're there but not really ahead of what of what's happening and they're reacting not anticipating kind of again yes on the way up and on the way down yeah the two years is signaling that the FED is behind um cuz 2-year yields have fallen further but it does seem like as we look back a lot more this is because of the surprise hike from Japan and the the the sort of knock on effects from there if that is the primary source of the reaction I know it's going to be tumultuous for markets but for the US economy it's not necessarily bad news and I think that's why we can balance some of your your great and accurate calls have been based on um inflation coming in like you thought much cooler than the market was thinking at the time I guess the flip side of that is that there can be a you know the Dual mandate there can be labor market weakness associated with why that's happening did is that was the asymmetric risk was it maybe it wasn't as maybe there was a great risk to to uh the job market well you know markets don't like surprise I mean Friday's jobs report was disappointing how far back that they go with revisions down too it almost looked like the whole story the whole narrative that we had is is suspect about that's right and I think many expected that because you know the establishment survey versus household had so many gaps um and so that's kind of converging but that means markets are waiting until August payrolls report which is not for four more weeks uh to to really know but I I would say to me it still seems like July even as a bad a report it was is more of an aberration and I think the trend is still WEA there there's a couple of things in it that people yeah there was uh almost a record number of people that were having temporary layoffs and people who weren't working due to bad weather and Texas had a big spike in jobless claim so it does look like the hurricane had some effect although the BLS said there was no effect on Thursday night one of the people at your shop said 5390 looks like a good uh S&P support do support levels mean anything and can you want to give me another one or is it just another one to go through well uh you know because it didn't hold it means that there are other support levels that could be important it might not hold yeah it could not I think that the vix is telling us watch of Vick yeah because it it spiked Friday and then it's spiking again today I mean we're the last time the vix was at this level was April 2020 so for an investor that tells us kind of where we are which is we know markets are nervous and they have to unwind but it's not been a bad time to be thinking that there is an big opportunity on the other side because once the vix starts to calm down and markets have already corrected we know that there's opportunity right I mean knowing that of course it's August as you point out you think the vix High 40s is is where it's going to Peak or low 50s I guess you know it's up 100% almost the the vix may not have a ceiling because we know next couple days there's also some geopolitical events on the horizon and Israel I and in Iran and you know we got politics here I mean that's escalating some people think well that's going to turn into a nightmare this week today I tomorrow I mean I we don't want to so I think that's why it's all coming to a head this week I mean to me it's it's a very important week because we know you it's hard to catch a falling knife as you're pointing out support levels are being broken but mortgage rates are falling the consumer in pretty good shape and you know the job market I think it's very unlikely if the knife is falling and you want you like catching falling knives I know you so the question is at what point do you catch the said knife I I spent a lot of time talking to Mark Newton our technical strategist over the weekend and I think that there is a reprieve coming this week like who knows it could even be today right we could open down huge and then after 11:00 a.m.
we could reverse higher but I kind of agree with Joe that this is still August and I think that markets traction really doesn't come back till October so between now when October it's maybe a range-bound market at best but there'll still be opportunities and it's we could call it bidia basically I mean it's just it might as well be in I mean Bitcoin what is bitcoin Gold's hitting new highs Bitcoin you know yields people look for safety they buy treasuries they buy gold people don't buy Bitcoin for safety yeah bit Bitcoin is still mostly a risk-on asset and you know there's potentially been some lots of liquidations I think several ,000 accounts liquidated over the weekend FS Insight which is fun Strat cites Tom Lee's message out today this say Equity suffer technical damage which takes time but consistent with tough August second half of 2024 still expected to gain strongly led by small caps so what's going on right now in markets just so everyone understands it is a Japanese carry trade that is imploding the world okay global cial markets are imploding this is the worst day since Black Monday for the Japanese stock market and this is a rough day for us equities as well now what a carry trade is is like Arbitrage Japanese retail investors corporations the government big money investors over in Japan they've been borrowing money in Japan with very low rates and investing that money in foreign markets now that the Japanese Central Bank is starting to raise rates Japanese investors don't like that what's happened is you're seeing this liquidation globally because of all of this money that is invested globally with a central issue that's going on in Japan so the carryover trade is like 20 trillion there can be more selling it's a real possibility there's also a potential this could lead to Jerome Powell needing to do an emergency cut think about it like this the bank of Japan they're starting to begin the process of raising rates but we're still offering a really high rate compared to Japan If the Fed does come out and takes a decisive action to lower rates that could smooth out the carry trade a little bit and potentially give the markets more stability although if the FED comes out and cuts rates that's probably not going to be good for markets in the short term we also have this Iran Israel conflict that could be having some role to play in markets as well I wouldn't be surprised if when that actual attack does happen against Israel markets may look at that as a buy the dip opportunity because you know the catalyst is over at that point but really like 95% of This Global meltdown is directly related to Japan and just to kind of show you how much fear there is out there though kisi letter on X says the volatility index the vix is now trading above 65 this was in the beginning of the trading day a level only seen two previous times in history the 2020 pandemic and the 2008 financial crisis the vix is up 550% from its July 2024 lows that is a wipe out of $5 trillion of market cap value in the SNP over the last month I will say for The Bulls Out There the SNP is almost oversold on the RSI every time you get down to this level you do get a short-term bounce okay the S&P really doesn't go overbought for an ex or or oversold for an extended period in time the Roni Rona you were overbought for a period so it is possible or oversold for a period um so it is possible that you could go oversold but historic you tend to bottom when the RSI hits about 30 good news for the Bulls today the RSI is at 31.
28 so you're basically at that level in which you should start to expect a bounce even if we don't get one I think it's best to probably start to expect one just based on kind of the historical precedence around that 30 level on the RSI now I think the bigger question is after a bounce does this lead to lower levels and that's a good argument because historically when the FED Cuts rates that's not good for markets when the economy weakens that's not good for markets and that's the direction that we are headed in Liz Young Thomas she is the head of investment strategy at Sofi one of the only stocks that is green today a matter of fact she says the twos and TS uninverted yes that briefly happened today you are back inverted 11 basis points but at one point you were briefly uninverted the Vick spiked to 65 things move fast lots of chatter about an emergency rate cut can't know yet if this is a short-term blowup or the beginning of something bigger and longer in the meantime fear begets fear and a cut doesn't quote fix it which I think is the best take on this situation we don't know if this was just a you know flash crash if you will or if this is something that could be bigger and longer drawn out like 2022 and I think that really uh comes down to the economy this unwind trade um this carry trade this that's unwinding um currently with Japan it will end at some point now does that ending lead to the Market's rebounding that's the real question and I don't have a good answer I'm still defensive kind of bearish on this Market um over the medium term because the econom is weak ing that's the bottom line but would I be loading up on puts right now after the drop that we've seen today probably not treasury yields hit a new 52 we low today but now they're not actually moving at all you're basically unchanged for your 10-year treasury yields they were down a lot more earlier in the trading day but 10-year treasury yields are sitting at 3.78% so yields have just completely plummeted the percent of stock currently trading above their 50-day moving average is getting absolutely destroyed today as well down 22% so to put this in simpler terms 11% of all stocks today are breaking below their 50-day moving average that is after I mean you have fallen big time for three days in a row okay you went from about 75% to 38% n a very short amount of time does that mean you're going to bounce soon not necessarily in and of itself but there is a lot of pain out there and normally when you get down to these levels in the 30s you do tend to see a bounce in markets keep in mind what I'm saying like I'm pretty bearish on markets generally speaking and I still think there can be a bounce here and likely will be a bounce here wouldn't surprise me if tomorrow's a positive day for markets so just you got to be nimble in this market you got to be in and out of positions I think there's going to be a lot of volatility back and forth the trend definitely looks like it's downwards but the velocity of this move is so strong that investors are going to look around and say are things really as bad as the markets are suggesting they are and I don't think the econom data is bad enough just yet to draw that conclusion this ultimately boils down to the economic data now if the FED does an emergency cut then obviously that's going to take precedence and markets will sell off because of that because why is the Fed cutting do we have a bigger problem on our hands that's the kind of mentality you get around fed Cuts especially emergency fed Cuts like that doesn't happen almost ever I do think the selling is a little extreme here in the near- term there's obvious or what we've seen over the near term there's obviously the Japan carryover trade that is directly causing that so there can be more of an unwind but I do think the buy the dip mentality appetite out there is still strong um under the surface and let's be honest Nvidia is down 6% today for that matter it's trading at $100 per share I think a lot of Institutions would love to buy Nvidia at $100 per share like how much more selling are you going to see there until the economy weakens or the AI cycle um shows that it's slowing down that it's not just straight up and you know vertical I mean these are valid arguments with that said you did bounce quite a bit today though at one point in pre-market you were getting pretty close to a circuit breaker on the NASDAQ even on the SNP you hit a low of about $57 for the Spy now you're at $519 so you've seen a little bit of that bounce even even though the S&P is still down about 2 and 1/2% at the time of recording this video it's still a rough day but it was a lot worse Ann's fear and greed indicator is in extreme fear territory sitting at 20 yesterday or I should say Friday you were at 27 this was down in the 1516 area at one point today so it's improved a little bit but still lots of fear out there Market momentum extreme fear stock price strength is greed stock price breath is fear put in call options extreme fear Market volatility extreme fear Safe Haven demand extreme fear and junk bond demand also in extreme fear Ed goldby says today if the economy deteriorates the FED will fix it like it's just that simple fed gosby says the FED will respond to conditions and fed gosby says when asked about an emergency Cut quote everything is always on the table including raises and Cuts so he did not explicitly say a emergency fed cut is coming I wouldn't expect that but he didn't deny it either that's part of the reason the markets are assigning about a 60% chance of an emergency Fed rate cut coming as soon as this week it's also being reported today that Nvidia and Taiwan semiconductor manufacturing are facing production challenges with the next generation of its AI chips according to Financial Times and this can also be having a broader impact on Nvidia and Nvidia has a broader impact on the market so again but all in all I do think a bounce to that 100 day moving average on the Spy would make a lot of sense here that's around $528 um per share this line I've had drawn here on the chart for a very long time is also important looks like you're getting a lot of resistance around that 520 level I think if we can retake that 520 level today or tomorrow that would obviously be seen as um positive constructive on a technical basis for the SNP I think time will tell this Iran Israel situation is going to be the next thing markets react to this continued kind of uh carryover trade that is unwinding um I think it's going to take some time you're seeing people getting blown up out there we we don't know how much damage has been done yet and that's the other side to this coin But ultimately I think the economic data is most important and that's what I want to personally react to okay that's what I believe justifies a potential 30 40 plus per decline but all of this other stuff it's shortterm it's shortlived and I think the selling has you know been extreme for some short lived shortterm events so from that perspective let me know your thoughts on our markets do you think we're going higher or lower I would love your perspectives Down Below in the comment section nonetheless have not done so already and if you made it to the end of this video you guys enjoy the rest of your day and I will see you in the next one
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